房地产行业|证券研究报告—行业月报 2025 年 7 月 22 日 强于大市 房地产行业2025年6月月报 6 月新房、二手房成交同比均走弱；住宅用地 溢价率持续回落 核心观点 【新房成交】 【二手房成交】 【新房库存与去化】 【土地市场】 ◼ 6 月地产板块持续跑输沪深 300，主要是因为行业基本面走弱。6 月房地产板块绝对收益为 0.9%，相对收益（相对沪深 300）为-1.6%，统计局口径下5 月的销售面积与投资降幅进一步扩大，70城房价环比跌幅扩大，6月高频数据也显示成交仍然较弱。 投资建议 ◼ 二季度房地产销售、房价、投资数据均明显走弱。我们预计，7 月的政治局会议表态或将更加积极，带动板块在 7 月中旬出现一波 政策博弈的行情机会。考虑到 7 月 15 日中央城市工作会议的相关表态，城市更新相关政策的支持力度有望进一步加大。地产从标 的来看，一方面，流动性安全、重仓高能级城市、产品力突出的房企或更具备 α 属性；另一方面，得益于化债、政策纾困、销售 改善等多重逻辑下的困境反转的标的或具备更大的估值修复弹性。现阶段我们建议关注四条主线：1）基本面稳定、在一二线核 心城市的销售和土储占比高、在重点城市 ...

2025年以来，整体房地产市场延续"止跌回稳"的态势，逐月来看，1-2月受春节假期影响供求季节性回落，但同比正增，3-4月迎来一波"小阳春"，随后5-6 月市场走势趋稳，即没有出现3月供求两旺的火爆行情，也不像去年同期持续下行，整体行情冷暖相间，相对稳定。 目前7月已过半月有余，从典型城市平均去化和热度来看，在供应不足及季节性回落双重影响下，市场动能明显不足，北京、上海、深圳、杭州等热点城 市市场热度也出现了高位回落。 近年来各地对于新增宅地供给规模的有效控制，使得2025年房地产市场已经全面进入供小于求的新阶段。在控制新增宅地规模、促进库存下降的另一面， 则是优质新增供给规模的不足，导致行业成交规模的稳定性难以保证。 基于6月份以来国务院、发改委、央行、财政部、统计局等中央部委多次明确"加力稳市场"的政策信号来看，2025年下半年房地产将迎来更多稳市场政策 的全面落地，加快构建发展新模式，助力行业朝着止跌回稳的方向继续迈进。 7月上半月30城项目 平均去化率30% CRIC监测数据显示，全国重点30城项目，2025年7月上半月成交面积达253.2万平方米，与去年同期下降35%。一线跌幅小于二线小于三四线，市 ...

6月份，二手房市场显现更多回稳信号：核心城市涨价小区占比回升至48%，各类小区涨价小区占比均有所增 加，刚需类成为本月涨价主力；挂牌价持续回落，议价空间再创新低，供求双方预期进一步趋同。年中市场交 易虽出现一定波动，但从二手房价指标走势来看，仍延续了近半年以来的指标韧性，并且从高频交易小区数 量、溢价空间等指标来看，二手房市场仍在稳市场进程中持续发挥重要作用： 01 涨价小区数量如期回升 价格指标如期反弹回升，平均议价空间连续3个月创新低 ◎ 文 / 马千里 高频交易小区数量稍有回落 为探析二手房成交价格的动向，研究中心以北京、上海等11个典型城市的二手房小区为样本，为避免单套异常 成交影响较大，每个月样本小区的选取标准，均为近2个月交易量不小于5套。 从统计结果来看， 6月有48.3%的小区成交价格环比上涨，较上月增加了3.4个百分点，高频交易小区数量回落 至4412个，但仍处于2025年以来均线水平以上。 2025年以来，涨价小区占比已经"一月涨一月跌"连续波动了 半年，行业筑底期信号已十分明确。据月中国新办发布会透露数据，2025年全国商品房交易量较2024年有所改 善，尤其是二手房上半年交易量仍保持同 ...

日前，中指数据研究院发布了全国十大重点城市6月二手房房价地图及交易情况。从结果看，房地产市场没有淡下来，甚至有一两个城市还特别突出。 这十座城市代表了我国几大经济圈的二手房产交易现状。整体来看，6月二手房交易价格不论是同比还是环比都在下跌，"以价换量"仍是市场主流，区位优 质或性价比高的房源交易活跃度较好。 "再等等，房价还要跌！"这是一位来我们公司咨询的朋友内心的真实想法。2025年上半年已经结束，各类房地产数据的半年统计都在陆续出炉。普通人关注 楼市无非就是想买房子、选房子，目前购房契机正在到来。 房价还会再跌吗？小兴认为目前的二手房价放眼全国，自2023年来已经下跌了非常多，但下跌幅度不会再有大变化，"止跌回稳"是市场主旋律，房价就算再 跌，出现明显价差的周期也会非常长。 十个样本看6月二手房价变化 从业主角度来说，成交周期过长会导致业主的卖房信心和房产估值受到影响，特别是早年间买下的投资性、旅居型以及稍低能级城市的房产。 从购房者角度来说，300万以下的刚需房占市场比例达41.9%，改善型房源不讲价对于购房者来说压力很大，市场分化会让购房者寻求更多元的选择。 法拍开口子，价格低、选择多、规模大 作为深 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][32]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued downward trend in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with a significant decrease in new home sales in major cities [4][5]. - The central government emphasizes urban renewal as a key strategy to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a shift towards more robust policy support [4][32]. - The report suggests that while transaction volumes have stabilized, they have not yet entered a positive cycle, and further supportive measures are anticipated [4][32]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of July 12-18, 2025, new home sales in 34 key cities totaled 1.591 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 20.1% [4][5]. - Year-to-date, new home sales are down 11% compared to the previous year, with first and second-tier cities experiencing a 17.3% year-on-year decline [6][32]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home sales in 13 key cities totaled 1.031 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.4% [4][13]. - Cumulatively, second-hand home sales are down 11.4% year-on-year as of July [4][13]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report notes that 15 cities had a total of 730,000 square meters of new homes launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.87, indicating ongoing inventory challenges [4][23]. - The average months of inventory for new homes in these cities has increased to 19.8 months [4][23]. Policy and News Tracking - The central government has called for a focus on urban renewal, with various local governments implementing "old-for-new" subsidy policies to stimulate the market [4][32]. - Recent statistics show a 11.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for the first half of 2025 [4][32]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies have reported their half-year performance, with notable declines in sales for major players like China Resources Land and Longfor Group [4][32]. - Companies such as Zhonghua Enterprises and Nanshan Holdings have reported significant profit increases, while others like Vanke and JinDi Group have faced substantial losses [4][32].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is at a critical juncture of "bottoming out" and "recovery," with a general decline in new home prices across first-tier cities, but a narrowing year-on-year decline, particularly noted in Shenzhen's resilience and adjustment pace [1][6]. Group 1: Price Trends - In June, new home prices in first-tier cities showed a month-on-month decline, with Shenzhen experiencing the largest drop of 0.6%, marking the third consecutive month of decline [4]. - Year-on-year, Shenzhen's new home prices fell by 2.5%, which is less than the declines seen in other first-tier cities like Beijing and Guangzhou, which dropped by 4.1% and 5.1% respectively [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Shenzhen's price stability is attributed to structural differentiation in the new home market, where new regulatory products are impacting older projects, leading to price reductions in non-compliant projects while maintaining some price resilience in core areas due to strong demand [6]. - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen is also experiencing rational adjustments, with stable price declines driven by pragmatic seller attitudes and increased supply from new home products [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, there are signs of potential stabilization in the market, with upcoming long-term policy measures aimed at revitalizing demand and supply, including increased housing loan quotas and subsidies [7]. - The market is expected to benefit from a series of supportive policies from local and central governments, which may alleviate current pricing pressures [7]. Group 4: Buyer Guidance - For first-time buyers, focusing on core area new products with strong anti-decline characteristics is recommended, especially as policy optimizations lower entry costs [8]. - Investors are advised to be cautious, as the market has moved past the "universal growth era," and should concentrate on areas with sustained population inflow and strong industrial support [8].

报告导读： 我们认为对于房地产而言，后续政策方向将以实现"止跌回稳"的目标为主要前 提，需求侧合理引导需求，住房政策从量向质转型，供给侧挖掘存量机会，稳定优质蓝筹 企业，守住行业基本盘。 投资建议：维持"增持"评级。 今年四季度面临高基数期，我们判断三季度政策将集中在收储、城市更新 等方面铺排，缓释基本面压力，力争实现止跌回稳目标。 2024 年房地产竣工失速下滑，销售与竣工之间 差值为 2.36 亿平，我们看好下半年的竣工修复。 事件。 中央城市工作会议 7 月 14 日至 15 日在北京举行。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席 习近平出席会议并发表重要讲话。中共中央政治局常委李强、赵乐际、王沪宁、蔡奇、丁薛祥、李希出席 会议。习近平在重要讲话中总结新时代以来我国城市发展成就，分析城市工作面临的形势，明确做好城市 工作的总体要求、重要原则、重点任务。李强作总结讲话，对贯彻落实习近平总书记重要讲话精神、进一 步做好城市工作作了具体部署。 城市步入存量时代，政策设计因时制宜。 会议指出，我国城镇化正从快速增长期转向稳定发展期，城市发 展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效为主的阶段。会议在"着力优化现代化 ...

另外，6月松山湖二手房网签均价31672元/平方米，是全市唯一一个二手房网签均价破3万元/平方米的 镇街(园区)。记者还注意到，6月东莞石龙镇、洪梅镇、樟木头镇和常平镇，二手房网签均价甚至没有 超过1万元/平方米。 合富研究院高级分析师李兴旺分析称，6月份东莞新房成交不太理想，二手房相对还可以，整体来看二 手房成交会优于新房。其还称，"从上半年楼市数据来看，东莞楼市止跌回稳趋势越发明显。" 采写：南都记者黄慧萍 近日，东莞市住建局官网发布《2025年6月东莞市商品住宅网上签约销售情况》。数据显示，6月东莞地 面建筑层数超过4层的新建商品住宅(下称"洋房")共网签1228套，网签均价22440元/平方米，环比量价齐 跌。其中，洋房网签量环比减少近600套。在二手房方面，6月东莞二手住宅共网签2568套，网签均价 14457元/平方米，环比同样有着不同幅度的下滑。 具体来看，在洋房网签套数方面，6月松山湖洋房共网签183套，排在全市首位。其次是塘厦镇119套， 凤岗镇107套，麻涌镇82套。需要指出的是，松山湖网签销售数据包含"三限房"项目网签数据。 在网签均价上，6月南城街道洋房网签均价41794元/平方米，排 ...

这也预示，新一轮政策调整，预期愈发增强。 先看成交量。 国家统计局发布的这几项房地产市场数据。 7月15日，国家统计局上半年数据出来了。 房地产市场依旧很难。 量，持续回落；价格，也在跌幅扩大。 整体都不是很乐观。 无论是房地产开发投资增速，还是新建商品房销售面积及销售额增速，抑或是房地产开发企业到位资金增速、房地产开发景气指数。 走势很一致，都在往下走。 1-6月，全国房地产开发投资增速同比下降11.2%，跌幅比前5月扩大了0.5个百分点； 房地产开发企业到位资金同比下降6.2%，跌幅扩大了0.9个百分点； 房地产开发景气指数也比上期少了0.11。 还有，全国新建商品房的销售面积和销售额的跌幅，同样也在扩大。 一个由-2.9%降至-3.5%，一个由-3.8%降至-5.5%。跌幅分别比前5月扩大了0.6个百分点、1.7个百分点。 看绝对值，全国商品房销售面积，更是创下近十年同期新低。 由此可见，房地产市场的惨淡情况。 如果没有政策干预，今年很可能过不了9亿平米。 关键，房价也没止跌。 | | | 环比 上月=100 | 司比 | 1-6月平均 | | | 环比 上月=100 | 司比 | 1-6月平均 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization and recovery in the first half of 2025, driven by government efforts to halt the decline and promote a healthy market environment [1][3][9]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with a significant narrowing of the decline by 15.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1][4]. - The sales revenue of new commercial housing fell by 5.5% year-on-year, also showing a substantial narrowing of the decline by 19.5 percentage points compared to last year [1][4]. - The transaction volume of second-hand housing has increased compared to the same period last year, indicating active trading [1]. Price Trends - In June 2025, the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.3%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - The average sales price of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month in June, consistent with the previous month [14]. Market Dynamics - The new housing market is gradually stabilizing, with first-tier cities showing strong performance in new home transactions, such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, which saw year-on-year increases of 11.9%, 42%, and nearly 17% respectively [5]. - The average sales area of new commercial housing in June was 10,536 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 49.38% [6]. - The inventory reduction efforts have been effective, with the unsold housing area decreasing by 479 million square meters by the end of June, marking four consecutive months of decline [6]. Policy Support - The government is expected to intensify efforts to stabilize the real estate market, with recent meetings emphasizing the need for stronger measures [9][11]. - Core cities have begun optimizing real estate policies, such as improving housing fund loan policies to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers [10]. Second-hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a rise in transaction volume, but prices are under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 3.0% in first-tier cities from June last year [16][20]. - The increase in second-hand housing transactions is attributed to rising demand for housing upgrades and the need to sell existing homes [18][21]. - The overall transaction market for second-hand housing remains broad, with many provinces seeing transaction volumes surpassing those of new homes [20].