证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 05 日 洽洽食品（002557.SZ） 24 年顺利收官，Q1 成本拖累盈利承压 消费品/食品饮料 公司 25Q1 收入/归母净利润分别同比-13.8%/-67.9%，春节错期与高基数影响， 经营阶段性承压，25 年公司加大葵瓜子、坚果的新渠道开拓、sku 扩展，推进 海外市场葵花籽、坚果、花生及魔芋等产品推广，期待后续利润率环比改善。 考虑到原材料成本影响，我们调整 25-26 年 EPS 预测分别为 1.41/1.59 元，对 应 25 年 16x，下调至"增持"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、原材料价格上涨超预期、需求不及预期、产能利 用率偏低、食品安全问题等。 增持（下调） 当前股价：23.18 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 506 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 505 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 11.7 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 11.7 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 11.2 | | ROE（TTM） | 12.1 | | 资产负债率 | 40.2% | | 主要股东 | 合肥华泰集 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 100 yuan [1][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.127 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.485 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue reached 4.050 billion yuan, a 7.3% increase year-on-year, while net profit for the same quarter was 438 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 22.8% [6][7]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.600 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 395 million yuan, down 10.01% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10.15 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 297 million yuan, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.1% for 2024 [6][7]. - The company is focusing on practical adjustments and actively building momentum, with expectations for revenue recovery driven by new products and channels despite external demand pressures [6][7]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 15.127 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 8.2% for 2025, reaching 16.368 billion yuan. The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 1.522 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.5% [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 5.06 yuan, with projections of 5.19 yuan for 2025, 5.71 yuan for 2026, and 6.39 yuan for 2027. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 15, 14, 13, and 12 respectively [7][8]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 23.3%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points. The net profit margin was recorded at 9.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. Product and Market Performance - The company’s revenue from various product categories showed mixed results in 2024, with the rice and flour segment declining by 3.1%, while frozen prepared foods and dishes grew by 11.4% and 10.7% respectively. The company’s hot pot ingredients experienced significant growth, particularly in vacuum-sealed packaging [6][7]. - The company’s sales channels also demonstrated varied performance, with distribution channels increasing by 8.9%, while supermarkets and e-commerce channels saw declines of 2.4% and 2.3% respectively. The new retail channel showed a remarkable growth of 33% [6][7]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth varied across regions, with Northeast China growing by 7.0%, North China by 5.4%, East China by 6.4%, South China by 9.1%, Central China by 7.4%, Northwest by 13.5%, and Southwest by 14.4% [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 100 yuan [1][6]. Core Views - The company has shown a pragmatic adjustment in its operations and is actively building momentum for future growth. Despite short-term pressures, the strategic optimization and new product launches are expected to gradually improve the company's fundamentals [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 15.127 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.485 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue reached 4.050 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3%, and the net profit for the same quarter was 438 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 22.8% year-on-year [6][7]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.600 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 395 million yuan, down 10.01% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10.15 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 297 million yuan, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.1% for 2024 [6][7]. Product and Channel Performance - The company’s revenue from various product categories in 2024 showed mixed results: - Noodle and rice products decreased by 3.1% - Frozen prepared foods increased by 11.4% - Dishes grew by 10.7% - Agricultural and sideline products fell by 11.7% [6][7]. - In terms of distribution channels, revenue from distributors increased by 8.9%, while supermarkets, direct sales, and e-commerce saw declines of 2.4%, 4.5%, and 2.3% respectively. The new retail channel showed significant growth at 33% [6][7]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth varied across regions in 2024, with the following year-on-year increases: - Northeast: +7.0% - North China: +5.4% - East China: +6.4% - South China: +9.1% - Central China: +7.4% - Northwest: +13.5% - Southwest: +14.4% [6][7]. Profitability Metrics - The company maintained a gross margin of 23.3% in 2024, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for the year was 9.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin remained at 23.3%, but the net profit margin was 11.0%, reflecting a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year due to increased promotional efforts and a decline in average sales prices [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to recover growth through new products and channels, despite ongoing external demand pressures. The introduction of high-quality, mid-priced products for B-end customers and premium products for C-end customers is anticipated to drive revenue recovery [6][7]. - The EPS forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 5.19, 5.71, and 6.39 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth in Q1 2025, driven by new product launches and effective channel strategies, despite facing some pressure on gross margins and net profit margins [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 383 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.23% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 50 million yuan, up 16.25% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 44 million yuan, reflecting a 25.80% increase [1]. - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 27.08%, down 4.35 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability [3]. Product and Channel Analysis - Revenue from poultry products, livestock products, vegetable products, and others in Q1 2025 was 325 million, 29 million, 21 million, and 0 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 47.18%, 20.83%, and -19.14% [2]. - Online and offline channel revenues were 24 million and 352 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 88.00% and 35.90% [2]. - The Southeast region showed significant growth with revenues of 210 million yuan, up 151.18% year-on-year, attributed to the popularity of new products in Sam's Club [2][4]. Cost and Expense Management - The company improved its cost control, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 8.88%, 3.13%, 0.28%, and -0.02% respectively, showing a decrease in expense ratios [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 13.14%, down 2.60 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items was 11.38%, down 1.22 percentage points [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects a revenue growth of no less than 20% in 2025, supported by successful product launches and a strong partnership with Sam's Club [4]. - The product pipeline includes various items such as boneless duck feet, vegetarian options, and pig skin jelly, indicating potential for future growth through innovation [4]. Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards to 1.474 billion, 1.742 billion, and 1.997 billion yuan respectively, while EPS estimates have been slightly lowered to 0.45, 0.54, and 0.61 yuan [5]. - Based on the closing price of 13.5 yuan per share on April 25, the PE ratios are projected at 30, 25, and 22 times for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating [6].

2025年，深圳国际会展中心（宝安新馆）迎来了一场盛大的礼业盛会——第33届中国（深圳）国际礼品·工艺品·钟表及家庭用品展览会（简称"深圳礼品家居 展"）。此次展会不仅规模宏大，占地面积达24万平方米，更吸引了超过4500家海内外优质展商，携带着100万+热门展品，为全球买家提供了一场覆盖全场 景、全产业链的商贸盛宴。 作为亚洲领先的礼业采购盛会，深圳礼品家居展以"文化赋能、精准对接、绿色创新、数字驱动"为核心主题，吸引了预计超过30万人次的专业观众前来参 观。展会现场，各类礼品、工艺品、钟表及家庭用品琳琅满目，涵盖了文创设计、消费电子、智能家电、缤纷食品、户外休闲、健康个护、品质家居等30余 个热门品类，全面满足了积分兑换、商务礼赠、员工福利、企业定制等多元化营销场景的需求。 展会期间，众多知名品牌和新锐品牌纷纷选择深圳礼品展作为新品首发平台。宜家家居、暴龙BOLON、海尔、乐视等知名品牌，以及FKeeL纷刻、东方文 礼、航空文创等新兴品牌，都在展会上高调发布了他们的当季新品。其中，宜家家居带来的隐藏式家居产品，以其创新生活情趣的设计，吸引了众多观众的 目光。 展会还特别邀请了马来西亚、香港、慈溪家电、高阳 ...

事件： 特别申明： 报告摘要 点击注册小程序 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 周黑鸭发布2024年年报，2024年全年实现收入24.51亿元，同比下滑10.66%，实现归母净利润0.98亿元，同比 下滑15.03%。其中24H2实现收入11.92亿元，同比下滑10.34%，实现归母净利润0.65亿元，同比增长371.96%。 优化低效门店，注重门店质量 发布日期： 2025-04-11 免责声明 查看完整报告 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营的官方唯一订阅号。其他任 何以光大证券研究所名义注册的、或含有"光大证券研究"、与光大证券研究所品牌名称等相关信息的订阅号均不是光大证 券研究所的官方订阅号。 分品类看，2024年公司鸭及鸭副产品/其他产品/特许经营费实 ...