Core Viewpoint - The article indicates that the first left-side reduction signal for 2025 has been confirmed, leading to a market trend shift as anticipated [1][2]. Weekly Recommendations - The suggested positions for the main board and small-cap sectors are both medium positions, with a balanced style recommendation [1]. Market Performance - Last week, the market experienced significant adjustments, with the CSI 300 index down by 2.29%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.60%, and the CSI 500 index down by 2.10% [2]. - The article highlights that the first reduction signal after two months of optimism was timely, coinciding with a notable market decline [2]. Fundamental Analysis - The expectation for monetary easing has not materialized, as evidenced by the unchanged LPR rates on March 20, which were below market expectations. The domestic economy is stabilizing but not showing strong recovery [2][3]. - The article discusses the "Trumpcession" narrative in the U.S., suggesting that the market's previous optimism regarding Trump's policies leading to economic prosperity was misguided. The current economic downturn is viewed as a forced and unavoidable recession rather than a deliberate outcome [2][3]. Technical Analysis - The market's technical adjustment has shifted from left-side signals to right-side signals, confirming the reduction signal as a precise indicator of the market peak [3]. - The article emphasizes that without significant positive news, the current technical trend suggests that any rebound should be viewed as an opportunity to reduce positions [3]. Sector Focus - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on industries such as light manufacturing and machinery [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downturn in the U.S. stock market, attributing it to President Trump's tariff policies and the resulting economic uncertainty, which has led to fears of a potential recession [4][5][6]. Market Performance - As of March 11, major U.S. stock indices continued to decline, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 down over 1%, and the Nasdaq down 0.73% [1][2]. - Notable tech stocks like Tesla, Amazon, and Apple experienced varying degrees of decline, with Tesla initially rising over 6% before closing at a 1.87% increase [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose nearly 2%, indicating strength in Chinese stocks, with individual companies like Zeekr and Xpeng showing significant gains [2][3]. - Concerns about the U.S. economy are reflected in consumer sentiment, with 27.4% of respondents in a recent survey expecting their financial situation to worsen, the highest level in 15 months [10][11]. Tariff Policies and Economic Impact - Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from Canada has raised the total tariff level to 50%, effective March 12 [3]. - The new tariffs are expected to increase inflation, reduce consumer purchasing power, and tighten financial conditions, leading to a potential slowdown in economic growth [12]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts express mixed views on the market's future, with some suggesting that the current fear-driven environment may present buying opportunities, while others warn of a potential recession [14][15]. - The S&P 500 index has retraced 8.7% from its recent peak, and the Nasdaq has dropped nearly 14%, indicating significant market volatility [6][7]. Analyst Predictions - Goldman Sachs has revised its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. down to 1.7% for 2025, reflecting concerns over the impact of tariff policies [11][12]. - The likelihood of a recession has increased, with former Treasury Secretary Summers estimating a near 50% chance, while other analysts suggest a 25-30% probability [13].

Core Viewpoint - Investors are reassessing whether the economic environment that supported nearly 25% annual gains in U.S. stocks over the past two years has significantly deteriorated [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Concerns - Wall Street is increasingly worried about signs of economic slowdown, with major stock indices experiencing declines due to escalating trade tensions and the imposition of tariffs [2][3]. - The Nasdaq Composite, heavily weighted with technology stocks, has dropped 7.5% since mid-February, while small-cap stocks and bank shares have also been severely impacted [4][12]. - The Conference Board's consumer confidence index saw its largest monthly decline since 2021, indicating weakening consumer sentiment [8]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - The new tariffs imposed by Trump, including a 25% tariff on major trading partners, have led to increased uncertainty in the market, prompting investors to reevaluate their positions [3][5]. - Some businesses reported that the tariffs have resulted in higher product prices, contributing to inflationary pressures [9][10]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the tariff policy could reduce U.S. GDP by approximately 0.2% by 2025, a lesser impact compared to other countries like Canada [11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 has declined about 5% from its historical high on February 19, with small-cap Russell 2000 down 9.4% since late January [12]. - Despite the market turmoil, defensive sectors like consumer staples have shown resilience, with Procter & Gamble's stock rising 0.4% during the week [12]. - The bond market has seen a strong rebound, with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index recording a 2.7% return year-to-date, driven by price increases and interest income [15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of the bond market's recovery, citing persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, which may limit the potential for significant interest rate cuts [16]. - The future trajectory of bonds will depend on inflation, interest rate policies, and the evolving trade stance of the Trump administration [17].