Group 1 - The US Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased by 0.1% in July 2025, reaching 98.7, following a 0.3% decline in June. The cumulative decline from January to July was 2.7%, significantly higher than the 1.0% drop from July of the previous year to January [1] - Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, a senior manager at the Conference Board, noted that consumer pessimism regarding business prospects and weak new orders continue to weigh on the index. However, stock prices remain a significant positive support for the LEI [1] - Despite the negative growth rate over six months, there was an improvement in July, although it is not sufficient to avoid signaling a potential economic recession. The Conference Board does not currently expect a recession but anticipates an economic slowdown in the second half of 2025, with tariffs' negative impacts gradually becoming evident [1] Group 2 - The US Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose by 0.2% in July, reaching 114.9, while remaining unchanged in June. The cumulative growth from January to July was 0.9%, surpassing the previous six months' growth of 0.6% [2] - The CEI consists of four components: non-farm employment, personal income (excluding transfer payments), manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production, which are critical indicators for assessing the risk of a recession. In July, three of these indicators improved, except for industrial production [2] - The US Lagging Economic Index (LAG) remained unchanged at 119.9 in both June and July, with a cumulative growth of 0.9% from January to July, reversing the previous six months' decline of 0.1% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting minutes indicate that the projected real GDP growth from 2025 to 2027 remains largely consistent with previous forecasts, despite some economic headwinds [1] Economic Outlook - The impact of trade tariffs is expected to manifest later and with a weaker effect, while sluggish consumer spending growth and downward adjustments in population expectations partially offset positive factors [1] - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed the natural rate by the end of 2025 and remain above that level throughout the forecast period [1]

Economic Growth Targets - The nominal GDP growth target during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is set at no less than 5.5% to ensure the achievement of the 2035 vision goal[1] - To reach the 2035 goal of per capita GDP at the level of a moderately developed country, nominal GDP growth must average at least 5.4% over the next decade[1] - The average nominal GDP growth over the past eight quarters was only 4.2%, indicating a gap from the medium- to long-term target[1] Inflation and Economic Growth - The key to recovering nominal GDP growth lies in the price level; if the GDP deflator returns to the average level of 1.7% from 2012 to 2025, nominal GDP growth could reach 6.1%[1] - The GDP deflator averaged -0.9% over the past eight quarters, with a significant negative growth in service prices, necessitating a boost in consumer demand to recover service prices[1][2] Long-term Economic Strategy - The long-term economic growth strategy consists of three levels: the highest is the "three-step" strategy, the middle is the doubling target, and the lowest is the annual growth target[1] - Achieving the doubling target requires an average annual growth rate of 4.4% from 2020 to 2035, with a projected average growth rate of 5.4% for 2021-2025[1] Risks and Considerations - Risks to achieving the 2035 goals include potential long-term appreciation of the RMB against the USD, which could enhance the dollar-denominated per capita GDP[2] - Changes in real estate, consumption, exports, and population dynamics could significantly impact future economic growth and price levels[2]

Core Viewpoint - The current monetary policy stance is deemed "appropriate" by the President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - There is heightened uncertainty surrounding inflation and immigration [1] - Signs indicate that inflation is affecting certain categories of goods [1] - The overall economic situation in the United States remains strong [1] Group 2: GDP Forecast - Actual GDP growth is expected to slow to approximately 1% by 2025 [1]