Core Insights - In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, while remaining stable month-on-month for two consecutive months [1] Group 1: Producer Prices - The producer prices in the oil and gas extraction industry fell by 8.6% year-on-year and decreased by 2% month-on-month [1] - The prices in the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries dropped by 7.8% year-on-year and decreased by 0.8% month-on-month [1] - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year price decline of 5.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [1] - The chemical fiber manufacturing prices decreased by 7.9% year-on-year and fell by 0.2% month-on-month [1] Group 2: Purchasing Prices - In September, the industrial producer purchasing prices decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, while showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [1] - The prices for chemical raw materials fell by 5.5% year-on-year and decreased by 0.4% month-on-month [1] Group 3: Year-to-Date Averages - From January to September, the average industrial producer prices decreased by 2.8% compared to the same period last year, while the industrial producer purchasing prices fell by 3.2% [1]

Group 1 - In September, Beijing's Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month to an increase of 0.1% [1] - The year-on-year decline in CPI narrowed to 0.6%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Prices of fresh vegetables and fruits increased by 8.4% and 6.2% respectively, while prices for eggs and pork rose by 3.1% and 0.3% [1] Group 2 - The prices of industrial consumer goods increased by 0.2% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline [1] - Year-on-year, the prices of industrial producers decreased by 1.4%, while the purchase prices fell by 2.1% [2] - Notably, the price of gold jewelry surged by 43.1% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in that segment [1]

Inflation Data Summary - September CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of -0.1% and previous value of -0.4%[2] - Month-on-month CPI growth was 0.1%, compared to 0% in the previous month[2] - September PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, an improvement from -2.9% previously and above the expected -2.4%[5] Price Movement Insights - Food prices increased by 0.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI increase[3] - Year-on-year, food prices fell by 4.4%, impacting CPI by about 0.83 percentage points[3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to 1% growth in 19 months[4] Market Outlook - The fourth quarter's asset performance will largely depend on risk appetite, with a potential shift from technology growth stocks to low-volatility dividend stocks[1] - A gradual decline in risk appetite is anticipated post-APEC, particularly after November[1] - Bond yields are expected to decrease in Q4 due to weakening fundamentals and potential monetary easing[1]

Group 1: Industrial Producer Price Changes - In September, the industrial producer price index showed a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, with a narrowing decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - The prices of production materials decreased by 2.4%, contributing approximately 1.81 percentage points to the overall decline in industrial producer prices [2] - The average industrial producer price from January to September decreased by 2.8% compared to the same period last year [3] Group 2: Price Changes by Category - In the category of industrial producer purchase prices, fuel and power prices fell by 8.1%, while chemical raw materials decreased by 5.5% [5] - The prices of food decreased by 1.7%, while durable consumer goods saw a significant decline of 3.9% [2][8] - The prices of non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 6.6%, indicating a contrasting trend within the industrial materials sector [5][8] Group 3: Month-on-Month Price Changes - In September, the industrial producer prices remained stable month-on-month, with production materials prices unchanged [6] - The prices of mining industries increased by 1.2%, while processing industry prices saw a slight decline of 0.1% [6] - The purchase prices for industrial producers showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, with notable increases in non-ferrous metal materials and fuel prices [6][8]

Core Insights - In September 2025, the national industrial producer's ex-factory prices decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, while remaining stable month-on-month [1] - The average industrial producer's ex-factory prices from January to September fell by 2.8% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 1: Year-on-Year Changes - In September, the prices of production materials decreased by 2.4%, contributing approximately 1.81 percentage points to the overall decline in industrial producer's ex-factory prices [2] - The mining industry saw a price drop of 9.0%, while raw materials and processing industries experienced declines of 2.9% and 1.7%, respectively [2] - Prices for living materials decreased by 1.7%, impacting the overall price level by about 0.45 percentage points, with food prices down by 1.7% and durable goods prices down by 3.9% [2] Group 2: Month-on-Month Changes - In September, the prices of production materials remained stable, with mining prices increasing by 1.2% and processing prices decreasing by 0.1% [3] - Living material prices fell by 0.2%, with food prices down by 0.1% and durable goods prices down by 0.4% [3] - Among the industrial producer's purchase prices, non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 1.2%, while fuel and power prices rose by 0.5% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in consumer prices and industrial producer prices in China, highlighting a decline in consumer prices and industrial producer prices, with specific emphasis on the impact of food prices on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the changes in various categories of goods and services [3][5][9]. Consumer Price Trends - In September 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with urban areas seeing a decline of 0.2% and rural areas a decline of 0.5% [3]. - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year, while non-food prices increased by 0.7% [3]. - The average CPI from January to September 2025 was down 0.1% compared to the same period last year [3]. Food Price Impact - In September, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.74 percentage points to the CPI decline [5]. - Specific food items such as fresh vegetables, eggs, and pork saw significant price drops of 13.7%, 11.9%, and 17.0% respectively, impacting the CPI by 0.35, 0.08, and 0.26 percentage points [5]. - Conversely, seafood prices increased by 0.9%, contributing 0.02 percentage points to the CPI [5]. Industrial Producer Price Trends - In September 2025, the industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [9]. - The average industrial producer price from January to September 2025 was down 2.8% year-on-year [9]. Price Changes in Industrial Inputs - The prices of industrial producer inputs, such as fuel and power, decreased by 8.1%, while chemical raw materials and agricultural products also saw declines of 5.5% and 5.4% respectively [11]. - In September, the prices of industrial producer outputs remained stable, with production material prices unchanged [11]. - Year-on-year, the prices of production materials fell by 2.4%, with significant declines in mining and raw materials sectors [13].

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a year-on-year decline of 2.3% in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers in September 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The average PPI for January to September 2025 decreased by 2.8% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 1: Producer Prices - In September, the prices of production materials fell by 2.4%, contributing approximately 1.81 percentage points to the overall decline in the PPI [1] - The mining industry experienced a significant price drop of 9.0%, while raw materials and processing industries saw declines of 2.9% and 1.7%, respectively [1] Group 2: Purchasing Prices - The purchasing prices for industrial producers decreased by 3.1% year-on-year in September, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The average purchasing price for January to September 2025 fell by 3.2% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 3: Consumer Prices - In September, consumer goods prices decreased by 1.7%, impacting the overall PPI by approximately 0.45 percentage points [1] - Food prices dropped by 1.7%, while clothing prices decreased by 0.3%. Conversely, general daily necessities saw a price increase of 0.7%, and durable consumer goods prices fell by 3.9% [1]

Core Insights - In September, the purchasing prices for industrial producers in China decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month, while showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [1] Group 1: Price Changes - In September, the prices of various industrial materials showed mixed trends: - Prices for non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 1.2% month-on-month - Fuel and power prices rose by 0.5% - Black metal materials prices increased by 0.4% - Conversely, prices for construction materials and non-metallic products fell by 0.6% - Chemical raw materials prices decreased by 0.4% - Agricultural and sideline products prices dropped by 0.2% - Textile raw materials prices declined by 0.1% [2] Group 2: Year-on-Year Price Changes - Year-on-year price changes for September revealed significant declines in several categories: - Fuel and power prices decreased by 8.1% - Chemical raw materials prices fell by 5.5% - Agricultural products prices dropped by 5.4% - Construction materials and non-metallic products prices decreased by 4.5% - Black metal materials prices declined by 2.9% - Textile raw materials prices fell by 1.7% - In contrast, prices for non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 6.6% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a year-on-year decline in industrial producer prices and purchase prices for September 2025, indicating a continued trend of decreasing prices in the industrial sector [1] Group 1: Industrial Producer Prices - In September 2025, the national industrial producer prices decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The average industrial producer prices from January to September 2025 showed a decline of 2.8% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Industrial Purchase Prices - The industrial producer purchase prices fell by 3.1% year-on-year in September 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The average purchase prices from January to September 2025 decreased by 3.2% compared to the same period last year [1] - In September, the month-on-month change in purchase prices showed a slight increase of 0.1% [1]

Core Insights - In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, while remaining stable month-on-month [1] - The average PPI from January to September 2025 showed a decline of 2.8% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 1: Year-on-Year Changes - The prices of production materials decreased by 2.4%, contributing approximately 1.81 percentage points to the overall decline in the PPI [3] - The mining industry saw a significant price drop of 9.0%, while raw materials and processing industries experienced declines of 2.9% and 1.7%, respectively [3] - Prices for living materials fell by 1.7%, impacting the overall PPI by about 0.45 percentage points, with food prices down by 1.7% and durable goods prices down by 3.9% [3] Group 2: Month-on-Month Changes - In September, the PPI for production materials remained stable, with mining prices increasing by 1.2% and processing prices decreasing by 0.1% [8] - Living material prices decreased by 0.2%, with food prices down by 0.1% and durable goods prices down by 0.4% [8] - In the industrial purchase price index, prices for non-ferrous metals and wires increased by 1.2%, while fuel and power prices rose by 0.5% [8]