2025.08. 26 本文字数：2779，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 孙梦凡 临近楼市传统的"金九银十"，各地再一次祭出楼市优化政策。 8月25日，上海接棒北京楼市新政，出台了涉及限购、公积金、信贷、税收等多项新政，整体导向与 北京类似，即"核心区严控、郊区松绑"，挖掘住房购买力、降低置业门槛，为势头有所减弱的市场 注入一针"强心剂"。 在当前楼市节点，一线城市带头松绑楼市调控，有切实的行业必要性。今年二季度开始，全国楼市出 现新情况，新盘去化率下滑，即便是京沪内部分化也很明显，郊区库存压力较高。对此业内人士 称，"再保持强压政策意义不大"。 而京沪步调一致的新政将有何效果？专家表示，在"金九银十"关键节点到来前，一线城市发布利好 政策，有利于楼市止跌回稳巩固成效。 一线城市"放房票" 作为全国楼市的"高地"，北京、上海调控政策松动备受关注。 半月前，楼市调控一向最严格的北京，打响了新一轮政策"第一枪"。以五环为分界线，京籍居民家 庭、连续缴纳社保或个人所得税满2年及以上的非京籍居民家庭，购买五环外商品住房，将不再限套 数。成年单身人士和居民家庭执行同样的限购政策。 这一重磅政策，成为近年来北 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for quality companies with strong product capabilities and inventory management [4][5]. Core Insights - The sales performance of real estate companies in July 2025 showed a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 23% in sales amount and 26.6% in sales area. Cumulatively, the first seven months of 2025 saw an 18.4% decline in sales amount compared to the previous year [4][5]. - The report highlights a structural differentiation in the sales market, with first and second-tier cities performing better than third and fourth-tier cities. It suggests that the real estate market will exhibit a "structurally strong + overall weak" pattern moving forward [4][5]. - The report emphasizes that while the broad housing demand has bottomed out, the recovery of residents' balance sheets will take approximately two years, which will delay the expected positive cycle in price and volume [4][5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In July 2025, the top three companies by sales were Poly Developments (18 billion), China Merchants Shekou (15.6 billion), and Vanke (13.5 billion). The threshold for the top three has decreased from 15.9 billion in the same month last year to 13.5 billion this year [4][5]. - The cumulative sales for the first seven months of 2025 were led by Poly Developments (163.2 billion), China Overseas (132 billion), and China Resources (123.6 billion), with significant year-on-year declines for most companies [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality real estate companies with strong product capabilities and inventory management, such as Jianfa International, Binhai Group, China Resources Land, and Jianfa Holdings. It also suggests monitoring companies like Greentown China and China Jinmao [4][5]. - For undervalued recovery companies, the report highlights New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, China Overseas, Longfor Group, and Huafa Group as potential investment opportunities [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant decline in second-hand housing prices, but the overall trend is shifting towards stabilization, with opportunities for potential buyers emerging in the latter half of 2025 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The second-hand housing prices in major cities have been declining both year-on-year and month-on-month, with "price for volume" being the prevailing market strategy [3]. - Chengdu leads in second-hand housing transactions with 19,214 units sold in June, followed by Shanghai with 18,028 units and Beijing with 15,139 units [3]. - Since July 2020, second-hand housing prices have reached a low point, and while further declines are expected, the pace of decline is anticipated to stabilize under current policy guidance [3][4]. Group 2: Buyer Insights - For potential homebuyers who have been waiting for years, the latter half of this year presents a favorable opportunity to purchase homes [4]. - The market is showing a significant divide, with 41.9% of the market consisting of homes priced below 3 million, while buyers of upgraded housing face considerable pressure due to lack of negotiation [7]. Group 3: Legal Auction Market - The volume of auctioned properties has increased, with 32,000 properties available in June, indicating sustained market confidence [9]. - Buyers are finding better deals in auctioned properties compared to regular second-hand homes, as these often sell below appraisal values, providing financial advantages [9]. - Caution is advised when participating in property auctions, and it is recommended to engage professional services for due diligence to avoid potential pitfalls [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2][7][31] Core Insights - New home sales have slightly declined, while second-hand home transactions continue to grow, indicating a stronger market for second-hand properties compared to new homes [4][10][31] - The government is expected to implement policies to stabilize the real estate market, which may include easing restrictive measures and accelerating the acquisition of existing properties and idle land [7][31] Summary by Sections New and Second-Hand Housing Sales Data - In the week of March 3-9, new home sales in 30 major cities amounted to 1.47 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 33% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% [4][10] - Second-hand home sales in 13 cities reached 1.92 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 66% [4][10] Key City Transactions - **Shanghai**: Second-hand home daily average transactions reached 858 units, a year-on-year increase of 57% [5][15] - **Guangzhou**: Second-hand home transactions rose to 2,540 units, a year-on-year increase of 16% [6][20] - **Shenzhen**: Second-hand home daily average transactions were 199 units, a year-on-year increase of 54% [6][23] - **Beijing**: Second-hand home daily average transactions were 550 units, a year-on-year increase of 41% [6][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with low financial risks, strong land acquisition capabilities, and reasonable land reserves, as well as top second-hand housing intermediaries benefiting from active transactions [7][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [5]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is showing multiple positive signals, indicating that it has passed the "worst moment" with policies accelerating to stabilize the market. Concerns regarding falling housing prices, credit risks, and high inventory levels are being addressed [1][14]. - There is an expectation for structural stabilization in housing prices in 2025, with improvements in inventory issues due to "de-inventory" policies [1][14]. - The report highlights a recovery in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, particularly in key cities, with significant year-on-year increases in sales areas [12][25]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.22%, while the real estate development sector rose by 2.22%. The Hang Seng Index dropped by 2.29%, and the China Inner Housing Stock Index increased by 8.20% [2]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report recommends focusing on key urban markets where transaction volumes and prices are expected to recover. Companies with strong cash flow and performance in these regions are likely to benefit from market stabilization. Key recommendations include: - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649 CH) - Buy - Chengjian Development (600266 CH) - Buy - Binjiang Group (002244 CH) - Buy - China Merchants Shekou (001979 CH) - Buy - New Town Holdings (601155 CH) - Overweight [3][43]. Sales and Inventory Trends - From February 1 to 28, new home sales in 44 cities increased by 35% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing an 80% increase. The cumulative year-on-year increase for new home sales in these cities is 5% [16]. - Second-hand home sales in 22 cities rose by 102% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a 131% increase [25]. - Inventory levels in 21 cities showed a rolling four-week decline of 0% and a year-on-year decrease of 11% [35]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that 2025 will see a steady increase in transaction volumes in first-tier and some second-tier cities, with a stabilization in housing prices. The land market is also expected to regain some heat, with increased transaction values and premium rates [13][14]. - The report emphasizes that the concerns regarding the risk of major real estate companies are gradually alleviating, contributing to a recovery in industry confidence [14].