Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the consumer inflation data for April and May in Japan exceeded expectations, indicating potential economic shifts [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's committee member, Naoki Tamura, highlighted the unexpected rise in consumer inflation, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] - This inflation trend could impact consumer spending and overall economic growth in Japan [1] - The data suggests that inflationary pressures are becoming more pronounced, which could lead to adjustments in the Bank of Japan's approach to interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the transmission of tariffs to consumer inflation remains uncertain [1] Group 1 - Tariffs may have an ambiguous impact on consumer prices, complicating the inflation outlook [1] - The relationship between tariffs and inflation is not straightforward, indicating potential challenges for policymakers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's consumer inflation is expected to rise further in May as the effects of government measures to curb inflation diminish [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - In April, consumer inflation excluding volatile fresh food rose by 3.5% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in March [1] - The economist Takeshi Minami noted that while imported inflation is gradually decreasing, food prices may remain high due to global abnormal weather patterns and ongoing rice supply shortages [1] Group 2: Future Projections - If the excessive weakness of the yen is corrected and rice prices begin to decline, consumer prices may fall below the Bank of Japan's 2% target by early 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar experienced a slight increase as investors await new signals indicating a potential easing of the global trade war [2] - The dollar index rose by 0.06% to 101.04, while the euro fell by 0.06% to 1.1177 USD [2] - The South Korean won appreciated by 0.84% to 1,402.66 USD, following discussions between South Korean and US officials regarding the foreign exchange market [3] Group 2 - Major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Barclays, have recently lowered their recession forecasts for the US economy [4] - The Chicago Fed President indicated that April's consumer inflation data does not necessarily reflect the impact of rising US import tariffs [4] - The Bank of England's rate setter noted that the UK labor market is more resilient than previously expected, influencing the decision to maintain borrowing costs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is awaiting more data to understand the impact of rising import tariffs on inflation and the economy, as current consumer inflation data appears to be mixed [1] Group 1 - Goolsbee from the Federal Reserve indicated that the mild consumer inflation data for April does not necessarily reflect the effects of increased import tariffs [1] - The Federal Reserve is trying to discern the underlying trends amidst the "noise" in the data [1] - There is a need for more comprehensive data to accurately assess price movements and economic direction [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan indicates that overall consumer inflation will stagnate initially, but will accelerate as inflation expectations rise, leading to an acceleration in economic growth [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan expects consumer inflation to initially remain stable before increasing [1] - Rising inflation expectations are anticipated to contribute to faster economic growth [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, short - term oil prices are expected to continue to decline, but also pay attention to the room for the US to sanction Venezuela and Iran due to low oil prices [3] - For methanol, the short - term trend is mainly bullish [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Crude Oil - The previous day's closing prices of SC near - month, SC next - month, WTI near - month, WTI next - month, Brent near - month, and Brent next - month were 458.1, 457.6, 58.23, 57.79, 65.72, and 65.14 respectively. The price changes were - 20.5, - 21.1, - 2.73, - 2.89, 4.10, and 3.94, with percentage changes of - 4.28%, - 4.41%, - 4.48%, - 4.76%, 6.65%, and 6.44% [2] - The trading volumes were 217,278, 91,670, 531,215, 470,571, 667,298, and 415,905 respectively. The open interests were 19,038, 20,105, 258,227, 269,274, 497,797, and 413,637 respectively, with changes of - 559, 4,964, - 25,261, 18,598, - 37,761, and 5,623 [2] - The current spreads of SC near - month - SC next - month, SC next - month - SC next - next - month, SC near - month - WTI near - month, SC near - month - Brent near - month, WTI near - month - WTI next - month, and Brent near - month - Brent next - month were 0.5, 457.6, 33.5, - 21.1, 3.23, and 0.58 respectively [2] Methanol - The previous day's closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 2,388, 2,426, and 2,317 respectively. The price changes were 81.0, 74.0, and 88.0, with percentage changes of 3.51%, 3.15%, and 3.95% [2] - The trading volumes were 12,527, 835,075, and 533,458 respectively. The open interests were 28,077, 447,218, and 469,938 respectively, with changes of 4,985, - 48,648, and 2,445 [2] Spot Market Methanol - The current prices in the port (in US dollars), East China, North China, and South China were 267.5, 2,570, 2,275, and 2,525 respectively, with changes of 5, 45, - 10, and 40 [2] Crude Oil - The international market prices of OPEC basket, Brent DTD, Russian ESPD, Oman, Dubai, and Cinta were 63.40, 62.80, 62.35, 62.22, 62.03, and 59.04 respectively [2] - The domestic market prices of Daqing, Shengli, China gasoline wholesale price index, China diesel wholesale price index, FOB naphtha (Singapore), and ex - factory price of aviation kerosene were 58.34, 57.97, 8,208, 6,997, 55.42, and 5,662 respectively [2] Comment and Strategy Crude Oil - The US Energy Information Administration lowered the global oil demand forecast. Trump's tariff policy led to concerns about economic growth, the US stock market fell sharply, and the CBOE market volatility index remained high. The US Energy Information Administration predicted that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 would be about $67.87 per barrel, a significant reduction from the previous forecast of $74.22 [3] Methanol - The methanol night - session rose 0.17%. The arrival of downstream factories increased, and the overall methanol inventory in coastal areas increased slightly. As of April 10, the methanol inventory in coastal areas was 73.36 tons, up 1.16 tons from April 3, a 1.61% increase and a 10.32% year - on - year increase. The estimated tradable supply of methanol in coastal areas was about 31.3 tons. The expected arrival volume of imported ships from April 11 to April 27 was between 52.35 - 53 tons. As of April 10, the overall domestic methanol plant operating rate was 74%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 0.61 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The average operating rate of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.21%, a 0.86% increase from the previous period [3]