2025年中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"置于重点任务之首，政策信号迅速传导 至资本市场，A股零售、食品饮料等消费板块近期集体拉升，反映出市场对扩内需主线的积极预期。 多位券商分析师指出，当前扩内需政策呈现"增收赋能、供给优化、精准投资"特征，相关板块正迎来估 值修复与业绩增长的双重契机。 中信建投证券宏观首席分析师周君芝认为，政策重心正从传统"刺激消费"转向"增收与供给优化"的深层 逻辑，这决定了消费机会将呈现结构性特征。"制定实施城乡居民增收计划，将直接提升居民消费能 力，利好大众消费品及普惠金融领域；释放服务消费潜力有助于文旅、康养、医疗健康、体育休闲等服 务业迎来政策与需求双重利好。"周君芝说。 数据印证了服务消费的增长活力。国家统计局数据显示，2025年11月，核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，其中飞 机票、家政服务价格分别上涨7.0%、2.4%。商务部数据显示，2025年前11个月，服务零售额同比增长 5.4%，增速快于商品零售额1.3个百分点，文体休闲服务等细分领域保持两位数增长。 "从消费升级角度看，随着居民收入提升和观念转变，国货品牌、健康医疗、文旅体验等领域进入快速 发展期； ...

Group 1 - In November, the consumer price index (CPI) in Yongzhou City decreased by 0.3% year-on-year and slightly fell by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a stable overall price level in the food market [1] - Among eight categories of goods, prices showed a "four rises and four falls" pattern year-on-year, with other goods and services leading the increase at 15.8%, while transportation and communication prices fell by 2.0% [1] - Month-on-month, the price changes among the eight categories displayed a "three rises, three falls, and two stable" pattern, with other goods and services rising by 1.7% [1] Group 2 - Fresh food prices showed variability, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 5.5% month-on-month, while pork prices declined, and beef, chicken, and duck prices remained stable [2] - Non-food prices experienced a slight decrease of 0.2% month-on-month, primarily due to a 0.3% drop in service prices influenced by seasonal declines in travel demand [2] - Energy prices fell by 1.2% month-on-month, reflecting the downward trend in international oil prices, with domestic gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy maintained a stable state in November 2025, with obvious structural improvements, but the endogenous momentum needs to be consolidated, and the recovery trend remains to be observed. The report maintains the judgment that the economic growth rate in 2026 will still be positive, with a possible pattern of being lower in the first half and higher in the second half [4]. - In the equity market, market sentiment may continue to improve, and the market may show a volatile upward trend. In the bond market, volatility may increase, and it is not recommended to buy at the bottom in the short term. In the commodity market, the differentiation intensifies, and attention should be paid to gold, copper, and aluminum priced internationally [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview of the November 2025 Economy - The economy maintained a stable state with obvious structural improvements, including the continuous recovery of CPI, prominent economic kinetic energy switching, strengthened export competitiveness, high - level production, steady growth of industrial enterprise profits, and highlights in service consumption [5]. - The endogenous momentum needs to be consolidated, and the recovery trend remains to be observed. The "subsidy withdrawal" effect has a significant impact, economic data still needs trend improvement, the endogenous growth momentum needs to be strengthened, and real estate still has a certain drag on the economy [6]. 2. Interpretation of November 2025 Economic Sub - item Data - Manufacturing PMI increased slightly, and service PMI declined. The new order index was the main contributor to the increase in PMI. The PMI of high - tech manufacturing was above the boom - bust line. The service business activity index was below the boom - bust line for the first time since September 2024. The construction industry PMI improved [7][8]. - Fixed - asset investment continued to decline under the drag of real estate. Real estate development investment dragged down the growth rate of fixed - asset investment by 3.4 percentage points. In the future, the drag of real estate on fixed - asset investment is expected to shrink, and infrastructure investment may stabilize, while manufacturing investment should focus on emerging directions [9]. - Service consumption had highlights, while commodity consumption was highly differentiated. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased slightly. Service consumption, such as catering, maintained growth, while commodity consumption, such as automobiles and home appliances, declined due to the "subsidy withdrawal" effect [10]. - Exports showed strong resilience, with prominent structural highlights and a steady expansion of the surplus. In November, the export growth rate rebounded. The exports to Africa performed outstandingly, and the product structure was optimized. Exports are expected to be a major bright spot in the economy in 2026 [11][12]. - Real estate sales continued to bottom out. The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year, and the market was still in the process of destocking. The prices of commercial residential buildings in large and medium - sized cities declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [13]. - The production end remained stable. In November, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries grew faster than the overall level [14]. - At the price end, CPI continued to rise, and PPI was stable and waiting to rise. In November, CPI increased year - on - year, and PPI increased month - on - month. Consumption - end prices showed a recovery trend, and production - end prices were characterized by differentiation [14]. - In November, the overall social financing was stable, and credit increased less year - on - year. Government bond financing supported the growth of social financing, while the demand of the resident sector was weak, and the demand of the enterprise sector improved marginally [18]. - The profits of industrial enterprises increased steadily. From January to October 2025, the cumulative profit growth rate of large - scale industrial enterprises increased for three consecutive months. In the future, policies are expected to promote the growth of industrial enterprise profits [19][20]. 3. Future Economic Outlook - Overseas, the main narrative is the soft landing of the economy, but there are still uncertainties in the structure. The US economy is expected to maintain a positive trend, but there are risks such as the differentiation between the real and virtual economies, the widening wealth gap, and the differentiation between AI and non - AI investments [21]. - At the domestic policy level, in 2026, the macro - policy will be more proactive. Fiscal policy will be more positive and pay attention to robustness and sustainability, and monetary policy will be moderately loose, with possible reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [21]. - In terms of the economy, the economic growth rate in 2026 is expected to be lower in the first half and higher in the second half. The endogenous recovery momentum of domestic demand needs to be consolidated, and exports are expected to perform well [22]. 4. Investment Suggestions - Equity market: In the short term, the market may show a volatile upward trend. Investors should focus on sectors with positive event catalysts, sectors benefiting from the recovery of the equity market, sectors benefiting from the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the supplementary rise of the large - consumption sector [24]. - Bond market: The volatility of ultra - long bonds may increase, and it is not recommended to buy at the bottom in the short term. Attention should be paid to the expected term of fiscal bond issuance and the adjustment of the risk assessment indicators of large banks [25]. - Commodity market: The differentiation intensifies. For precious metals, the long - bull foundation of gold remains. For crude oil, the price trend may continue to be weak. For internationally priced non - ferrous metals, the price is in a medium - term upward channel. For commodities priced by the domestic fundamentals, the prices of relevant "anti - involution" varieties will enter a wide - range volatile trend [26].

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year in November, the highest since March 2024, driven primarily by a reversal in food prices from a decline to an increase [2][4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months [2][4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% but a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, indicating a mixed price environment influenced by seasonal demand and macroeconomic policies [4][5] Group 2 - Food prices shifted from a 2.9% decline to a 0.2% increase, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 14.5% after nine months of decline, significantly impacting the CPI [2][3] - Service prices and industrial consumer goods prices increased by 0.7% and 2.1% respectively, contributing positively to the CPI [2][4] - The demand for coal and gas increased seasonally, leading to price rises in related industries, with coal mining prices up by 4.1% [4][5] Group 3 - Emerging industries such as new materials and intelligent technology are driving price increases in related sectors, with prices for external storage devices rising by 13.9% year-on-year [5][6] - Consumer demand is being revitalized through targeted actions, with prices in sectors like arts and crafts rising by 20.6% [5][6] - The government plans to enhance domestic demand and consumption through various initiatives, especially as the year-end approaches, which is traditionally a peak consumption period [7]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year in November, the highest since March 2024, driven primarily by a reversal in food prices from a decline to an increase [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months [2] - The increase in CPI was influenced by seasonal price rises in services and industrial consumer goods, with household appliances and clothing prices rising by 4.9% and 2.0% respectively [2][4] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, with the decline attributed to high comparison bases from the previous year [4][6] - Seasonal demand increases in certain domestic industries, such as coal and gas, contributed to the month-on-month price rise in PPI [4] - New industries, including new materials and intelligent technology, are driving price increases in related sectors, with prices for external storage devices rising by 13.9% year-on-year [6] Group 3 - To stabilize price levels and promote reasonable price recovery, there is a need to continue expanding domestic demand and optimizing market competition [7] - The upcoming year-end and early-year period is seen as a crucial time for consumer spending, with plans for various promotional activities to enhance consumption [7] - Looking ahead to 2026, policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices, particularly in service sectors such as dining, accommodation, and health services [7]

CPI同比涨幅扩大 国家统计局数据显示，11月份，居民消费持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比略降0.1%，同比上 涨0.7%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国内部分行业供需结构优化、国际大宗商品 价格传导等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降2.2%。 二是新兴产业快速发展，带动相关行业价格同比上涨。随着我国新材料、具身智能等行业的快速发展和 绿色低碳转型的深入推进，相关行业需求增加，外存储设备及部件价格同比上涨13.9%，石墨及碳素制 11月份，CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟表示，CPI同比涨幅扩大，主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动。食品价 格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨0.2%，对CPI同比的影响由上月下拉0.54个百分点转为上拉0.04个百分点。 其中，鲜菜价格由上月下降7.3%转为上涨14.5%，为连续下降9个月后首次转涨。鲜果价格由上月下降 2.0%转为上涨0.7%，牛肉和羊肉价格涨幅均有扩大，猪肉和禽肉类价格降幅均有收窄。能源价格下降 3.4%，降幅比上月扩大1. ...

Group 1 - In November, Beijing's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - The prices of fresh vegetables and fruits rose by 21.9% and 0.6% respectively, while pork and eggs saw declines of 15.1% and 12.1% [2] - Industrial consumer goods prices increased by 1.6%, with a growth rate increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, while gold jewelry prices surged by 60.8% [2] Group 2 - Month-on-month, Beijing's CPI shifted from a 0.4% increase in October to a 0.2% decrease in November [1] - The price of fresh vegetables rose by 12.0%, an increase of 8.1 percentage points from the previous month, while accommodation and travel service prices fell by 9.8% and 8.3% respectively [1] - In November, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers in Beijing decreased by 1.3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month [2]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends - In November, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly decreased by 0.1% month-on-month but increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month [1] - The rise in CPI year-on-year was primarily driven by a shift in food prices from a decline to an increase, with food prices changing from a decrease of 2.9% to an increase of 0.2%, impacting CPI by approximately 0.04 percentage points [1] - Fresh vegetable prices saw a significant turnaround, increasing by 14.5% after a 9-month decline, contributing an additional 0.49 percentage points to the CPI [1] Group 2: Core CPI and Industrial Prices - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months [2] - Service prices and industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, increased by 0.7% and 2.1%, respectively, contributing approximately 0.29 and 0.53 percentage points to the CPI [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month but decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with the decline attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year [2] Group 3: Industry-Specific Price Changes - The "involution" competition in key industries has shown improvement, with price declines in coal mining, photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing narrowing over several months [3] - Emerging industries such as new materials and intelligent technology are driving price increases, with external storage devices and components rising by 13.9% year-on-year [4] - Consumer demand has been effectively released, leading to price increases in related industries, such as a 20.6% rise in the manufacturing of arts and crafts and ceremonial goods [5]

Core Insights - In November, Nanjing's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% year-on-year, with the CPI standing at 100.4 [1] - Food prices decreased by 1.2%, while non-food prices rose by 0.7% [2] - Month-on-month, the CPI fell by 0.3%, with food prices down by 1.2% and non-food prices also declining by 0.2% [1][3] Year-on-Year Summary - Among eight categories, five saw price increases while three experienced declines, with clothing, household goods and services, education, culture and entertainment, healthcare, and other goods and services rising by 2.1%, 1.6%, 2.2%, 2.5%, and 15.9% respectively [2] - Food and tobacco prices decreased by 0.8%, housing by 0.6%, and transportation and communication by 2.5% [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] Month-on-Month Summary - In November, three categories saw price increases while five experienced declines, with clothing, healthcare, and other goods and services rising by 1.2%, 1.2%, and 0.5% respectively [3] - Food prices fell by 1.2%, with fresh food prices down by 2.4%, including declines in fresh vegetables, pork, freshwater fish, shrimp and crab, and eggs by 1.1%, 2.1%, 4.0%, 4.7%, and 1.5% respectively [3] - Non-food prices shifted from stable to a decrease of 0.2%, with industrial consumer goods prices remaining stable, while gasoline and diesel prices fell by 2.3% and 2.4% respectively [3]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [2][3] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by a shift in food prices from decline to increase, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 14.5% after a nine-month decline [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating stable inflationary pressure [2][3][8] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking the second consecutive month of growth, influenced by seasonal demand increases in certain industries [4] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline slightly widening compared to the previous month, primarily due to high comparison bases from the previous year [4][5] - The prices in sectors such as coal mining and gas production saw significant month-on-month increases due to seasonal demand, while oil-related sectors experienced price declines [4][5] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are showing results, with price declines in key industries narrowing, indicating improved market competition [5][6] - Emerging industries are driving price increases in related sectors, with notable growth in new materials and intelligent technology, suggesting a positive trend for future pricing [6][8] - The potential for moderate price recovery is anticipated, supported by stable domestic demand and effective policy measures aimed at boosting consumption [7][8]