Report Information - Report Title: Methanol Industry Daily Report 2025-12-11 [2] - Analyst: Lin Jingyi [3] - Analyst Qualification: Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term total inventory of domestic methanol producers may accumulate due to factors such as the decline in MTO industry operation, abundant supply in the main production areas, and some large methanol plants increasing production. The port inventory has decreased significantly, and future attention should be paid to the unloading of foreign vessels. The demand side shows a downward trend in industry operation, and the MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2100 in the short term [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2074 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 21 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 46 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton. - The position of the main contract is 550,185 hands, a decrease of 91,950 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 160,992 hands. - The number of warehouse receipts is 8,723, an increase of 1 [3] 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2070 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1975 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 17 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 242 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 253 euros/ton, a decrease of 4 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 75 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.63 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.05 US dollars [3] 4. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 83.06 tons, a decrease of 10.82 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 40.38 tons, a decrease of 0.68 tons. - The import profit of methanol is 2.42 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, an increase of 18.57 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 352,800 tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 89.09%, unchanged [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 42.91%, a decrease of 0.07%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 7.88%, unchanged. - The operating rate of acetic acid is 69.62%, a decrease of 3.44%; the operating rate of MTBE is 69.97%, unchanged. - The operating rate of olefins is 90.82%, an increase of 0.89%; the on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton [3] 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.3%, an increase of 0.41%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.55%, an increase of 0.05%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 17.94%, a decrease of 0.57%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.94%, a decrease of 0.57% [3] 7. Industry News - As of December 10, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 35.28 tons, a decrease of 0.87 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 20.75 tons, a decrease of 3.22 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 13.45%. - As of December 10, the total inventory of China's methanol ports was 123.44 tons, a decrease of 11.5 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 10.82 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 0.68 tons. - As of December 11, the production loss of domestic methanol due to maintenance and production reduction was less than the output increase from the recovery of production capacity, and the overall output increased [3] 8. Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term total inventory of domestic methanol producers may accumulate. The port inventory has decreased significantly, and the future unloading of foreign vessels should be monitored. The overall olefin industry's operating rate has increased, but it is expected to decline due to the planned maintenance of Ningbo Fude. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2090 in the short term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2053 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread is - 76 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 642135 lots, down 81461 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 161954 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8722, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2070 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The East - Northwest price spread is 95 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 17 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 242 dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia is 317 dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 257 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton. The China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread is - 75 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.58 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.28 dollars/million British thermal units [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 83.06 tons, down 10.82 tons; in South China ports, it is 40.38 tons, down 0.68 tons. The methanol import profit is - 2.58 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, up 18.57 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 361500 tons, down 12200 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 89.09%, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.91%, down 0.07%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.88%, unchanged; the acetic acid operating rate is 69.62%, down 3.44%; the MTBE operating rate is 69.97%, unchanged; the olefin operating rate is 90.82%, up 0.89%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 797 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 19.89%, down 0.48%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.5%, down 0.27%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options is 18.51%, down 1.55% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - As of December 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample producers is 35.28 tons, down 0.87 tons (2.40% MoM), and the pending orders are 20.75 tons, down 3.22 tons (13.45% MoM). The total port inventory is 123.44 tons, down 11.5 tons. As of December 4, the domestic methanol - to - olefin device capacity utilization rate is 91.78%, up 0.88% MoM [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, methanol port inventories decreased slightly. This week, with a high volume of unplanned foreign vessels expected to arrive and a potential shutdown of an olefin plant in East China, import demand may weaken, and port methanol inventories are expected to increase. The actual situation depends on the unloading of foreign vessels [2]. - Last week, the load of Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant increased, leading to an overall rise in the olefin industry's operation rate. However, Ningbo Fude is expected to undergo maintenance, which may cause the overall operation rate to decline [2]. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2030 - 2130 in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2089 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; the 1 - 5 spread is - 88 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest is 802,701 lots, a decrease of 69,391 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 164,139 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts is 8,722, an increase of 1,146 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2070 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2007.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The East - Northwest price difference is 67.5 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 19 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 241 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 260 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 76 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 5.34 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.27 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 93.88 tons, an increase of 0.13 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 41.06 tons, a decrease of 1.54 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit is 8.73 yuan/ton, down 1.29 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, an increase of 18.57 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 361,500 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons; the methanol enterprise operation rate is 89.09%, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operation rate is 42.91%, down 0.07%; the dimethyl ether operation rate is 7.88%, unchanged [2]. - The acetic acid operation rate is 69.62%, down 3.44%; the MTBE operation rate is 69.97%, unchanged [2]. - The olefin operation rate is 90.82%, up 0.89%; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 792 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.19%, up 0.82%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.25%, up 0.2% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.93%, up 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.92%, up 0.33% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of December 3, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.15 tons, a decrease of 1.22 tons from the previous period, a 3.26% decrease; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 23.97 tons, an increase of 0.90 tons from the previous period, a 3.90% increase [2]. - As of December 3, the total methanol port inventory in China was 134.94 tons, a decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous data. East China saw inventory accumulation, while South China saw inventory reduction [2]. - As of December 4, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 91.78%, a 0.88% increase from the previous period. The load of Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant increased, leading to an overall rise in the industry's operation rate [2].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, methanol port inventory decreased slightly. With the support of reverse flow and trans - shipment, the提货 volume in the mainstream warehouses in East China remained stable, while the inventory in the mainstream warehouses in South China continued to decline. Next week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels is at a high level, and an olefin plant in East China is expected to shut down. The import demand may weaken, and port methanol inventory is expected to increase. [2] - The operating rate of the olefin industry increased slightly due to the rising load of olefin enterprises in East China. After the restart of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant, the load is expected to continue to rise in the short - term. [2] - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2050 - 2150 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2128 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of methanol was - 86 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. [2] - The position volume of the main methanol contract was 948,396 lots, a decrease of 30,173 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 180,854 lots, an increase of 15,188 lots. [2] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 5,800, an increase of 2,000. [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2115 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The price in Inner Mongolia was 2000 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. [2] - The price spread between East China and Northwest China was 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 17 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton. [2] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 249 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton. The CFR price in Southeast Asia was 317 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 257 euros/ton, a decrease of 3 euros/ton. The price spread between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 68 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.83 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.06 US dollars. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 93.88 tons, an increase of 0.13 tons. The inventory in South China ports was 41.06 tons, a decrease of 1.54 tons. [2] - The import profit of methanol was - 26.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.89 yuan/ton. The import volume in the current month was 161.26 tons, an increase of 18.57 tons. [2] - The inventory of domestic enterprises was 361,500 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 89.09%, an increase of 0.32%. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 42.98%, an increase of 0.97%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was 7.88%, an increase of 2.19%. [2] - The operating rate of acetic acid was 73.06%, an increase of 3.47%. The operating rate of MTBE was 69.97%, unchanged. [2] - The operating rate of olefins was 89.93%, an increase of 0.28%. The on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 802 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 19.87%, a decrease of 0.57%. The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.52%, a decrease of 0.03%. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 18.62%, a decrease of 1.05%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 18.61%, a decrease of 1.06%. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 3, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.15 tons, a decrease of 1.22 tons or 3.26% compared with the previous period. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 23.97 tons, an increase of 0.90 tons or 3.90% compared with the previous period. [2] - As of December 3, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 134.94 tons, a decrease of 1.41 tons compared with the previous data. East China saw inventory accumulation, while South China saw inventory reduction. [2] - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 91.01%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2200 in the short term. The port inventory has a potential to accumulate due to the expected high volume of incoming vessels, but the unloading time is uncertain as some vessels are affected by cargo quality. The demand side shows that the load of olefin enterprises in East China has increased, and the olefin industry's weekly average operating rate is expected to continue to rise [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2132 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is -100 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 978,569 lots, down 25,153 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -196,042 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 3,800 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2115 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1995 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest price spread is 105 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is -17 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 247 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton; in Southeast Asia, it is 317 dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 260 euros/ton. The price spread between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is -70 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price is 4.89 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.03 dollars/million British thermal units [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 93.75 tons, down 8.03 tons; at South China ports, it is 42.6 tons, down 3.55 tons. The methanol import profit is -19.78 yuan/ton, down 3.44 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, up 18.57 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 373,700 tons, up 15,000 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 89.09%, up 0.32% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 42.98%, up 0.97%; of dimethyl ether, it is 7.88%, up 2.19%; of acetic acid, it is 73.06%, up 3.47%; of MTBE, it is 69.97%. The operating rate of olefins is 89.93%, up 0.28%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is -786 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 19.87%, down 0.57%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.52%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for methanol is 19.67%, down 0.24% [2] Industry News - As of November 26, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 37.37 tons, up 1.50 tons or 4.19% from the previous period; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 23.07 tons, down 1.56 tons or 6.34%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 136.35 tons, down 11.58 tons from the previous period. As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 91.01%, up 0.9% [2]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2067 | -10 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -121 | 0 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 1200373 | -112307 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -204615 | -47203 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 2400 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2035 | 45 内蒙古(日,元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of November 12, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises decreased by 1.72 million tons compared to the previous period, a 4.44% decrease, while the orders to be delivered increased by 2.43 million tons, a 10.99% increase. The total methanol port inventory increased by 5.65 million tons, with inventory accumulation in East China and destocking in South China. The overall unloading speed was good [2]. - Recently, the loss of production capacity due to domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts exceeded the output of restored production capacity, leading to a decrease in overall production. Although some inland methanol projects resumed production last week, affected by the weak market outlook, the mid - upstream was relatively active in shipping, resulting in a decline in enterprise inventory [2]. - The Shandong Hengtong olefin plant stopped production as scheduled, causing the olefin industry's operating rate to continue to decline. There are no obvious changes in other enterprise plants in the short term, and the olefin industry's operating rate is expected to remain stable this week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2100 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2030 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of methanol was - 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main methanol contract was 1,458,503 lots, a decrease of 39,029 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 206,193 lots, an increase of 57,487 lots [2]. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 11,052, a decrease of 167 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 1995 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia was 1960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 234 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton, and the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 319 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 266 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 85 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.34 US dollars per million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.17 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 1.0564 million tons, an increase of 34,900 tons, and the inventory at South China ports was 487,200 tons, a decrease of 8400 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit was - 5.06 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.2 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 1.4269 million tons, a decrease of 332,900 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 369,300 tons, a decrease of 17,100 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises was 87.08%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 41.42%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points, the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points, the operating rate of acetic acid was 67.13%, a decrease of 2.48 percentage points, and the operating rate of MTBE was 70.25%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of olefins was 89.26%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points, and the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 498 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 17%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.53%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 21.33%, an increase of 1.71 percentage points, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.33%, an increase of 1.72 percentage points [2]

对冲之后上周烯烃行业开工继续下降，短期山东恒通预期停车，西北、华东企业负荷预期上涨，本周开工 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 或小幅下降。MA2601合约短线预计在2060-2150区间波动。 甲醇产业日报 2025-11-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2108 | 26 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -103 | 9 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 1407320 | -42441 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -250951 | 32740 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 10819 | -141 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2065 | 15 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1992.5 | 5 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 57.5 | 0 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 90.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37%. After the adjustment of the load of East China olefin enterprises, the overall olefin industry's start - up continued to decline last week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2080 - 2130 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 107 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 1405588 lots, an increase of 14769 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 259592 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 10790, a decrease of 124 [2] 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The East - West price difference was 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the Chinese main port was 243 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 273 euros/ton, an increase of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia was - 79 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.32 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.09 US dollars/million British thermal units [2] 4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 102.15 tons, an increase of 2.42 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 49.56 tons, a decrease of 1.36 tons. The import profit of methanol was - 8.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.01 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 386400 tons, an increase of 10300 tons. The start - up rate of methanol enterprises was 87.79%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde was 41.75%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points; the start - up rate of dimethyl ether was 5.79%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the start - up rate of acetic acid was 69.61%, a decrease of 3.86 percentage points; the start - up rate of MTBE was 68.55%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points; the start - up rate of olefins was 89.98%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefin was - 623 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan/ton [2] 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.43%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.92%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.13%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.12%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points [2] 7. Industry News - As of November 5, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 38.64 tons, an increase of 1.04 tons month - on - month, a rise of 2.75%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 22.11 tons, an increase of 0.55 tons month - on - month, a rise of 2.57%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 151.71 tons, an increase of 1.06 tons. The inventory at East China ports increased by 2.42 tons, while the inventory at South China ports decreased by 1.36 tons. Recently, the production capacity loss due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol was less than the output of the restored production capacity, and the overall output increased [2] 8. Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [2]

Report Information - Report Name: Methanol Industry Daily Report 2025-10-09 [2] - Analyst: Lin Jingyi - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03139610 - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021558 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term industry operating rate may slightly decline, and the MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2270 - 2350 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2290 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 56 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [3] - The main contract's open interest is 999,972 lots, an increase of 111,889 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 145,351 lots, a decrease of 7,775 lots [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 11,862 pieces, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2195 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2082.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan [3] - The East - Northwest price difference is 112.5 yuan/ton, down 32.5 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 95 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [3] - CFR China Main Port price is 261 dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia is 326 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - FOB Rotterdam price is 275 euros/ton, down 5 euros; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price difference is - 65 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price is 3.34 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.18 dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 103.27 tons, down 4.12 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 45.95 tons, down 2.44 tons [3] - The methanol import profit is - 32 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan; the monthly import volume is 175.98 tons, an increase of 65.71 tons [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 319,900 tons, down 20,600 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 82.53%, an increase of 2.62 percentage points [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 44.18%, an increase of 1.26 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.2%, an increase of 0.91 percentage points [3] - The acetic acid operating rate is 78.97%, down 3.44 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate is 64.23%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points [3] - The olefin operating rate is 88.18%, an increase of 4.37 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 925 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 12.16%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.33%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.01%, down 0.06 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17%, down 0.06 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of October 9th, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 33.94 tons, an increase of 1.95 tons, a 6.08% increase; the sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 11.52 tons, a decrease of 15.78 tons, a 57.79% decrease [3] - As of October 9th, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 154.32 tons, an increase of 5.10 tons. East China and South China ports have accumulated inventory [3] - As of October 9th, the domestic methanol - to - olefin device capacity utilization rate is 93.74%, a 4.49% increase. Some previously shut - down devices have restarted [3] 3.8 View Summary - Domestic methanol production has slightly increased, and the capacity utilization rate may continue to rise [3] - Inland enterprise inventory has increased, but inventory in the Northwest has decreased. Port inventory has accumulated and may continue to rise [3] - The MTO industry maintains high - level operation, but the short - term industry operating rate may slightly decline [3]