Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing increased attractiveness as a safe-haven asset, with its value significantly rising this year, potentially leading to further gains and a breakthrough of key levels, which may stimulate market demand for it [1] Group 1: Euro to USD Exchange Rate - As of September 24, the euro to USD exchange rate is trading around 1.1798, down 0.11% from the previous close of 1.1811 [1] - The euro has risen from 1.0125 to 1.1918 this year, reflecting market concerns over trade tensions [1] - If the euro continues to trade below the 1.1800 level, it may trigger technical selling, pushing prices down to the mid-term support level of 1.1730-1.1725 [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The rise in gold prices indicates that investors are seeking hedges against various risks this year, with the euro being perceived as a safer option than gold due to its status as the second-largest reserve currency [1] - A sustained buying breakthrough in the 1.1870-1.1880 range could confirm a short-term bullish outlook for the euro, paving the way for the exchange rate to reach the psychological level of 1.2000 [2] - The mid-term resistance level to watch is around 1.1950, which could impact the euro's trajectory towards 1.2000 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Danske Bank analysts suggest that the US dollar may experience a short-term rebound due to the Federal Reserve's unlikely aggressive rate cuts, although it is expected to weaken in the long term [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Short-term Outlook**: Analysts believe that the dollar has room for a short-term rebound as the Federal Reserve is not expected to implement aggressive rate cuts as the market anticipates [1] - **Long-term Outlook**: Despite the short-term potential, the dollar is projected to remain weak in the long run [1] - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The market expects consecutive rate cuts in October and December, but analysts advocate for a "gradual rate cut" approach, predicting another cut in December [1] - **Euro to Dollar Forecast**: Danske Bank forecasts that the euro will rise to 1.23 against the dollar over the next 12 months, supported by factors such as the interest rate differential between Europe and the US and a recovery in the European market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from UniCredit Bank's investment research institute indicate that the euro to dollar exchange rate is unlikely to rise significantly further as the market has already priced in the interest rate expectations of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Expectations** - The forward rates for the year 2026 have incorporated expectations that the European Central Bank will maintain interest rates unchanged and that the Federal Reserve will implement a reduction of approximately 150 basis points [1] - **Target Exchange Rates** - The analysts have set the target exchange rate for the euro to dollar at 1.20 for Q4 2025 and 1.23 for Q4 2026 based on their latest baseline scenario forecast for the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Insights - The euro has risen to its highest level since July 3, reaching 1.1791 USD, marking a 0.3% increase and nearly a 14% rise since 2025, the best nine-month performance on record [1] - A potential breakthrough above the July high of 1.1829 USD could set a new peak since September 2021, with options trading indicating a possible approach to the significant 1.20 USD level [1] - Traders are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, which could create a divergence between the euro and European Central Bank rates, enhancing the euro's appeal [1] Market Sentiment - The one-week risk reversal indicator shows increasing demand for euro call options since the European Central Bank hinted at the end of its easing policy, with over two-thirds of euro-dollar options traded being bullish [2] - There is particularly strong demand for options with strike prices above 1.20 USD, indicating growing investor confidence [2] - Hedge funds that previously sought bullish opportunities through complex structures are now shifting to simpler bets on growth, reflecting an increase in market sentiment [2] Tactical Positioning - According to Morgan Stanley strategists, the tactical positioning of the dollar is neutral ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, suggesting that if the Fed confirms expectations for three rate cuts this year, the euro may have further upside potential [6]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) member Rehn refuted market speculation that there will be no further interest rate cuts in the coming months, indicating that current inflation risks are clearly "biased downwards" [1] - Rehn warned against complacency regarding price stability, despite the annual inflation rate meeting the ECB's 2% medium-term target for the past two months [1] - He highlighted several downward risks to be monitored, including falling energy prices, euro appreciation, and controlled service sector inflation [1] Group 2 - The euro to dollar exchange rate is currently experiencing a range-bound movement, with resistance at the August high of 1.1742 [2] - A breakthrough above this level could open up further upside potential, targeting 1.1788 and the high of 1.1830 from July 2025 [2] - The initial support level is at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) of 1.1514, with further support at the August low of 1.1391 and the weekly bottom of 1.1210 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The euro against the US dollar has declined despite better-than-expected inflation data from the Eurozone, indicating that the market may be focusing on other factors rather than the inflation increase [1] Inflation Data - Eurozone's inflation rate accelerated to 2.1% in August, surpassing the market expectation of 2.0% [1] - Core inflation remained at 2.3%, slightly above the expected 2.2%, while service sector inflation showed signs of slowing down [1] Market Reaction - Following the inflation data release, the euro fell by 0.6% to 1.1636 USD, down from approximately 1.1644 USD before the announcement [1] - The market anticipates that the European Central Bank will maintain interest rates at its policy meeting on September 11 [1] Technical Analysis - The primary support level for the euro against the dollar is the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1502 [1] - If this support is breached, subsequent support levels are the August low of 1.1391 (August 1) and the weekly bottom support of 1.1210 (May 29) [1] - Momentum signals are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly above 50 indicating a mild upward bias, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) below 11 suggests a weak trend strength without a clear direction [1]

Group 1 - The euro is currently trading at 1.1694 against the dollar, showing a slight decline of 0.11% from the previous trading day, indicating a market in a consolidation phase with limited volatility and no clear directional signals [1] - Market sentiment is complex and somewhat contradictory, with many institutions predicting a relatively flat performance for the euro in the near term due to an "overbought" situation, as approximately $18 billion in net long positions are currently betting on a stronger euro [1][3] - The positioning structure in the market may limit the euro's upward momentum, especially if the dollar weakens due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts or policy statements, which could lead to profit-taking pressures on the euro [1][3] Group 2 - Traders' attitudes towards the dollar are becoming polarized, with reductions in short positions against the yen while increasing short positions against the pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar, indicating a selective approach rather than a broad bearish outlook on the dollar [3] - The euro-dollar pair is currently in a critical area of contention, facing multiple resistance levels that act as a "ceiling" on the exchange rate's rebound, with key resistance points at 1.1742, 1.1788, and the year-to-date high of 1.1830 [3][4] - The euro is in a wide-ranging consolidation zone, and without a significant breakthrough above any of the mentioned resistance levels, it is difficult to determine if a trend has formed, with short-term risks of a downward movement still present due to a lack of new positive stimuli [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro has depreciated against the US Dollar, with a decrease of 0.2% to a value of 1.1629 [1] Currency Movement - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate has fallen to 1.1629, indicating a slight decline in the Euro's value [1]

Core Points - The euro has depreciated by 0.3% against the US dollar, reaching a value of 1.1671 on August 18 [1] - The 21-day moving average for the euro is reported at 1.1637 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro has experienced a decline against the US Dollar, with a daily drop of 0.5%, currently trading at 1.1645 [1] Group 1 - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate has decreased by 0.5% [1] - The current exchange rate stands at 1.1645 [1]