Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating provided in the content Core View of the Report - The supply glut continues to suppress the fundamentals of the low - sulfur fuel oil market, and traders expect a surge in Western arbitrage cargoes to boost inventories in the Singapore region. For high - sulfur fuel oil, although the spot supply is sufficient and the seasonal public demand weakens, the downstream high - sulfur fuel oil premium in Singapore is supported by stable demand and moderate shipping schedules. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than the low - sulfur, but overall, it will mainly operate in a volatile manner. FU2509 will operate in the range of 2760 - 2800, and LU2510 will operate in the range of 3470 - 3510 [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are suppressed by supply glut; high - sulfur fuel oil downstream premium in Singapore is supported. The base - value shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 470,000 barrels to 20.749 million barrels in the week of August 6. The price is below the 20 - day line. The high - sulfur main position is short and the short position decreases, while the low - sulfur main position is long and the long position increases. The continuation of the Sino - US trade exemption provides some support to the market [3] 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Sanctions against Russia may be intensified [4] - **Likely to Fall**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak. The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4] 3. Fundamental Data - **Fundamentals**: Supply glut suppresses low - sulfur fuel oil; high - sulfur fuel oil downstream premium in Singapore is supported by demand and shipping schedules [3] - **Base - value**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 402.27 US dollars/ton with a base - value of 218 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil is 489.5 US dollars/ton with a base - value of 142 yuan/ton, and the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 6 was 20.749 million barrels, an increase of 470,000 barrels [3][8] - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3] - **Main Position**: High - sulfur main position is short and the short position decreases; low - sulfur main position is long and the long position increases [3] - **Expectation**: The continuation of the Sino - US trade exemption provides support. High - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than low - sulfur, and it will operate in a volatile manner. FU2509 will operate in the range of 2760 - 2800, and LU2510 will operate in the range of 3470 - 3510 [3] 4. Spread Data No specific spread data analysis provided other than the mention of high - low sulfur futures spread graph 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from May 28 to August 6 shows fluctuations, with an increase of 470,000 barrels to 20.749 million barrels in the week of August 6 [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the analysis of fuel oil shows a mixed view with some factors being positive and others negative [3][4] Report's Core View - The fuel oil market has a complex situation. On one hand, the market sentiment has improved, but sufficient inventory may suppress future market fundamentals. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has slightly declined, and the supply in Singapore is expected to limit the upside potential. On the other hand, the reduction in Singapore's fuel oil inventory and the spot premium over futures are positive factors. The market was previously weak due to trade negotiation uncertainties, but with the US - EU trade agreement and the possible extension of the China - US tariff exemption period, the fuel oil may stabilize in the short term. The FU2509 is expected to operate in the 2820 - 2880 range, and LU2510 in the 3530 - 3580 range [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily提示 - The fuel oil market is affected by multiple factors. The supply is sufficient, but the inventory has decreased. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main positions of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are short positions with a reduction in short positions. The market may stabilize in the short term due to trade - related news, and the prices of FU2509 and LU2510 are expected to operate within specific ranges [3] 2. 多空关注 - **Likely to rise**: There is an expected increase in summer power generation demand [4] - **Likely to fall**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4] 3. 基本面数据 - **Fundamentals**: Saudi Aramco's competitive selling in the spot market and sufficient inventory may suppress future market fundamentals. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has slightly declined, and the supply in Singapore is expected to limit the upside potential [3] - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 42 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 83 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3] - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory on July 23 was 19.909 billion barrels, a decrease of 450,000 barrels [3] - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3] - **Main positions**: Both high - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are short positions, and the short positions are decreasing [3] 4. 价差数据 - The report does not provide a detailed analysis of spread data, only showing a graph of high - low sulfur futures spreads [13] 5. 库存数据 - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has shown fluctuations. On July 23, it was 19.909 billion barrels, a decrease of 450,000 barrels compared to the previous period [3][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable, with spot premiums rising slightly due to active physical buying. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is still suppressed by sufficient supply in the short term, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively weaker, causing the Hi - 5 spread to widen. The market is neutral. The fuel oil market has mixed signals, with some factors like inventory reduction being positive and others like price below the 20 - day line and short - dominated positions being negative. The expected price ranges are 2860 - 2900 for FU2509 and 3540 - 3600 for LU2510 [3]. - The summer power generation demand is expected to increase, but the optimism on the demand side needs verification, and there is a possibility of relaxed sanctions on Russia. The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable, with spot premiums rising slightly. The low - sulfur market is suppressed by supply, and the high - sulfur market is weaker. The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil price is 403.81 dollars/ton with a basis of 58 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur is 504.5 dollars/ton with a basis of 123 yuan/ton. The Singapore fuel oil inventory on July 16 was 2035.9 million barrels, a decrease of 45 million barrels. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the high - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are short. The expected price ranges are 2860 - 2900 for FU2509 and 3540 - 3600 for LU2510 [3]. - The previous day's FU and LU futures prices were 2921 and 3610 respectively, and the current prices are 2899 and 3575, with decreases of 22 and 35 respectively, and decline rates of - 0.75% and - 0.97%. The previous day's FU and LU basis were 60 and 136 respectively, and the current ones are 58 and 123, with decreases of 2 and 13 respectively, and decline rates of - 3.17% and - 9.52% [5]. - The previous day's spot prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur, Zhoushan low - sulfur, Singapore high - sulfur, Singapore low - sulfur, Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oils and Singapore diesel were 505.00, 510.00, 403.49, 508.50, 383.61 and 680.78 respectively. The current prices are 505.00, 510.00, 403.81, 504.50, 384.01 and 666.35 respectively. The changes are 0.00, 0.00, 0.32, - 4.00, 0.40 and - 14.43 respectively, and the change rates are 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.08%, - 0.79%, 0.10% and - 2.12% [6]. 2. Multi - Short Focus - Bullish factors include the expected increase in summer power generation demand. Bearish factors are that the optimism on the demand side needs verification and there is a possibility of relaxed sanctions on Russia. The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable, with spot premiums rising slightly. The low - sulfur market is suppressed by supply, and the high - sulfur market is relatively weaker, causing the Hi - 5 spread to widen. The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil price is 403.81 dollars/ton with a basis of 58 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur is 504.5 dollars/ton with a basis of 123 yuan/ton. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the high - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are short. The expected price ranges are 2860 - 2900 for FU2509 and 3540 - 3600 for LU2510 [3]. 5. Spread Data - Not provided in the given content Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on May 7 was 2412.9 million barrels, an increase of 40 million barrels; on May 14, it was 2490.9 million barrels, an increase of 78 million barrels; on May 21, it was 2563.9 million barrels, an increase of 73 million barrels; on May 28, it was 2201.9 million barrels, a decrease of 362 million barrels; on June 4, it was 2140.9 million barrels, a decrease of 61 million barrels; on June 11, it was 2311.9 million barrels, an increase of 171 million barrels; on June 18, it was 2289.9 million barrels, a decrease of 22 million barrels; on June 25, it was 2274.9 million barrels, a decrease of 15 million barrels; on July 2, it was 2132.9 million barrels, a decrease of 142 million barrels; on July 9, it was 2080.9 million barrels, a decrease of 52 million barrels; on July 16, it was 2035.9 million barrels, a decrease of 45 million barrels [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - With the easing of the Middle East situation, the premium of crude oil has rapidly declined, and the energy sector has dropped significantly. The crude oil and fuel oil markets may re - enter the fundamental - driven stage [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: The monthly spread structure has weakened, reflecting sufficient supply in the spot market. Although there is support from the power generation demand in summer, the cracking spread needs to be further adjusted to attract incremental demand from refineries [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and downstream demand provides short - term support. However, in the medium - term, the market share will be gradually replaced, and domestic production is expected to increase [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures prices**: The night - session closing price of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures dropped 0.3% to 3011 yuan/ton, and that of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 0.49% to 3709 yuan/ton [1]. - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: The monthly spread structure has weakened recently, and the weak profit of downstream refineries restricts procurement demand. With the approaching of summer, the power generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt is increasing. In June, China's high - sulfur fuel oil arrivals may increase, and the consumption tax deduction ratio may be adjusted upwards, which may drive the refinery demand to recover from a low level [1]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and the domestic production in May was at a low level. Singapore's marine fuel sales in May increased significantly. But in the medium - term, the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will replace its market share, and domestic production is expected to rise after the end of the refinery maintenance season [2]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Other strategies (cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, options): None [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by the tight supply of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel, and the closure of the arbitrage window from the West to Singapore will limit cargo arrivals in the first half of July. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by the seasonal demand peak of utilities in the Middle East during summer. However, sufficient supplier inventories and weak downstream bunker demand may suppress the market fundamentals in the short term. The fuel oil is expected to run strongly. FU2509 will run strongly in the range of 3250 - 3350, and LU2508 will run strongly in the range of 3800 - 3900 [3] - The market is driven by the resonance of supply - side production cuts to be observed and neutral demand. There are potential risks such as the breakdown of OPEC+ internal unity and the escalation of war risks [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil has a price of 474.18 dollars/ton with a basis of 219 yuan/ton; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil has a price of 543.5 dollars/ton with a basis of 120 yuan/ton, showing a spot premium over futures. The price is above the 20 - day line which is upward - sloping. High - sulfur主力 holds more long positions with a decrease in long positions, while low - sulfur主力 holds short positions with a decrease in short positions [3] - The overnight Middle East geopolitical risk first decreased and then increased. The possible US intervention in the Israel - Iran conflict raises market risk concerns [3] 3.2 Long - Short Focus - **Likely to be Bullish**: OPEC+ extends additional production cuts (implementation to be tracked), and China releases import quotas [4] - **Likely to be Bearish**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The previous price of the FU主力 contract was 3169, and the current price is 3246, with a rise of 77 (2.43%); the previous price of the LU主力 contract was 3825, and the current price is 3854, with a rise of 29 (0.76%). The previous FU basis was 80, and the current one is 219, with a rise of 139 (173.50%); the previous LU basis was - 16, and the current one is 120, with a rise of 136 (- 827.08%) [5] - **Spot Market**: The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils remained unchanged. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil rose from 445.99 to 474.18 dollars/ton (6.32%), the price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil rose from 519.50 to 543.50 dollars/ton (4.62%), the price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil rose from 426.41 to 454.08 dollars/ton (6.49%), and the price of Singapore diesel rose from 613.79 to 640.83 dollars/ton (4.41%) [6] 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on the week of June 11 was 23.119 million barrels, an increase of 1.71 million barrels [3][8] 3.5 Spread Data - The report shows the historical data of the spread between high - and low - sulfur futures from 2021 - 09 - 07 to 2025 - 06 - 07 [13]