Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the MA2509 contract is a fluctuation within the range of 2380 - 2450 yuan/ton [2] - This week, the inventory of inland enterprises decreased. The increase in transport vehicles and capacity in the northwest led to a decline in freight rates, reducing logistics costs and stimulating traders' enthusiasm for提货. The port inventory increased significantly after the lifting of restrictions, with complex demand situations in different regions. The olefin industry's overall开工 increased slightly this week, but is expected to decline next week due to the potential shutdown of Shenhua Xinjiang's olefin plant [2] Summary of Each Section Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2388 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was - 109 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The main contract's holding volume was 436,677 lots, down 17,842 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 93,108 lots, down 1723 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 8688, down 60 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2380 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2110 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 8 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The CFR price at the Chinese main port was 270 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars; CFR in Southeast Asia was 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 262 euros/ton, up 16 euros. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia was - 63 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.09 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.08 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 64.2 tons, up 7 tons; at South China ports, it was 28.35 tons, up 4.71 tons. The import profit of methanol was 46.77 yuan/ton, up 2.97 yuan. The monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, down 7.21 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 293,700 tons, down 30,800 tons. The methanol enterprise's operating rate was 85.36%, up 1.38% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 43.29%, up 5.55%; dimethyl ether was 5.33%, up 0.14%; acetic acid was 91.4%, down 1.29%; MTBE was 67.79%, down 1.22%. The olefin operating rate was 85.27%, up 0.32%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefin was - 889 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 25.59%, down 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 12.66%. The 40 - day historical volatility was 27.52%, down 2.85%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 12.66%, down 2.86% [2] Industry News - As of August 6, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 92.55 tons, up 11.71 tons. The inventory in East China increased by 7.00 tons, and in South China by 4.71 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 29.37 tons, down 3.08 tons, a 9.50% decline. The sample enterprise's orders to be delivered were 24.08 tons, up 1.01 tons, a 4.37% increase. As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.11%, a 1.5% increase [2] Viewpoint Summary - Inland enterprise inventory decreased as transportation improved and freight rates dropped. Port inventory increased significantly after the lifting of restrictions, with different demand performances in different regions. The olefin industry's overall operating rate increased slightly this week but is expected to decline next week [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall methanol production has increased slightly as the output of the restored production capacity is more than the loss of the overhaul and production - reduction capacity. The inventory of inland enterprises has decreased due to lower logistics costs and increased trader pick - up enthusiasm. The port inventory has increased significantly as the ship entry and unloading speed has accelerated after the lifting of restrictions. The olefin industry's operating rate has slightly increased, and the MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2450 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2396 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 107 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 454,519 lots, down 29,728 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 91,385 lots, up 9,649 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,748, up 202 [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2385 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2105 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest price spread is 280 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 11 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 268 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 246 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread is - 65 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.01 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.06 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 57.2 tons, up 2.5 tons; in South China ports, it is 23.64 tons, up 5.76 tons. The import profit is 43.8 yuan/ton, down 3.51 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 122.02 tons, down 7.21 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 324,500 tons, down 15,300 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 85.36%, up 1.38% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 43.29%, up 5.55%; dimethyl ether is 5.33%, up 0.14%; acetic acid is 91.4%, down 1.29%; MTBE is 67.79%, down 1.22%; olefins is 85.27%, up 0.32%. The methanol - to - olefins disk profit is - 910 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 25.85%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility is 27.5%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.51%, down 0.42%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 15.52%, down 0.42% [2]. Industry News - As of August 6, the total methanol port inventory in China is 92.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons. East China and South China ports have both seen inventory increases. As of August 6, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 29.37 tons, a decrease of 3.08 tons, a 9.50% decline; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 24.08 tons, an increase of 1.01 tons, a 4.37% increase. As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 86.39%, a 0.32% increase [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2450 in the short - term [2]. - Last week, due to favorable macro - policies, the market trading atmosphere was good, and inland enterprises' shipments were smooth, leading to a significant decrease in enterprise inventory and a slight increase in pending orders. The port unloading speed was far lower than expected, and the methanol port inventory decreased unexpectedly. This week, the arrival of foreign vessels may increase significantly, and the port methanol inventory may increase significantly, but the impact of weather and other factors on the unloading speed needs to be noted. In terms of demand, the load of olefin enterprises in East China decreased slightly last week, and the overall domestic olefin industry's start - up decreased slightly. This week, the Zhongmei Mengda device is expected to resume, and the olefin industry's start - up will increase [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2434 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest was 576,028 lots, a decrease of 40,687 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 103,150 lots, an increase of 9,516 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 9,834, a decrease of 220 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2390 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2035 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2]. - The East - Northwest price difference was 355 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 273 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 235 euros/ton, an increase of 16 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 60 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.03 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.07 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 54.7 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 17.88 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit was 22.98 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.39 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, a decrease of 7.21 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 339,800 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons; the methanol enterprise start - up rate was 83.98%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde start - up rate was 37.74%, a decrease of 5.91 percentage points; the dimethyl ether start - up rate was 5.19%, unchanged [2]. - The acetic acid start - up rate was 92.69%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points; the MTBE start - up rate was 69.01%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points [2]. - The olefin start - up rate was 84.95%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 942 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 26.04%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 27.76%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 25.33%, a decrease of 5.18 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 25.32%, a decrease of 5.19 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 23, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 33.98 tons, a decrease of 1.25 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.55%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 24.48 tons, an increase of 0.17 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.70% [2]. - As of July 23, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 72.58 tons, a decrease of 6.44 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 8.70 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 2.26 tons [2]. - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 86.08%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the output of restored methanol production capacity in China exceeded the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production [2]. - This week, boosted by favorable macro - policies, the market trading atmosphere was good. Mainland enterprises had smooth sales, resulting in a slight increase in pending orders and a significant decrease in enterprise inventories [2]. - This week, the port unloading speed was far lower than expected, while the提货 and consumption were stable, leading to an unexpected reduction in methanol port inventories. Next week, the arrival of foreign vessels may increase significantly, and port methanol inventories may accumulate significantly, but the impact of weather and other factors on the unloading speed needs to be noted [2]. - In terms of demand, the load of olefin enterprises in East China decreased slightly this week, and the operation of other enterprises' devices was stable. The overall domestic olefin industry's operation rate decreased slightly. Next week, the Zhongmei Mengda device is expected to resume, and the olefin industry's operation rate will increase [2]. - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2450 - 2500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2480 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main methanol contract was 632,187 lots, a decrease of 34,449 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 89,760 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 10,134, a decrease of 50 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2400 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2037.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 362.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 11 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 276 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 330 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 218 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 54 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.06 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.2 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 54.7 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 17.88 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons [2]. - The import profit of methanol was 18.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.86 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 1.2202 million tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 339,800 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons; the operation rate of methanol enterprises was 82.69%, a decrease of 2.06 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operation rate of formaldehyde was 43.65%, a decrease of 1.59 percentage points; the operation rate of dimethyl ether was 5.19%, unchanged [2]. - The operation rate of acetic acid was 90.59%, a decrease of 3.32 percentage points; the operation rate of MTBE was 67.63%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points [2]. - The operation rate of olefins was 85.1%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 1059 yuan/ton, a decrease of 122 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.74%, an increase of 2.46 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 24.53%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 22.51%, an increase of 1.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.5%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 23, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 339,800 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.55%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 244,800 tons, an increase of 1700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.70% [2]. - As of July 23, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 725,800 tons, a decrease of 64,400 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 87,000 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 22,600 tons [2]. - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 86.08%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory of methanol shows a downward trend as some olefin plants resume and gradually consume the previously accumulated methanol inventory, but the methanol port inventory continues to increase due to smooth unloading of foreign vessels. The downstream demand remains weak, and the overall start - up rate of the olefin industry is expected to increase slightly in the short term. The MA2509 contract is recommended to wait and see by paying attention to the support level around 2370 in the short term [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2373 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 65 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 653886 lots, down 196 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 125584 lots, down 4127 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8786, down 145 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2380 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1972.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 407.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 7 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. CFR China Main Port is 275 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 333 dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 238 euros/ton, down 3 euros; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia is - 58 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.56 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.05 dollars [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 63.4 tons, up 6.35 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 15.62 tons, up 0.78 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 6.56 yuan/ton, up 14.55 yuan. The monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 352300 tons, down 4600 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 84.75%, down 3.43% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 45.24%, down 0.83%; the operating rate of acetic acid is 93.91%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.19%, unchanged; the operating rate of MTBE is 66.86%, up 1.8%. The operating rate of olefins is 85.15%, up 0.55%. The spot profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 899 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.83%, down 2.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.77%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.14%, down 1.1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.14%, down 1.09% [2] Industry News - As of July 16, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 35.23 tons, down 0.46 tons, a 1.28% decrease; the order backlog is 24.31 tons, up 2.19 tons, a 9.89% increase. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 79.02 tons, up 7.13 tons. As of July 16, the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 3.23 tons, down 0.05 tons, a 1.59% decrease [2] Viewpoint Summary - The overall inventory of methanol shows a downward trend, but the port inventory continues to increase. The downstream demand is weak, and the start - up rate of the olefin industry is expected to increase slightly in the short term [2] Prompt Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2450 in the short - term. The domestic methanol production has a slight increase as the output of restored capacity is more than that of overhauled and reduced - production capacity. The enterprise inventory drops significantly due to long - term contract settlement and order execution in the northwest region. The methanol port inventory accumulates greatly affected by downstream factors. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate declines slightly this week, and it may continue to decrease with the expected shutdown of the second - phase of Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin next week [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2417 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 16 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 857,159 lots, down 47,300 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 75,570 lots, up 10,629 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,867, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2710 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2000 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest price difference is 710 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 293 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 286 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 346 dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 270 euros/ton, down 11 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 60 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price is 3.39 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.16 dollars/million British thermal units [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 49.6 tons, up 5.9 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 17.45 tons, up 2.51 tons. The methanol import profit is 145.35 yuan/ton, down 3.55 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 341,600 tons, down 25,800 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 88.65%, up 0.67% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 50.39%, down 0.5%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 8.66%, up 0.96%; the acetic acid operating rate is 88.33%, down 7.32%; the MTBE operating rate is 63.71%, up 4.01%; the olefin operating rate is 89.22%, up 0.66%. The methanol - to - olefins disk profit is - 943 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 29.48%, up 0.04%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 25.7%, up 0.11%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.89%, down 3.03%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.9%, down 3% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of June 25, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 34.16 tons, down 2.58 tons (7.02% MoM); the pending orders of sample enterprises are 24.07 tons, down 3.31 tons (12.08% MoM). The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports is 67.05 tons, up 8.41 tons. The inventory in East China increases by 5.90 tons, and that in South China increases by 2.51 tons. As of June 26, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 87.96%, down 1.12% MoM [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term port methanol inventory may accumulate. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2460 - 2580 yuan/ton. The olefin industry's operation may continue to decline next week [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2543 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is 28 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 909435 lots, up 17514 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 58566 lots, down 6526 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7955, down 1804 [2] 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2770 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2000 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest price difference is 770 yuan/ton, up 102.5 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 227 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 304 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it is 331.5 dollars/ton, up 6.5 dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 279 euros/ton, up 5 euros/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 27.5 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars/ton [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.98 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.11 dollars/million British thermal units [2] 4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 43.7 tons, down 3.1 tons; at South China ports, it is 14.94 tons, down 3.48 tons. The methanol import profit is 22.87 yuan/ton, up 25.09 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 78.77 tons, up 31.47 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 367400 tons, down 11700 tons. The methanol enterprise operation rate is 87.98%, down 0.14%. As of June 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 36.74 tons, down 1.18 tons, a 3.10% week - on - week decrease; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 27.38 tons, down 2.83 tons, a 9.37% week - on - week decrease. As of June 18, the total inventory at Chinese methanol ports is 58.64 tons, down 6.58 tons [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operation rate is 50.89%, down 0.22%; the dimethyl ether operation rate is 7.7%, down 1.82%; the acetic acid operation rate is 95.65%, up 17.78%; the MTBE operation rate is 59.7%, up 4.98%; the olefin operation rate is 88.56%, up 2.08%. The methanol - to - olefin profit on the disk is - 1155 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants is 88.97%, a 0.54% week - on - week decrease [2] 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 22.16%, up 0.83%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.01%, up 0.49%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 26.88%, up 1.72%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 26.88%, up 1.7% [2]

甲醇产业日报 2025-06-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2290 | 8 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -63 | 0 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 809827 | -17645 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -75600 | 4759 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 9120 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2375 | 20 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1897.5 | 0 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 477.5 | 20 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 85 | 12 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 271 | 0 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 322 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 276 | 1 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -51 | 0 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2240 - 2300 yuan/ton in the short - term [2] - Recently, the output of the resumed production capacity of domestic methanol is more than that of the overhaul and production - reduction capacity, with a slight increase in overall output. The shortage of transportation capacity in the northwest production area slows down the enterprise's shipping rhythm, and the inventory of domestic methanol enterprises continues to increase this week. The unloading of foreign vessels basically meets expectations, and the methanol port inventory accumulates as scheduled. The demand side shows that the methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate maintained growth last week [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2270 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 45; the 9 - 1 spread is - 60 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4. The main contract's open interest is 835,598 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,852; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 76,728 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 2,600, with a week - on - week increase of 1,000 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2285 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1865 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 12.5. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 420 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 17.5; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 15 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 260 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3; in Southeast Asia, it is 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 257 euros/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 60 US dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.72 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 37.1 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4.4; at South China ports, it is 15.2 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.14. The import profit of methanol is - 1.11 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.28. The monthly import volume is 78.77 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 31.47. The inventory of inland enterprises is 249,900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 14,700. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 87.19%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 51.04%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.24; dimethyl ether is 10.25%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.73; acetic acid is 76%, with a week - on - week decrease of 15.07; MTBE is 54.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.11; olefins is 85.19%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.37. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 662 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 71 [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.53%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.58; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.63%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.63. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.18%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.52; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.19%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.51 [2] Industry News - As of June 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 37.05 tons, an increase of 1.55 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 4.38%; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 26.22 tons, an increase of 1.23 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 4.92% [2] - As of June 4, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 58.12 tons, an increase of 5.82 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China accumulates, with an increase of 5.13 tons; in South China, it accumulates, with an increase of 0.69 tons [2] - As of May 29, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 85.19%, a week - on - week increase of 1.35% [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2225 | 17 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -64 | 3 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 841450 | 17111 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -115544 | 2062 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 1600 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2255 | 15 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1852.5 | -32.5 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 402.5 | 47.5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 30 | -2 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 257 | 1 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 320 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 251 | -1 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | 15 | 0 | | 上游情况 | NY ...