Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market in recent years has been influenced by factors such as upstream device production, device maintenance and restart, MTO profit - driven device operations, overseas device status affecting imports, and coal price trends. Currently, as China's methanol production nears the end of the investment cycle, supply - demand mismatches from the phased start - stop of existing devices are more prominent. In the past three years, MTO profit, coal price trends, and import expectations have dominated the domestic methanol market, with import impacts being particularly significant this year [1]. - The PP - 3MA spread is negatively correlated with methanol prices and has upper and lower boundaries. It can be used to judge the relative level of methanol prices and guide short - to - medium - term market judgments. Currently, due to the Iran device shutdown from the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the 09 contract is unlikely to see significant inventory accumulation before, resulting in a strong basis and high monthly spreads. The PP - 3MA spread is at a year - on - year low, indicating limited upward space for methanol, but the short - term probability of a sharp decline is also low, and the market is likely to enter an interval adjustment [2]. - In 2024, imports and upstream - downstream device start - stop dominated the market. From January to May, low overseas device operation and import levels, along with stable downstream demand, led to rising prices. From May to September, MTO losses and device shutdowns caused prices to fall. In the fourth quarter, improved downstream profits, increased olefin operation, and macro - policy expectations drove price fluctuations, and prices were more likely to rise in the traditional peak season [6]. - In 2023, the market was mainly influenced by coal prices and upstream - downstream device operations. Before the Spring Festival, low inventory and improved macro - sentiment pushed prices up, and then falling coal prices led to a decline in methanol prices. After June, coal prices stabilized, and downstream demand improvement and device restarts drove price increases [26]. - In 2025, the contradictions are concentrated in overseas factors and domestic upstream - downstream industrial chain profit distribution. Falling coal prices have led to a decline in methanol costs, and the supply is adjusted through device start - stop. In the first half of the year, import levels affected the market, and port MTO device start - stop influenced the price trend. Traditional demand has weakened due to the real - estate downturn [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 2024 Market Review - **January - May**: Low overseas device operation, import negotiation stalemate with Iran, low import levels, stable downstream demand, low port inventory, and rising methanol prices [6]. - **May - September**: High methanol prices led to MTO losses, port device shutdowns, and falling methanol prices [6]. - **Fourth Quarter**: Improved downstream profits, increased olefin operation, macro - policy expectations, and price fluctuations. Prices were more likely to rise in the traditional peak season [6]. - **Inventory and Spread**: In the first half of the year, imports were lower than expected, port inventory was low, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread were strong. In the second half of the year, high domestic supply and port olefin device shutdowns led to high inventory, and the 1 - 5 spread turned negative [9]. PP - 3MA Spread Analysis - The PP - 3MA spread is negatively correlated with methanol prices and can be used to judge the relative level of methanol prices. Currently, it is at a year - on - year low, indicating limited upward space for methanol, but the short - term probability of a sharp decline is also low [2]. 2023 Market Review - Before the Spring Festival: Low inventory and improved macro - sentiment led to rising methanol prices. After the festival, falling coal prices caused a decline in methanol prices [26]. - January - May: Coal price decline was the main factor for the methanol price drop, with short - term rebounds and speed variations related to upstream - downstream device operations and overseas devices [26]. - After June: Coal prices stabilized. In late June, the Iran natural gas price increase drove a short - term price increase. In August, MTO device restarts and new device investment expectations led to rising prices [26]. 2025 Market Outlook - **Supply**: Falling coal prices have led to a decline in methanol costs. Domestic supply is adjusted through device start - stop, and in the first half of the year, imports are a major supply - side variable [30]. - **Demand**: Port MTO device start - stop affects the market rhythm. Initially, reduced imports drove price increases, but then MTO losses and device shutdowns led to price drops. Traditional demand has weakened due to the real - estate downturn [30][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Israel-Iran geopolitical conflict intensifies, leading to more shutdowns of Iranian methanol plants, and the port basis strengthens significantly again with strong short-covering sentiment in paper contracts. The current stage is mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts with high volatility. The short - term arrival pressure in China in June is still high, and the ports are accumulating inventory in the short term. Attention should be paid to when the reduction of imports due to problems with Iranian plants in July - August will be realized and the loading situation in Iran. In the inland area, the coal - based methanol operation rate remains high, but the inventory recovery rate of inland plants is still slow. The inland demand resilience exceeds expectations, and the operation rates of acetic acid and MTBE have rebounded rapidly [2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, and the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures contract, as well as the spreads between different methanol futures contracts [6][8][20]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of inland coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China, the import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [24][28][29]. III. Methanol Operation & Inventory - It includes figures on the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), the sample inventory of inland plants, and the operation rate of methanol in China (including integrated ones) [32][34]. IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures display various regional price differences, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, between Taicang and southern Shandong, etc. [36][42][50]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [51][53]. Market Data - **Inland Data**: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (+0), the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol is 693 yuan/ton (-5). Inner Mongolia northern line methanol price is 1988 yuan/ton (-5), with a basis of 133 yuan/ton (+4); Inner Mongolia southern line is 2000 yuan/ton (+110). Shandong Linyi is 2325 yuan/ton (-55), with a basis of 70 yuan/ton (-46); Henan is 2270 yuan/ton (-30), with a basis of 15 yuan/ton (-21); Hebei is 2195 yuan/ton (+65), with a basis of 0 yuan/ton (+74). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 379,120 tons (+8,630), and the northwest factory inventory is 237,100 tons (+2,600). Longzhong's inland factory pending orders are 302,090 tons (+39,910), and the northwest factory pending orders are 167,000 tons (+17,000) [1]. - **Port Data**: Taicang methanol is 2615 yuan/ton (+30), with a basis of 160 yuan/ton (+39), CFR China is 298 US dollars/ton (+13), the East China import spread is - 31 yuan/ton (-16). Changzhou methanol is 2500 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2505 yuan/ton (+25), with a basis of 50 yuan/ton (+34). Longzhong's total port inventory is 652,200 tons (+71,000), Jiangsu port inventory is 312,000 tons (+30,700), Zhejiang port inventory is 156,000 tons (+15,000), Guangdong port inventory is 124,000 tons (+21,000); the downstream MTO operation rate is 88.56% (+2.07%) [2]. - **Regional Spread Data**: The spread between northern Shandong and the northwest is - 8 yuan/ton (+20), between Taicang and Inner Mongolia is 78 yuan/ton (+35), between Taicang and southern Shandong is 40 yuan/ton (+85); the spread between southern Shandong and Taicang is - 390 yuan/ton (-85); the spread between Guangdong and East China is - 290 yuan/ton (-5); the spread between East China and Sichuan - Chongqing is 75 yuan/ton (-80) [2]. Strategy - The strategy is to cautiously make long - hedging operations [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The port continued to accumulate inventory this week due to limited overseas plant maintenance and increased arrival pressure. The inventory accumulation rate in the future needs attention. In the inland area, the coal - based methanol production remains at a high level, and the inventory of inland factories continued to rise this week. The low operation rate of MTBE in traditional downstream industries has dragged down the inland demand. Although the methanol production profit has declined, it is still higher than the same period last year [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol basis in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01 futures contracts) [7][9][21]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][28][30]. 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated ones) [33][35]. 4. Regional Price Differences It shows various regional price differences, like the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, etc. [2][37][46]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits The report includes the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [43][53]. Market Data - **Inland Market**: The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (unchanged). The production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 580 yuan/ton (+13). The prices of methanol in different inland regions have increased to varying degrees. The inventory of inland factories and the volume of pending orders have both increased. For example, the inventory of inland factories is 370,490 tons (+15,540), and the pending orders of inland factories are 262,180 tons (+12,288) [1]. - **Port Market**: The price of methanol in Taicang is 2302 yuan/ton (+27), and the port inventory has increased significantly. The total port inventory is 581,200 tons (+58,240). The downstream MTO operation rate is 85.19% (+1.37%). There are also changes in regional price differences [2]. Strategy The recommended strategy is to cautiously short - sell for hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core View - The open positions of both Iranian and non-Iranian methanol plants are increasing, and the overall operating level remains high. The pressure on port arrivals is rising, causing the port basis to gradually weaken. Inland coal-based methanol plants are experiencing minor maintenance, with the overall operating rate still high, but the inventory accumulation pace of inland methanol plants has slowed down. The MTBE load is low, dragging down the demand in Shandong. The methanol production profit remains relatively high [3]. - The recommended strategy is to cautiously short and hedge [4]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - Period Structure - The report shows various charts related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in Taicang and different regions against the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][11] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - There are charts about the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China, and the import price differences between different regions [27][30][33] III. Methanol开工, Inventory - Charts display the total methanol port inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate [36][38] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report presents price differences between different regions such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, and Taicang - Lunan [40][48][57] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - There are charts showing the production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][61]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The basis of methanol at ports has weakened again. - There are concerns about inventory accumulation at ports due to increased import pressure in June, while the inland is in a continuous inventory accumulation cycle. - Methanol production profit remains relatively high. - The recommended strategy is to cautiously short - hedge [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in Taicang, different regions' spot - to - futures basis, and inter - term spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][22]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, MTO profit in East China, and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China [26][30]. III. Methanol开工, Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate is presented through figures [34][36]. IV. Regional Spreads - The report provides figures on various regional spreads, such as the spread between northern Shandong and the northwest, and between Taicang and southern Shandong [38][47][52]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production margins of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE, and Henan dimethyl ether [52][55].

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The expected methanol inventory accumulation cycle did not continue, and the port inventory declined again this week. However, there were ship cargo diversions to Taicang in the MTO area, causing the previously high methanol port basis to drop rapidly. There are concerns about a rapid increase in Taicang port inventory next week, and an inflection point in inventory is anticipated. The overseas operating rate has slightly declined from its high level, and Iranian plants have reduced their loads due to inventory pressure, but there is still pressure for an increase in Chinese imports. In the inland region, the coal-based methanol operating rate has returned to a high level, and the inland is gradually entering an inventory accumulation cycle. Among traditional downstream industries, MTBE has reduced its load due to losses, while acetic acid production still shows some resilience [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - Period Structure - Figures 1 - 8 show the basis between methanol spot prices in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) and the main futures contract, with units in yuan/ton - Figures 9 - 11 show the price spreads between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01), with units in yuan/ton [6] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figure 12 shows the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, with units in yuan/ton - Figure 13 shows the MTO profit (PP&EG type) in East China, with units in yuan/ton - Figure 14 shows the import price difference (excluding additional points) between Taicang methanol and CFR China, with units in yuan/ton - Figures 15 - 17 show the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China, with units in US dollars/ton [6] III. Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory - Figure 18 shows the total methanol port inventory, with units in tons - Figure 19 shows the MTO/P operating rate (including integrated operations), with units in % - Figure 20 shows the sample inventory of inland factories, with units in tons - Figure 21 shows the Chinese methanol operating rate (including integrated operations), with units in % [6] IV. Regional Price Spreads - Figures 22 - 27 show the price spreads between different regions (Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200), with units in yuan/ton [6] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures 28 - 31 show the production gross profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The explosion at the Shahid Rajaee Port in Iran on April 26 had limited impact as the methanol shipping port Assalueh was operating normally and the port resumed cargo import and export on April 27 [2] - From the port perspective, downstream MTO plants had maintenance plans, the external market operating rate was high, and imports were increasing, but the inland market was strong, and the port was still destocking, with the inventory inflection point yet to be realized. The future port restocking cycle depends on inland supply and demand [2] - From the inland perspective, the peak of coal - based methanol maintenance has passed, but the increase in operating rate is slow. The traditional downstream operating rate maintains some resilience, and the future variable lies in its change. The production profit of coal - based methanol is still high [2] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents various charts related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, and basis between different regional spot and main futures [6][8][10] - It also shows the price differences between different methanol futures contracts, such as methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 contracts [19][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Charts display the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [24][30][29] III. Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory - Charts show the total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [33][35] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report provides charts on regional price differences, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [37][42][45] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts present the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [49][52]