Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market shows a complex situation with supply increasing, demand remaining sluggish, and cost support weakening. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 7465 - 7645 [6]. - The polysilicon market has continuous supply increase and declining demand, with overall demand in a state of continuous recession. The 2508 contract is expected to oscillate between 30195 - 31055 [8]. - The main logic for the market is the supply - demand mismatch caused by capacity imbalance, making the downward trend difficult to change. The main influencing factors include cost increases, slow post - holiday demand recovery, and the supply - demand situation of downstream polysilicon [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply was 81,000 tons, a 2.53% week - on - week increase [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 71,000 tons, a 13.41% week - on - week decrease. Downstream industries such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy all have high inventory levels [6]. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - blown 553 is 3972 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Basis**: On June 25, the spot price of non - oxygen - blown silicon in East China was 8100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 545 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 2.27% week - on - week, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 4.32%, and main port inventory decreased by 1.50% [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the 09 contract is upward, and the futures price is above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling is increasing, demand recovery is emerging, and cost support is rising. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 7465 - 7645 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the output was 24,500 tons, a 2.94% week - on - week increase. The scheduled output for June is expected to be 98,800 tons, a 2.80% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.9 GW, a 1.52% week - on - week decrease. The inventory decreased by 3.10%. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components shows a downward trend in different degrees [8]. - **Cost**: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 34,520 yuan/ton, and the production income is - 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On June 25, the price of N - type polysilicon was 34,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 08 contract was 3875 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 262,000 tons, a 4.72% week - on - week decrease, remaining at a high level in the same period of history [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the 08 contract is downward, and the futures price is below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling continues to increase, demand in various downstream sectors continues to decline, and cost support remains stable. The 2508 contract is expected to oscillate between 30195 - 31055 [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon Market Data**: The report provides detailed data on the prices, basis, inventory, production, and cost of different contracts of industrial silicon, as well as the production, inventory, and profit data of downstream industries such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [15]. - **Polysilicon Market Data**: It includes data on the prices, basis, inventory, production, and cost of polysilicon, as well as the production, inventory, and profit data of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market supply is expected to remain stable, with the cross - month spread narrowing to the lowest level since January. The expected increase in high - sulfur fuel oil demand during the Middle - East summer peak has not had a substantial impact on supply. The market is currently neutral [3]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish signal. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased in the week of June 18, also a bullish factor. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is trending upward, which is bullish. However, the main positions in both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are short, and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish [3]. - With the significant decline in crude oil prices and the upcoming negotiation between Iran and Israel, the fuel oil market is under pressure. It is expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term. The FU2509 is expected to trade between 2980 - 3030, and the LU2508 between 3680 - 3740 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Asian high - sulfur fuel oil supply is stable, demand is moderate, and the cross - month spread is narrowing. The expected demand increase in the Middle - East has not changed the supply situation [3]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is 158 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is 78 yuan/ton, with spot premiums over futures [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of June 18 was 2289.9 million barrels, a decrease of 22 million barrels [3][8]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is trending upward [3]. - **Main Positions**: High - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are short, and short positions are increasing [3]. - **Expectation**: Crude oil prices are falling, and the negotiation between Iran and Israel restricts the upside of fuel oil. Short - term low - level range - bound trading is expected [3]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Deterioration of the Middle - East situation and the expected increase in summer power - generation demand [4]. - **Bearish Factors**: The optimistic demand outlook needs to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxed sanctions on Russia [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The previous FU main - contract futures price was 3206, and the current price is 3020, a decrease of 186 (5.80%). The previous LU main - contract futures price was 3825, and the current price is 3686, a decrease of 139 (3.63%) [5]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is 158 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur is 78 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory data from April 9 to June 18 shows fluctuations, with a decrease of 22 million barrels in the week of June 18 [8]. 3.4 Spread Data The report presents a graph of the high - low sulfur futures spread from 2021 - 09 - 07 to 2025 - 06 - 07, but no specific numerical analysis of the spread is provided [13]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from April 9 to June 18 shows that the inventory on June 18 was 2289.9 million barrels, a decrease of 22 million barrels compared to the previous week [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by the tight supply of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel, and the closure of the arbitrage window from the West to Singapore will limit cargo arrivals in the first half of July. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by the seasonal demand peak of utilities in the Middle East during summer. However, sufficient supplier inventories and weak downstream bunker demand may suppress the market fundamentals in the short term. The fuel oil is expected to run strongly. FU2509 will run strongly in the range of 3250 - 3350, and LU2508 will run strongly in the range of 3800 - 3900 [3] - The market is driven by the resonance of supply - side production cuts to be observed and neutral demand. There are potential risks such as the breakdown of OPEC+ internal unity and the escalation of war risks [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil has a price of 474.18 dollars/ton with a basis of 219 yuan/ton; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil has a price of 543.5 dollars/ton with a basis of 120 yuan/ton, showing a spot premium over futures. The price is above the 20 - day line which is upward - sloping. High - sulfur主力 holds more long positions with a decrease in long positions, while low - sulfur主力 holds short positions with a decrease in short positions [3] - The overnight Middle East geopolitical risk first decreased and then increased. The possible US intervention in the Israel - Iran conflict raises market risk concerns [3] 3.2 Long - Short Focus - **Likely to be Bullish**: OPEC+ extends additional production cuts (implementation to be tracked), and China releases import quotas [4] - **Likely to be Bearish**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The previous price of the FU主力 contract was 3169, and the current price is 3246, with a rise of 77 (2.43%); the previous price of the LU主力 contract was 3825, and the current price is 3854, with a rise of 29 (0.76%). The previous FU basis was 80, and the current one is 219, with a rise of 139 (173.50%); the previous LU basis was - 16, and the current one is 120, with a rise of 136 (- 827.08%) [5] - **Spot Market**: The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils remained unchanged. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil rose from 445.99 to 474.18 dollars/ton (6.32%), the price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil rose from 519.50 to 543.50 dollars/ton (4.62%), the price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil rose from 426.41 to 454.08 dollars/ton (6.49%), and the price of Singapore diesel rose from 613.79 to 640.83 dollars/ton (4.41%) [6] 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on the week of June 11 was 23.119 million barrels, an increase of 1.71 million barrels [3][8] 3.5 Spread Data - The report shows the historical data of the spread between high - and low - sulfur futures from 2021 - 09 - 07 to 2025 - 06 - 07 [13]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The overall view of Shanghai nickel is that it will oscillate. In the short - term, the spot trading is poor, the downstream purchases on a need - basis, the ore price may be under pressure, and the stainless steel has a certain negative impact on the nickel price. Although the new energy vehicle data is good, the medium - and long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The basis is positive, but the inventory and the position situation are negative [2]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless steel is also expected to oscillate. The spot price is flat, the nickel ore price is falling, and the nickel iron price shows signs of stopping the decline. The basis is positive, but the inventory situation is negative [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **沪镍**: On May 16, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 124,060, up 460 from the previous day. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was 124,000, down 1,050 [11]. - **不锈钢**: The average price of stainless steel was 13,887.5, and the price remained unchanged compared with the previous day [4]. 3.2 Nickel and Stainless Steel Inventory - **沪镍**: As of May 16, the LME nickel inventory was 195,222, a decrease of 3,924; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 23,501, an increase of 157 [2][14]. - **不锈钢**: On May 16, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.1083 million tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous period. The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 157,878, a decrease of 837 [4][18][19]. 3.3 Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Price - On May 16, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58.5 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 31 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day [22]. 3.4 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 13,256, the scrap steel production cost was 13,825, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 17,005 [24]. 3.5 Nickel Import Cost - The converted import price of nickel was 127,134 yuan per ton [27].