1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly with a weekly increase of about 0.63%. The estimated surplus of global sugar in the new season has been mostly revised upwards. The sugar production in Thailand and India has recovered, which has a key impact on the supply side. India will resume sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, with a preliminary market expectation of 2 million tons. In the domestic market, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production in the 2025/26 season, with a total expected output of about 1.4 million tons. In the short term, the supply of northern beet sugar will gradually increase. In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a decrease of about 280,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 35.8% year-on-year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons or 9.4% year-on-year. The progress of imported sugar significantly accelerated in the third quarter. According to the forecast of the Market Early - Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China's total imports this year will exceed 5 million tons. Coupled with the opening of the window for out - of - quota imported sugar, the pressure of future import volume is still obvious. The downstream demand is in a seasonal decline, and it is expected that the demand for refined sugar and beverages will decrease in the future. However, the cost support for the futures price is gradually emerging, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly with a weekly increase of about 0.63% [5] - **Market Outlook**: The estimated surplus of global sugar in the new season has been mostly revised upwards. India will resume sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, with an expected 2 million tons. In the domestic market, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have started production, with an expected output of 1.4 million tons. In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 35.8% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, cumulative imports were 3.16 million tons, an increase of 9.4% year - on - year. The annual import volume is expected to exceed 5 million tons. Downstream demand is in a seasonal decline, but the cost support for the futures price is emerging, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5] - **Future Focus**: Domestic production and sales, and new - season output forecast [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Market**: The price of the US Sugar March contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.87% [10] - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 15.88 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.53 cents per pound from last week [17] - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.63%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 78,827 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 8,185. The price difference between the 1 - 5 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was + 48 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 304 yuan/ton [19][26][30] - **Spot Market**: As of October 24, the price of sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,780 yuan/ton, in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,750 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,730 yuan/ton. The estimated in - quota profit of Brazilian sugar was 1,624 yuan/ton, an increase of 134 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated out - of - quota profit was 251 yuan/ton, an increase of 152 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated in - quota profit of Thai sugar was 1,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated out - of - quota profit was 177 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton from last week [36][42] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Production Increase**: As of the end of September 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year. As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a decrease of 27.91% from the previous month and an increase of 5.45% year - on - year. In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 280,000 tons. From January to September 2025, cumulative imports were 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.89% [45][48][52] - **Demand Side - General Sales Rate**: As of the end of September 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 12.03% year - on - year. In September 2025, China's monthly refined sugar production was 539,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%, and the monthly soft drink production was 15.9167 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [57][61] 3.4 Options and Stock - Futures Related Market - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is presented in the chart [62] - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: The price - to - earnings ratio chart of Nanning Sugar Industry is presented [66]

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Sugar Market Weekly Report [2] - **Report Date**: September 26, 2025 [2] - **Researcher**: Wang Cuibing [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 0.31%. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased, and export capacity slowed down slightly. Domestically, northern sugar mills have started production on a small scale, and the new - season sugar is expected to increase slightly. Spot prices are stable with a weakening trend. The control of imported syrup from Thailand has been relaxed, and the amount of syrup is expected to increase slightly. The sugar sales progress in Guangxi is slow due to the extrusion of processed sugar. However, typhoon - induced lodging of sugarcane in Guangxi and other places provides short - term support, while sufficient supply suppresses upward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.31% [5] - **Market Outlook**: As of the week of September 24, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased from 85 to 76, and the quantity of waiting - to - be - shipped sugar decreased from 328.27 million tons to 310.39 million tons. The overnight Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract closed down 0.05%. Domestically, northern sugar mills started production on a small scale, and new - season sugar is expected to increase slightly. Spot prices are stable with a weakening trend. The control of imported syrup from Thailand is relaxed, and the amount of syrup is expected to rise slightly. The slow sugar sales in Guangxi are affected by processed sugar, but there is short - term support due to typhoon - affected sugarcane lodging, and upward movement is suppressed by sufficient supply [5] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [6] - **Future Focus Factors**: Domestic sugar production and sales situation, new - season output [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Market**: The price of the US Sugar March contract rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.68%. As of September 16, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 106,344 lots, a decrease of 33,266 lots from the previous week; long positions were 175,246 lots, an increase of 5,166 lots; short positions were 281,590 lots, a decrease of 28,100 lots [12] - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 15.72 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.42 cents per pound from last week [17] - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.31%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 80,973 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 9,464 [20][26] - **Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread**: The spread between the Zhengzhou Sugar 1 - 5 contracts was + 36 yuan/ton, and the basis of spot - Zhengzhou sugar was + 412 yuan/ton [30] - **Spot Market**: As of September 26, the price of Liuzhou sugar in Guangxi was 5,890 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan was 5,810 yuan/ton [37] - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,506 yuan/ton, a decrease of 119 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,348 yuan/ton, a decrease of 98 yuan/ton; the estimated profit outside the quota was 178 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton [43] 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Production Increase**: As of the end of August 2025, the total sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03% [46] - **Supply Side - Industrial Inventory**: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% [49] - **Supply Side - Imported Sugar Quantity**: In August 2025, China's sugar imports were 830,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% and a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 2.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.15% [53] - **Demand Side - Sugar Sales Rate**: As of the end of August 2025, all sugar mills in the 2024/25 sugar - pressing season had stopped production. The total sugar production in this sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03%. The cumulative sugar sales were 9.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1388 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, 0.65 percentage points faster than the same period last year [57] - **Demand Side - Finished Sugar and Soft Drink Production**: In August 2025, China's monthly production of finished sugar was 454,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.3%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 17.7578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [61] 4. Options and Stock - Related Markets - **Options Market**: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is provided, but specific numerical data is not given [62] - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: A graph of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is presented, but specific analysis is not provided [67]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.31%. The price of the ICE US Sugar October contract also rose, with a weekly increase of about 1.41%. The international raw sugar spot price was 16.15 cents per pound, down 0.19 cents per pound from last week [5][11][15]. - Internationally, institutions predict that sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of August will increase by 17.3% to 3.84 million tons, and the sugarcane crushing volume is expected to increase by 9.5% year - on - year to 49.5 million tons. Domestically, the sugar sales data in August was lower than the same period in previous years, but the inventory remained relatively low. Downstream is in the pre - holiday stocking stage, and rigid demand is expected to support prices. In the short term, the decline of sugar prices may be limited [5]. - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term. Future factors to focus on include domestic production and sales and pre - holiday stocking [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.31% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: International sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase. Domestically, sales in August were lower than usual, but inventory was low. Downstream stocking may support prices, and short - term price decline may be limited [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5]. - **Future Focus**: Domestic production and sales and pre - holiday stocking [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Futures**: The price of the US Sugar October contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.41%. As of September 2, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 85,805 lots, an increase of 11,067 lots from the previous week [11]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot**: The international raw sugar spot price was 16.15 cents per pound, down 0.19 cents per pound from last week [15]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.31%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 51,979 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 11,599 [18][23]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread**: The spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was + 23 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 430 yuan/ton [27]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 12, the price of Liuzhou sugar in Guangxi was 5,970 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan was 5,850 yuan/ton [34]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,572 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 183 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,365 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 177 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from last week [40]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Production**: As of the end of August 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [43]. - **Supply Side - Industrial Inventory**: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91% month - on - month, and an increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% year - on - year [46]. - **Supply Side - Imported Sugar Quantity**: In July 2025, China's sugar imports were 740,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.56% and a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.41% [50]. - **Demand Side - Sugar Sales Rate**: As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar sales were 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 1.1388 million tons year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, an acceleration of 0.65 percentage points year - on - year [54]. - **Demand Side - Finished Sugar and Soft Drink Production**: In July 2025, China's monthly production of finished sugar was 410,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 64.7%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 17.9663 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [58]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Market - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of sugar this week is provided, but no specific data is given [59]. - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but no specific analysis is given [64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased with a weekly decline of approximately 1.45%. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts that the global sugar supply - demand gap in the 2025/26 season will be only 231,000 tons, significantly smaller than the revised value of 4.879 million tons in the 2024/25 season. This gap can be ignored before the new season starts. In China, the sugar sales data in Guangxi and Yunnan in August decreased year - on - year. However, as the downstream is in the stocking period for the Double Festivals, rigid demand is expected to support prices, and short - term sugar price declines may be limited. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.45% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The global sugar supply - demand gap in 2025/26 is expected to be 231,000 tons. In China, August sugar sales in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased year - on - year. Guangxi sold 260,200 tons in August, a year - on - year decrease of 96,900 tons, and Yunnan sold 130,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10,100 tons. But the downstream's Double Festival stocking may support prices [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract [5]. - **Future Focus**: Domestic production and sales, and Double Festival stocking [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Market**: The price of the US Sugar October contract dropped this week, with a weekly decline of about 3.92%. As of August 26, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 74,738 lots, an increase of 4,445 lots from the previous week. Long positions were 190,535 lots, a decrease of 2,556 lots, and short positions were 265,273 lots, an increase of 1,889 lots [11]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 16.8 cents per pound, an increase of 0.06 cents per pound from last week [15]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.45%. The top 20 net positions in sugar futures were - 44,496 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 12,476 [19][26]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures Spread**: The 1 - 5 contract spread of Zhengzhou sugar futures was + 14 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 447 yuan/ton [30]. - **Domestic Spot Market**: As of September 5, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,970 yuan/ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,835 yuan/ton [34]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated in - quota profit for Brazilian sugar was 1,527 yuan/ton, an increase of 79 yuan/ton from last week; the out - of - quota profit was 152 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton. The estimated in - quota profit for Thai sugar was 1,371 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota profit was 173 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan/ton [40]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply Side - Production Increase**: As of the end of July 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03% [44]. - **Supply Side - Industrial Inventory**: As of the end of July 2025, the national sugar industrial inventory in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 1.61 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 100,000 tons, or 5.8% [47]. - **Supply Side - Imported Sugar Quantity**: In July 2025, China's sugar imports were 740,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.56% and a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.41% [52]. - **Demand Side - Faster Sales Rate**: As of the end of July, the cumulative national sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2984 million tons, or 15.73%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 86.56%, 3.74 percentage points faster year - on - year [56]. - **Demand Side - Output of Finished Sugar and Soft Drinks**: In July 2025, China's monthly output of finished sugar was 410,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 64.7%. The monthly output of soft drinks was 17.9663 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [60]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Markets - **Option Market**: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is presented in the report, but specific data is not described in the text [61]. - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: The report shows the price - earnings ratio chart of Nanning Sugar Industry, but specific data is not described in the text [65].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined with a weekly drop of about 1.16%. Globally, the production outlook of major sugar - producing countries in Asia is favorable, leading to a looser supply expectation. However, the market is concerned about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season, and there are signs of improved demand, causing the raw sugar price to maintain a low - level oscillating trend. In the domestic market, the profit window for out - of - quota imports remains open, and the import pressure is released. The sugar import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade, and August - September is still the peak period. Beet sugar will start to be crushed in September, increasing the supply temporarily. On the demand side, the pre - holiday stocking for the upcoming double festivals will boost consumption. In terms of inventory, due to the good production and sales progress in the early stage, the inventory pressure is not large, but the number of processed sugar has increased, and the current inventory reduction process has slowed down significantly. For the new crop, the expected output in the new sugar - crushing season is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. Overall, factors such as a large increase in imports, the upcoming crushing of northern sugar mills, and the high expected output in the new season will suppress the sugar price to oscillate downward. It is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - losses to control risks. Future factors to watch include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract price dropped with a 1.16% weekly decline. International raw sugar prices were low - level oscillating. Domestic imports soared, and future supply will increase, while demand will be promoted by pre - holiday stocking. It is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - losses. - **Future Focus**: Consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract rose by about 0.36% this week. As of August 19, 2025, non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 2.70% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions decreased by 1.34% month - on - month, and non - commercial net positions decreased by 2.60% month - on - month. The top 20 net positions of Zhengzhou sugar futures were - 17,161 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 13,916 [10][19]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.74 cents per pound, down 1.12% month - on - month. As of August 29, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,010 yuan per ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,830 yuan per ton. As of August 27, 2025, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,786 yuan per ton, up 0.29% month - on - month; the in - quota price was 4,552 yuan per ton, up 0.29% month - on - month. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) was 5,772 yuan per ton, up 0.30% month - on - month; the in - quota price was 4,542 yuan per ton, up 0.29% month - on - month. As of August 18, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,278 yuan per ton, down 2.22% month - on - month; the out - of - quota profit was 44 yuan per ton, down 42.86% month - on - month. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,288 yuan per ton, down 2.20% month - on - month; the out - of - quota profit was 58 yuan per ton [13][23][26][31]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025, with a national sugar production of 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of July 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 1.6123 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 99,500 tons. In July, China's sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons (76.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 76.4%. From January to July, the sugar import volume was 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [35][37][42]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%, and the sales rate was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45%. As of July 31, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 410,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.66%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.79663 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51% [46][51]. ，3.4 Option and Stock - Futures Correlation Market - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of sugar this week was provided, but specific data was not detailed in the summary part [52]. - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry was provided, but specific data was not detailed in the summary part [57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rebounded with a weekly increase of about 1.63%. Internationally, the production prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia are good, leading to a loose global supply expectation. However, the market is worried about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season, and demand shows signs of improvement, causing the raw sugar price to fluctuate widely at a short - term low. Domestically, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, releasing import pressure. Beet sugar will start to be squeezed in September, increasing supply temporarily. On the demand side, due to the hot summer, the demand for cold drinks is in the peak season, and the double - festival stocking is expected to boost demand. The inventory pressure is not large due to the good production and sales progress in the early stage, but the increase in the number of processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process. The new sugar - pressing season's output is expected to remain at the highest level in the past four years. Overall, the low - level fluctuation of the outer market affects the domestic market to fluctuate repeatedly. Fundamentally, the import is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the customs import data in July. The supply in the new sugar - pressing season is expected to be stable with a slight increase. Although short - term double - festival stocking provides support, it will still face pressure in the future. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or wait for a rebound to sell short. Future factors to watch include consumption and the exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Trend**: Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract price rebounded with a weekly increase of about 1.63%. The international raw sugar price fluctuated widely at a low level, and the domestic market was affected by it. The import pressure was released, and the supply would increase temporarily in September. The demand was expected to increase, and the de - stocking process slowed down [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see or wait for a rebound to sell short [8]. - **Future Focus**: Consumption situation, exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract fell with a weekly decline of about 1.05%. As of August 5, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 1.90% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position increased by 4.22% month - on - month, and the non - commercial net position decreased by 23.85% month - on - month. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou Sugar futures was - 29,055 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts was 17,104 [10][20]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.36 cents per pound, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12%. As of August 15, the price of Guangxi Liuzhou sugar was 6,030 yuan per ton, and the spot price of Yunnan Kunming sugar was 5,860 yuan per ton. As of August 13, 2025, the out - of - quota import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar was 5,786 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%; the in - quota price was 4,552 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%. The out - of - quota import processing estimated price of Thai sugar was 5,901 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%; the in - quota price was 4,640 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. As of August 13, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,324 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.84%; the out - of - quota profit was 90 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 164.71%. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,236 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.22%; the out - quota profit was - 25 yuan per ton [13][26][27]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - pressing season had ended, with a national sugar production of 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons and a growth rate of 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3221 million tons. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to June was only 1.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.7% [36][40][44]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%; the cumulative sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%; the sales rate was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45%. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.61%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.24% [48][53]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Markets - **Option Market**: The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of white sugar this week is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [54]. - **Stock Market**: The price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [58].

Group 1 - The international raw sugar futures are fluctuating between 15.5 - 17 cents per pound, pressured by Brazil's high sugar-to-ethanol ratio, leading to weak prices [1] - Brazil's 25/26 sugar season is expected to have low yield and sugar content, and if the sugar-to-ethanol ratio declines, production may fall short of expectations, potentially supporting international sugar prices [1] - Long-term outlook suggests that if Brazil, India, and Thailand increase production, the raw sugar supply and demand will become more relaxed [1] Group 2 - Domestic sugar market lacks fundamental trading topics, with focus shifting to imported sugar; July sugar imports may increase, putting pressure on futures [1] - It is anticipated that by the end of the third quarter, domestic sugar supply pressure will increase, leading to potential backwardation in distant contracts, with a recommendation to short on rallies [1] Group 3 - Cotton prices initially rose and then fell in July, with the rise attributed to macro sentiment and subsequent profit-taking by funds [1] - As of the end of July, national cotton commercial inventory is depleting quickly, and low inventory from old crops supports cotton prices, while strong expectations for new crop yields are present [1] - Demand side shows some improvement, with the macro context of delayed US-China tariffs suggesting short-term cotton prices may remain volatile but biased towards strength [1] Group 4 - In the medium term, continuous negative feedback from downstream enterprises and increasing pressure from new crop listings may lead to a shift in market logic, potentially resulting in price declines [1] - Overall, cotton prices are expected to be strong initially and then weaken, with a recommendation for high short positions [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Last week, Zhengzhou sugar prices dropped significantly, erasing the gains of the past month. Due to increased imports, the domestic sugar sales volume in July is expected to decline compared to last year, and the profit from out-of-quota imports still exists but faces shrinkage risks. Without further support for price increases, sugar prices dropped sharply. Overseas, influenced by the expected increase in production in India and Thailand and the increase in Brazil's production in early July, raw sugar prices also trended downward. In the short term, the price decline of SR2509 shows no sign of stopping and may further approach the previous low [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information Domestic Market - The spot price in Nanning is 6050 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, it is 5840 - 5960 yuan/ton. In May, China imported 6.42 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 15.07 tons. In June 2025, China imported 42 tons of sugar, a significant year-on-year increase [3]. International Market - Brazil exported 2.3447 million tons of sugar in the first three weeks of July, with a daily average export of 167,500 tons, a 2% increase compared to June last year. India plans to allow sugar exports in the new crushing season starting in October as the sugarcane crop is expected to have a good harvest. Unica data shows that in early July, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 49.823 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year increase of 14.77%, produced 3.406 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 14.07%, and the sugar - making ratio was 53.68%, compared to 50.11% last year. ISMA predicts that India's sugar production in the 25/26 season will recover to 34.9 million tons due to the increase in planting areas in Maharashtra and Karnataka [9]. Sugar Futures and Spot Prices and Spreads Sugar Futures Weekly Price and Spread - As of August 4, 2025, the closing prices and spreads of various sugar futures contracts are as follows: SR01 is 5620 yuan/ton with 0% change; SR03 is 5595 yuan/ton with 0% change; SR05 is 5570 yuan/ton with 0% change; SR07 is 5571 yuan/ton with 0% change; SR09 is 5733 yuan/ton with 0% change; SR11 is 5653 yuan/ton with 0% change; SB is 16.2 with 0% change; W is 465 with 0% change. The spreads between different contracts are also provided [5]. Sugar Spot Weekly Price and Spread - As of August 1, 2025, the spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, Zhanjiang, Rizhao, and Urumqi and their spreads are presented. For example, the price in Nanning is 5990 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price in Liuzhou is 5980 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price in Kunming is 5810 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [6]. Sugar Weekly Basis - As of August 1, 2025, the basis and its changes between Nanning and Kunming and various sugar futures contracts are given. For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 is 410, up 66; the basis of Kunming - SR01 is 260, up 46 [7][10]. Sugar Weekly Import Price Change - As of July 31, 2025, the in - quota and out - of - quota import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and their weekly changes are provided, along with the price differences between domestic locations and imported sugar [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 0.4%. Domestically, the price trend is different from that abroad. The opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports will release import pressure and suppress sugar prices. However, the summer consumption peak and the restocking demand of the food and beverage industry provide some support. Internationally, the good supply prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia and the year - on - year increase in Brazil's exports suppress the raw sugar price, but Pakistan's plan to import 500,000 tons and the decrease in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in late June provide short - term support. Overall, the domestic sugar price fluctuates with the raw sugar price, but the domestic demand recovery makes it stronger than the foreign market. In the later stage, both supply and demand are strong, and price fluctuations will intensify. [5] - It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract. Future factors to focus on include consumption and the exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract price decreased by about 0.4% this week. Internationally, the supply is expected to be loose, but there is short - term support. Domestically, the import pressure will be released, but the demand provides support. The domestic sugar price fluctuates with the raw sugar price and is stronger than the foreign market. Later, both supply and demand will be strong, and price fluctuations will intensify. [5] - It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract. Future factors to focus on are consumption and the exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. [5] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market** - The price of the US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 0.67% this week. As of July 9, 2025, the non - commercial net position of ICE raw sugar remained unchanged from the previous period, and the futures settlement price of NYBOT No. 11 sugar increased by 2.67% month - on - month. [8] - The international raw sugar spot price increased. As of July 4, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.72 cents per pound, a month - on - month increase of 4.57%. [11] - This week, the top 20 net positions in the white sugar futures were - 19,355 lots, and the Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts were 22,744. [17] - **Spot Market** - As of July 11, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,120 yuan per ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,895 yuan per ton. [21] - As of July 8, 2025, the estimated in - quota import price index of Brazilian sugar was 4,457 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67%; the estimated out - of - quota import price index of Brazilian sugar was 5,662 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The estimated out - of - quota import processing price of Thai sugar (50% tariff) was 5,715 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%; the estimated in - quota import processing price of Thai sugar was 4,498 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%. [23] - As of last week, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,476 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.93%; the out - of - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 271 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.81%. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,435 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%; the out - of - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 218 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 20.44%. [28] 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side** - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03%. [32] - As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons. [36] - In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase of 220,000 tons from April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. However, from January to May 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were only 630,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 50.1%. [40] - **Demand Side** - The cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons, or 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. [44] - From January to May 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar was 9.066 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. The cumulative output of soft drinks was 74.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.19%. [49] 3.4. Option and Stock Market - **Option Market** - The implied volatility of at - the - money options for white sugar this week is presented in the chart of the implied volatility of the underlying of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, but specific data is not given in the text. [50] - **Stock Market** - The chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but specific data is not given in the text. [55]

Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Industry Weekly Report - Date: June 29, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Market Information Domestic Market - Spot Quotes: Nanning intermediary platform offers 6,110 yuan/ton, Kunming intermediary offers 5,830 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] - In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 330,000 tons; imported 64,200 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 150,700 tons [3] International Market - Last week, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded after hitting a new low. The main factor was the oil price increase caused by the Israel-Iran conflict, which drove up the agricultural product sector. However, the rebound of the external market was not strong due to the decoupling of Brazilian gasoline prices from crude oil prices. With relatively low imports in China, the price of domestic sugar is supported [4] Price and Spread Data Futures - Futures closing prices and spreads on June 30, 2025: SR01 at 5,600 yuan/ton with 0% change, SR03 at 5,573 yuan/ton with 0% change, etc. [5] Spot - Spot prices and spreads on June 27, 2025: Nanning at 6,030 yuan/ton with a 50-yuan increase, etc. [6] Basis - Basis and its changes on June 27, 2025: Nanning - SR01 basis at 490 yuan with a 33-yuan increase, etc. [7][10] Import Prices - Import prices and their changes from June 20, 2025: Brazilian import quota price at 4,450 yuan/ton with a 26-yuan decrease, etc. [11] Industry News - In the first three weeks of June, Brazil exported 2.103 million tons of sugar, with an average daily export of 152,000 tons, a 6% decrease compared to June last year [9] - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India estimates that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 35 million tons [9] - According to Unica data, in late May, the central-southern region of Brazil crushed 47.85 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year increase of 5.47%, produced 2.95 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 8.86%, and the sugar production ratio was 51.85%, compared to 48.2% in the same period last year [9] - Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [9]