日本央行加息的背景、展望及影响 主题研究团队 祁宗超 侯苏寒 zongchao.qi@nomuraoi-sec.com SAC执证编号：S1720522050003 suhan.hou@nomuraoi-sec.com SAC执证编号：S1720520020001 2025年12月22日 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 目录 ◼ 一、日本央行货币政策正常化：加息背景与展望 （通胀目标接近实现、日元贬值压力与"高市经济学"的掣肘） 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 ◼ 二、日元套息交易：规模演变、趋势及驱动因素 （本次加息与 2024 年 7 月底加息后套息交易反转冲击的比较） ◼ 三、日本财政可持续性：利率上升对政府债务的影响 （"积极但负责"财政政策的含义及长短期财政压力的差异） ◼ 四、日本金融系统稳定性：金融机构日债浮亏的潜在担忧 （金融机构核心盈利能力增强及央行货币政策职能不受影响） 一、日本央行货币政策正常化：加息背景与展望 日银12月议息会议：如期加息，未提及中性利率 日本央行政策利率变化趋势 日本国债利率走势 资料来源： Wind ，野村东方国际证券 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 3 ◼ 日本央行政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates by 25 basis points, reaching a 30-year high of 0.75%, amidst a divergence of opinions between the central bank and the government regarding the necessity of further rate hikes [3][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - On December 19, the BOJ raised rates to 0.75%, marking a significant increase [3]. - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated a gradual approach to future rate hikes, contingent on sustained inflation [3]. - There is a notable disagreement with the government, particularly from former BOJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Takeda, who advocates for a cautious approach to rate increases, emphasizing fiscal policy over monetary tightening [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the rate hike, the Japanese yen briefly strengthened against the US dollar, driven by investors repatriating funds [5]. - However, due to Japan's high debt levels, the yen may revert to a weaker position in the long term, with UBS predicting the USD/JPY exchange rate could test 160 by 2026 [5]. - The market's reaction to the rate hike was less severe than in 2024, attributed to three factors: high market expectations, reduced short positions in the yen, and a misalignment in monetary policies between the US and Japan [6]. Group 3: Impact on Global Markets - The Japanese stock market showed a mixed response, with financial stocks benefiting from increased net interest margins, while export stocks faced pressure from yen appreciation [6]. - The US and European markets are experiencing a pullback in high-value tech stocks due to capital outflows, although historical data suggests the S&P 500 tends to rise in the months following a BOJ rate hike [6]. - The liquidity in the bond market is tightening, with potential repatriation of Japanese investments in overseas bonds leading to increased yields on US and European bonds [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Attention will be on Governor Ueda's future statements, particularly if he signals a hawkish stance regarding further rate hikes in 2026, which could lead to market volatility [9]. - For the A-share market, domestic economic recovery and policy outlook remain crucial, with historical trends indicating limited impact from the BOJ's rate hike [9]. - The current rate hike is viewed as a "ripple" rather than a "tsunami," suggesting that while short-term fluctuations are expected, global markets are likely to remain resilient [9].

2025.12.18 本文字数：1953，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 潘寅茹 题图 |新华社 在外界屏息静待日本央行年前最后一次议息会议前，高市早苗政府又一次发出了不同声音。 17日，日本央行前副行长、高市早苗政府政策小组委员若田部昌澄（Masazumi Wakatabe）警告称，日 本央行应避免过早加息和过度收紧货币政策。 日本央行将召开年内最后一场货币政策会议（来源：新华社资料图） 分歧 若田部昌澄表示，日本当务之急是通过财政政策和增长战略提高中性利率。他主张，只有在中性利率因 政策驱动而上升后，日本央行加息才顺理成章。 分析认为，若田部昌澄上述表态的核心观点在于重新定义加息的先决条件。背后的逻辑则是"高市经济 学"政策框架的体现。他还表示，高市的经济主张虽然带有"安倍经济学"的成分，但重心更加着眼于强 化经济的供应面。 外界认为，这一表态不仅凸显了高市早苗政府更加强化所谓的"高市经济学"，同时又一次使得政府与央 行就加息问题的矛盾浮出水面。 18~19日，日本央行将召开年内最后一场货币政策会议。今年年初，日本央行将利率上调至 0.5%，创下 2007年2月以来最大的加息幅度。此后，日本央行一直 ...

作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 题图 | 新华社 在外界屏息静待日本央行年前最后一次议息会议前，高市早苗政府又一次发出了不同声音。 17日，日本央行前副行长、高市早苗政府政策小组委员若田部昌澄（Masazumi Wakatabe）警告称，日本央行应 避免过早加息和过度收紧货币政策。 外界认为，这一表态不仅凸显了高市早苗政府更加强化所谓的"高市经济学"，同时又一次使得政府与央行就加息问 题的矛盾浮出水面。 2025.12. 18 本文字数：1953，阅读时长大约3分钟 17日，高市密集阐述了其财政愿景。她强调，日本现在需要做的是通过积极的财政政策来增强自身能力，而不是过 度紧缩财政政策。她勾勒了带有浓厚高市色彩的财政刺激发展路径：刺激经济改善企业利润，进而借由薪资增长提 分歧 18~19日，日本央行将召开年内最后一场货币政策会议。今年年初，日本央行将利率上调至 0.5%，创下2007年2 月以来最大的加息幅度。此后，日本央行一直按兵不动。 日本央行将召开年内最后一场货币政策会议（来源：新华社资料图） 若田部昌澄表示，日本当务之急是通过财政政策和增长战略提高中性利率。他主张，只有在中性利率因政策驱动而 上升后，日本央 ...

高市早苗政府与日本央行就加息问题的矛盾又一次浮出水面。 在外界屏息静待日本央行年前最后一次议息会议前，高市早苗政府又一次发出了不同声音。 17日，日本央行前副行长、高市早苗政府政策小组委员若田部昌澄（Masazumi Wakatabe）警告称，日 本央行应避免过早加息和过度收紧货币政策。 分歧 若田部昌澄表示，日本当务之急是通过财政政策和增长战略提高中性利率。他主张，只有在中性利率因 政策驱动而上升后，日本央行加息才顺理成章。 分析认为，若田部昌澄上述表态的核心观点在于重新定义加息的先决条件。背后的逻辑则是"高市经济 学"政策框架的体现。他还表示，高市的经济主张虽然带有"安倍经济学"的成分，但重心更加着眼于强 化经济的供应面。 但值得注意的是，日本央行此前一直避免把"中性利率"估值作为指引未来加息路径的主要沟通工具。日 本央行解释称，未来的加息决策将取决于观察过去的利率上调如何影响银行贷款、企业融资条件以及其 他广泛的经济活动，以此来判断下一次行动的时机。 对于通胀前景，若田部昌澄持温和看法，这也是他反对急于加息的依据之一。他解释道，随着能源和食 品成本的涨势趋缓，日本的通胀可望放缓，甚至可能跌破2%。他认为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) regarding monetary policy is becoming apparent, with calls for caution against premature interest rate hikes [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Strategy - Former BOJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Takeda warns against early rate hikes, emphasizing the need to raise the neutral interest rate through fiscal policy and growth strategies first [1][2]. - Takeda's comments reflect a shift towards "Kishida Economics," focusing on strengthening the supply side of the economy, which is a departure from previous policies [2]. - The market anticipates a rate increase to 0.75% at the upcoming BOJ meeting, marking the first hike since January, with all surveyed analysts expecting a rate increase this month [1]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Emphasis - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida outlines a vision for fiscal policy that prioritizes economic stimulation over austerity, aiming to enhance corporate profits and household incomes through strategic fiscal spending [3]. - Kishida's approach is designed to create a sustainable fiscal policy and social welfare system, countering market concerns about fiscal discipline [3]. - The consensus among economists indicates a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the BOJ's December meeting, reflecting strong market expectations [3]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Takeda holds a moderate view on inflation, suggesting that as energy and food costs stabilize, inflation may slow down and potentially fall below 2% [2]. - Concerns about aggressive fiscal expansion leading to market turmoil, similar to the "Truss Shock" in the UK, are dismissed by Takeda, who argues that Japan's fiscal situation is currently sound [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of Prime Minister Kishi's statements regarding Taiwan as a "survival crisis" for Japan, suggesting a significant shift in Japan's defense posture and foreign policy, diverging from previous administrations' approaches [2][5][6] Group 1: Political Context - Kishi is influenced by former Prime Minister Abe and aims to continue his policies, but the political, economic, and social environment in Japan has drastically changed since Abe's tenure [1][4] - Kishi's conservative ideology seeks to regain support from right-wing voters, reflecting a departure from Abe's cautious diplomatic stance towards China [5][6] Group 2: Defense and Foreign Policy - Kishi's declaration regarding Taiwan could allow the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to engage in military action alongside U.S. forces, marking a significant policy shift [2][5] - The statement contradicts Japan's previous official stance of maintaining ambiguity regarding "survival crisis" situations, indicating a more aggressive defense posture [5][6] Group 3: Historical Parallels - The article draws a parallel between Kishi's situation and that of Napoleon III, suggesting that Kishi's actions could lead to unintended consequences if not carefully managed [3][6] - The potential for Kishi's government to be influenced by extreme right-wing opinions could result in unpredictable outcomes, moving beyond mere political farce [3][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant depreciation of the Japanese yen under the new Prime Minister, indicating that the economic policies being implemented are more about political survival than sound economic management [2][12]. Economic Policy - The economic strategy termed "Kishida Economics" involves excessive borrowing for stimulus and maintaining low interest rates, with Japan's debt reaching 260% of its GDP [4][9]. - The government continues to issue bonds, with the total amount reaching 21 trillion yen, while the central bank is pressured to maintain a zero interest rate and increase monetary easing [4][9]. Currency Depreciation - Following the election of Prime Minister Kishida, the yen depreciated by 5%, with the exchange rate against the US dollar hitting 155.37 and against the euro falling below 180, marking the weakest levels since the euro's inception [4][7]. - The depreciation of the yen is not benefiting exports as expected, with Japanese export orders declining for 44 consecutive months and manufacturing PMI dropping to 48.2, indicating a contraction [7][9]. Debt and Inflation - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds surged to 1.8%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, while the 40-year bond yield reached a historic peak of 3.747% [7]. - Core CPI in Japan has exceeded the 2% target for 36 months, leading to a situation where prices rise but wages do not, effectively eroding the purchasing power of the populace [10][12]. Political Implications - The article suggests that the current economic policies are driven by political interests, with the government prioritizing short-term performance metrics over long-term economic stability [10][12]. - The reliance on monetary expansion and debt accumulation is characterized as a dangerous gamble, with the potential for severe consequences if international capital withdraws or if public patience runs out [12][13].

Economic Background - Japan's economy is experiencing a mild recovery under persistent re-inflation, contrasting with the deflationary stagnation faced by former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo[8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth peaked at 4% in 2022, driven primarily by high food and energy prices, with inflation remaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% target[9] - Domestic demand has been the main driver of GDP growth, contributing over 1 percentage point to actual GDP since Q3 2024, while external demand has weakened due to tariff impacts[13][19] Policy Outlook - The new Prime Minister, Takashi Sanae, aims for an "expansionary but responsible fiscal policy," with expectations of a rising fiscal deficit ratio in 2026, constrained by debt risks[30] - Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with the Bank of Japan likely to raise interest rates by 30-50 basis points in 2026, despite a cautious stance[35] - Strategic investments in 17 key industries, including AI and semiconductors, are planned to stimulate growth over the next five years[30] Market Impact - The "Takaichi Trade" has emerged, characterized by rising Japanese stocks and weakening yen and bonds, with expectations of a bullish stock market and bearish bond and currency outlook for 2026[40] - The Nikkei 225 index has seen a 26% increase from January to November 2025, driven largely by technology stocks, which contributed approximately 70% of the gains[49] - Japanese government bonds are expected to face upward yield pressure due to ongoing fiscal expansion and reduced demand from domestic and foreign investors[40] Risks and Challenges - The government faces significant political pressure, limiting the effectiveness of policy implementation, as the ruling coalition lacks a majority in the Diet[39] - External shocks, particularly from U.S. tariff policies, are likely to continue impacting Japan's export sectors, especially in automotive and electronics[22][25] - Input inflation remains a challenge, potentially constraining consumer spending and complicating wage growth dynamics[20]

Macroeconomic Overview - The current economic backdrop for Japan under Prime Minister Kishi is characterized by moderate recovery amidst ongoing re-inflation, contrasting with the deflationary stagnation faced by former Prime Minister Abe [3] - Kishi's economic strategy emphasizes demand-side management to combat external inflation while also pursuing structural supply-side reforms to stimulate new growth sectors [3] Fiscal Policy - Kishi plans to implement an "expansionary but responsible fiscal policy," with expectations of an increase in Japan's fiscal deficit ratio by 2026, although the overall expansion may be limited due to debt risks [3] Monetary Policy - Despite a dovish stance, the Bank of Japan is expected to continue raising interest rates in 2026, with a potential increase of 30 to 50 basis points, while also slowing the pace of balance sheet reduction [3] Industrial Policy - Kishi aims to enhance strategic investments in 17 key industries over the next five years, focusing on sectors such as AI, semiconductors, shipbuilding, quantum technology, biotechnology, aerospace, and cybersecurity [3] Market Impact - The "Kishi trade" observed in October indicates a strengthening of Japanese stocks, while the yen and Japanese bonds weaken, with expectations of a bullish stock market and continued upward pressure on bond yields [4] - The yen is projected to remain under pressure in the short term, with a potential for slight appreciation if U.S. dollar credit declines [4] Automotive Industry - The wholesale prices of passenger vehicles have stabilized in October, with an average discount rate of 18.5%, reflecting a shift from price competition to refined operations in the domestic market [7] - Traditional fuel vehicles maintain a high average discount rate of 26.3%, while new energy vehicles show a more stable discount rate of 12.8%, indicating a dual advantage in cost control and market demand for new energy products [7][8] Investment Fund Trends - As of October 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in China is 36.02 trillion yuan, with a net outflow observed in stock and bond funds, while money market funds saw an increase [12] - Individual investors' risk appetite has been affected by market volatility, leading to a decline in shares of ordinary stock and mixed funds, while QDII and FOF funds have gained traction as safe-haven investments [13] - Mixed FOF products have performed well, with a 63.10% increase in new issuance, as they provide a balance of risk and return for retail investors [14]