1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina market is currently in a state of oscillation. In the short - term, it is recommended to approach it with an oscillatory mindset, while in the long - term, there is still some downward pressure. Although the suspension of Guinea mines has reduced the ore supply, the current reduction scale will not cause a long - term supply gap, which restricts the upward space for alumina prices and profits [15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview Raw Materials - Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. The含税 price of 58/5 ore in Shanxi was 700 yuan/ton, in Henan was 668 yuan/ton, and the arrival - factory含税 price of 60/6 bauxite in Guizhou was 596 yuan/ton. Ore supply in some areas of Henan was tight due to mine suspension, while in Shanxi, mines in operation continued and those not in operation remained under rectification. In terms of imports, the military government in Guinea designated the AXIS mining area as a military reserve, causing three mines to shut down. Ore bulk cargo transactions increased significantly, and the mainstream transaction price rose to 74 - 75 US dollars/dry ton. During the period, 457.3 million tons of new ore arrived, including 380.3 million tons from Guinea and 71.6 million tons from Australia. The Cape ship freight from Guinea to China decreased slightly to 19 US dollars/ton [2][12] Alumina - The spot price of alumina increased last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3200 - 3280 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 3288.3 yuan/ton, up 267.6 yuan/ton. The port quotation of imported alumina was 3100 - 3200 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton. Due to the short - term supply shortage caused by phased large - scale production cuts, the spot price continued to rise. In the northern market, 4.7 million tons of alumina were traded, an increase of 2.2 million tons from the previous week, and the weighted transaction price was 3164 yuan/ton, up 191 yuan/ton. Overseas, the Australian FOB price of 374 US dollars/ton was equivalent to about 3318 yuan/ton in RMB, and China's alumina export window remained closed. By the end of the week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2944 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 68 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the return of maintenance capacity and the gradual release of new capacity led to a recovery in domestic alumina production capacity. The national alumina production capacity was 11082 million tons, with 8800 million tons in operation, an increase of 115 million tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 79.4% [3][13] Demand - There was no change in domestic demand. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 4392.3 million tons, remaining the same week - on - week. There was also no change in overseas demand, and the latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 2940.8 million tons, remaining the same week - on - week [13] Inventory - As of Thursday (May 22), the national alumina inventory was 321 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from the previous week. The alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was polarized. The inventory of large industrial chain groups was stable, while the inventory of some small enterprises and supporting industrial chain groups decreased due to the lack of alumina production capacity. The inventory of alumina enterprises decreased due to concentrated maintenance capacity and tight shipping. The port inventory fluctuated little, and the inventory would change after the normal port collection was completed [14] Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 164199 tons, a decrease of 40536 tons from the previous week. The domestic futures price rose and then fell last week. With the reduction in ore supply caused by the shutdown of Guinea mines, the market was no longer in a large - scale surplus but in a slight surplus or tight balance. It is expected that the bottom of the long - term ore price will gradually rise. However, since the current reduction in ore production will not cause a long - term supply gap, ore does not have the basis for a significant price increase, which limits the upward space for alumina prices and profits [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - On May 23, 0.3 million tons of spot alumina were traded in Baise, Guangxi, at an ex - factory price of 3300 yuan/ton, a transaction between an alumina plant and a trader. Also on May 23, 0.5 million tons of alumina were traded in Shandong at a price of 3300 yuan/ton, a spot - exchange transaction between traders [17] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain Raw Materials and Cost Side - Charts include domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various domestic provinces [11][18][25] Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - Charts cover domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. A table shows the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum and the supply - demand difference from January to May 2025 [11][32][39] Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Charts involve electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant alumina inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina warehouse receipt volume and open interest, and the ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina open interest to warehouse receipts [11][42][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillation [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Guinea ore has further decreased, and there are uncertainties in new alumina investments in China. Alumina supply and demand and costs still face pressure, but the price valuation is not high, and some negative factors have been priced in. The futures price may gradually enter the bottom - grinding stage [1][15] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices were on a downward trend last week. Shanxi 58/5 ore was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 at 668 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 at 596 yuan/ton. After the May Day holiday, mine inspections were strengthened. Domestic ore supply remained tight. Imported Guinea mainstream 45/3 ore price dropped to 75 dollars/dry ton (CIF). Newly - arrived ore during the period was 4.747 million tons, including 4.11 million tons from Guinea. The freight from Guinea to China decreased slightly to 19 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina rose last week. The northern comprehensive price was 2870 - 2930 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 2913.6 yuan/ton, up 22.4 yuan/ton. The import port price was flat. After the holiday, downstream enterprises had a strong willingness to replenish stocks. The domestic alumina full - cost was 2962 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of - 59 yuan/ton. The number of domestic alumina enterprises under maintenance and production cuts was increasing. The national alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons, with an operating capacity of 86.75 million tons, a decrease of 550,000 tons from before the holiday, and an operating rate of 78.2% [3][13] - **Demand**: There were no changes in domestic and overseas demand. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 43.923 million tons, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.408 million tons, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [13] - **Inventory**: As of May 8, the national alumina inventory was 3.288 million tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons from before the holiday. Alumina enterprise inventories and electrolytic aluminum enterprise inventories both decreased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 249,763 tons, a decrease of 28,850 tons from last week. The supply shortage led to inventory reduction, and the uncertainty of new project investment led to a rebound in the futures price [15] 3.2 Weekly Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain - On May 9, 200,000 tons of alumina were traded in Shandong at 2900 yuan/ton [16] - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong had its third 1 - million - ton production line put into operation in mid - April. The production was mainly concentrated on the front - end of aluminum hydroxide, and the finished product was expected to be produced by the end of the month. The alumina roasting volume was difficult to increase in the short term [16] - 500,000 tons of alumina were traded in Guizhou at 3000 yuan/ton for long - term orders [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The report provided data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, bauxite port inventory, shipping volume, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][19][24] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It included domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [31][33][38] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It covered the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions [41][44][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1][5] 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina spot price continued to decline last week, and most alumina enterprises in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou have entered a loss - making situation. Although the supply pressure has slightly eased due to production cuts, the new production capacity in Indonesia will be put into operation in the second quarter, and the overall supply - demand situation still faces pressure. However, the price valuation is not high, and the futures price may gradually enter the bottom - grinding stage [3][13][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices decreased last week. The含税 price of Shanxi 58/5 ore was 730 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 ore was 658 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan from last week), and Guizhou 60/6 bauxite was 596 yuan/ton. Due to the deepening of the mine resource integration policy, some mines were shut down, and the operating rate of mines in production was slightly lower than before the Spring Festival. The short - term bauxite price was still in a downward range. For imports, long - term contracts of large bauxite enterprises were signed successively, with the overall price ranging from 88 - 95 dollars/dry ton, and the spot price was 85 - 86 dollars/dry ton. The mining cost in Guinea was mostly between 30 - 45 dollars/ton. During the period, 342.4 million tons of new ore arrived, including 247.2 million tons from Guinea and 73.3 million tons from Australia. The freight of Cape - type ships from Guinea to China dropped to 22.5 dollars/ton [2][12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina continued to decline last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2960 - 3030 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from last week; the domestic weighted index was 2985 yuan/ton, down 76.4 yuan/ton. The port price of imported alumina was 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The market trading was mainly between aluminum plants and traders, and the trading method was mainly tender procurement. Most alumina enterprises in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou were in a loss - making situation. In the northern market, 20,000 tons of alumina were traded this week, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week, and the weighted trading price was 2964 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton. Overseas, the overseas trading price continued to fall. 24,000 tons of alumina were traded in Vietnam at FOB 352 dollars/ton, equivalent to about 3011 yuan/ton in RMB. In the second quarter, a new 1 - million - ton production line of Indonesia Nanshan will be put into operation, increasing the market supply pressure. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 3104 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was - 3 yuan/ton. The current production - cut capacity was about 2 million tons, and it was expected to reach about 5 million tons by mid - April [3][13] - **Demand**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 43.848 million tons, unchanged from last week. There was no change in overseas demand, and the latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.358 million tons, also unchanged from last week [14] - **Inventory**: As of Thursday (April 3), the national alumina inventory was 3.39 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last week. The alumina price continued to fall, and the net - purchasing industrial chain group continued to reduce the inventory of its own aluminum plants. The alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants continued to decline; the unpacked alumina inventory of alumina enterprises within the research scope continued to increase, and the non - aluminum industry consumption increased significantly, which was beneficial for some multi - variety alumina producers to reduce inventory; the social inventory of other ports changed relatively little [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 309,097 tons, a decrease of 1,516 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - The alumina trading price in Western Australia dropped to 330 dollars/ton, and the theoretical import feasibility increased. On April 3, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Western Australia at an FOB price of 330 dollars/ton for May shipment. The theoretical import cost to China was about 2970 yuan/ton [16] - 24,000 tons of alumina were traded in Vietnam at an FOB price of 352 dollars/ton. On April 3, 24,000 tons of alumina were traded in Vietnam at an FOB price of 352 dollars/ton for early - May shipment, with payment upon delivery [16] - Two new alumina maintenance enterprises were added in the northern region. A Shanxi alumina enterprise planned to carry out major maintenance on its alumina production line on April 5, expected to resume production on April 20, with a daily impact on alumina production of about 3000 tons. A Henan alumina enterprise would carry out maintenance on a roasting furnace on April 4, with an initial maintenance time of about 10 days and a daily impact on alumina production of about 1300 tons [16] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost Side**: The report presents data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][19][24] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It shows data on domestic alumina spot prices in various provinces, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. The table also shows the historical data of alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and supply - demand differences from November 2024 to April 2025 [33][35][39] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes data on the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/platforms/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, total domestic social alumina inventory, and the warehouse - receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as well as the ratio of holding volume to warehouse - receipt volume [42][45][50]