证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 食品饮料 把握新品新渠道中的结构性成长机会 ——大众品 25Q3 业绩前瞻 ❑ 投资要点 食品饮料 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 12 日 行业评级: 看好(维持) 分析师：孙天一 执业证书号：S1230521070002 suntianyi@stocke.com.cn 分析师：杜宛泽 执业证书号：S1230521070001 17621373969 duwanze@stocke.com.cn 分析师：张家祯 执业证书号：S1230523080001 zhangjiazhen@stocke.com.cn 分析师：满静雅 执业证书号：S1230524100004 manjingya@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《白酒关注绩优和改革，大众 品首推青岛啤酒》 2025.03.29 2 《春糖反馈平稳，港股业绩 密集发布》 2025.03.22 3 《大众品 2025 年十大预 测》 2025.03.20 ❑ 风险提示 原材料价格大幅上涨、终端需求疲软或需求修复不及预期、行业数据存在主观分 类和筛选，存在实际情况与数据结论不符的风险。 行业专题 http://www. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating, emphasizing the resilience of leading companies and the valuation recovery opportunities in the livestock and restaurant chains [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that national beer companies have shown stable revenue and profit performance, while regional companies exhibit better elasticity in performance. The cost decline has contributed to gross profit growth, and the improvement in expense ratios is gradually releasing profitability [5][24]. - In the snack food sector, the report notes a divergence in channel performance, with emerging channels like bulk snacks and membership supermarkets maintaining high momentum, while traditional channels face challenges. The focus is shifting from revenue growth to profitability logic [25]. - The restaurant chain sector is experiencing a bottoming out of fundamentals and sentiment, with a gradual recovery expected as policies adjust and consumption peaks approach. The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies like Haidilao and Guangzhou Restaurant [29][31]. - The livestock sector is anticipated to see a fundamental reversal as raw milk prices stabilize and beef prices rise, which could significantly enhance profitability for companies like China Shengmu [36][45]. Summary by Sections Beer - National beer companies have demonstrated operational resilience, with stable revenue growth driven primarily by volume recovery. Regional companies like Yanjing and Zhujiang Beer have shown stronger revenue performance [12][13]. - Cost improvements from raw material price declines and stable pricing have driven gross margin increases for beer companies. The report anticipates continued upward potential in the beer sector as terminal demand gradually recovers [18][24]. Snack Foods - The snack food sector is characterized by a split in channel performance, with new channels like bulk snacks and membership supermarkets thriving, while traditional channels face challenges. The report emphasizes the importance of profitability over revenue growth moving forward [25][26]. - Companies like Wancheng Group and Yuyuan Foods are highlighted for their strong performance in emerging channels, while others are advised to focus on cost optimization to enhance profitability [25][26]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant sector has been under pressure due to policies and competition, but a recovery is expected as restrictions ease and consumption peaks. The report suggests focusing on companies with low valuations and potential for recovery, such as Haidilao and Green Tea Group [29][31]. - The report notes that the overall restaurant revenue for H1 2025 was 2.75 trillion yuan, reflecting a 4.3% increase, but with high-end dining facing significant challenges [29][30]. Livestock - The livestock sector is expected to see a turnaround as raw milk prices stabilize and beef prices rise, which could significantly enhance profitability for companies like China Shengmu. The report indicates that the most challenging phase for livestock companies may be over [36][45]. - The report highlights that the decline in raw milk prices has pressured revenue, but a stabilization is anticipated, which could improve the valuation of biological assets and overall profitability [36][38].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Chinese Snack Industry Industry Overview - The Chinese snack industry is transitioning from coarse processing to deep processing, with an increasing demand for functional snacks, indicating a new direction for product upgrades and differentiated competition [1][2][5]. Key Trends and Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The overall market size and growth rate of the snack industry have slowed since 2020, with Western snacks like candies and chocolates reaching a saturation point, while Chinese snacks are rapidly emerging [2][5]. - **Channel Evolution**: The snack industry has experienced rapid channel iteration, moving from traditional distribution to the rise of e-commerce, and now to the integration of online and offline channels, along with new hard discount models [1][3][4]. - **Membership-based Supermarkets**: Membership-based supermarkets like Sam's Club are growing quickly in China, significantly boosting sales for brands like Youyou Foods and Lihigh Foods, while traditional hypermarkets are declining [1][7]. - **Snack Wholesale Growth**: The snack wholesale sector has seen explosive growth, with over 40,000 stores as of 2024, and is expected to exceed 50,000 by the end of 2025, driven by supply chain reforms and efficiency improvements [1][8]. - **E-commerce Impact**: Traditional shelf-based e-commerce contributions to snack companies are weakening, but live streaming and content e-commerce are emerging as new opportunities, with significant investment in platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou [1][9][10]. Future Directions - The future of the Chinese snack industry will continue to focus on deep processing and increasing functional demands, such as health-oriented snacks with added nutritional value [5][11]. - The fragmentation of channels requires companies to diversify their strategies, as smaller firms often rely on single channels, which limits their growth potential [6][12]. Investment Considerations - Investors should focus on the dual opportunities of channel and category advantages, assessing situations where either or both are present to identify the best investment opportunities [3][12].

Core Viewpoint - Fan Beauty Diary (FBD), founded by actress Fan Bingbing, has emerged as a significant player in the beauty industry, achieving a revenue of 1.45 billion yuan in 2024, ranking 35th in the top 100 Chinese beauty brands despite being a relatively new entrant [2][9]. Group 1: Brand Development - FBD was established in 2018, initially targeting the high-end beauty device market with a radio frequency beauty device priced at 2399 yuan, which sold out quickly [4]. - The brand pivoted to the face mask segment after initial struggles, with the "Sea Grape Hydrating Mask" selling 1.2 million pieces in its first month [5][20]. - FBD has developed a product matrix covering nine categories, with a significant online following across platforms like Tmall, Xiaohongshu, and Douyin [8]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - The brand's growth is driven by three main factors: 1. Star IP leverage, with Fan Bingbing actively participating in brand operations and marketing, enhancing her influence as a beauty blogger [11][18]. 2. A focus on blockbuster products, with face masks accounting for 68% of total revenue, and the pricing strategy that exceeds mainstream brands [20][22]. 3. Channel advantages, particularly leveraging Douyin for sales, with Tmall contributing nearly 50% of revenue and Douyin expected to exceed 400 million yuan in sales in 2024 [23]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - FBD faces significant challenges, including: 1. Over-reliance on a single product category (face masks), with other categories like beauty devices and cosmetics not achieving similar success [26]. 2. A lack of core technology patents, with the company primarily holding design patents, indicating a potential weakness in R&D capabilities [27]. 3. Dependency on Fan Bingbing's personal brand, which poses risks if her public image is compromised [28]. Group 4: Future Directions - FBD is expanding into Southeast Asia, entering platforms like Lazada and TikTok, with strategic moves to tap into markets where skincare awareness is high [31]. - However, initial overseas performance has been underwhelming, highlighting the challenges of adapting the domestic success model to international markets [33]. - The beauty industry is facing a slowdown, with growth rates declining, which could impact FBD's future strategies and necessitate a shift from relying on celebrity influence to building a sustainable brand [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Youyou Food [1] Core Views - Youyou Food continues to experience high growth in performance, driven by both product and channel expansion [4][5] - The company is expected to benefit from a low base effect, with projected total revenue for H1 2025 between 746 million to 798 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 41% to 51% [4] - The introduction of new products in the Sam's Club channel is contributing positively to sales, with significant monthly sales figures for key products [5] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For H1 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be between 105 million to 112 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38% to 48% [4] - The second quarter of 2025 is expected to show even stronger growth, with total revenue projected between 363 million to 415 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43% to 63% [4] Product and Channel Development - The company has successfully introduced new products such as "Light Enjoy Time" and "Sour Soup Double Crisp" in the Sam's Club channel, with strong sales performance [5] - The penetration rate in the snack wholesale market is steadily increasing, with expectations for significant growth in traditional channels, particularly in previously underserved regions [5] Profit Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 0.50, 0.61, and 0.72 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25, 20, and 17 times [6] - The company is expected to maintain strong sales momentum in the Sam's Club channel and continue to benefit from the growth in snack wholesale and e-commerce channels [6] Financial Projections - The projected main revenue for 2025 is 1,586 million yuan, with a growth rate of 34.1% [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is forecasted at 215 million yuan, with a growth rate of 36.4% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company shows steady revenue growth with a focus on category expansion [1] - In Q1 2025, total revenue reached 595 million yuan, representing a 10% year-on-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8% to 68 million yuan [4][5] - The report highlights the impact of rising raw material costs on profit margins, with a slight decrease in gross margin to 29.91% [5] - The company is expected to improve profitability through scale effects and ongoing channel expansion [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 gross margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points due to increased raw material costs, but the company is maintaining stable margins through technical upgrades and channel expansion [5] - Sales expense ratio and management expense ratio both increased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.36% and 4.05%, respectively, while net profit margin decreased by 2 percentage points to 11.45% [5] Product and Channel Development - Revenue growth for fish and bean products exceeded 15% in Q1 2025, with ongoing expansion opportunities in fish products [6] - The company is leveraging health attributes of short-shelf-life products to achieve high repurchase rates [6] - Traditional e-commerce channels saw double-digit growth, and the company is enhancing brand perception through e-commerce initiatives [6] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to cultivate strong brand potential through new products and continue expanding across all channels [7] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.72, 0.87, and 1.03 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 19, 16, and 13 times [7] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2,771 million, 3,239 million, and 3,703 million yuan, with growth rates of 14.9%, 16.9%, and 14.3% respectively [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6] Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 595 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.27%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.21% to 68 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses fell by 8.61% to 53 million yuan [2] - The offline channel expansion is progressing well, with significant growth in snack specialty channels and stable growth in circulation channels. The online channel experienced a slight decline, but traditional e-commerce and content e-commerce showed improvement [3] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 29.91%, a slight decrease of 0.11 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 11.34%, down 2.28 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The snack food industry continues to benefit from emerging channels such as snack specialty stores and membership supermarkets, which are driving alpha growth despite overall weak consumption [5] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue for 2025 to be 2.758 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.4%. The net profit is projected to be 328 million yuan, reflecting a 12.6% increase [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 have been adjusted to 0.73 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18, 16, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][10]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9] Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong performance in 2024, with revenue reaching 1.182 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.37%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 157 million yuan, up 35.44% [5][8] - The growth was driven by significant increases in membership store channels and online e-commerce, with online revenue growing by 204.33% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 1.501 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 26.97% increase [8][11] Company Overview - Latest closing price: 11.62 yuan - Total shares: 4.28 billion, with a market capitalization of 5 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 13.75/5.43 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 13.3% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 31.41 [4] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 296 million yuan, a 42.92% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 36 million yuan, up 257.97% [5][6] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 383 million yuan, a 39.23% increase, with net profit of 50 million yuan, up 16.25% [5][6] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 28.97%, with a net profit margin of 13.31% [7] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from various product categories included: - Chicken feet: 785 million yuan (+8.63%) - Skin jelly: 93 million yuan (+6.29%) - Vegetarian products: 93 million yuan (-2.05%) - Chicken wings: 48 million yuan (+23.76%) - Others: 152 million yuan (+840.69%) [6] - Online and offline channels generated revenues of 680 million yuan and 1.104 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 204.33% and 17.70% [6] Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 197 million yuan in 2025, a 25.49% increase, and 261 million yuan by 2027, a 13.01% increase [8][11] - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 26, 22, and 19, respectively [9][11]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that BERSHIHE, a domestic outdoor products company, is preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showcasing significant growth in revenue and profit [2][3]. - BERSHIHE's revenue from 2022 to 2024 is projected to grow from 379 million yuan to 1.766 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 241.27% for net profit [3]. - The company's main products are outdoor clothing, particularly jackets, with revenue from clothing products expected to increase from 305 million yuan in 2022 to 1.608 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 129.5% [3]. Group 2 - BERSHIHE has capitalized on channel advantages, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) online sales growing from 331 million yuan to 1.351 billion yuan, achieving a CAGR of 102% [5]. - The founder of BERSHIHE, Liu Zhen, highlighted the importance of content marketing through platforms like Douyin, Xiaohongshu, and Bilibili, which has significantly reduced customer acquisition costs [5]. - BERSHIHE's product-centric approach includes offering a lifetime warranty, contributing to a repurchase rate of over 20% [5]. Group 3 - The overall analysis indicates that China's complete industrial chain and channel advantages are shaping new brand possibilities, contrasting with the operational pressures faced by established brands like Nike [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][12] Core Views - The company is experiencing a strong growth momentum driven by channel reforms and the release of channel dividends, with significant revenue growth expected [2][11] - The company has successfully turned around its main product, the spicy chicken feet, which had seen a decline for two consecutive years, and is now back to growth [8][11] - The company is leveraging new high-growth channels such as membership stores and snack wholesale systems, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [11] Financial Performance Summary - For the year 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.182 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 157 million yuan, up 35.44% [4][5] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 383 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.23%, and a net profit of 50 million yuan, up 16.25% [5][9] - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 28.97%, with a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased to 13.31%, up 1.29 percentage points [8][9] Product and Channel Analysis - In 2024, the revenue breakdown by product showed significant growth in spicy chicken feet and other flavored meat products, with spicy chicken feet revenue reaching 785 million yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year [8] - The company’s revenue from offline and online channels in 2024 was 1.1 billion yuan and 70 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 17.7% and 204.3% [8] - The company has seen substantial revenue growth in various regions, particularly in East China and South China, with increases of 18.8% and 294.9% respectively [8] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.670 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 41%, and a net profit of 220 million yuan, with a growth rate of 40% [10][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.37 yuan in 2024 to 0.51 yuan in 2025 [10][12] - The report anticipates continued growth in revenue and profit margins due to the expansion of new channels and the scale effect from increased revenue [11]