消费预期
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消费预期仍较弱,碳酸锂继续探底
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 04:54
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The overall situation shows that the downward shift of the spot transaction center has led to a decline in ore prices. Although there are maintenance operations in lithium salts, there is no reduction in the ore end, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. With the current transactions mainly for rigid demand, a large number of new warehouse receipts are registered, and the warehouse receipts continue to increase. Under the weak macro - sentiment and fundamental situation, lithium prices may still have room to fall [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On April 28, 2025, the main contract 2505 of lithium carbonate opened at 68,080 yuan/ton and closed at 66,960 yuan/ton, with a daily closing price down 2.07% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 145,735 lots, and the open interest was 246,197 lots, an increase of 28,827 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 393,166 lots, a decrease of 3,011 lots from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of the day's contracts increased by 42,206 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the overall speculation degree was 0.49. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 32,847 lots, an increase of 1,052 lots from the previous day [1]. Spot Market - On April 28, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was reported at 67,400 - 70,300 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was reported at 66,650 - 67,550 yuan/ton, also down 950 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Although the weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased slightly due to some lithium salt enterprises' maintenance or production cuts, the overall production cut was less than expected, and the production was still at a high level, which could not substantially change the oversupply pattern. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate has dropped significantly. The downstream material factories have completed their inventory preparations before the May Day holiday, with weak purchasing willingness. The subsequent demand is difficult to meet the previous incremental expectations, while the supply side is still operating at a high level, dragging the lithium carbonate price down. The low - price transactions of ore at the raw material end also fail to support the lithium carbonate price [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sell on rallies for hedging. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear spread options [3].