1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillation [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Guinea ore has further decreased, and there are uncertainties in new alumina investments in China. Alumina supply and demand and costs still face pressure, but the price valuation is not high, and some negative factors have been priced in. The futures price may gradually enter the bottom - grinding stage [1][15] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices were on a downward trend last week. Shanxi 58/5 ore was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 at 668 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 at 596 yuan/ton. After the May Day holiday, mine inspections were strengthened. Domestic ore supply remained tight. Imported Guinea mainstream 45/3 ore price dropped to 75 dollars/dry ton (CIF). Newly - arrived ore during the period was 4.747 million tons, including 4.11 million tons from Guinea. The freight from Guinea to China decreased slightly to 19 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina rose last week. The northern comprehensive price was 2870 - 2930 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 2913.6 yuan/ton, up 22.4 yuan/ton. The import port price was flat. After the holiday, downstream enterprises had a strong willingness to replenish stocks. The domestic alumina full - cost was 2962 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of - 59 yuan/ton. The number of domestic alumina enterprises under maintenance and production cuts was increasing. The national alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons, with an operating capacity of 86.75 million tons, a decrease of 550,000 tons from before the holiday, and an operating rate of 78.2% [3][13] - **Demand**: There were no changes in domestic and overseas demand. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 43.923 million tons, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.408 million tons, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [13] - **Inventory**: As of May 8, the national alumina inventory was 3.288 million tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons from before the holiday. Alumina enterprise inventories and electrolytic aluminum enterprise inventories both decreased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 249,763 tons, a decrease of 28,850 tons from last week. The supply shortage led to inventory reduction, and the uncertainty of new project investment led to a rebound in the futures price [15] 3.2 Weekly Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain - On May 9, 200,000 tons of alumina were traded in Shandong at 2900 yuan/ton [16] - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong had its third 1 - million - ton production line put into operation in mid - April. The production was mainly concentrated on the front - end of aluminum hydroxide, and the finished product was expected to be produced by the end of the month. The alumina roasting volume was difficult to increase in the short term [16] - 500,000 tons of alumina were traded in Guizhou at 3000 yuan/ton for long - term orders [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The report provided data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, bauxite port inventory, shipping volume, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][19][24] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It included domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [31][33][38] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It covered the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions [41][44][48]