Core Viewpoint - The Euro to USD exchange rate is experiencing a narrow fluctuation, influenced by the contrasting economic data from the Eurozone and the US, with upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes and non-farm payroll data expected to be critical for future direction [1][2] Fundamental Analysis - Eurozone's October harmonized CPI decreased to 2.1% year-on-year, while core inflation remained stable at 2.4%, leading the European Central Bank to pause interest rate hikes and maintain a neutral dovish policy, resulting in a lack of support for the Euro [1] - The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims data indicating a softening, which strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts; however, a 1.4% month-on-month increase in August factory orders mitigates downward concerns [1] - The resilience of the US dollar index is attributed to global stock market sell-offs that have triggered safe-haven demand [1] Technical Analysis - The Euro to USD exchange rate has retreated from a high of 1.1918, with a mild rebound from a low of 1.1468, currently consolidating around 1.1530; key support levels are at 1.1541 and 1.1468, while resistance levels are at 1.1700 and the 1.1654-94 cloud area [2] - MACD indicates a reduction in downward momentum, and RSI shows a slight recovery, but the ADX below 16 suggests a weak trend, indicating potential for continued fluctuation before data releases [2] - Future movements will depend on three main variables: US economic data, the recovery strength of the Eurozone, and global risk sentiment; short-term trading may remain within the 1.1468-1.1700 range, with a stable position above 1.1600 potentially targeting 1.1655-1.1700, while a drop below 1.1541 could lead to a decline towards 1.1468 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The euro has depreciated against the US dollar, reaching a low of 1.1498 USD on November 4, marking the lowest level since August 1 [1]. Summary by Categories - **Currency Performance** - The euro to US dollar exchange rate has fallen to 1.1498 USD, indicating a significant decline in value [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe are suppressing the euro's outlook while increasing demand for traditional safe-haven assets, particularly the US dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve's persistent hawkish stance supports the strength of the dollar, with officials suggesting that interest rates need to remain at current levels longer than previously expected [1] - In contrast, the Eurozone is facing a significant slowdown in business activity, with recent PMI data confirming contractions in both manufacturing and services [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted a cautious tone, indicating substantial downside risks to economic growth, which exacerbates downward pressure on the euro [1] - The widening divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the US is creating fundamental imbalances, further supporting the dollar [1] - Overall fundamentals continue to favor the dollar, suggesting further downside potential for the euro against the dollar [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis shows that the EUR/USD pair is forming a narrow consolidation range around 1.1600 after a significant downward move, indicating the potential for a third wave of downward trend [4] - A decisive break below this consolidation range could signal a resumption of bearish momentum, with an initial target of 1.1488 [4] - The MACD indicator confirms this bearish technical outlook, with its signal line remaining below the zero line and pointing downward, indicating ongoing selling pressure [4] Group 4 - The one-hour chart indicates that a downward move has completed at 1.1576, followed by a pullback to 1.1620, outlining the current consolidation area [6] - A breakout from this range could trigger a short-term pullback to 1.1655 before resuming a broader downward trend, targeting 1.1500 [6] - Conversely, a break below this range would directly trigger bearish fluctuations, with a target of 1.1488, marking the completion of the first phase of the third downward wave [6] Group 5 - The combination of fundamental support for the dollar and the deteriorating outlook for the Eurozone maintains a bearish bias for the EUR/USD pair [7] - The currency pair appears to be pausing within a broader downward trend, with a break below 1.1600 potentially triggering the next leg down, targeting 1.1488 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank's report indicates that the euro may weaken in the coming months if market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) rise [1] Monetary Policy - The ECB has shifted to a dovish stance, with market pricing suggesting the possibility of a rate cut as early as December, particularly as inflation remains below the 2% target [1] - If price pressures continue to remain subdued, additional rate cuts may occur in 2026 [1] Economic Challenges - The euro faces multiple headwinds, including US tariff threats impacting eurozone exports and growth, as well as internal challenges such as political uncertainty in France and delays in German fiscal disbursements due to bureaucratic processes [1] Currency Forecast - Standard Chartered forecasts that by the second quarter of 2026, the EUR/USD exchange rate will decline from the current level of approximately 1.17 to 1.13, driven by ongoing growth concerns and policy divergence [1]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) is down by -0.02%, influenced by positive comments from ECB President Lagarde which strengthened the euro and negatively impacted the dollar [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown is bearish for the dollar, with potential negative implications for the US economy if prolonged [1] - The US September NFIB small business optimism index fell -2.0 to 98.8, below expectations of 100.6, indicating weaker small business sentiment [3] Group 2: US-China Trade Relations - The US-China trade conflict has escalated, with China sanctioning five US units of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean Co., reflecting ongoing tit-for-tat measures [3] - The trade tensions have broader implications for the global economy, as vessels are responsible for over 80% of international trade [3] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Outlook - The euro is up by +0.10% after recovering from early losses, supported by ECB President Lagarde's optimistic remarks about the Eurozone economy [4] - The German October ZEW expectations of economic growth survey rose +2.0 to 39.3, although this was weaker than the expected 41.1 [5] - Political uncertainty in France, with a potential no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Lecornu, is putting pressure on the euro [5]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar continues to strengthen, reaching a two-month high, with significant movements in various currency pairs, indicating a robust dollar performance in the forex market [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Movements - The US dollar index has risen above the 99 mark, marking a two-month high [1]. - The euro is trading around 1.1600 against the dollar, maintaining its lowest level since August 25 [1]. - The USD/JPY pair has reached the 153 mark, showing continued upward momentum [1]. - The AUD/USD has declined, falling below the 0.6600 level [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Insights - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes reveal internal divisions among officials, suggesting a cautious approach to further rate cuts this year [2]. - The Bank of England's financial policy committee warns that a sudden shift in market perception of the Fed's independence could lead to a sharp revaluation of dollar asset prices [2]. - The European Central Bank officials express confidence in current interest rates, indicating no immediate need for further guidance, while acknowledging the potential for one more rate hike [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - A Reuters survey indicates that 17 out of 20 economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lower the cash rate to 2.25% in November [2]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a mid-term global economic growth rate of approximately 3%, lower than the pre-pandemic rate of 3.7% [4].

Group 1 - The euro has depreciated by 0.4% against the US dollar, currently trading at 1.1658 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro has appreciated against the US Dollar, increasing by 0.52% to a current rate of 1.1752 on September 24 [1] Summary by Categories - Currency Movement - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate has risen by 0.52% [1] - The current exchange rate stands at 1.1752 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is trading lower against the US Dollar, currently around 1.18, as the market digests mixed PMI data and focuses on the future policy direction of the European Central Bank (ECB) [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI rose slightly to 51.2, matching expectations of 51.1, indicating the fastest expansion in the private sector in 16 months [1] - Service sector growth exceeded expectations, while the manufacturing sector returned to contraction, underperforming forecasts [1] - France's data was disappointing, whereas Germany outperformed market expectations [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policy - The ECB has recently indicated that the rate-cutting cycle may be over, highlighting ongoing inflation risks related to tariffs, services, food prices, and fiscal policies [1] - Market attention is shifting towards upcoming speeches from ECB and Federal Reserve officials for further guidance [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Euro to Dollar Bollinger Bands show a middle band at 1.1685, upper band at 1.1780, and lower band at 1.1591, with the current price at 1.1792 slightly above the upper band [2] - A further breakout could target the upper wave high of 1.1829 and the psychological level of 1.1900 [2] - The MACD indicates a positive but not overheated momentum, with DIFF at 0.0030, DEA at 0.0021, and a column at 0.0018, all above the zero axis [2]

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing increased attractiveness as a safe-haven asset, with its value significantly rising this year, potentially leading to further gains and a breakthrough of key levels, which may stimulate market demand for it [1] Group 1: Euro to USD Exchange Rate - As of September 24, the euro to USD exchange rate is trading around 1.1798, down 0.11% from the previous close of 1.1811 [1] - The euro has risen from 1.0125 to 1.1918 this year, reflecting market concerns over trade tensions [1] - If the euro continues to trade below the 1.1800 level, it may trigger technical selling, pushing prices down to the mid-term support level of 1.1730-1.1725 [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The rise in gold prices indicates that investors are seeking hedges against various risks this year, with the euro being perceived as a safer option than gold due to its status as the second-largest reserve currency [1] - A sustained buying breakthrough in the 1.1870-1.1880 range could confirm a short-term bullish outlook for the euro, paving the way for the exchange rate to reach the psychological level of 1.2000 [2] - The mid-term resistance level to watch is around 1.1950, which could impact the euro's trajectory towards 1.2000 [2]