全国累计出台约3000次优化政策，房地产在"十四五"期间完成了一场深刻的格局重塑。 "十四五"期间，在周期波动、供求关系发生重大变化等因素影响下，中国房地产市场经历了一场深度调整。 中指研究院监测数据显示，2022年以来，全国各地累计出台房地产优化政策约3000次，从"房住不炒"到"止跌回稳"，政策基调发生了显著转变。 这些政策多管齐下降低购房成本和门槛，目前首套房贷利率已降至3.5% 的历史最低水平，首付比例也降至15%，仅北上深、海南部分城市和雄安新区还存 在限购政策。 01 政策转向：从抑制投机到止跌回稳 2016年中央首次提出"房子是用来住的，不是用来炒的"后，"房住不炒"持续出现在中央重大会议中，成为一段时期内房地产政策调整的基本原则。 随着房地产市场销售规模的大幅下行，房企经营风险不断增加，住房交付风险等问题也日益突出。 2024年9月26日，中央政治局召开非常规经济主题会议，定调"促进房地产市场止跌回稳"，释放了明确的"稳地产"信号。 根据每日经济新闻联手中指研究院发布的报告，仅2025年二季度以来，就有包括4月25日的中央政治局会议、6月13日的国常会以及8月18日的国务院第九次 全体会议等进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has entered a deep adjustment phase during the "14th Five-Year Plan" due to significant changes in cyclical fluctuations and supply-demand relationships, prompting timely adjustments and optimizations in real estate policies [1][3]. Policy Changes - The report highlights major changes in real estate policies, including the optimization of financial, credit, and restrictive policies to unleash growth potential in the housing market [2]. - Since 2022, approximately 3,000 real estate optimization policies have been implemented across the country [3]. - Key policies include the "Financial 16 Articles" and "Three Arrows" aimed at supporting reasonable financing needs of real estate companies [4]. Demand-side Policy Adjustments - In May 2024, several demand-side policies were optimized, including lowering the down payment ratio for first-time homebuyers to 15% and canceling the national-level interest rate policy limits for first and second homes [5]. - Major cities like Suzhou, Changsha, Chengdu, and Hangzhou have fully lifted purchase restrictions, with Guangzhou also removing such policies [5][12]. Market Trends and Predictions - The market is expected to experience a phase of recovery starting from Q4 2024, although recent policy effects have weakened, indicating that a complete halt to the decline is still some distance away [2][8]. - The report anticipates that with most cities lifting restrictive policies, the market will return to being supply-demand driven, potentially leading to further market differentiation [13]. Financial and Tax Policies - Financial policies have been adjusted to lower the cost of home purchases, including reductions in mortgage rates and adjustments to personal housing fund loan rates [9][11]. - Tax policies have also been modified to provide tax incentives for homebuyers, such as tax exemptions for home exchanges and reduced transaction tax rates [11]. Achievements During the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The real estate market has seen positive outcomes, with approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential sales recorded during this period [15]. - By Q4 2024, both the sales area and sales volume of new residential properties have shown positive growth, maintaining a trend of "stabilizing after a decline" [16]. - Over 7 million housing units that were sold but not delivered have been successfully delivered, ensuring the rights of homebuyers are protected [17]. Housing Security and Urban Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has also made significant progress in urban village renovations and the construction of affordable housing, with over 11 million units built or renovated [19]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has emphasized the expansion of urban village renovation policies to nearly 300 cities, promoting monetary compensation for residents [19].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is undergoing a deep adjustment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with policies shifting from "housing is for living, not for speculation" to "stabilizing and stopping the decline" as of late 2024, leading to a phase of market recovery, albeit with diminishing policy effects [1][2][6]. Policy Changes - Since 2022, approximately 3,000 real estate optimization policies have been implemented nationwide, marking a significant period of policy adjustments [2]. - Key financial policies include the introduction of the "Financial 16 Measures" and "Three Arrows" to support reasonable financing needs of real estate companies [3]. - In May 2024, several demand-side policies were optimized, including reducing the down payment ratio for first-time homebuyers to 15% and canceling the national lower limits on mortgage rates [4]. Financial and Tax Policies - The central bank has lowered the LPR for five years and above a total of eight times since 2022, reducing it by 1.15 percentage points to 3.5%, with public housing loan rates also reaching historical lows [8]. - Tax incentives for homebuyers include individual income tax refunds for home exchanges and reduced deed tax rates, while also supporting real estate companies through various financing measures [10]. Market Performance and Achievements - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential properties were sold, with positive growth in sales area and sales revenue observed in late 2024 [14][15]. - Over 7 million units of previously sold but undelivered housing have been successfully delivered, ensuring the rights of homebuyers are protected [15]. - The construction and collection of various types of affordable housing and urban village renovations have reached over 11 million units, benefiting more than 30 million people [17]. Future Outlook - With most restrictive policies lifted, the real estate market is expected to return to a supply-demand-driven model, potentially leading to further market differentiation [12].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has entered a deep adjustment phase during the "14th Five-Year Plan" due to significant changes in cyclical fluctuations and supply-demand relationships, prompting timely adjustments and optimizations in real estate policies [1][3][7]. Policy Changes - Recent changes in real estate policies include a shift from "housing is for living, not for speculation" to a focus on "stabilizing and stopping the decline" in the market [3][6]. - Since 2022, approximately 3,000 real estate optimization policies have been implemented across the country [3]. - Key financial policies include the introduction of the "Financial 16 Measures" and "Three Arrows" to support reasonable financing needs of real estate companies [4][11]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a phase of market recovery starting in Q4 2024, although the effects of recent policies have weakened, and a complete halt to the decline is still distant [2][7]. - The market is expected to experience significant differentiation, with resilient cities and properties standing out [2][13]. Financial and Tax Policies - Financial policies have adjusted the down payment ratio for first-time homebuyers to 15%, eliminated the national lower limit for mortgage rates, and reduced housing provident fund loan rates [4][9]. - Tax policies have included tax incentives for homebuyers, such as tax refunds for home exchanges and reduced transaction tax rates [11]. Achievements - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential properties were sold [15]. - By Q4 2024, both the sales area and sales revenue of new residential properties have shown positive growth, maintaining a trend of stabilization [16]. - Over 7 million units of previously sold but undelivered housing have been successfully delivered, ensuring the rights of homebuyers [17]. Housing Security and Urban Renewal - The government has made significant progress in urban village renovations and the construction of affordable housing, with over 11 million units of various types of affordable housing built during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [19]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has emphasized the importance of continuing urban village renovations and expanding support policies to more cities [19].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has entered a deep adjustment phase during the "14th Five-Year Plan" due to significant changes in cyclical fluctuations and supply-demand relationships, prompting timely adjustments and optimizations in real estate policies [1][3][7]. Policy Changes - Recent changes in real estate policies include a shift from "housing is for living, not for speculation" to a focus on "stabilizing and stopping the decline" [3][6]. - Since 2022, approximately 3,000 real estate optimization policies have been implemented across the country [3]. - Key financial policies include the introduction of the "Financial 16 Measures" and "Three Arrows" to support reasonable financing needs of real estate companies [4][11]. Market Outlook - A report indicates that starting from Q4 2024, the market is expected to show signs of recovery, although the effects of recent policies have weakened, and a complete halt to the decline is still distant [2][7]. - The report anticipates that the market will return to being supply-demand driven, with further market differentiation expected [13]. Financial and Tax Policies - Financial policies have adjusted the down payment ratio for first-time homebuyers to 15%, lowered mortgage rates, and reduced personal housing fund loan rates [4][9]. - Tax policies have included tax incentives for homebuyers and adjustments to the conditions for value-added tax in first-tier cities [11]. Achievements - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential properties were sold, with positive growth in sales area and sales revenue observed in Q4 2024 [15][16]. - Over 7 million units of unsold housing have been delivered, ensuring the rights of homebuyers are protected [17]. Future Developments - The upcoming report titled "Prospects for the '15th Five-Year Plan': Exploring the 'Golden Pit' of the Non-Restricted Purchase Cycle in the Real Estate Market" is set to be released on October 30 [20].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government reiterates the goal of stabilizing the real estate market, emphasizing the need to release demand for improvement through various measures, with specific policies being implemented in cities like Suzhou [1] Group 1: Real Estate Performance in Jiangsu - In the first eight months of 2025, the top 20 real estate companies in Jiangsu had a sales threshold of 3.439 billion yuan and a sales area threshold of 14,220 square meters [2][5] - The top three companies by sales revenue were: 1. China Merchants Shekou with 8.825 billion yuan 2. Huafa Group with 8.214 billion yuan 3. Greentown China with 7.739 billion yuan [2][3] - In terms of sales area, the top three were: 1. China Merchants Shekou with 340,800 square meters 2. Poly Developments with 321,700 square meters 3. New Town Holdings with 290,700 square meters [2][3] Group 2: Local Real Estate Companies - Jiangsu's local real estate companies showed strong performance, with the top 20 local firms having a sales threshold of 1.770 billion yuan and a sales area threshold of 7,440 square meters [5] - Jinji Real Estate led in sales revenue with 5.266 billion yuan, while New Town Holdings topped in sales area with 290,700 square meters [5][6] Group 3: Land Market Overview - In the first eight months of 2025, Jiangsu launched 442 residential land plots, with a total planned construction area of 26.071 million square meters, and successfully sold 425 plots with a total area of 26.257 million square meters [7] - The average floor price across the province was 6,484 yuan per square meter, with August seeing an increase to 6,517 yuan per square meter [7][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - With the goal of stabilizing the market, new supportive policies are expected to be introduced, and the market is anticipated to become more active during the traditional peak sales season of September and October [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent relaxation of housing market regulations in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, aimed at stimulating demand and stabilizing the real estate market as the traditional peak season approaches [3][4][5]. Group 1: Policy Changes - On August 25, Shanghai introduced new housing policies similar to those in Beijing, focusing on loosening restrictions in suburban areas while maintaining strict controls in core districts [3][7]. - Beijing's new policy allows families with Beijing residency and non-residents who have paid social security or income tax for over two years to purchase homes without a limit on the number of units outside the Fifth Ring Road [5][6]. - The new policies are designed to target high inventory areas, with over 80% of new home sales in Beijing occurring outside the Fifth Ring Road [6][8]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The real estate market has shown signs of stabilization, with over 370 policies related to real estate introduced nationwide in the first seven months of the year [8]. - However, the market recovery has slowed in the second half of the year, with a 12% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment totaling 53,580 billion [9]. - New home sales in the first seven months of the year reached 4.96 trillion, down 6.5% year-on-year, indicating a significant drop from the peak of 18 trillion in 2021 [9]. Group 3: Regional Differences - There is a noticeable divergence in the real estate market within major cities, with some areas experiencing price declines while others remain stable [10]. - In Beijing, the average price of second-hand homes has seen fluctuations, with a slight decline after a brief recovery following policy adjustments [10]. - In Shanghai, while the core areas are in demand, the outer regions face significant inventory pressure, with 76.6% of new residential inventory located outside the outer ring [10]. Group 4: Market Response - Following the new policies, there has been an increase in market activity, with a 41% week-on-week rise in new home transactions in Beijing [13]. - The first weekend after the policy announcement saw a surge in property viewings and sales, indicating a positive market sentiment [14]. - Other cities like Tianjin, Xi'an, and Suzhou have also begun implementing their own policies to stabilize the housing market, focusing on optimizing housing funds and promoting property exchanges [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for quality companies with strong product capabilities and inventory management [4][5]. Core Insights - The sales performance of real estate companies in July 2025 showed a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 23% in sales amount and 26.6% in sales area. Cumulatively, the first seven months of 2025 saw an 18.4% decline in sales amount compared to the previous year [4][5]. - The report highlights a structural differentiation in the sales market, with first and second-tier cities performing better than third and fourth-tier cities. It suggests that the real estate market will exhibit a "structurally strong + overall weak" pattern moving forward [4][5]. - The report emphasizes that while the broad housing demand has bottomed out, the recovery of residents' balance sheets will take approximately two years, which will delay the expected positive cycle in price and volume [4][5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In July 2025, the top three companies by sales were Poly Developments (18 billion), China Merchants Shekou (15.6 billion), and Vanke (13.5 billion). The threshold for the top three has decreased from 15.9 billion in the same month last year to 13.5 billion this year [4][5]. - The cumulative sales for the first seven months of 2025 were led by Poly Developments (163.2 billion), China Overseas (132 billion), and China Resources (123.6 billion), with significant year-on-year declines for most companies [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality real estate companies with strong product capabilities and inventory management, such as Jianfa International, Binhai Group, China Resources Land, and Jianfa Holdings. It also suggests monitoring companies like Greentown China and China Jinmao [4][5]. - For undervalued recovery companies, the report highlights New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, China Overseas, Longfor Group, and Huafa Group as potential investment opportunities [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant decline in second-hand housing prices, but the overall trend is shifting towards stabilization, with opportunities for potential buyers emerging in the latter half of 2025 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The second-hand housing prices in major cities have been declining both year-on-year and month-on-month, with "price for volume" being the prevailing market strategy [3]. - Chengdu leads in second-hand housing transactions with 19,214 units sold in June, followed by Shanghai with 18,028 units and Beijing with 15,139 units [3]. - Since July 2020, second-hand housing prices have reached a low point, and while further declines are expected, the pace of decline is anticipated to stabilize under current policy guidance [3][4]. Group 2: Buyer Insights - For potential homebuyers who have been waiting for years, the latter half of this year presents a favorable opportunity to purchase homes [4]. - The market is showing a significant divide, with 41.9% of the market consisting of homes priced below 3 million, while buyers of upgraded housing face considerable pressure due to lack of negotiation [7]. Group 3: Legal Auction Market - The volume of auctioned properties has increased, with 32,000 properties available in June, indicating sustained market confidence [9]. - Buyers are finding better deals in auctioned properties compared to regular second-hand homes, as these often sell below appraisal values, providing financial advantages [9]. - Caution is advised when participating in property auctions, and it is recommended to engage professional services for due diligence to avoid potential pitfalls [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2][7][31] Core Insights - New home sales have slightly declined, while second-hand home transactions continue to grow, indicating a stronger market for second-hand properties compared to new homes [4][10][31] - The government is expected to implement policies to stabilize the real estate market, which may include easing restrictive measures and accelerating the acquisition of existing properties and idle land [7][31] Summary by Sections New and Second-Hand Housing Sales Data - In the week of March 3-9, new home sales in 30 major cities amounted to 1.47 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 33% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% [4][10] - Second-hand home sales in 13 cities reached 1.92 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 66% [4][10] Key City Transactions - **Shanghai**: Second-hand home daily average transactions reached 858 units, a year-on-year increase of 57% [5][15] - **Guangzhou**: Second-hand home transactions rose to 2,540 units, a year-on-year increase of 16% [6][20] - **Shenzhen**: Second-hand home daily average transactions were 199 units, a year-on-year increase of 54% [6][23] - **Beijing**: Second-hand home daily average transactions were 550 units, a year-on-year increase of 41% [6][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with low financial risks, strong land acquisition capabilities, and reasonable land reserves, as well as top second-hand housing intermediaries benefiting from active transactions [7][31]