Group 1 - Guinea's government has revoked 51 mining licenses, including bauxite projects, raising concerns in the global bauxite shipping market [1] - Approximately 40 million tons of bauxite capacity may be affected, with a potential monthly production loss of about 1.7 million tons, equating to 5% of this year's global bauxite production [1] - China's alumina refineries are most impacted, with Guinea supplying around 70% of its bauxite to China, leading to a potential import loss of about 1 million tons per month [1] Group 2 - If supply issues persist, alumina spot prices may rise to around $390 per ton in the next three months, but could fall back to $360 if resolved quickly [2] - The uncertainty in Guinea's mining operations has increased due to military leadership and rising nationalism in some African countries [3] - The scale of the supply disruption is comparable to Indonesia's export ban in 2022, but finding alternative sources may be more challenging this time [4]

周度报告—氧化铝 国内氧化铝新投现变数 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 5 月 | 年 | 11 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★几内亚矿价进一步降低，国内氧化铝新投现变数 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格处于下行通道，山西矿 58/5 的含税报 价 700 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。五一假期间检查组再次 入驻山西地区，节后相关部门加强对矿山检查。受安全环保、资 源整合及品位下降等影响，国内矿整体供应仍呈现紧缺的状态， 复产矿山以及存量矿山的产出稳定性有待观察。进口方面，大型 矿企对二季度长协价格做出修订，几内亚主流矿 45/3 价格下调 至 75 美元/干吨（CIF）。部分低品质散弹矿石报价到 72 美元/ 干吨。国内用户对该价格仍较排斥，远期价格有意压至 CIF 68-70 美元/吨。GIC 码头恢复作业，先前矿山积压库存开始陆续发出。 GIC 方面表示纠纷问题会 ...