Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum is oscillating strongly with low inventory unchanged, and attention should be paid to the potential transmission of downstream negative feedback. The key contradiction lies in the total installation volume and production scheduling rhythm in the second half of the year. The confirmation of the demand inflection point still needs to wait for the confirmation of the inventory inflection point and changes in export shipping capacity. The downstream processing profit is at a low level in the same period over the years, and attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback and the resilience of downstream buying interest [3]. - Alumina has low inventory and low warehouse receipts, and the futures price is oscillating slightly higher. The resumption of production continues, but the dilemma of low inventory and few warehouse receipts remains unchanged. The valuation at the current price has become a key point affecting the long - short game. Attention should be paid to the accumulation of resumption of production to inventory and changes in port inventory [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading End: Spreads, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: The term B structure of Shanghai aluminum and alumina has narrowed. The average price of SMM A00 aluminum premium has changed from 180 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium has changed from 50 yuan/ton to -5 yuan/ton. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month has changed from 248 yuan/ton to 119 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina has changed from 258 yuan/ton to 124 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum has widened [10]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract has increased significantly, and the trading volume has also increased. The open interest of the alumina main contract has remained stable at a high level, and the trading volume has rebounded this week [12]. - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum has declined, and that of alumina has continued to decline and is at a historically low level [18]. Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Products - **Bauxite**: Port inventory and inventory days have increased. As of June 27, the weekly imported bauxite port inventory has increased by 1760000 tons compared with last week. As of May, the bauxite port inventory and inventory days in China according to the阿拉丁 caliber have continued to increase. The port shipping volume has declined, and the floating inventory has shown differentiation. The alumina enterprises' bauxite inventory has rebounded in May [24][29][30]. - **Alumina**: The national total inventory has increased. As of June 26, the national alumina inventory has increased by 13000 tons to 3137000 tons compared with last week. The inventory in the alumina plant, electrolytic aluminum plant, and port has increased, while the inventory in the yard/platform/in - transit has decreased slightly [50]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The inflection point of inventory accumulation needs further confirmation. As of June 26, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingot social inventory has increased by 10000 tons to 460000 tons [51]. - **Aluminum Rod**: Spot inventory and in - plant inventory have increased, and the shipping volume has declined [56]. - **Aluminum Profiles & Plate - Foil**: The raw material and finished product inventory ratios have shown differentiation. As of May, the finished product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles has declined slightly, and the raw material inventory ratio has also declined slightly. The finished product inventory of SMM aluminum plate - foil has rebounded slightly, and the raw material inventory has increased [59]. Production: Output, Production Capacity, and Operating Rate - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite supply has shown a recovery trend, but the domestic bauxite output has declined in May. The supply of imported bauxite is still an important increment. The production in different provinces has shown differentiation [63]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity utilization rate has remained stable, but the loose fundamental pattern has not been reversed. As of June 27, the total operating production capacity of national alumina is 90000000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1400000 tons. The weekly output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina is 1729000 tons, an increase of 14000 tons compared with last week [70]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating production capacity remains at a high level, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased seasonally. As of May, the operating production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has continued to remain at a high level, and the production capacity utilization rate has increased significantly. As of June 26, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum according to the steel union caliber is 844900 tons, an increase of 20 tons compared with last week [74]. - **Downstream Processing**: The output of aluminum plate - foil has continued to decline slightly. The output of recycled aluminum rods and aluminum rods has declined, and the operating rate of leading downstream aluminum enterprises has continued to decline, with a strong off - season atmosphere [75][77][78]. Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Products - **Alumina**: The smelter still has profits, and attention should be paid to the progress of maintenance and resumption of production. This week, the alumina profit has declined slightly, with the metallurgical - grade alumina profit of 304.9 yuan/ton according to the steel union caliber. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan have declined, while the profit in Guangxi is better [85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit is still at a high level, but uncertain factors are interfering with market expectations. The complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainty [92][95]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has been significantly reduced, and the downstream processing profit is still at a low level [96]. Consumption: Import Profit and Loss, Export Profit and Loss, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have rebounded [104]. - **Export**: From January to May, the cumulative year - on - year export of processed aluminum products has declined. In May 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products has continued to rebound, with a month - on - month increase of 29000 tons [106]. - **Apparent Consumption Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area has rebounded, and the automobile production has increased month - on - month [115].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for alumina is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view on alumina is to treat it with an oscillatory mindset, while the long - term view is to mainly adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies. The current reduction in ore inventory will not cause a long - term supply gap, which limits the upside potential of alumina prices and profits. With the release of复产 and new production capacity, the supply gap of alumina has narrowed [15] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In Shanxi, the含税 price of 58/5 ore was 700 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 668 yuan/ton; and in Guizhou, the arrival - at - factory含税 price of 60/6 bauxite was 596 yuan/ton. Environmental inspections in Shanxi had limited impact on mine output. Three mines in the AXIS mining area remained shut down. Ore bulk cargo transactions increased, with the mainstream price at 74 - 75 dollars/dry ton. Newly arrived ore was 367.1 million tons, including 269.1 million tons from Guinea and 81.3 million tons from Australia. The Cape ship freight from Guinea to China rose slightly to 20 dollars/ton [2][12] - **Alumina**: Spot prices rose overall. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3280 - 3300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week; the domestic weighted index was 3297.7 yuan/ton, up 9.4 yuan/ton. The import port price was 3250 - 3300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The market supply contraction supported the price. In the northern market, 2.5 million tons of alumina were traded, down 2.2 million tons from last week, with a weighted trading price of 3304 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton. In Indonesia, 3 million tons of alumina were traded at FOB 373 dollars/ton, equivalent to about 3253 yuan/ton in RMB. The domestic alumina full - cost was 3087 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 184 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina production capacity continued to recover, with a built - in capacity of 11242 million tons and an operating capacity of 8930 million tons, up 130 million tons from last week, and an operating rate of 79.4% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestic demand remained unchanged, with the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at 4392.3 million tons, flat week - on - week. Overseas, some electrolytic aluminum plants in New Zealand, Germany started the复产 work, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 8 million tons week - on - week to 2948.8 million tons [14] - **Inventory**: As of May 29th, the national alumina inventory was 316.2 million tons, down 4.8 million tons from last week. The alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was basically stable; the inventory of alumina enterprises was mostly low; the port alumina inventory was at a low level [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 128201 tons, down 35998 tons from last week [15] 2. Summary of Key Event News in the Industry Chain during the Week - 0.5 million tons of alumina were traded in Guizhou at an ex - factory price of 3350 yuan/ton on May 29th - In Henan, 0.4 million tons of alumina were traded on May 28th, with a weighted average price of 3295 yuan/ton - 0.2 million tons of alumina were traded in Shandong on May 28th at a price of 3300 yuan/ton [16] 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost End**: The report presents data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, and prices of domestic caustic soda and thermal coal [17][19][24] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It shows data on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. From January to May 2025, the supply - demand balance of alumina changed over time [31][32][37] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The report includes data on the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, total domestic social alumina inventory, and the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the SHFE [40][43][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina market is currently in a state of oscillation. In the short - term, it is recommended to approach it with an oscillatory mindset, while in the long - term, there is still some downward pressure. Although the suspension of Guinea mines has reduced the ore supply, the current reduction scale will not cause a long - term supply gap, which restricts the upward space for alumina prices and profits [15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview Raw Materials - Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. The含税 price of 58/5 ore in Shanxi was 700 yuan/ton, in Henan was 668 yuan/ton, and the arrival - factory含税 price of 60/6 bauxite in Guizhou was 596 yuan/ton. Ore supply in some areas of Henan was tight due to mine suspension, while in Shanxi, mines in operation continued and those not in operation remained under rectification. In terms of imports, the military government in Guinea designated the AXIS mining area as a military reserve, causing three mines to shut down. Ore bulk cargo transactions increased significantly, and the mainstream transaction price rose to 74 - 75 US dollars/dry ton. During the period, 457.3 million tons of new ore arrived, including 380.3 million tons from Guinea and 71.6 million tons from Australia. The Cape ship freight from Guinea to China decreased slightly to 19 US dollars/ton [2][12] Alumina - The spot price of alumina increased last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3200 - 3280 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 3288.3 yuan/ton, up 267.6 yuan/ton. The port quotation of imported alumina was 3100 - 3200 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton. Due to the short - term supply shortage caused by phased large - scale production cuts, the spot price continued to rise. In the northern market, 4.7 million tons of alumina were traded, an increase of 2.2 million tons from the previous week, and the weighted transaction price was 3164 yuan/ton, up 191 yuan/ton. Overseas, the Australian FOB price of 374 US dollars/ton was equivalent to about 3318 yuan/ton in RMB, and China's alumina export window remained closed. By the end of the week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2944 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 68 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the return of maintenance capacity and the gradual release of new capacity led to a recovery in domestic alumina production capacity. The national alumina production capacity was 11082 million tons, with 8800 million tons in operation, an increase of 115 million tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 79.4% [3][13] Demand - There was no change in domestic demand. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 4392.3 million tons, remaining the same week - on - week. There was also no change in overseas demand, and the latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 2940.8 million tons, remaining the same week - on - week [13] Inventory - As of Thursday (May 22), the national alumina inventory was 321 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from the previous week. The alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was polarized. The inventory of large industrial chain groups was stable, while the inventory of some small enterprises and supporting industrial chain groups decreased due to the lack of alumina production capacity. The inventory of alumina enterprises decreased due to concentrated maintenance capacity and tight shipping. The port inventory fluctuated little, and the inventory would change after the normal port collection was completed [14] Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 164199 tons, a decrease of 40536 tons from the previous week. The domestic futures price rose and then fell last week. With the reduction in ore supply caused by the shutdown of Guinea mines, the market was no longer in a large - scale surplus but in a slight surplus or tight balance. It is expected that the bottom of the long - term ore price will gradually rise. However, since the current reduction in ore production will not cause a long - term supply gap, ore does not have the basis for a significant price increase, which limits the upward space for alumina prices and profits [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - On May 23, 0.3 million tons of spot alumina were traded in Baise, Guangxi, at an ex - factory price of 3300 yuan/ton, a transaction between an alumina plant and a trader. Also on May 23, 0.5 million tons of alumina were traded in Shandong at a price of 3300 yuan/ton, a spot - exchange transaction between traders [17] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain Raw Materials and Cost Side - Charts include domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various domestic provinces [11][18][25] Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - Charts cover domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. A table shows the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum and the supply - demand difference from January to May 2025 [11][32][39] Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Charts involve electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant alumina inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina warehouse receipt volume and open interest, and the ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina open interest to warehouse receipts [11][42][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillation [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Guinea ore has further decreased, and there are uncertainties in new alumina investments in China. Alumina supply and demand and costs still face pressure, but the price valuation is not high, and some negative factors have been priced in. The futures price may gradually enter the bottom - grinding stage [1][15] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices were on a downward trend last week. Shanxi 58/5 ore was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 at 668 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 at 596 yuan/ton. After the May Day holiday, mine inspections were strengthened. Domestic ore supply remained tight. Imported Guinea mainstream 45/3 ore price dropped to 75 dollars/dry ton (CIF). Newly - arrived ore during the period was 4.747 million tons, including 4.11 million tons from Guinea. The freight from Guinea to China decreased slightly to 19 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina rose last week. The northern comprehensive price was 2870 - 2930 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 2913.6 yuan/ton, up 22.4 yuan/ton. The import port price was flat. After the holiday, downstream enterprises had a strong willingness to replenish stocks. The domestic alumina full - cost was 2962 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of - 59 yuan/ton. The number of domestic alumina enterprises under maintenance and production cuts was increasing. The national alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons, with an operating capacity of 86.75 million tons, a decrease of 550,000 tons from before the holiday, and an operating rate of 78.2% [3][13] - **Demand**: There were no changes in domestic and overseas demand. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 43.923 million tons, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.408 million tons, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [13] - **Inventory**: As of May 8, the national alumina inventory was 3.288 million tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons from before the holiday. Alumina enterprise inventories and electrolytic aluminum enterprise inventories both decreased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 249,763 tons, a decrease of 28,850 tons from last week. The supply shortage led to inventory reduction, and the uncertainty of new project investment led to a rebound in the futures price [15] 3.2 Weekly Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain - On May 9, 200,000 tons of alumina were traded in Shandong at 2900 yuan/ton [16] - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong had its third 1 - million - ton production line put into operation in mid - April. The production was mainly concentrated on the front - end of aluminum hydroxide, and the finished product was expected to be produced by the end of the month. The alumina roasting volume was difficult to increase in the short term [16] - 500,000 tons of alumina were traded in Guizhou at 3000 yuan/ton for long - term orders [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The report provided data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, bauxite port inventory, shipping volume, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][19][24] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It included domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [31][33][38] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It covered the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions [41][44][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1][5] 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina spot price continued to decline last week, and most alumina enterprises in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou have entered a loss - making situation. Although the supply pressure has slightly eased due to production cuts, the new production capacity in Indonesia will be put into operation in the second quarter, and the overall supply - demand situation still faces pressure. However, the price valuation is not high, and the futures price may gradually enter the bottom - grinding stage [3][13][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices decreased last week. The含税 price of Shanxi 58/5 ore was 730 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 ore was 658 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan from last week), and Guizhou 60/6 bauxite was 596 yuan/ton. Due to the deepening of the mine resource integration policy, some mines were shut down, and the operating rate of mines in production was slightly lower than before the Spring Festival. The short - term bauxite price was still in a downward range. For imports, long - term contracts of large bauxite enterprises were signed successively, with the overall price ranging from 88 - 95 dollars/dry ton, and the spot price was 85 - 86 dollars/dry ton. The mining cost in Guinea was mostly between 30 - 45 dollars/ton. During the period, 342.4 million tons of new ore arrived, including 247.2 million tons from Guinea and 73.3 million tons from Australia. The freight of Cape - type ships from Guinea to China dropped to 22.5 dollars/ton [2][12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina continued to decline last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2960 - 3030 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from last week; the domestic weighted index was 2985 yuan/ton, down 76.4 yuan/ton. The port price of imported alumina was 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The market trading was mainly between aluminum plants and traders, and the trading method was mainly tender procurement. Most alumina enterprises in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou were in a loss - making situation. In the northern market, 20,000 tons of alumina were traded this week, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week, and the weighted trading price was 2964 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton. Overseas, the overseas trading price continued to fall. 24,000 tons of alumina were traded in Vietnam at FOB 352 dollars/ton, equivalent to about 3011 yuan/ton in RMB. In the second quarter, a new 1 - million - ton production line of Indonesia Nanshan will be put into operation, increasing the market supply pressure. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 3104 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was - 3 yuan/ton. The current production - cut capacity was about 2 million tons, and it was expected to reach about 5 million tons by mid - April [3][13] - **Demand**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 43.848 million tons, unchanged from last week. There was no change in overseas demand, and the latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.358 million tons, also unchanged from last week [14] - **Inventory**: As of Thursday (April 3), the national alumina inventory was 3.39 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last week. The alumina price continued to fall, and the net - purchasing industrial chain group continued to reduce the inventory of its own aluminum plants. The alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants continued to decline; the unpacked alumina inventory of alumina enterprises within the research scope continued to increase, and the non - aluminum industry consumption increased significantly, which was beneficial for some multi - variety alumina producers to reduce inventory; the social inventory of other ports changed relatively little [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 309,097 tons, a decrease of 1,516 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - The alumina trading price in Western Australia dropped to 330 dollars/ton, and the theoretical import feasibility increased. On April 3, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Western Australia at an FOB price of 330 dollars/ton for May shipment. The theoretical import cost to China was about 2970 yuan/ton [16] - 24,000 tons of alumina were traded in Vietnam at an FOB price of 352 dollars/ton. On April 3, 24,000 tons of alumina were traded in Vietnam at an FOB price of 352 dollars/ton for early - May shipment, with payment upon delivery [16] - Two new alumina maintenance enterprises were added in the northern region. A Shanxi alumina enterprise planned to carry out major maintenance on its alumina production line on April 5, expected to resume production on April 20, with a daily impact on alumina production of about 3000 tons. A Henan alumina enterprise would carry out maintenance on a roasting furnace on April 4, with an initial maintenance time of about 10 days and a daily impact on alumina production of about 1300 tons [16] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost Side**: The report presents data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][19][24] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It shows data on domestic alumina spot prices in various provinces, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. The table also shows the historical data of alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and supply - demand differences from November 2024 to April 2025 [33][35][39] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes data on the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/platforms/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, total domestic social alumina inventory, and the warehouse - receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as well as the ratio of holding volume to warehouse - receipt volume [42][45][50]