文 | 招商宏观张静静团队 核心观点 国内方面，高频数据显示Q4有效需求不足持续挤压企业盈利空间。人民币升值或暂时接近到位，此前年底结汇需求集中释放使人民 币汇率明显升值，但央行或开始有意控制汇率升值幅度，中间价破7仍需企业套保率及跨境人民币结算占比进一步提升，预计明年中 后期大概率时机成熟。 海外方面，日本央行议息会议后，近期植田和男称正稳步接近2%通胀目标，将继续加息。美国Q3经济增速超预期，其中过半为个人 消费支出项所贡献，抵押贷款利率的高位回落对地产的传导仍有时滞，但是能显著影响当期消费。 资产方面，A股权益市场配置行情延续，但短期波动或将加剧。过去两周处于海外市场交易清淡期，但静极思动，新年过后外部扰 动或将加大。目前美元兑日元仍高于155，一旦日本央行干预汇市或美联储降息预期降温，海外市场仍将对国内权益资产造成阶段扰 动。 国内方面， 1）高频数据显示2025年四季度以来有效需求不足正在持续挤压企业盈利空间，导致"以价换量"边际效应锐减。11月当月 工业企业利润增速仍在负区间运行，并且跌幅较上月再度扩大了7.6个百分点。2）人民币升值或暂时接近到位。临近年底结汇需求 集中释放推动人民币汇率明显升值 ...

·美媒称哈西特"领跑"美联储主席候选人 ·美联储"褐皮书"显示美国消费支出进一步下滑 ·新西兰联储将基准利率下调25个基点至2.25% ·欧洲央行：欧元区金融稳定脆弱性仍处于高位 ·韩国央行保持利率不变 【全球央行动态】 ·美国彭博新闻社援引知情人士说法报道，在美国总统特朗普及其顾问和盟友眼中，白宫国家经济委员 会主任凯文·哈西特是美联储下任主席头号候选人。其中一些知情人士称，哈西特被视为能将特朗普所 主张降息政策带入美联储的人。美国预测市场平台Kalshi显示，特朗普有72%的几率提名哈西特出任下 一任美联储主席。 ·美联储经济状况褐皮书显示，十二个联邦储备区中的大多数报告显示，经济活动与上一份报告相比变 化不大，但有两个区报告略有下降，一个区报告略有增长。虽然高端零售支出依然保持韧性，但美国总 体消费支出进一步下降。一些零售商指出，政府"停摆"对消费者购买力产生了负面影响。此外，制造业 和零售业出现广泛成本上涨压力，反映出关税引起的成本增加。展望未来，联邦储备区所联系的企业大 多预期成本上涨压力会持续。 ·美联储官员发言一览： 美联储理事沃勒表示，疲软的劳动力市场数据支持12月降息。他警告称，会后密集发布 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity has not changed significantly since the last report, with most districts reporting stable conditions, while two districts noted slight declines and one district reported slight growth [1] - High-end retail spending remains resilient, but overall consumer spending in the U.S. has declined further [1] - Retailers have pointed out that the government shutdown has negatively impacted consumer purchasing power [1] - There is widespread upward pressure on costs in the manufacturing and retail sectors, attributed to tariff-induced cost increases [1] - Most businesses connected to the Federal Reserve districts expect cost pressures to persist in the future [1]

Across many districts, the Beige Book found that employment "edged lower,†marking a shift from earlier reports. ...

Despite tariffs, stick to inflation, and the lack of key data, the outlook for spending remains bullish, according to the Mastercard Economics Institute. Here with us now at Post9 is chief economist of the Mastercard Economics Institute, Michelle Meyer. It's good to have you back.Welcome. >> Thank you. >> So, what do you guys expect. >> Well, exactly what you said.I mean, the consumer is still very much engaged despite all of these different headlines. They're trying to navigate relative price differentials ...

Economic Concerns - Mohamed El-Erian expresses significant concerns regarding the financial health of low-income consumers and the potential refinancing of substantial debt in the coming years, indicating these as potential pressure points for the economy [1] Low-Income Consumer Spending - Low-income households are experiencing immense financial pressure, leading to reduced spending, which could have a cascading effect on the broader economy. This group has faced rising inflation and increasing debt burdens, with inflation growth outpacing post-tax wage increases since the beginning of the year [1][2] - The total household debt in the U.S. increased by $197 billion in Q3, reaching $18.5 trillion, further exacerbating the financial strain on consumers [1] Employment Market Concerns - There are signs of weakness in the labor market, with October witnessing the worst layoff wave in over two decades. Additionally, concerns about job displacement due to artificial intelligence are growing among the workforce [1] Debt Refinancing Pressures - Both public and private sectors in the U.S. have accumulated significant debt, much of which may need to be refinanced at higher interest rates, posing risks to borrowers. This issue is particularly pronounced in commercial real estate, where a substantial amount of loans obtained at lower rates during the pandemic are maturing [3] - By the end of 2026, over $210 billion in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) related to office loans will mature, indicating potential refinancing challenges [3] Signs of Borrower Distress - There are increasing signs of borrower distress, with delinquency rates on commercial bank loans steadily rising over the past two years. Additionally, corporate bankruptcies surged to a five-year high this summer [3] Systemic Risk Assessment - Despite these pressures, El-Erian does not foresee a financial or credit crisis akin to past events, suggesting that while there may be economic "accidents," systemic shocks are unlikely. He likens the situation to "cockroaches" that appear in clusters but do not undermine the entire system [4]

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the dynamics of household balance sheets in Asian economies, particularly in relation to consumer spending and economic recovery in the Asia Pacific region [3][20]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Consumer Spending and Household Debt**: - The report argues that household debt is not a primary constraint on consumer spending. Instead, weak wage growth is identified as the main factor affecting consumption [6][20]. - It is expected that a recovery in non-tech exports starting early next year will boost wage growth, subsequently enhancing consumer spending [6][20]. 2. **Economic Conditions in Asia**: - Consumer spending has been sluggish across Asia, especially in China and India. The report suggests that limited job creation and weak wage growth are more significant issues than household balance sheet constraints [6][20]. - Trade tensions have negatively impacted non-tech exports, contributing to the slowdown in consumer spending [6][20]. 3. **Household Debt Levels**: - High household debt levels in some developed Asian economies have not led to significant declines in asset prices or deleveraging pressures [6][20]. - The report indicates that household debt as a percentage of GDP has remained stable since the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in emerging markets excluding China [20][21]. 4. **China's Economic Outlook**: - In China, retail sales growth has slowed to 3% year-on-year, the lowest since the beginning of the year, primarily due to the fading effects of consumption trade-in programs [28][30]. - The importance of real estate in household assets is emphasized, with property accounting for approximately 42% of household assets, which is significantly higher than the 21% from portfolio investments [30][34]. 5. **India's Household Debt**: - India's household debt is considered reasonable, with a ratio of 42% of GDP, which drops to 24% when excluding business loans. The report suggests that consumption slowdown in India is more cyclical rather than structural [45][46]. 6. **Developed Markets in Asia**: - In Japan, household debt has decreased to 62% of GDP, with real wage growth being a critical constraint on consumption. The report anticipates stronger real wage growth in the coming quarters [58][62]. - South Korea is experiencing weak real wage growth and political uncertainty, which has dampened consumer confidence. However, there are signs of recovery in consumption driven by government initiatives [65][66]. 7. **Real Estate Market Dynamics**: - The report highlights that in many Asian economies, household debt is closely tied to real estate markets, with housing debt constituting a significant portion of total household debt [74][92]. - In Australia, household debt is the highest in Asia at 121% of GDP, primarily driven by property debt. Despite high debt levels, the resilience of borrowers is noted [73][74]. Other Important Insights - The report emphasizes that the dynamics of the labor market are crucial for understanding consumer spending trends across the region. A recovery in non-tech exports is expected to positively impact employment and consumption [26][31]. - The report also discusses the potential for policy reforms to enhance consumer confidence and spending, particularly in the context of high precautionary savings and the need for social security reforms in China [31][34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the interplay between household balance sheets, consumer spending, and economic conditions across various Asian economies.

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman indicates a perceived weakening in consumer spending and continues to expect two more interest rate cuts by the end of the year [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is observing a decline in consumer spending, which may impact economic growth [1] - Bowman maintains the outlook for two additional interest rate cuts before the year concludes, suggesting a proactive monetary policy response [1]

Group 1 - The current U.S. economy is sending mixed signals, with strong consumer spending and AI investment contrasting with a weak job market [1][4] - Morgan Stanley's data indicates that consumer spending grew nearly 3% in the third quarter, reflecting economic resilience [4] - High-income and high-wealth households disproportionately contribute to total consumer spending, which has recently surged [7] Group 2 - AI-related capital expenditures are significant as they are less sensitive to short-term cyclical fluctuations, representing a long-term investment theme [9] - Evidence suggests a notable slowdown in job creation this year, with rising unemployment and stagnant wage growth indicating a serious labor demand slowdown [10] - Increased consumer spending is primarily focused on automobiles, driven by electric vehicle tax credits and preemptive purchases due to tariffs, which may lead to a spending pullback in the coming months [10] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve faces divergent policy paths depending on economic conditions, with strong economic resilience requiring restrictive policies and weak economic performance necessitating more rate cuts [12] - The experience from 2018-2019 indicates that tariffs have a significant negative impact on U.S. domestic manufacturing, with effects lasting over a year and a lag of about two quarters before the impact is felt [11]

Core Insights - The core inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year in August, while the core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, indicating stable inflation data [1][2] - Following the release of the PCE data, U.S. stock markets rebounded after three consecutive days of decline, with the Dow Jones up 0.65%, S&P 500 up 0.59%, and Nasdaq up 0.44% [1] - The consumer confidence index for September was reported at 55.1, the seventh lowest since records began in 1952, reflecting a pessimistic outlook among consumers, particularly among lower-income households [3] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest since mid-July, indicating a resilient labor market [1] - The second quarter GDP growth was revised up to an annualized rate of 3.8%, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.3%, driven by strong consumer spending and a decline in imports [1] - Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased by 0.6% in August, surpassing expectations of 0.5% [3] Consumer Sentiment - A significant 44% of survey respondents reported that high prices are eroding their financial situation, the highest proportion in the past year [3] - The consumer sentiment is primarily driven by high-income households, while lower-income families are struggling with rising living costs [3] - Economists predict a notable slowdown in consumer spending growth by the end of the year due to the impact of rising prices [3][4] Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue its interest rate cuts, with differing views among officials regarding the pace and extent of these cuts [2] - The wealth effect, driven by stock and housing market performance, is increasingly influencing consumer spending, posing risks if these markets experience volatility [4]