Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][12] Core Views - The company is experiencing a strong growth momentum driven by channel reforms and the release of channel dividends, with significant revenue growth expected [2][11] - The company has successfully turned around its main product, the spicy chicken feet, which had seen a decline for two consecutive years, and is now back to growth [8][11] - The company is leveraging new high-growth channels such as membership stores and snack wholesale systems, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [11] Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.182 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 157 million yuan, up 35.44% [4][5] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 383 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.23%, and a net profit of 50 million yuan, up 16.25% [5][9] - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 28.97%, with a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased to 13.31%, up 1.29 percentage points [8][9] Product and Channel Analysis - In 2024, the revenue breakdown by product showed significant growth in spicy chicken feet and other flavored meat products, with spicy chicken feet revenue reaching 785 million yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year [8] - The company’s revenue from offline and online channels in 2024 was 1.1 billion yuan and 70 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 17.7% and 204.3% [8] - The company has seen substantial revenue growth in various regions, particularly in East China and South China, with increases of 18.8% and 294.9% respectively [8] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.670 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 41%, and a net profit of 220 million yuan, with a growth rate of 40% [10][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.37 yuan in 2024 to 0.51 yuan in 2025 [10][12] - The report anticipates continued growth in revenue and profit margins due to the expansion of new channels and the scale effect from increased revenue [11]

Core Viewpoint - The development history of the snack industry is fundamentally a series of channel transformation processes, with significant growth opportunities arising from the expansion of old channels and the exploration of new ones [1][2][3] Channel Transformation - The snack industry, characterized by weak brand attributes, is highly influenced by channel changes, necessitating adjustments from companies to capture growth opportunities [2] - Each channel transformation imposes higher demands on snack companies, requiring them to adapt to new market conditions to sustain growth [2] - Traditional distribution channels favored strong brand power, while modern supermarkets required effective shelf management and terminal marketing [2] - The rise of e-commerce and live-streaming sales has introduced new players focused on marketing and supply chain efficiency [2] - The emergence of bulk snack stores has redefined the value distribution chain in offline channels, benefiting companies that prioritize product quality and supply chain strength [2] Industry Growth and Company Performance - The current channel transformation has raised industry entry barriers, with listed companies benefiting from this shift due to their strong product, brand, and channel capabilities [3][4] - From 2022 to 2024, listed snack companies are expected to achieve an average revenue CAGR of 15% to 20%, significantly outpacing the stagnant growth of the industry [4] Future Channel Opportunities - New channels such as WeChat stores, traditional supermarket reforms, and instant retail are emerging, presenting potential growth opportunities for listed snack companies [5] - Although these new channels currently have smaller market sizes, they hold significant growth potential and will require companies to further enhance their product offerings [5] Market Outlook for 2025 - The channel dividends are expected to continue driving growth in the snack sector, with bulk snack stores and membership supermarkets contributing significantly to business growth [7] - The market will also see trends in overseas expansion and the popularity of Chinese snacks, with Southeast Asia being a key area for growth [7]

Group 1: Snack Industry - The snack industry is undergoing a transformation driven by channel changes, moving from offline to online, and from traditional retail to membership supermarkets and live-streaming e-commerce [1] - Strong listed snack companies have capitalized on the channel opportunities over the past three years, and this trend is expected to continue into 2025, making snacks one of the most certain growth segments in the food and beverage sector [1] - New channels such as WeChat stores, traditional supermarket adjustments, and instant retail are developing steadily, providing new growth points for listed snack companies [1] Group 2: Storage Industry - The mainstream storage market is stabilizing, with NAND Flash prices expected to rise starting Q2 2025 due to production control by manufacturers and increased demand driven by AI [2] - The DRAM prices are anticipated to stabilize and improve in the second half of 2025, with storage module prices likely to increase ahead of wafer prices, presenting investment opportunities in the module segment [2] Group 3: Analog Chip Industry - The analog chip industry is entering a phase of accelerated consolidation, with domestic leading companies expected to enhance their platforms through both organic growth and acquisitions [4] - The report highlights the importance of observing the integration trends in the domestic analog chip market, drawing parallels with historical overseas mergers and acquisitions [4] Group 4: Asset Allocation - The demand for multi-asset ETFs in China is expected to grow, driven by the need for stable returns and a rich supply of underlying tools [5] - The development of multi-asset ETFs will progress through different stages, starting with simple performance-linked indices and evolving towards more complex models catering to specific needs [5] Group 5: Aviation Industry - The recovery of business travel demand post-Lantern Festival is supporting the recent increase in domestic ticket prices, with passenger flow on key routes recovering significantly [15] - The expectation of increased demand for travel due to economic recovery and the potential for improved utilization of wide-body aircraft on North American routes are positive indicators for airline profitability [15]

没能打造出第二增长曲线来对冲核心业务的下滑。 | 作者 | | 木盒 | | --- | --- | --- | | 编辑 | | 小白 | 老板电器，市值风云吾股评级中排名64。 （市值风云APP-吾股大数据） 过去20年以来，老板电器收入增长未曾停止过，2024年却戛然而止：前三季度收入为267亿，同比下 降6.78%。 （市值风云APP-吾股大数据） 扣非净利润为4.16亿，同比下降16.27%。 | | 本报告期 | 本报告期比上年同期 | 年初至报告期末 | 年初至报告期末比上 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 增減 | | 年同期增减 | | | 营业收入(元) | 2,666, 415, 701. 28 | -11. 07% | 7,395,769,773.08 | | -6.78% | | 归属于上市公司股东 | 442, 820, 994. 37 | -18. 49% | 1, 202, 179, 949. 11 | | -12.44% | | 的净利润(元) | | | | | | | 归属于上市公司股东 | | | | | | ...