这是自民党自1955年成立以来取得的最好成绩。不出意外，高市早苗将继续担任首相，日本政坛将再次 呈现自民党一党独大的格局。 综合研判，笔者认为，自2025年10月21日就任日本第104任首相以来，高市早苗面临两项挑战，隐藏着 三种冲动。目前她已基本跨越第一个挑战，剩下的挑战和冲动更加复杂和凶险。 两个挑战是"政、经"，三个冲动是"宪、核、台"。 所谓政，指的是本届日本政府（政权）的天然缺陷——议会席次未能过半。高市早苗就任之际，执政联 盟自民党和日本维新会在众议院共有232个议席，距离议席过半只差1席。虽是一席之差，却对高市早苗 的执政形成了强大的掣肘。高市早苗的个人支持度处于高位，大幅度领先自民党的支持度，这让她下决 心赌一把。2026年1月23日，高市早苗决定解散众议院，2月8日重新选举。她当时表态，如果重新选举 之后的众议院自民党席次不足，她将辞去首相职务。 2026年2月8日是日本首相高市早苗的高光时刻。 这一天，在日本众议院选举中，高市早苗领衔的日本自民党获得316个议席。日本众议院共有465个议 席。此次选举之前，自民党在众议院仅有198个议席。此次选举后，自民党的议席不仅大幅度过半，甚 至达到了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Japanese election results indicate a significant victory for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party, with implications for political stability and policy direction in Japan, particularly in foreign relations with China and the United States [1][2]. Group 1: Election Results and Implications - The ruling coalition of the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party has secured 273 seats, with expectations to surpass the critical threshold of 310 seats in the House of Representatives [1][2]. - Four key seat thresholds are identified: 233 for government continuity, 243 for a stable majority, 261 for an absolute stable majority, and 310 for constitutional amendment capabilities [1]. Group 2: Political Strategy and Leadership - The term "political gamble" is used to describe the election strategy, where leaders seek voter support to legitimize their policies amid challenges [5]. - High-profile political figures, such as former UK Prime Minister Theresa May, illustrate the risks of early elections, contrasting with the successful gamble of Prime Minister Kishi, who capitalized on unexpected timing and popular policies [6]. Group 3: Policy Focus and Challenges - High's policies, including a $135 billion economic stimulus and a two-year suspension of an 8% consumption tax on food, have garnered public support but face criticism for lack of detail and practicality [7][9]. - Key challenges for the new administration include stagnant wages, a weak yen, and rising living costs, which may quickly diminish the initial electoral victory's momentum [9]. Group 4: Foreign Relations Outlook - The election outcome may provide an opportunity for High to improve relations with China, as Japan's economy is closely tied to China's supply chain [10]. - In contrast, relations with the U.S. may strengthen, particularly in military cooperation, as High aims to enhance Japan's defense capabilities and constitutional amendments regarding the Self-Defense Forces [10][11]. - The future of Japan-China relations will hinge on High's approach to Taiwan, with potential for improvement or deterioration based on her stance on Taiwan-related issues [11].

（来源：直新闻） 直新闻：明天日本众议院将举行选举，结果将事关首相高市早苗的政治前途。您的主要观察点有哪些？ 特约评论员 刘和平：其实，当前日本国内几乎所有的民调都显示，在这次众议院选举中，自民党与日本维新会组成的执政联盟跨过半数门槛应该不是问 题。这也就意味着，本次选举的看点与悬念，已经不再是高市早苗率领的执政联盟，会不会赢的问题，而是在于赢多少的问题，尤其是在于他们会不会赢 得超过三分之二的压倒性席次。 我认为后者才是高市早苗突然宣布解散国会重新举行大选的真正目的与动机。一旦执政联盟的席次跨过了三分之二的绝对多数门槛，那就不仅意味着接下 来高市早苗的执政可以彻底摆脱在野党的制衡，而且三分之二的门槛也是接下来高市早苗能否推动修改日本"和平宪法"的生死线。或者说得更直白一点， 假如执政联盟跨过了三分之二的门槛，不仅意味着高市早苗修宪已经摆脱了来自国会的障碍，而且这背后还有可能暗含着，有超过三分之二的日本民意开 始支持修宪。 我想这就是高市早苗在这次选举过程当中，不仅将自己的首相宝座押上了赌桌，而且扬言一旦取得压倒性胜利，就会将日本自卫队写入"和平宪法"第九条 的原因。所以，从这个角度上来看，这次选举不仅事关高 ...

日本首相高市早苗近日声称有意将自卫队写入宪法。5日，在日本东京，部分日本民众在首相官邸前举行集会，反对执政党推动修改宪法的企图。 集会参加者：日本一直明确称将"放弃战争"写入了宪法，我认为也应该以此为基础来制定外交战略，去和周边国家建立良好的关系。我当然不希望扩军，可 实际上日本政府已决定，从2027年1月开始，要以提高所得税等方式，来增加防卫费。这确实对日常生活造成了影响，为了所谓"防卫"而增税，这一点让我 感到很反感。 集会参加者：高市早苗真正想改变的，说到底就是宪法第9条以及创设所谓的"紧急事态条款"，我认为这两个是成套的。所谓"紧急事态条款"，就是一旦内 阁宣布进入紧急状态，就意味着可以不断限制民众的权利。她要通过"紧急事态条款"来限制舆论，然后发动战争。 此前，日本自民党和维新会曾就修改日本宪法第九条和创设紧急事态条款进行讨论。参与集会的民众表示，高市政权企图通过修改宪法来发动战争，这是不 能被允许的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent protests in Japan against Prime Minister Kishi's remarks on Taiwan highlight significant public concern regarding Japan's military expansion and its impact on Sino-Japanese relations [2][3]. Group 1: Protests and Public Sentiment - A gathering organized by the "Inheritance and Development of the Murayama Statement" in Tokyo condemned Prime Minister Kishi's remarks on Taiwan, asserting they severely damage Sino-Japanese relations and escalate regional tensions [2]. - Participants, including former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, criticized Kishi's statements as a deviation from the Japan-China Joint Statement, emphasizing that Taiwan is an internal matter for China [2][3]. - Local citizens expressed that Kishi's remarks pose a significant danger and reflect a serious historical misunderstanding, labeling them as a provocation against China [3]. Group 2: Political Implications - The protest leaders indicated that Kishi's statements serve as a pretext for Japan's intervention in the Taiwan Strait, influenced by extreme right-wing factions within the ruling party [3]. - Kishi's recent decision to dissolve the House of Representatives and call for early elections is viewed as an attempt to solidify his political base to further his militaristic agenda [4]. - Concerns were raised that if Kishi aligns with other right-wing parties to secure a two-thirds majority in the Diet, it could lead to dangerous constitutional amendments, particularly regarding Japan's pacifist constitution [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Consequences - The deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations is expected to have severe economic repercussions, including a decline in Chinese tourists to Japan and potential disruptions in key material imports [6]. - Analysts warn that ongoing populist policies could push Japan towards economic collapse, with the depreciation of the yen and rising long-term bond rates exacerbating the situation [6].

"我们注意到上述消息。"林剑表示，二战期间，日本军国主义给地区和世界带来了深重灾难。《开罗宣 言》《波茨坦公告》和《日本投降书》等具有国际法效力的文件，明确了日本作为战败国的国际义务， 这也是日本重返国际社会的政治和法律前提。正因如此，日本修宪问题一直受到国际社会和亚洲邻国高 度关注。 "我们敦促日方深刻反省侵略历史，倾听国内民众和平反战的声音，坚持走和平发展道路，以实际行动 取信于亚洲邻国和国际社会。"林剑说。 文/本报记者 董鑫 日本首相高市早苗近日声称有意将自卫队写入宪法。对此，外交部发言人林剑昨日表示，中方敦促日方 深刻反省侵略历史，倾听国内民众和平反战的声音，坚持走和平发展道路，以实际行动取信于亚洲邻国 和国际社会。 当日例行记者会上，有记者问：本周早些时候，日本首相高市早苗在竞选活动上称，她有意修改宪法以 明确承认日本自卫队。民调显示，高市早苗有望获得多数席位。高市本人也毫不掩饰其想要加强日本军 事力量的意图。中方认为这对中国和本地区意味着什么？ ...

林剑表示，我们注意到了上述消息。二战期间，日本军国主义给地区和世界带来了深重灾难。《开罗宣 言》《波茨坦公告》和《日本投降书》等具有国际法效力的文件，明确了日本作为战败国的国际义务， 这也是日本重返国际社会的政治和法律前提。正因如此，日本的修宪问题一直受到国际社会和亚洲邻国 的高度关注。 2月4日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。有记者就日本修宪提问。 （总台央视记者 申杨） 我们敦促日方深刻反省侵略历史，倾听国内民众和平反战的声音，坚持走和平发展道路，以实际行动取 信亚洲邻国和国际社会。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Singapore Airshow showcases significant Chinese aerospace advancements, with the J-10C and J-35A aircraft drawing considerable attention, highlighting China's growing influence in the global aviation market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The 10th Singapore Airshow commenced on the 3rd of this month, featuring over a thousand companies from more than 50 countries, with an expanded exhibition area [2]. - The Chinese Air Force's August 1st Aerobatic Team made a notable return after six years, performing complex maneuvers with the J-10C fighter jet [2][3]. - The J-35A model was prominently displayed, alongside commercial aircraft like the C919 and C909, marking a significant presence of Chinese-made aircraft at the event [1][4]. Group 2: Aircraft Performance and Features - The J-10C demonstrated advanced maneuverability and operational capabilities, which are critical in modern aerial combat scenarios, including beyond-visual-range engagements [3][8]. - The J-35A is characterized as a multi-role stealth fighter with capabilities for air, ground, and naval operations, emphasizing its advancements in stealth, information technology, and automation [4][15]. - The C919 is positioned as a potential market leader in Southeast Asia, being the only single-aisle jet to perform at the airshow this year, aiming to capture a larger market share in the region [3][8]. Group 3: Market Implications - The J-35A is viewed as a cost-effective alternative to the F-35, with optimistic export prospects due to China's stable international relations and the aircraft's fully indigenous development [5][15]. - The Asia-Pacific region is projected to experience the fastest growth in air travel, driven by China and India, with passenger volumes expected to increase by 7.3% by 2026 [3][8]. - The C909 aircraft has already been operational in Indonesia, Laos, and Vietnam, with over 20 routes established, indicating a successful entry into the regional aviation market [3][8].

本报记者 徐可越 ●王 辉 日本第51届众议院选举将于本月8日投计票。据《日本经济新闻》2日报道，日本首相、自民党总裁高市 早苗当日明确表达修改宪法、将自卫队写入条文的意愿。由于日本宪法第九条第 2 款规定日本"不保持 陆海空军及其他战争力量，不承认国家交战权 "，高市上述修宪言论引发舆论的猛烈批评。 据报道，高市2日在新潟县上越市为众议院选举开展应援演说时表示，"为了维护他们（自卫队）的尊 严，并巩固其作为一支强大力量的存在，希望允许我们进行理所当然的宪法修改。"高市表示，为了推 进修宪讨论，执政党需要增加众议院席位数量，并赢得国会宪法审查会会长的职位。 对于高市的修宪图谋，中道改革联合（由立宪民主党和公明党组建的新党）的联合党首野田佳彦2日 称："我将坚持'无核三原则'，必须建设不再度引发战争、不被卷入战争的国家。" 隶属日本共产党的东京都北区议员山崎泰子3日发文批评称，若自民党赢得选举多数席位，将强行推进 军事大规模扩张、重新审视"无核三原则"并修改宪法。她呼吁道："是时候正视自民党的违宪政治路线 了，他们竟然容忍解禁集体自卫权的行为，我们必须采取以宪法为基础、守护和平与人权民生的政治立 场。" 中国国 ...

0:00 当地时间19日，日本首相高市早苗表示，将于23日解散众议院。日本学者表示，高市早苗上台以来，不仅公然发表错误言论，同时通过渲染战争危机，大幅 增加防卫费，推进修改"和平宪法"，右倾化日趋严重，令人担忧。 新潟国际情报大学国际学部教授 佐佐木宽：她认为只要强硬表态"绝不撤回"，国民就会支持她，无能的政客靠战争来维持权力，有能力的政治家创造和 平，遗憾的是虽然高市是日本首相，但她是通过战争以及煽动战争来维持权力，所以我认为她是无能的。 佐佐木宽还指出，在物价持续上涨、民众生活压力不断加重的背景下，高市政权却决定解散众议院，将重心放在政治博弈和权力运作上，这种罔顾民生、只 考虑自身政治盘算的做法，使日本政治的未来走向令人深感忧虑。 新潟国际情报大学国际学部教授 佐佐木宽：内阁成立三个多月 ，实际上她还什么都没有做。如果今后以经济政策为中心，却看不到什么成果，那么她的支 持率很可能会迅速下降。现在党内基础薄弱，又是参众两院的少数执政党，在这种情况下，她只能拼命吸收社会舆论的右翼及不安情绪，勉强维持权力。为 了维持她自己的权力，可能在自民党内部也没有充分沟通，几乎是她个人决定解散众议院，连自民党的国会议员们都 ...