Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and recovery amid overall economic stability, with a narrowing decline in sales and prices [1][2][9]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, a reduction of 15.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. - The sales amount for new commercial housing was 4.42 trillion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year, which is a narrowing of 19.5 percentage points from the previous year [2][12]. Price Trends - The price decline of new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3 percentage points, with Shanghai experiencing a 6.0% increase [9]. - The overall price decline for new homes continues to narrow, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [9]. Inventory and Supply - The inventory pressure in the real estate sector is easing, with a decrease of 4.79 million square meters in unsold housing in June, marking four consecutive months of reduction [6][21]. - New construction starts showed a significant narrowing of decline, with a 20.0% decrease in the first half of 2025, indicating a potential bottoming out in supply [15]. Funding and Financial Health - Funding for real estate development improved, with total funds received by developers at 50.202 billion yuan, a 6.2% year-on-year decline, but the rate of decline is narrowing [12]. - Domestic loans increased by 0.6%, contrasting with a 6% decline in the previous year, reflecting improved financial conditions for developers [12]. Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to see more positive changes in the real estate sector, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting high-quality urban development [24]. - The implementation of land repurchase plans and special bonds is anticipated to improve inventory indicators, contributing to market stabilization [24].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in housing prices and sales, driven by targeted policies implemented by local governments [1][2]. Policy Effectiveness - The macroeconomic policies aimed at regulating the real estate market have shown significant effects, with a reduction in the year-on-year decline of new residential sales prices across first, second, and third-tier cities [1]. - In June, the year-on-year decline in new residential sales prices for first, second, and third-tier cities narrowed by 0.3, 0.5, and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [1]. - The year-on-year decline in second-hand residential sales prices in second and third-tier cities also narrowed, with reductions of 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively [1]. Market Trends - The overall trend indicates a stabilization in the real estate market, with new housing sales area and value experiencing a narrowing decline, suggesting a potential bottoming out [2]. - In the first half of the year, the national new residential sales area decreased by 3.5%, a reduction of 15.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year, while sales value fell by 5.5%, narrowing by 19.5 percentage points [2]. - The transaction volume in the real estate market has improved, particularly in the second-hand housing sector, which has seen an increase compared to the previous year [2]. Future Support Policies - It is anticipated that real estate support policies will be further intensified in the second half of the year, focusing on increasing the acquisition of affordable housing and expediting loan disbursements for key projects [3]. - There is an expectation for a potential reduction in mortgage rates in line with policy interest rate adjustments [3].

上半年，全国居民消费价格（CPI）比去年同期下降0.1%。其中，食品价格同比下降0.9%，能源价格同 比下降3.2%，两者合计下拉CPI约0.4个百分点。 ◎记者 陈芳 在7月15日举行的国新办新闻发布会上，国家统计局回应了物价、房地产市场走势等热点问题。 "近期价格低位运行具有结构性和阶段性特点。"国家统计局副局长盛来运表示，价格的低位运行，既与 国内外宏观形势变化有关，也与我国发展阶段有关。由于新动能成长还难以对冲传统动能调整的压力， 总体上价格仍在调整。 关于下半年物价走势，国家统计局表示，在系列支撑因素下，下半年价格会低位温和回升。 他认为，下半年，技术性因素也有利于CPI低位温和回升。无论是CPI还是PPI，翘尾因素均会减弱，对 CPI、PPI下拉影响作用会递减。 受益于"白名单"政策以及房地产市场销售回暖，房地产企业化债持续推进，房地产市场资金来源有所改 善。数据显示，上半年，房地产开发企业到位资金降幅比去年同期收窄16.4个百分点，比去年全年收窄 10.8个百分点。 盛来运分析称，经济保持稳定向好态势，总需求持续扩张，将为价格稳定运行奠定宏观面上的基础；扩 内需政策继续显效，将有力推动消费品价格 ...

7月15日，国家统计局发布数据显示，2025年6月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比 下降，同比降幅整体继续收窄。 58安居客研究院院长张波在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，从国家统计局公布的6月份房价数据来 看，一线城市连续两个月处于下行通道。当前一线城市核心区房价波动明显小于郊区。二线、三线城市 同比降幅持续收窄，显示长期市场仍在修复。从近两年情况看，下半年尤其是7月份以后行业景气度将 会迎来一波回升。 展望下半年房价时，张波预计，下半年政策力度会进一步增强，核心城市市场有望逐步企稳，但二线、 三线城市仍需通过产业升级、人口导入等长期措施化解结构性矛盾。 盛来运表示，房地产市场资金来源有所改善。在"白名单"政策以及房地产市场销售回暖的带动下，房地 产企业化债工作有序推进。 国家统计局副局长盛来运在当日国新办举行的新闻发布会上表示，今年以来，各地区各部门按照党中央 促进房地产止跌回稳的决策部署和要求，"因城施策"出台相关措施推动房地产止跌回稳。从统计数据来 看，相关政策措施成效明显，上半年房地产虽然有所波动，但总体上还朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进。 数据显示，6月份，一线、二线、三线城市新建商品住 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, anticipating stronger policies to stabilize the market [3][4][36]. Core Insights - The investment and sales in the real estate sector are both weakening, with expectations for more robust policies to halt the decline and stabilize the market [3][4]. - The report highlights that the investment in real estate from January to June 2025 has decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with new starts down by 20.0% and completions down by 14.8% [4][19]. - Sales volume and prices are both declining, with sales area down by 3.5% and sales amount down by 5.5% in the same period [20][35]. - Funding sources are tightening, with a 6.2% year-on-year decline in total funding sources for real estate development [36][38]. Investment Analysis Investment Side - Real estate development investment totaled 466.58 billion yuan from January to June 2025, down 11.2% year-on-year, with June alone seeing a 12.9% decline [4][19]. - New starts and completions are also down significantly, with new starts down 20.0% and completions down 14.8% year-on-year [19][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for real estate was 460 million square meters, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with June seeing a 5.5% decline [20][35]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with June's average price at 9,649 yuan per square meter, down 5.6% year-on-year [34][35]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 500.2 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, with domestic loans showing a positive growth of 0.6% [36][38]. - Sales returns are weakening, with deposits and prepayments down by 16.7% year-on-year in June [36][38].

新华财经北京7月15日电（记者陆宇航安娜）"今年以来，各地区各部门按照党中央促进房地产止跌回稳 的决策部署和要求，'因城施策'出台相关措施推动房地产止跌回稳。"在15日的国新办发布会上，国家 统计局副局长盛来运表示，相关政策措施成效明显，上半年房地产虽然有所波动，但总体上还朝着止跌 回稳的方向迈进，未来需要下更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 专家及业内人士普遍认为，在房地产市场深度调整的当下， 加大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳的需求 也日益迫切，各地的相关支持政策或将进一步出台，因城施策、精准施策，提升政策实施的系统性有效 性，持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。 三方面数据展现积极变化 国家统计局数据显示，上半年，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降3.5%，比去年同期收窄15.5个百分 点，比去年全年收窄9.4个百分点；商品房销售金额下降5.5%，比去年同期收窄的幅度更大，收窄了 19.5个百分点，比去年全年收窄11.6个百分点。 在盛来运看来，这些数据反映出当前房地产市场交易量有所改善，商品房销售降幅同比收窄。"商品房 交易还是比较活跃的，尤其是二手房的交易量比去年同期是增长的。" 与此同时，市场价格降幅整体收窄，部分 ...

70城房价同比降幅整体继续收窄 6月份，一二三线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降。其中，一线城市新房销售价格环比下降0.3%，且降幅 比上月扩大0.1个百分点。4个一线城市中，上海上涨0.4%，北京、广州和深圳均在下降。二、三线城市新 房价格降幅与上月相同，分别下降0.2%和0.3%。另外，各线城市二手房价格也在下降。 数据显示，上半年，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降3.5%，比去年同期收窄15.5个百分点，比去年全年 收窄9.4个百分点；商品房销售金额下降5.5%，比去年同期收窄19.5个百分点，比去年全年收窄11.6个百分 点。尤其是二手房的交易量比去年同期增长。 "现在房地产销售面积和销售金额都在下降，房地产筑底需要一个过程，在筑底和转型阶段相关指标有所 起伏波动是正常的，这也需要我们下更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。"国家统计局副局长盛来运在7月 15日国新办新闻发布会上表示。 广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉在接受《金融时报》记者采访时表示，房地产市场止跌回稳、 筑底转型是一个较长的过程。受政策落地、消费季节性、二手房挂牌等、居民收入等多重因素影响，过程 中有所波动是正常现象，但止跌回稳的趋势是不 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, with new housing prices showing a decrease in month-on-month (MoM) but a smaller year-on-year (YoY) decline. The second-hand housing prices are experiencing a similar trend, with a YoY decline narrowing while the MoM decline is expanding [8][19][26]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In June 2025, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -0.3%, -0.2%, and -0.3% respectively, with a total of 70 cities showing a MoM decline of -0.3%, which is a 0.1 percentage point increase in decline compared to May [14][15]. - The YoY decline for new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities was -1.4%, -3.0%, and -4.6% respectively, leading to an overall YoY decline of 3.7% for 70 cities, which is a reduction of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [14][15]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing prices in June 2025 saw a MoM decline of -0.6%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of -0.7%, -0.6%, and -0.6% respectively. This represents an increase in the decline of 0.1 percentage points compared to May [19][21]. - The YoY decline for second-hand housing prices across 70 cities was -6.1%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -3.0%, -5.8%, and -6.7% respectively, indicating a narrowing of the decline for some tiers [19][22]. Regional Performance - In June 2025, Shanghai led the new housing market with a MoM increase of +0.4% and a YoY increase of +6.0%. Among the 35 key cities, only Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Taiyuan saw YoY increases in new housing prices [26][27]. - The second-hand housing prices in June across 35 cities showed a decline, with only Xining experiencing a MoM increase of +0.1%. The overall trend indicates a consistent decline in second-hand housing prices since early 2024 [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong credit real estate companies that are well-positioned to meet the needs of improvement-oriented customers, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development [8][26]. - It also recommends companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group, as well as high-quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy [8][26].

Group 1 - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and recovery in the first half of 2025, with a focus on driving the market to stop declining and stabilize [1][2] - In the first six months, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, while the sales amount fell by 5.5%, but the decline has narrowed significantly compared to the previous year [2][3] - The transaction volume of second-hand houses has increased compared to the same period last year, indicating active trading [1][2] Group 2 - In June, the sales area of new commercial housing reached 10,536 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 49.38%, and the sales amount was 10,150 billion yuan, up 43.85% month-on-month [2][3] - The average opening sales rate in 30 key cities was 41% in June, reflecting a stable upward trend [2] - New housing projects with high efficiency and quality are favored by buyers, leading to better sales performance compared to traditional projects [3] Group 3 - The inventory reduction efforts have shown positive results, with the unsold area of commercial housing decreasing by 4.79 million square meters by the end of June [3][5] - Despite the ongoing price adjustments, the overall trend indicates a bottoming out of the market, with new housing sales area and amount showing a significant reduction in decline [4][5] - Regulatory bodies are expected to intensify efforts to stabilize the market, with various cities optimizing housing policies to better meet buyers' needs [5][9] Group 4 - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a price decline, with first-tier cities seeing a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% in June [6][7] - The overall transaction volume of second-hand houses is increasing, with significant growth in cities like Shenzhen and Beijing [7][8] - The rising proportion of second-hand housing transactions indicates a shift towards a "stock era," with potential for growth driven by demand from new citizens and young people [8][9]

来源： 国新办 国家统计局副局长盛来运在国新办新闻发布会上表示，今年以来，各地区各部门按照中央的决 策部署和要求，因城施策推动房地产市场企稳，从统计数据来看，相关措施成效明显。房地产 总体朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进。 具体表现包括商品房销售降幅收窄；一二三线城市商品房价格虽然有所波动，但总体降幅都有 所收窄；房地产市场资金的来源也有所改善，房地产企业化债工作有序推进；房地产库存连续 四个月减少。盛来运强调，要看到目前房地产销售面积和价格同比还都在下降， 房地产筑底 转型是一个过程，这是正常现象，要以更大力度来推进房地产止跌回稳。 ...