证券研究报告 | 2025年08月25日 价格全方位多维跟踪体系（2025.08） 反内卷语境看价格结构性修复 流通领域重要生产资料价格跟踪 从绝对水平来看：截至 2025 年 8 月上旬，49 种主要产品中共有 19 种价格上 涨、28 种下降、2 种持平。上涨品种主要集中在上游煤炭（如无烟煤、焦炭 等）、中游农林（豆粕、天然橡胶、瓦楞纸等）以及下游化工（硫酸、甲醇、 涤纶长丝等），表现出供需趋紧与季节性需求带动的特征；下降品种则以黑 色金属（中板、角钢、热卷）、有色金属（铜、铝、锌等）、建材（水泥、 玻璃）、部分化工（PVC、顺丁橡胶、尿素）和能源（液化气、天然气、油 品）为主。下游需求不足及供应压力较大，整体价格承压。总体来看，价格 分化明显，上游能源与部分化工品景气回升，而黑色金属和建材链继续承压。 从同比数据来看：工业品同比整体仍在下行通道，但降幅逐步磨底持平。钢 铁、部分化工品率先修复转正；有色金属、部分化工龙头品种表现亮眼，硫 酸同比涨幅收窄至 49%；而煤炭、焦炭、传统建材、部分石化产品则仍深处 低位，市场进入"结构性修复+行业间分化"阶段。 上/中/下游不同产业链节点代表产品价格变化 近一月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 27 products experiencing price increases, 17 seeing declines, and 6 remaining stable in mid-August 2025 compared to early August 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, rebar prices decreased by 6.4 yuan per ton (-0.2%), while ordinary medium plates increased by 19.1 yuan per ton (0.5%) [4]. - In the non-ferrous metals category, electrolytic copper rose by 735 yuan per ton (0.9%), while aluminum ingots increased by 55.5 yuan per ton (0.3%) [4]. - Chemical products showed varied results, with sulfuric acid increasing by 2.1 yuan per ton (0.3%) and methanol decreasing by 3.9 yuan per ton (-0.2%) [4]. - The petroleum and natural gas sector saw liquefied natural gas prices drop by 184.8 yuan per ton (-4.4%), while gasoline prices also fell [4]. - In the coal category, the price of ordinary mixed coal rose by 23.5 yuan per ton (4.3%), indicating a positive trend [4]. - Agricultural products like cotton increased by 225.9 yuan per ton (1.6%), while corn prices fell by 10.3 yuan per ton (-0.4%) [5]. Group 2: Monitoring Methodology and Scope - The monitoring covers 31 provinces and municipalities, involving over 2,000 wholesalers, agents, and distributors [8]. - Price monitoring methods include on-site price collection, telephone inquiries, and electronic communications [9]. - The price changes are categorized based on percentage changes, with a total of 27 products increasing, 17 decreasing, and 6 remaining stable [10].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a general upward trend in prices, with 36 products experiencing price increases, 8 products seeing declines, and 6 remaining stable in late July 2025 compared to mid-July 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Changes Overview - In the black metal category, notable price increases include rebar (up 143.5 yuan, 4.5%) and hot-rolled ordinary plates (up 175.2 yuan, 5.3%) [3]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper rose by 1161.1 yuan (1.5%), while lead ingot decreased by 53.1 yuan (-0.3%) [3]. - Chemical products showed mixed results, with sulfuric acid increasing by 10.2 yuan (1.5%) and styrene decreasing by 120.9 yuan (-1.6%) [3]. Group 2: Specific Product Price Movements - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas prices remained stable, while gasoline (95) increased by 20.7 yuan (0.2%) [4]. - Coal prices varied, with coking coal rising significantly by 225.0 yuan (19.6%) and anthracite coal decreasing by 29.6 yuan (-3.4%) [4]. - In the agricultural products category, cotton prices increased by 132.1 yuan (0.9%), while the price of live pigs fell by 0.3 yuan (-2.1%) [4]. Group 3: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring encompasses a wide range of products across 31 provinces, involving over 2000 wholesalers and dealers [8][9]. - The methodology includes on-site price collection, phone inquiries, and electronic communications to ensure accurate data [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Hanzhong, located at the southern foot of the Qinling Mountains, showcases a unique cultural blend due to its geographical position, which has fostered the integration of diverse cultures from northern and southern China [1]. Geographic and Cultural Characteristics - Hanzhong's geographical features include a symmetrical layout and a space that attracts population and cultural integration, making it a "treasure basin" [1]. - The historical migration from nearby regions such as Gansu, Sichuan, and Hubei has contributed to the diverse cultural landscape, reflected in the various dialects spoken in Hanzhong [1]. Agricultural Development - Hanzhong produces agricultural specialties such as rice, tea, and cured meat, which are distributed through a modern transportation network, enhancing regional nourishment [1]. - The city leverages its unique "south-north" genetic traits to drive development, promoting high-quality growth through its rich cultural and ecological resources [1].

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between the United States and Japan is characterized by inequality, with recent U.S. tariff actions against Japan highlighting this dynamic, especially during Japan's Senate elections [1]. Group 1: U.S.-Japan Tariff Negotiations - The U.S. unexpectedly announced a 25% tariff on Japan just before the Japanese Senate elections, which could significantly impact the support for Japan's ruling party [1]. - Following a final ultimatum from the U.S., the two countries held an eighth round of negotiations, resulting in a superficial agreement where the U.S. claimed a 15% tariff concession from Japan, but discrepancies in understanding the agreement's details remain [3]. - The U.S. has threatened to restore the 25% tariff if Japan's concessions do not meet expectations, indicating Japan's fear of U.S. retaliation [5]. Group 2: Military and Economic Implications - The U.S. claims Japan has committed to purchasing more military equipment, but Japan lacks the necessary budget to fulfill this commitment in the short term [5]. - The U.S. also announced that Japan would buy 100 American aircraft, a claim that appears to exaggerate Japan's concessions as these purchases were already planned by Japanese airlines [6]. - Overall, the U.S. is perceived to be using tactics to create a narrative of victory in trade negotiations, while the actual benefits may ultimately fall on American consumers [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the price of live pigs (external three yuan) has decreased by 4.6% in mid-July compared to early July 2025 [1] - Among 50 monitored important production materials, 28 products saw price increases, while 20 experienced price declines, and 2 remained unchanged [1] - The price of live pigs is now at 14.4 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a decrease of 0.7 yuan [2] Group 2 - The price of rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) increased by 52.4 yuan, marking a rise of 1.7% [2] - The price of aluminum ingots (A00) decreased by 141.2 yuan, a decline of 0.7% [2] - The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) increased by 38.7 yuan, reflecting a rise of 0.9% [2] - The price of urea (medium and small particles) increased by 2.1 yuan, a rise of 0.1% [3] - The price of natural rubber (standard rubber SCRWF) increased by 477.3 yuan, marking a significant rise of 34% [3]

美国总统特朗普政府官员：日本将增加对（美国）稻米等农产品的采购。美日贸易协议中其他行业现行 关税未作调整。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nominee for South Korea's foreign minister believes a trade agreement may be reached before the implementation of the 25% tariffs proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump in August [1] Trade Agreement Details - The nominee did not specify what concessions South Korea is willing to make to reach the agreement [1] - U.S. concerns include the opening of South Korea's agricultural market, particularly in sensitive areas such as beef and rice, as well as easing digital regulations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in consumer inflation in Japan is primarily driven by cost-push factors, particularly the increase in rice and food prices [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's policy board member, Junko Koeda, highlighted that the inflation is not demand-driven but rather influenced by rising costs [1] - Specific commodities, such as rice and food items, have seen significant price increases contributing to the overall inflation [1]

Group 1 - The Vietnamese government has agreed with Indonesia to sign a rice trade agreement [1]