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建信期货生猪日报-20251230
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 01:51
Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 30, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On the spot market, both supply and demand are increasing. New Year's Day stocking and the potential growth of curing and sausage - making in some regions support the increase in slaughter volume, and the spot price is mainly fluctuating strongly [9] - In the futures market, pig supply is expected to increase slightly. Although demand elasticity is strong before the Spring Festival, the dual supply pressure from concentrated second - fattening in October and continuous capacity release continues to put pressure on contracts 01 and 03. However, compared with the same period last year, the price decline is significant, and the more severe epidemic in the north is relatively beneficial to contract 03 after the festival, with the price mainly fluctuating and rebounding. The progress of the epidemic needs to be continuously monitored [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 29th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened higher and then fluctuated downwards, closing in the negative territory. The highest was 11,830 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,670 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,715 yuan/ton, up 1.12% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 883 lots to 356,236 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 29th, the national average price of三元 pigs was 12.41 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Supply Side**: In the long term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. In October, second - fattening and weight - holding were concentrated, and the digestion speed of large pigs was relatively fast during the previous consumption peak. The number of second - fattening pens has been continuously decreasing. According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64%. Currently, the overall slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is normal [9] - **Demand Side**: Currently, second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, with a small amount of rolling replenishment demand. There is still an increase in demand for New Year's Day stocking, curing, and sausage - making. Terminal consumer demand continues to rise, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises remain high. The operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On December 29th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 201,000 heads, a decrease of 16,000 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week increase of 4,000 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 26,000 heads [9] 2. Industry News - Not provided in the report 3. Data Overview - **Actual and Planned Slaughter Volume**: The actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises in November was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [16] - **Small - Weight Pig Slaughter Proportion**: In the week of December 25th, the overall slaughter proportion of pigs weighing less than 90 kg was 5.51%, a decrease of 0.13% from the previous week [16] - **Breeding Profit and Cost**: As of December 25th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 124.5 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 4.7 yuan/head; the average profit per pig raised from purchased piglets was - 255.5 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/head. The expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 12.09 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling was 11.42 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/kg [16] - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of December 25th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 129.70 kg, a decrease of 0.48 kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%), an increase of 0.48 kg from the previous month (a month - on - month increase of 0.37%), and an increase of 1.94 kg from the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.52%) [16]
建信期货生猪日报-20251226
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 02:01
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 26, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to fluctuate as supply and demand both increase, but demand has weakened after the Winter Solstice. The futures market is under pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts due to increased supply, but the 03 contract may be relatively favorable after the Spring Festival, with increased bottom - oscillation frequency. The progress of the epidemic needs continuous tracking [9] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: On the 25th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose and fell in a volatile manner, closing down. The highest was 11,540 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,410 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,460 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 2,496 lots to 347,337 lots. The national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 11.58 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Analysis**: In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens is slightly higher than last year, increasing supply pressure before the Spring Festival. The planned slaughter of sample breeding enterprises in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64%. Currently, the overall slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is normal. Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state with a small amount of rolling replenishment demand. Due to the continuous cooling, the demand for curing and sausage - making has increased, and terminal consumer demand has continued to rise. However, after the Winter Solstice stocking, the slaughter rate and volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly decreased. The anti - dumping tax on imported pork from the EU has a limited impact [9] 2. Industry News - No specific news content provided 3. Data Overview - In November, the actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets is 306 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week - As of December 18, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 119.8 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 26.7 yuan/head; the average profit per pig raised with purchased piglets was - 238.2 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 26.2 yuan/head. The expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 12.09 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg for slaughter was 11.42 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from last week - As of the week of December 18, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 130.18 kg, up 0.55 kg from last week, a weekly increase of 0.42%, up 1.37 kg from last month, a monthly increase of 1.06%, and down 0.50 kg from the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 0.38% [14]
建信期货生猪日报-20251223
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-23 06:45
Report Overview - Report Name: Pig Daily Report - Date: December 23, 2025 - Industry: Pig industry 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. Second - round fattening and pig retention in October have increased supply pressure before the Spring Festival. The overall slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is normal, with a planned December slaughter of 27.72 million heads, a 4.64% monthly increase [9]. - On the demand side, second - round fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with a small amount of rolling restocking demand in December. Cold weather has increased demand for curing and enema, but after the Winter Solstice stocking, the slaughter rate and volume of slaughter enterprises have slightly decreased [9]. - Policy - wise, the anti - dumping tax on imported pork and pig by - products from the EU has a limited impact due to the low proportion compared to domestic consumption [9]. - Overall, the spot market will likely fluctuate due to increased supply and demand, with weakened demand after the Winter Solstice. The futures market will face double supply pressure from second - round fattening in October and continuous capacity release, putting pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. However, prices have dropped significantly compared to last year, and the increase in northern epidemics has made bottom - end fluctuations more frequent [9]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures market**: On the 22nd, the main 2603 pig futures contract opened slightly higher, then rose and fell back, closing up 0.49% at 11,345 yuan/ton. The total index position decreased by 8,417 lots to 346,875 lots [8]. - **Spot market**: On the 22nd, the national average price of三元 pigs was 11.43 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. 3.2 Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. 3.3 Data Overview - **Slaughter volume**: In November, the actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned December slaughter volume is 27.72 million heads, a 4.64% monthly increase and a 1.27% daily increase [13]. - **Piglet price**: The average market price of 15 - kg piglets is 306 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week [13]. - **Profit and cost**: As of December 18, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 119.8 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 26.7 yuan/head; the average profit per pig fattened from purchased piglets was - 238.2 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 26.2 yuan/head. The expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 12.09 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week, while the expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg for slaughter was 11.42 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.01 yuan/kg [13]. - **Average slaughter weight**: As of the week of December 18, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 130.18 kg, up 0.55 kg from last week (a 0.42% weekly increase), up 1.37 kg from last month (a 1.06% monthly increase), and down 0.50 kg from the same period last year (a 0.38% annual decrease) [13].
建信期货生猪日报-20251218
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-18 03:19
Report Information - Report title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 18, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot market is boosted by the demand for curing and enema, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend The supply of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increasing trend, and the demand elasticity before the Spring Festival still exists However, the concentrated second - fattening in October and the continuous release of production capacity form double supply pressure, which continues to put pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts, but the price decline compared with the same period last year is already large, and the recent increase in northern epidemics has led to a low - level rebound following the spot market, with an increasing frequency of bottom oscillations [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 17th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened higher, then rose and fell back, and oscillated higher, closing in the positive territory The highest price was 11,550 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,400 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,435 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from the previous day The total index position increased by 10,993 lots to 361,611 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 17th, the average price of ternary pigs outside the country was 11.60 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - **Supply Side**: In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increasing trend until the first half of next year In October, the second - fattening and weight - retaining were concentrated, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is currently relatively high, slightly higher than the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival In December, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises is 27.72 million heads, with a monthly planned increase of 4.64% Currently, the overall completion progress of groups in multiple regions is slightly slow, and there is a certain increase in acquisition difficulty due to the reduction of some channels [7] - **Demand Side**: Currently, the second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and there may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December With the continuous cooling of the weather, the curing and enema are increasing, the terminal consumer demand is rising, and the increase in orders from slaughtering enterprises significantly supports the slaughter volume The slaughter volume and the opening rate of slaughtering enterprises have increased On December 17th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 195,000 heads, an increase of 4,200 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 29,000 heads [7] - **Policy Side**: China imposes anti - dumping duties on imported related pork and pork by - products originating from the EU, but the impact is very limited due to the extremely low proportion compared with domestic consumption [7] 2. Data Overview - **Slaughter Volume**: The actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises in November was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36% The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, with a monthly planned increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13] - **Breeding Profit**: As of December 11th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 146 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 11.5 yuan/head The average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 264 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5.6 yuan/head [13] - **Breeding Cost**: As of December 11th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising was 12.09 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 yuan/kg The expected cost of purchasing piglets for fattening to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 11.41 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 yuan/kg [13] - **Slaughter Weight and Proportion**: In the week ending December 11th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 129.63 kg, a decrease of 0.19 kg from the previous week The proportion of pigs slaughtered under 90 kg was 5.43%, an increase of 0.38% from the previous week The proportion of pigs slaughtered over 150 kg was 6.9%, almost the same as the previous week [13]
建信期货生猪日报-20251217
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 01:23
Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Report Date: December 17, 2025 - Industry: Pig Farming 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increasing trend. There is dual supply pressure due to concentrated second - fattening and pressure - keeping in October and continuous capacity release, which continues to put pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. However, the price decline compared to the same period last year is large, and recent northern epidemics have intensified, triggering a low - level rebound sentiment, increasing the frequency of bottom oscillations. - On the spot market, both supply and demand are increasing. Second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with weak support for prices. Spot prices are oscillating strongly due to the demand for curing and enema [7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Futures: On the 16th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened flat, then bottomed out and rebounded, fluctuating higher, closing in the positive territory. The highest was 11360 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11260 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11350 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous day. The total position of the index increased by 1459 lots to 350618 lots [6]. - Spot: On the 16th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.52 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. 3.1.2 Market Analysis - Supply: In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increasing trend until the first half of next year. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens is relatively high, slightly higher than the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In December, the planned slaughter of sample breeding enterprises is 27.72 million heads, with a monthly planned increase of 4.64%. Currently, the overall completion progress of many regional groups is slightly slow [7]. - Demand: Currently, second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see mode. There may still be a small amount of rolling restocking demand in December. With the continuous cooling of the weather, the demand for curing and enema is increasing, and terminal consumer demand is rising. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are increasing, which significantly supports the slaughter volume. On December 16th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 190,800 heads, down 300 heads from the previous day, up 8600 heads week - on - week, and up 24,000 heads month - on - month [7]. - Policy: China imposes anti - dumping duties on imported related pork and pork by - products from the EU, but the impact is very limited due to the extremely low proportion compared to domestic consumption [7]. 3.2 Data Overview - November actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly planned increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13]. - As of December 11th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was - 146 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 11.5 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 264 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5.6 yuan/head [13]. - As of December 11th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising was 12.09 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 yuan/kg. The expected cost of purchasing piglets for fattening to 125 kg and then selling was 11.41 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 yuan/kg [13]. - In the week ending December 11th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 129.63 kg, a decrease of 0.19 kg from the previous week. The proportion of pigs under 90 kg in slaughter increased by 0.38% to 5.43% compared with the previous week, and the proportion of pigs over 150 kg was close to the same as the previous week at 6.9% [13].
建信期货生猪日报-20251211
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 02:30
Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 11, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Core Viewpoint - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly, and there is still demand elasticity before the Spring Festival. However, the concentrated pressure on the栏舍 in October and the continuous release of production capacity have created double supply pressure, continuing to put pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. But the price decline compared with the same period last year is already large, and the recent increase in the epidemic in the north has stimulated the sentiment of a low - level rebound, increasing the frequency of bottom oscillations. The spot market is mainly in a state of shock due to the weak enthusiasm of secondary fattening [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 10th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and then oscillated downward, closing in the negative. The highest was 11,480 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,305 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 5,022 lots to 356,347 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 10th, the average price of ternary pigs in the country was 11.39 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Supply - side**: In the long - term, the slaughter of live pigs may basically maintain a slight growth trend until the first half of next year. The secondary fattening and pressure on栏舍 were concentrated in October, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening栏舍 is currently high, reaching the level of the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In December, the planned slaughter of sample breeding enterprises is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64%. Currently, most breeding farms are slaughtering at a normal pace [8]. - **Demand - side**: The utilization rate of栏舍 is at a high level, and secondary fattening is mainly waiting and watching. There may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December. With the continuous cooling of the weather, the demand for curing and sausage - making has gradually increased, the terminal consumer demand has continued to rise, and the increase in orders from slaughtering enterprises has significantly supported the slaughter volume. The slaughter volume and operating rate of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On December 10th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 183,600 heads, a decrease of 1,300 heads from the previous day, an increase of 7,000 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 19,000 heads month - on - month [8]. 2. Industry News - No specific industry news content provided. 3. Data Overview - **Slaughter Volume**: The actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises in November was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of the week ending December 4th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 135.01 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.88 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 273 yuan/head, an increase of 2 yuan/head week - on - week [13]. - **Fattening Cost**: As of the week ending December 4th, the cost of purchasing 110kg pigs and fattening them to 140kg was 11.00 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125kg pigs and fattening them to 150kg was 11.39 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week [13]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week ending December 4th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 129.82kg, an increase of 0.60kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. Among them, the average slaughter weight of group farms was 124.71kg, an increase of 0.16kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and the average slaughter weight of散户 was 146.08kg, an increase of 0.91kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [13].
建信期货生猪日报-20251210
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 01:54
Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 10, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. The high utilization rate of second - fattening pens and the planned increase in December's slaughter volume add supply pressure before the Spring Festival. On the demand side, there is still a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December, and terminal consumption is rising, with an increase in slaughter volume [9]. - Spot prices mainly fluctuate as the supply - demand both increase, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening is weak. Futures prices are under pressure from double supply, but there is a low - level rebound sentiment due to increased northern epidemics, increasing the frequency of bottom - range fluctuations [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 9th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened flat, then fluctuated upwards, and closed with a positive candle. The highest price was 11,495 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,370 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,450 yuan/ton, up 1.55% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 11,377 lots to 361,369 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 9th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.33 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in the long - term. In December, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64%. Demand is rising, with an increase in pickling, enema, and fresh sales. On the 9th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 182,300 heads, a decrease of 300 heads from the previous day, an increase of 6,000 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 19,000 heads month - on - month [9]. 2. Industry News - Not provided in the given content 3. Data Overview - **Slaughter Volume**: In November, the actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of the week ending December 4, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 135.01 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.88 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding was - 273 yuan/head, an increase of 2 yuan/head week - on - week [13]. - **Breeding Cost**: As of the week ending December 4, the cost of purchasing 110kg pigs for fattening to 140kg was 11.00 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125kg pigs for fattening to 150kg was 11.39 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week [13]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week ending December 4, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 129.82kg, an increase of 0.60kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. Among them, the average slaughter weight of group - owned farms was 124.71kg, an increase of 0.16kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and the average slaughter weight of散户 was 146.08kg, an increase of 0.91kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [13].
建信期货生猪日报-20251209
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 02:27
1. Report Information - Report Date: December 09, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. The high utilization rate of second - fattening pens and the increase in planned slaughter in December add pressure on supply before the Spring Festival [7]. - On the demand side, the utilization rate of pens is high, and second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see mode. There may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December. With the continuous cooling of the weather, cured meat and sausage production are increasing, and fresh meat sales and terminal consumption are rising, leading to an increase in slaughter volume [7]. - Overall, the spot market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, but the weak enthusiasm of second - fattening entry provides weak support for prices, so the spot market may mainly fluctuate. The futures market is expected to face supply pressure due to factors such as concentrated second - fattening in October and continuous release of production capacity, with a medium - to - long - term weakening trend, but the frequency of bottom - range fluctuations may increase [7]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures - On the 8th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and fluctuated upwards, closing with a positive line. The highest price was 11,440 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,105 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,385 yuan/ton, up 2.29% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 5,192 lots to 372,746 lots [6]. Spot - On the 8th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.27 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. 4.2 Industry News - Not provided 4.3 Data Overview - In November, the actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13]. - As of the week of December 4, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 135.01 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.88 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 273 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/head [13]. - As of the week of December 4, the cost of purchasing 110kg pigs for fattening to 140kg was 11.00 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125kg pigs for fattening to 150kg was 11.39 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week [13]. - As of the week of December 4, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 129.82kg, an increase of 0.60kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. Among them, the average slaughter weight of group farms was 124.71kg, an increase of 0.16kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and the average slaughter weight of散户 was 146.08kg, an increase of 0.91kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [13].
建信期货生猪日报-20251208
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 02:20
行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 08 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 生猪行情: 图1:全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2:样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 每日报告 二、行业要闻 图1:养殖利润 元/头 图 ...
建信期货生猪日报-20251204
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 01:56
Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Date: December 04, 2025 - Industry: Pig [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The spot market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, but the enthusiasm of secondary fattening is weak and mainly in a wait - and - see state, so the price is mainly volatile. The supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly. The 2601 contract still has demand elasticity, but the relatively concentrated secondary fattening and pressure on pigs in October, combined with continuous capacity release, may form double supply pressure before the Spring Festival, putting continued pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. In the medium and long term, the trend is mainly weak and volatile, but since the price decline compared with the same period last year is already large, the frequency of bottom - range volatility may increase [9] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 3rd, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose and fell back, and closed down in the end. The highest was 11,280 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,205 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,235 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 8,152 lots to 371,564 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 3rd, the average price of ternary live pigs in the country was 11.28 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Supply Side**: In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight growth trend until the first half of next year. The secondary fattening and pressure on pigs were concentrated in October, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens is currently high, reaching the level of the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short term, the slaughter at the beginning of the month has slowed down [9] - **Demand Side**: The utilization rate of pens is at a high level, and secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. There may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December. The continuous cooling of the weather has led to the start of curing and sausage - making in Sichuan, and the fresh sales in many northern and southern regions have also improved. The terminal consumer demand has continued to rise, and the increase in orders from slaughtering enterprises has significantly supported the slaughter volume. The slaughter rate and volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On December 3rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 176,700 heads, an increase of 500 heads from the previous day, 2,800 heads compared with the previous week, and 17,800 heads compared with the previous month [9] 4.2 Data Overview - **Profit**: As of the week ending November 21, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 96.6 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 25 yuan/head; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 273 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 2 yuan/head [19] - **Cost**: As of the week ending November 21, the cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg was 14.47 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 14.89 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [19] - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week ending November 21, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.81 kg, an increase of 0.33 kg from the previous week (a weekly increase of 0.26%), an increase of 0.91 kg from the previous month (a monthly increase of 0.71%), and an increase of 2.08 kg compared with the same period last year (an annual increase of 1.64%) [19]