Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Industry Daily Report 2025 - 07 - 08 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03109641 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0018457 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - International supply is expected to be loose due to the improved prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries with the arrival of the monsoon season and the year - on - year increase in Brazil's export volume, which suppresses raw sugar prices. In China, the price trends at home and abroad are diverging, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and import pressure will be released, suppressing sugar prices. On the demand side, the summer consumption peak season brings certain support to prices. Overall, recent raw sugar fluctuations indirectly affect domestic sugar trends, but domestic demand is recovering and performing stronger than the external market. Later, both supply and demand will be strong, and price fluctuations will intensify. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imports and summer consumption [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5747 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the main contract position is 294975 hands, down 1089 hands; the warehouse receipt quantity is 23092 sheets, down 312 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 38817 hands, down 2150 hands; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 106 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The import processing estimated price (within quota) of Brazilian sugar is 4504 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4545 yuan/ton, up 177 yuan. The import estimated price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5723 yuan/ton, up 243 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5777 yuan/ton, up 232 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5865 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 6020 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and 6120 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons; the industrial inventory of sugar is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 350000 tons, up 220000 tons; Brazil's monthly sugar export volume is 225.66 million tons, up 70.4 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for sugar is 8.29%, down 0.01 percentage point; that of the at - the - money put option is 8.3%, down 0.01 percentage point. The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.38%, up 0.07 percentage point; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.83%, down 0.08 percentage point [2] Industry News - Brazil exported 3.359 million tons of sugar in June, a year - on - year increase of 5.24%. As of June in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, Brazil's cumulative sugar export volume was 7.1682 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.09% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia have improved, with expectations of a recovery in production. Coupled with the increased supply of Brazilian sugar, the price of raw sugar is suppressed. Domestically, in May 2025, China's sugar imports were 350,000 tons, a significant increase of 220,000 tons compared to April and a sharp increase of 1954.9% year - on - year. The import window is open, and the import pressure has increased. However, approaching the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has inventory needs. Seasonal consumption such as cold drinks may pick up, providing some support for prices, slowing down the decline, and showing a short - term adjustment trend. Later, pay attention to the arrival of goods at ports and summer consumption [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5,757 yuan/ton, up 47 from the previous period; the main contract position is 342,761 lots, down 6,312; the number of warehouse receipts is 24,612, down 150; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 59,196 lots, up 4,497; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,450 yuan/ton, up 57; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,653 yuan/ton, up 75; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,460 yuan/ton, up 45; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,665 yuan/ton, up 59; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,860 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 6,070 yuan/ton, up 30; in Liuzhou is 6,110 yuan/ton, up 20 [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60; the cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 835.09 million tons, down 12.86; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 811.38 thousand hectares, up 86.92 [2] Industry Situation - The national industrial inventory of sugar is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47; the monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, up 220,000; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 2.2566 billion tons, up 704,000; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,460 yuan/ton, down 66; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,470 yuan/ton, down 54; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 267 yuan/ton, down 84; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 255 yuan/ton, down 68 [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, down 0.9 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.36%, down 2; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 9.36%, down 2; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.99%, up 1.42; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.83%, up 0.3 [2] Industry News - The Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture stated that the country's sugar production in 2025 is 2.75 million tons, higher than last year's 2.45 million tons and the highest in the past five years. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia have improved, with expectations of a recovery in production [2]