Core Insights - The preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve has decreased, indicating a potential easing of inflation pressures [1] - However, the market has not yet reflected these inflation expectations in prices, suggesting a disconnect between economic indicators and market sentiment [1] - Hard data remains resilient, indicating that underlying economic conditions may still support growth despite inflation concerns [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to ease monetary policy solely based on "soft data," as historical instances have shown that such data often incorrectly predicted impending recessions [1] Group 1 - Recent consumer and business surveys indicate a sense of economic anxiety, but fundamental data does not show signs of a severe economic slowdown [1] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the Federal Reserve is looking for evidence from the labor market and other hard data before considering interest rate cuts [1] - The investment bank, along with other Wall Street institutions, expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in the upcoming decision [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, Daly, emphasizes that hard data does not misinterpret or misunderstand the growth rate and inflation of the U.S. economy [1] Group 1 - Daly's statement suggests confidence in the reliability of hard economic data in assessing the U.S. economic situation [1] - The focus on hard data indicates a potential shift away from reliance on softer indicators, which may lead to more informed monetary policy decisions [1] - The assertion may influence market expectations regarding future Federal Reserve actions, particularly in relation to interest rates and inflation management [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly emphasizes that hard data should not be misinterpreted regarding robust growth and the labor market [1] Group 1 - Daly suggests that the current economic indicators reflect a stable growth trajectory, countering any misconceptions about economic weakness [1] - The labor market remains strong, with low unemployment rates supporting the overall economic outlook [1] - Daly's comments indicate confidence in the resilience of the economy despite potential external challenges [1]

25日，根据费城联储最新公布的数据，服务业部门当前活动指数从-13.1急剧下跌至-32.5，跌至2020年5月以来的最低水平。 通常，"软数据"主要是指基于调查、情绪和预期的经济指标，而"硬数据"是具有明确、客观的数值和统计基础的数据。分析认为，至 少在软数据方面，这些数据似乎表明，美国大选后的"蜜月期"已经结束，服务业增长前景黯淡。 未来预期指数四连跌，首次转为负值 费城联储报告显示，企业层面的未来活动扩散指数暴跌了34点至-19.8，这是该指数连续第四次下降，也是自2020年4月以来的首次负 值读数。 "软数据"继续恶化，美国费城联储服务业调查指数跌至疫情来最低 美国费城联储服务业调查数据降至疫情以来最低点，服务部门衰退警报拉响。 一般活动指数、新订单指数和销售/收入指数均保持在负值区间，其中前两项进一步下滑。不过，价格指数有所上升，表明整体价格 仍在上涨。 更令人担忧的是，未来活动预期指标的表现甚至更为糟糕。这与近期多项"软数据"恶化趋势一致，尽管"硬数据"仍相对稳健。 全职就业指数下降了10点至-7.5，这是自去年8月以来的首次负值。服务业就业前景正在恶化。 这种软数据与硬数据之间的分化值得投资者密切 ...