品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-04-02 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2505 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱震荡 | 上方均线压制，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2505 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强震荡 | 原油维持强势，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱震荡 核心逻辑：经历一个月下跌，前期利空影响已消化。随着国内下游车市需求继续回暖 ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The stock index is likely to experience short - term shock adjustment after continuous upward oscillations, with a short - term weakening trend in operation [2]. - Iron ore should be viewed with a shock mindset [5]. - Glass should be viewed with a shock mindset, despite improved spot sales and optimistic market sentiment, actual demand remains to be observed [8]. - Alumina should be viewed with a slightly bullish shock mindset as the current price is close to the cost line [11]. - Caustic soda is expected to bottom out and rebound as it may face a short - term supply - demand mismatch from late March to April [14]. - Soybean No.1 will experience low - level shock consolidation after a short - term sharp decline [17]. - Rapeseed oil will be in a short - term shock pattern [20]. Industry - Specific Summaries Stock Index - After continuous upward oscillations, it has entered a "fatigued" state. Fundamentally, listed companies are in the intensive annual report disclosure period, and some funds seek risk - avoidance. Technically, the MACD has a high - level death cross, indicating a need for further adjustment [2]. Iron Ore - It closed with a small positive line today. There is a large long - term supply intensity, and attention should be paid to the actual start of downstream demand as the traditional peak season approaches. Technically, the indicators show a double death cross [5][6]. Glass - Recently, some production lines have been cold - repaired again, and spot sales have improved. With the influence of policies, market sentiment is optimistic, but actual demand remains to be observed. Technically, the indicators show a double golden cross, and it closed with a negative line today [8]. Alumina - The average production cost in the alumina industry is 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the current price is close to the cost line [11]. Caustic Soda - With strong exports, many future maintenance expectations, and a strong basis, the futures 05 contract may be oversold. Alumina device production is going smoothly, and short - term demand for caustic soda is not bad. From late March to April, there will be a peak of caustic soda device maintenance, and it may face a short - term supply - demand mismatch [14]. Soybean No.1 - The成交 rate of a 160,000 - ton soybean auction yesterday was low. There are rumors that the customs clearance time for imported soybeans has been accelerated, and the small amount of soybeans from grass - roots farmers supports the soybean price. Technically, the MACD and short - term moving averages show a death cross [17]. Rapeseed Oil - China has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and meal. After the short - term emotional release, the market returns to the supply - demand situation, and domestic inventory pressure remains high. Technically, the MACD and short - term moving averages show a death cross [20].