Core Points - Shanghai's "15th Five-Year Plan" is in the final stages of public opinion collection, with significant participation from various sectors, including 147 entrepreneurs and strategic scientists, yielding over 34,000 suggestions [1][3] - The plan aims to enhance Shanghai's global influence and competitiveness, with the city's GDP reaching 5.39 trillion RMB, ranking it fifth among global cities [1][2] Group 1: Expert Opinions and Recommendations - The establishment of the "15th Five-Year Plan" Expert Advisory Committee, consisting of 26 experts from various fields, aims to enhance the plan's professionalism and strategic thinking [3][4] - Key recommendations include building a large research system, enhancing supply chain capabilities, and improving financial infrastructure to integrate AI with financial services [3][4] - Experts emphasize the need for innovation in the semiconductor industry and the development of a modern urban transportation system [4] Group 2: Public Participation and Suggestions - The public engagement process included 77 roundtable discussions with over 1,900 citizens, resulting in more than 10,000 suggestions, highlighting the importance of citizen input in the planning process [5][7] - Suggestions from citizens range from improving accessibility features to developing customizable skill training packages for new employment groups [5][6] Group 3: Legislative Framework - The introduction of the "Shanghai Development Planning Regulations" provides a legal basis for the "15th Five-Year Plan," marking the first time a development plan has been legislated in Shanghai [9][10] - The regulations aim to ensure coordinated planning across various sectors and enhance the efficient allocation of resources, which is crucial given the complex economic environment [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to address "involution" in various industries, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, highlighting the importance of market-oriented reforms and innovation to escape price wars and achieve sustainable growth [1][17][20]. Summary by Sections Involution in Industries - "Involution" is prevalent not only in the photovoltaic industry but also in sectors like new energy vehicles, e-commerce, and food delivery, where excessive price competition leads to market inefficiencies [1][17]. - The phenomenon reflects a broader issue of market failure and inappropriate local government interventions, which can exacerbate competition problems [1][18]. Government's Role - The government plays a crucial role in guiding market competition from disorder to order, with measures such as prohibiting sales below cost to stabilize the market [1][18]. - Central authorities are actively working to eliminate local protectionism and market fragmentation, which are significant contributors to "involution" [1][18]. Corporate Strategies - Companies must shift from price-based competition to differentiation and quality enhancement to escape the "prisoner's dilemma" of "involution" [1][19]. - Successful companies in the photovoltaic sector have demonstrated that technological innovation can lead to significant market advantages, as seen with companies achieving record efficiencies in solar products [1][19]. Global Market Potential - The global photovoltaic market has seen a compound annual growth rate of 25.8% over the past decade, indicating substantial potential for renewable energy [1][19]. - There is a strong call for companies to expand internationally and leverage global demand for renewable energy solutions [1][19]. Long-term Business Strategies - Businesses are encouraged to adopt an incremental mindset, focusing on long-term relationships and sustainable practices rather than engaging in zero-sum competition [1][20]. - The article advocates for a balanced approach to internal innovation and external market expansion to foster high-quality economic development [1][20].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights the issue of "involution" competition in various industries, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, emphasizing the need for market-oriented reforms and innovation to overcome this challenge [1][2]. Group 1: Involution Competition - In the first half of the year, nearly half of China's photovoltaic companies reported reduced losses or profit growth, indicating effective collaborative responses to "involution" competition at national, industry, and corporate levels [1]. - The phenomenon of "involution" competition is not limited to the photovoltaic industry but is also present in sectors like new energy vehicles, e-commerce, and food delivery, characterized by excessive price reductions and market saturation [1][2]. - The "involution" competition reflects a macro-level irrationality stemming from rational choices made by micro-level entities, highlighting market failures and inappropriate local government interventions [1][2]. Group 2: Government's Role - The government plays a crucial role in guiding the market to mitigate the negative effects of "involution" competition, with recent efforts to establish a unified national market and address local protectionism and market fragmentation [2]. - Regulatory measures, such as prohibiting companies from selling below cost, have been implemented to steer market competition towards orderliness [2]. Group 3: Corporate Strategies - Companies are encouraged to move beyond low-cost competition and adopt differentiated strategies to escape the "prisoner's dilemma," focusing on innovation and quality enhancement to capture new market opportunities [2][3]. - The photovoltaic industry has demonstrated the power of technological innovation, with companies like Longi Green Energy achieving significant advancements in solar cell efficiency, indicating a shift from price competition to value competition [3]. Group 4: Global Market Opportunities - The global photovoltaic market has seen a compound annual growth rate of 25.8% over the past decade, suggesting substantial potential for renewable energy demand, particularly for photovoltaic products [4]. - Companies are urged to pursue international expansion and high-level openness to explore new markets and opportunities beyond domestic competition [4].

Core Insights - The discussion highlights the issue of "involution" competition in various industries, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, emphasizing the need for market reforms and innovation to overcome this challenge [1][2][3] Industry Overview - In the first half of the year, nearly half of China's photovoltaic companies reported a reduction in losses or an increase in net profits, indicating effective collaborative efforts to address "involution" competition [1] - The photovoltaic industry has seen a significant shift from price competition to value competition, driven by technological innovation, as exemplified by Longi Green Energy's record-breaking solar cell efficiency [3] Government Role - The government plays a crucial role in guiding the market towards orderly competition by addressing local protectionism and market fragmentation, as well as implementing policies to prevent below-cost sales [2] - The central government has been actively promoting the establishment of a unified national market and addressing issues related to local investment attraction [2] Company Strategies - Companies are encouraged to move beyond low-cost competition and focus on differentiation and quality improvement to escape the "prisoner's dilemma" of "involution" competition [2][3] - The potential for global expansion in the renewable energy sector remains significant, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.8% in global photovoltaic installations over the past decade, indicating vast opportunities for companies to explore [4] Future Outlook - The emphasis on exploring new markets and opportunities rather than engaging in zero-sum competition is crucial for sustainable growth in various industries [4] - The call for high-level openness and support for companies to expand internationally is seen as a pathway to avoid "involution" and foster high-quality economic development [4]

Group 1 - The global economy is facing multiple crises and challenges, but China's economy shows resilience and stability, with a focus on maintaining strategic confidence and promoting positive narratives about economic prospects [1][3] - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2023 emphasized the importance of economic communication and public opinion guidance to counter negative perceptions of China's economy [1][3] - There is a need for economic news reporting to be grounded and relatable to the public, utilizing both traditional and innovative methods to effectively engage audiences [1][3][4] Group 2 - Economic news reporting has expanded in breadth and depth, but there are challenges such as a disconnect between media output and audience engagement, leading to a phenomenon of "flow anxiety" [2][4] - The complexity of China's economic landscape requires nuanced reporting that addresses both macroeconomic achievements and the realities faced by various industries and businesses [3][4] - Media should avoid "composite fallacies" by not generalizing from individual cases, which can mislead investors and create an illusion of unbalanced growth [4][5] Group 3 - The rise of diverse media platforms has created a contrast between traditional media narratives and the more sensationalized content from popular financial influencers, necessitating a shift in reporting styles to capture audience attention [5][6] - Successful economic reporting should combine deep research with innovative storytelling to resonate with audiences, as evidenced by various media initiatives that have achieved significant engagement [6][10] - The importance of building a media think tank to enhance the capacity for economic reporting and policy analysis has been highlighted, with examples of successful initiatives in various regions [11][14] Group 4 - Economic news reporting must focus on addressing pressing issues such as industrial optimization, innovation capacity, and consumer demand, while maintaining a positive narrative [9][10] - Major themes in economic reporting should be explored deeply, combining historical context, logical analysis, and engaging storytelling to enhance audience understanding [10][14] - Journalists are encouraged to develop skills in continuous learning, in-depth research, and creating impactful works that reflect the realities of the economy [14][17]

Group 1 - The current "anti-involution" differs from previous instances by focusing more on regulating local government behavior, emphasizing the need for a unified government action standard [2][11][90] - The shift from "Five Unifications and One Abolition" to "Five Unifications and One Opening" highlights the importance of local government behavior regulation and external openness [11][12][90] - The current round of "involution" is driven by local governments' deep involvement, characterized by creating policy gaps, blindly launching projects, and setting market barriers [2][16][90] Group 2 - Local governments are facing pressure to find growth drivers due to the downturn in the real estate cycle, with national commodity housing sales area down 39.7% and real estate investment down 27.3% from 2021 to 2024 [4][29][92] - The reliance on land finance has decreased, leading local governments to seek growth in high-tax industries, with manufacturing and wholesale retail accounting for 32% and 14% of total tax revenue in 2021 [4][37][92] - The principle of "production-based taxation" in the VAT system encourages local governments to promote manufacturing clusters [42][92] Group 3 - The average investment growth rate in manufacturing exceeded 10% in 16 provinces from 2022 to 2023, with the top five provinces averaging over 20% [52][53][92] - There is a significant overlap in industrial planning among local governments, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals, new materials, artificial intelligence, and new energy, leading to repeated construction and overcapacity [57][94] - Local governments are competing through tax incentives and subsidies, resulting in significant differences in manufacturing tax burdens across provinces, with a national average of 17.4% in 2023 [70][94] Group 4 - The central government is likely to implement targeted reforms to address local government "involution," including regulating investment attraction behaviors and promoting a healthy investment environment [79][94] - Short-term measures may include cleaning up illegal policy incentives, while long-term strategies could involve changing government functions and promoting efficient resource allocation nationwide [79][94]

Group 1 - The current "anti-involution" differs from previous efforts by focusing more on regulating local government behavior, particularly in investment attraction and market openness [2][9][76] - The emphasis on "unifying government behavior standards" reflects a shift from previous policies that addressed nationwide supply-demand imbalances to a more localized approach addressing government actions [9][76] - Local governments are increasingly involved in "involution" competition, characterized by creating policy gaps, blindly launching projects, and setting market barriers [14][76] Group 2 - Local governments are under pressure to find new growth drivers due to declining real estate sales and investment, with cumulative declines of 39.7% and 27.3% respectively from 2021 to 2024 [23][30] - The reliance on land finance has decreased, leading local governments to focus on high-tax industries such as manufacturing and wholesale retail, which accounted for 32% and 14% of total tax revenue in 2021 [33][38] - The central government's transfer payments have become increasingly important for local governments, with significant subsidies for emerging industries like renewable energy exceeding revenues by 357.9 billion yuan [41][76] Group 3 - The overlap in industrial planning among local governments has led to excessive investment and competition, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals, new materials, and renewable energy, with 19 industries appearing in over 20 provinces' plans [54][77] - Local governments are competing through tax incentives and subsidies to attract industries, resulting in significant disparities in manufacturing tax burdens across provinces, ranging from 9.7% to 30.1% [63][77] - The lack of coordination in industrial planning has resulted in repeated construction and increased regional competition, leading to lower product prices and reduced industry concentration in sectors like automotive [66][77]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies while addressing the declining marginal efficiency of these policies [2][3] - The importance of ensuring consistency between economic and non-economic policies to avoid "composite fallacy" is highlighted, as conflicting policies can lead to suboptimal outcomes [2][3] - The necessity of improving the transmission mechanism of macroeconomic policies to achieve intended policy goals is discussed, indicating that a blockage in these mechanisms can hinder effectiveness [3][4] Group 2 - The role of automatic stabilizers and fiscal policy transmission mechanisms is crucial, with income distribution, money supply, and prices being key mediators [4][5] - The need for a robust expectation management mechanism is outlined, emphasizing that market participants' expectations can significantly influence policy effectiveness [6][7] - The importance of matching policy goals with appropriate tools is stressed, referencing Tinbergen's principle that the number of policy instruments should at least equal the number of targets [9] Group 3 - The coordination between short-term and long-term policies is essential for stabilizing economic growth, with short-term counter-cyclical policies needing to align with structural reforms [10][11] - The current economic environment necessitates stronger macroeconomic stimulus policies to break negative cycles and restore confidence among businesses and households [8][11] - The potential negative impacts of short-term policies on long-term structural reforms must be carefully managed to ensure overall policy effectiveness [11]

以下文章来源于晚点对话 ，作者龚方毅 黄俊杰 中金公司首席经济学家 彭文生 " 建立消费大市场需要回归常识，让发展成果更公平惠及全体人民" 晚点对话 . 最一手的商业访谈，最真实的企业家思考。 对等关税从 34% 涨到 125%，已经足以说明买方与卖方的简单权力关系。 7 年前，特朗普第一次对中国发起贸易冲突时，中金公司首席经济学家彭文生提出短期可以用货币、 财政政策应对，但长期需要给中国的消费者减负。 这也是他长期以来的政策主张之一。在 2013 年出版的《渐行渐远的红利》一书中，彭文生就建议随 着政府财力和整体经济实力的增长，中国应当扩大和增强社会保障体系，再结合其他制度调整，缩小 贫富差距，提高全民的消费意愿。 现在，中国如何让自己的国民更有能力消费被更多提及。今年初，中央经济工作会议将 "大力提振消 费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求" 作为经济工作的首要重点任务。在诸多问题上有分歧的国 内学者们普遍呼吁公平分配、促进消费。 既然 3.5 亿人能成为消费的 "甲方"，14 亿人的统一大市场应该诞生更多的富足的消费者，而不只是全 世界最高效率的工厂。 4 月 13 日，我们再度拜访彭文生，谈论美国成为 ...

以下文章来源于晚点对话 ，作者龚方毅 黄俊杰 晚点对话 . 最一手的商业访谈，最真实的企业家思考。 对等关税从 34% 涨到 125%，已经足以说明买方与卖方的简单权力关系。 7 年前，特朗普第一次对中国发起贸易冲突时，中金公司首席经济学家彭文生提出短期可以用货币、 财政政策应对，但长期需要给中国的消费者减负。 这也是他长期以来的政策主张之一。在 2013 年出版的《渐行渐远的红利》一书中，彭文生就建议随 着政府财力和整体经济实力的增长，中国应当扩大和增强社会保障体系，再结合其他制度调整，缩小 贫富差距，提高全民的消费意愿。 中金公司首席经济学家 彭文生 " 建立消费大市场需要回归常识，让发展成果更公平惠及全体人民" 文 丨 龚方毅 黄俊杰 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 黄俊杰 这一轮贸易战开始的第一周，中文社交网络上流行起来一个容易理解的类比：甲方要逼乙方重签合 同。极其复杂的地缘政治、货币财政、金融历史被简化为交易中的权力关系。 有人觉得美国是甲方，因为 4.2% 的人口每年的消费额占全球的 1/3。白宫似乎也是这么想的，特朗普 的新闻发言人最近断言，每个国家都会寻求和解，因为所有人都想要美国的消费者。 但 ...