南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 据央视新闻报道，美国经济分析局9月26日公布的数据显示，美国衡量通胀的指标——个人消费支出 （PCE）价格指数8月份环比上升0.3%，同比上涨2.7%；排除食品和能源价格影响后，核心PCE价格指 数环比上升0.2%，同比上涨2.9%。 随着关键通胀数据平稳落地，美股在连跌三天后反弹，26日三大指数集体收涨。截至收盘，道琼斯指数 涨0.65%，报46,247.29点；标普500指数涨0.59%，报6,643.70点；纳斯达克指数涨0.44%，报22,484.07 点。 包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的多数官员认为，关税很可能只对物价形成一次性冲击，而不是长期推高潜 在通胀的因素。 本周早些时候，一系列具有韧性的经济数据意外让市场担忧美联储降息能否持续。 美联储本轮降息未到终点，但分歧在于降息速度和幅度，鹰派和鸽派的观点迥异。美联储票委、堪萨斯 城联储主席杰夫·施密德表示，美联储短期内可能无需再次降低利率，因为仍然需要继续降低通胀水 平。他认为当前的货币政策立场只是"略微具有限制性，我认为这是正确的立场。" 9月25日公布的数据显示，截至9月20日当周，首次申请失业救济人数下降1.4 ...

Core Insights - US consumer spending in August showed strong growth for the second consecutive month, increasing by 0.4% after inflation adjustment, surpassing the expected 0.2% [1][2] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month, maintaining a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][3][5] Consumer Spending Breakdown - The increase in consumer spending was primarily driven by goods consumption, which rose by 0.7% month-on-month, indicating strong purchasing willingness for non-essential items such as furniture, clothing, and entertainment [2][4] - In contrast, the growth in service spending was more moderate, with indications that high-income consumers continued to spend despite potential price increases due to tariffs [2][6] Inflation and Economic Outlook - Persistent inflation remains a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve, with the core PCE year-on-year growth stabilizing at 2.9%, well above the target [3][5] - The report highlighted that service costs, particularly in financial services, dining, and transportation, were major contributors to overall price increases, while goods prices showed weakness [6][8] Market Reactions - Following the data release, US stock futures showed little volatility, with the Nasdaq 100 futures maintaining a gain of approximately 0.3% [10] - The US dollar index experienced a slight decline, currently reported at 98.33 [10] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased to 4.158%, while spot gold prices increased by about $6, reaching $3755.53 per ounce [14]

Core Insights - Macy's stock has increased by 37% over the past month, but its operating performance and financial situation appear poor, with significant risks tied to economic downturns and reliance on discretionary spending [2] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Macy's reported revenue of $5.6 billion, a 4% decrease year-over-year, with net income at $210 million, down 22%, and adjusted EBITDA at $480 million, also lower than the previous year [3] - Free cash flow decreased to $120 million due to declining sales trends and increased promotional efforts [3] - The balance sheet shows $3.9 billion in debt against $800 million in cash, limiting financial flexibility [3] Valuation - Macy's trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.1, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 23.9, and has a free cash flow multiple of 17.8 compared to the S&P 500's 21 [4] Growth Trends - Over the last three years, Macy's revenues have declined at an average annual rate of -4.4%, while the S&P 500 grew at 5.3% [5] - In the past twelve months, sales fell by -3.8% from $24 billion to $23 billion, with a recent quarterly revenue decrease of -4.1% year-over-year to $4.8 billion [5] Profitability - Macy's operating income for the past year was $879 million, yielding a 3.9% margin, with net income at $558 million and a 2.4% margin, all below S&P 500 averages [6] Financial Stability - Macy's has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 124.9%, significantly above the S&P 500 average of 20.5%, and cash constitutes only 5.8% of total assets compared to the index's 7.2% [7] Economic Resilience - Macy's stock has underperformed the S&P 500 during economic downturns, with a 71.7% drop during the 2022 inflation crisis compared to a 25.4% decline in the S&P 500 [8] - During the 2020 Covid pandemic, Macy's stock fell 75.5%, while the S&P 500 experienced a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% [8] Investment Appeal - Despite low valuation, Macy's combination of weak growth and profitability makes the stock less appealing to investors [9]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. GDP growth in Q3 down by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% due to unexpectedly large expansion in the trade deficit in July [8] - The July core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.27% month-on-month and 2.88% year-on-year, aligning with previous estimates and market expectations [3] - The report highlights a significant increase in the U.S. goods trade deficit, which expanded by $18.7 billion to $103.6 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [6] Economic Indicators - Personal income in July increased by 0.4%, supported by steady growth in employment compensation, owner income, and rental income [6] - Personal consumption expenditures showed strong performance, rising by 0.5% month-on-month, slightly above Goldman Sachs' expectations [6] - The actual personal spending, adjusted for inflation, grew by 0.3%, with notable increases in goods consumption (0.9%) and a slight rise in services spending (0.1%) [6] Trade Data Analysis - The significant increase in the trade deficit was primarily driven by a $18.6 billion rise in imports, while exports saw a slight decline of $1 billion [6] - The surge in imports is believed to be a response to businesses stocking up ahead of new tariff policies set to take effect in August [6] - Notable increases in imports were seen in industrial goods and capital goods, which rose by $12.3 billion and $4.4 billion, respectively [6] Inflation and Domestic Demand - Despite the trade data being weaker than expected, core inflation and consumption expenditure data indicate that the U.S. economy is maintaining a moderate expansion [8] - The domestic final sales indicator, which measures domestic demand strength, is expected to continue showing positive growth, reflecting the underlying resilience of the U.S. economy [8]

Market Performance - US stock markets collectively declined, with major indices falling on August 30, led by technology stocks like Nvidia, resulting in a drop of over 1% for the Nasdaq index [1][2] - The closing figures were as follows: Dow Jones Industrial Average at 45,544.88, down 0.20%; S&P 500 at 6,460.26, down 0.64%; and Nasdaq at 21,455.55, down 1.15% [1][2] - For the week, the Dow Jones fell 0.19%, S&P 500 down 0.1%, and Nasdaq down 0.19%, while in August, the Dow Jones rose 3.2%, S&P 500 increased by 1.91%, and Nasdaq grew by 1.58% [1] Chinese Stocks - Despite the overall decline in US markets, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.55% [2] - Notable Chinese stocks included Alibaba, which surged nearly 13%, and Daqo New Energy, which increased by over 11% [2] - Other rising stocks included iQIYI (up over 5%) and Baidu, Huya, and JinkoSolar (each up over 4%) [2] Alibaba Financial Results - Alibaba Group reported Q1 FY2026 revenue of RMB 247.65 billion, a 2% year-over-year increase, with a 10% increase when excluding disposed businesses [3] - Net profit reached RMB 42.38 billion, marking a 76% year-over-year growth [3] - The company noted significant growth in its instant retail business, with monthly active consumers on the Taobao app increasing by 25% year-over-year [3] Inflation Indicators - The US core PCE price index rose by 2.9% year-over-year in July, indicating inflationary pressures [4][6] - The overall PCE price index increased by 2.6% year-over-year, with a month-over-month rise of 0.2% [6] - Consumer spending, which constitutes over two-thirds of US economic activity, grew by 0.5% month-over-month, reflecting consumer resilience despite rising prices [7] Oil Market - US oil prices fell nearly 1%, with WTI crude settling at $64.01 per barrel and Brent crude at $67.46 per barrel [11] - The US recorded a historic high in oil production at 13.58 million barrels per day in June, contributing to a total liquid fuel production peak of 21.1 million barrels per day [11] - President Trump indicated that oil futures prices might soon drop below $60 per barrel [12] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.20% to $3,516.10 per ounce and silver futures up by 2.64% to $40.75 per ounce [14] - Weak economic data in the US supported the rise in gold prices, with the Michigan consumer sentiment index falling below expectations [14]

Core Viewpoint - Daohe Global (00915.HK) reported a significant decline in revenue and an increase in losses for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in both trade and supply chain management services and cultural entertainment sectors [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was $15.138 million, a year-on-year decrease of 22.52% [1] - The loss attributable to shareholders was $0.920 million, compared to a profit of $0.024 million in the same period last year, resulting in a basic loss per share of $0.0006 [1] Group 2: Trade and Supply Chain Management Services - The shipping volume in this segment decreased by approximately 14.0% to about $48.10 million, reflecting clients' cautious ordering behavior due to tariff-related uncertainties [1] - Revenue from trade and supply chain management services fell by about 18.2% to approximately $7.00 million, down from about $8.50 million in the previous year, attributed to the decline in shipping volume and changes in the sales mix [1] Group 3: Cultural Entertainment Business - Total revenue in the cultural entertainment sector dropped by approximately 25.9% to about $8.20 million, down from about $11.00 million in the same period last year [1] - The revenue decline was driven by multiple challenges, including intensified competition in online claw machine platforms, oversaturation in the trendy toy industry, and ongoing trade tensions that have negatively impacted domestic consumer spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting minutes indicate that the projected real GDP growth from 2025 to 2027 remains largely consistent with previous forecasts, despite some economic headwinds [1] Economic Outlook - The impact of trade tariffs is expected to manifest later and with a weaker effect, while sluggish consumer spending growth and downward adjustments in population expectations partially offset positive factors [1] - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed the natural rate by the end of 2025 and remain above that level throughout the forecast period [1]

Group 1 - In July, U.S. retail sales showed broad growth, with a month-over-month increase of 0.5%, surpassing market expectations, and June's data revised up to a 0.9% increase [1] - Nine out of thirteen major retail categories experienced growth, with auto sales recording the largest increase since March [1] - Online retail and general merchandise stores performed well, benefiting from promotional events by Amazon, Walmart, and Target [1] Group 2 - Despite the positive retail sales report, consumer confidence unexpectedly declined in early August, raising concerns about the sustainability of retail sales momentum [2] - Economists suggest a higher likelihood of softening consumer spending in the second half of the year due to tariff uncertainties and recent employment data [2] - The July retail sales report indicated a 0.5% increase in the "control group" sales, which is used to calculate GDP, with significant growth in categories like furniture and sports goods, although some of this increase may reflect inflation [2] Group 3 - Economists noted that while July retail sales benefited from strong online shopping and auto sales, consumers reduced spending on dining and beverages, indicating a shift towards essential goods amid slowing disposable income growth [3] - Inflation data showed that businesses passed on tariff costs to consumers less than expected, but wholesale profit margins increased significantly, suggesting future direct impacts of tariffs on consumers [3] - Additionally, U.S. industrial production declined in July, indicating weakness in manufacturing output [3]

Core Inflation and Consumer Spending - The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index accelerated to a year-high in June, with a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 2.8%, indicating limited progress in inflation relief over the past year [1][3] - Consumer spending showed almost zero growth, with real consumer spending only slightly recovering after a decline in May, reflecting the weakest growth since the pandemic [1][4] Economic Divergence - There is a tug-of-war in the economy, with stagnant inflation relief and concerns that tariffs from the Trump administration may further increase prices, while a weak labor market could lead to broader economic slowdown [2] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at its fifth consecutive meeting, but two members expressed dissent in favor of a 25 basis point cut, highlighting divisions among policymakers [3] Consumer Behavior and Market Reactions - Stock index futures maintained their upward trend following the data release, while Treasury yields continued to decline, and the dollar remained stable [4] - Consumer spending growth is primarily driven by a rebound in non-durable goods, while durable goods purchases have declined for three consecutive months, indicating weak discretionary spending [4] Labor Market and Inflation Dynamics - The root of consumer weakness lies in a cooling labor market, with inflation-adjusted disposable income remaining flat after a decline in May, and wage growth nearly stagnant [7] - The June price increases were mainly driven by home goods, sports equipment, and clothing, reflecting the impact of import tariffs on consumer prices [7] - Key service sector inflation, excluding energy and housing, rose 0.2% month-over-month for the second consecutive month, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [7]

Economic Indicators - The June PCE price index in the US increased by 2.6% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.5%, with the previous value revised up to 2.3% [1] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in June, exceeding the expected 2.7%, marking the highest level since February, with the previous value also revised up to 2.8% [3] Inflation Trends - Service sector inflation is accelerating, with rising costs for durable goods also noted [4] - Prices for household goods have surged due to the impact of the trade war [6] - Healthcare costs are beginning to rise [8] Consumer Spending and Labor Market - Real consumer spending adjusted for inflation grew by only 0.1% in June, failing to reverse the decline from the previous month [10] - Durable goods spending has declined for three consecutive months, the longest downturn since 2021, while service spending remains low, indicating weak discretionary spending [10] - Real disposable income remained flat in June after a decline in May, with weak wage growth limiting consumer spending willingness [10] - The savings rate is steady at 4.5%, reflecting household caution amid economic uncertainty [10] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma with rising core inflation raising concerns, while weak consumer and labor market conditions prompt calls for interest rate cuts [12] - The Fed has maintained interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, with some members advocating for a 25 basis point cut, highlighting internal divisions [12] - Recent trade policies and potential tariffs proposed by former President Trump are viewed as risks that could further elevate inflation [12] Market Reactions - Following the data release, US stock index futures maintained an upward trend, while Treasury yields declined, and the dollar remained stable, indicating market caution regarding the Fed's policy direction [13] - The June PCE data has intensified policy divisions within the Fed, as core inflation remains above target while consumer and income growth show signs of weakness [13]