Core Viewpoint - The pressure on soft economic data in the U.S. has reached levels that historically prompted the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, which could benefit the stock market if the timing and scale of policy easing are sufficient to prevent a recession [2][4][7]. Group 1: Economic Data Analysis - Soft data has shown significant downward pressure, with over half of the soft data inputs now classified as "under pressure," while hard data remains stable [4][6][11]. - Historically, soft data pressure has led to Federal Reserve responses, with nearly every instance since the mid-1980s resulting in rate cuts or pauses in rate hikes [7][10]. - The interaction between soft and hard data can create a negative feedback loop, where prolonged weakness in soft data leads to declines in hard data, often culminating in a recession [4][11]. Group 2: Potential Economic Weakness - Two potential weak points in the economy are highlighted: the employment market, where layoffs are increasing, and the real estate sector, which is experiencing a decline in new home sales and building permits [13]. - The stock market's current optimism hinges on the assumption of a "non-recession" scenario, and any shift towards recession could lead to significant declines from current levels [13][16]. - The market anticipates a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 20% probability of a cut in July, although this is considered low given the stability of hard data [13].

Group 1 - The Bank of Canada is placing greater emphasis on soft data and intelligence from businesses [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada is placing greater emphasis on soft data indicators in its economic assessments [1] Group 1 - The Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, Rogers, highlighted the importance of soft data in understanding economic conditions [1] - Soft data includes surveys and sentiment indicators that can provide insights into consumer and business behavior [1] - The shift towards soft data reflects a broader trend in central banking to incorporate qualitative measures alongside traditional hard data [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for caution in weighing the importance of soft data when formulating monetary policy [1]

急剧波动的美国贸易政策正迫使一些投资者更多地依赖"软数据"来帮助他们做出决策，因为在快速变化 的环境中，具体的官方指标过时太快。 上月美国总统特朗普关税公告等政策的急剧转变意味着，包括失业率、新增就业、零售销售和通胀等指 标，即所谓的"硬指标"，在发布时已经有些过时。 这促使投资者越来越多地从情绪调查或传闻的"软数据"中寻找线索。这些数据可能更主观，但能更及时 反映情况。 Cresset Capital首席投资官Jack Ablin表示："缺乏实时可见信息意味着我们不得不依赖软数据告诉我们现 在的情况。"他说他正在准备一个几乎完全基于消费者信心、投资者前景和商业信心水平数据的客户演 示。 嘉信理财首席投资策略师Liz Ann Sonders预计，这次硬数据将证实情况正在恶化，但她指出会有很多杂 音需要过滤。她说："我们会看到很多古怪的数据，你需要用仔细梳理。" 一些市场参与者正在寻找传统调查之外的软数据。 杜克大学福库商学院金融学教授Campbell Harvey表示："在这样的不确定时期，每一个事件或数据点都 会对价格产生巨大影响并引发波动。因此，这就是为什么你需要超越常规去追求新的数据。" Harvey更 ...

SHMET 网讯：美联储最新利率决定将于北京时间周四凌晨2:00公布，鲍威尔的新闻发布会将于凌晨2:30开始。本次会议不会公布最新的经济预测摘要 （SEPs），更新的预测需等到6月会议。 在强于预期的4月就业报告发布后，市场普遍预计美联储将维持利率在4.25%-4.50%不变。货币市场目前认为，本次会议仅有2%的概率降息25个基点， 而全年累计降息预期为72个基点。 本次会议以及鲍威尔的新闻发布会上，焦点将继续集中美联储官员在对关税影响的评论，以及指引上。然而，美联储很可能重申其观望立场，以观察特 朗普的关税如何反映到"硬数据"中，并帮助美联储决定下一步行动。 继上周五美国就业报告强劲之后，高盛集团和巴克莱银行都将下一次降息预测从6月推迟到7月。值得注意的是，花旗虽维持年内125个基点的降息预 测，但首次降息时点从5月延至6月。 政策声明与鲍威尔表态 随后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔提供的主要信息很可能重复"FOMC已做好充分准备，在获得更清晰的信息之前不改变政策"的说法。 高盛经济学家在其FOMC前瞻报告中提出了2个关键点 "软数据"VS"硬数据"： 当前数据走势呈现出典型的事件驱动型放缓特征：调查类"软数据"迅 ...

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economic outlook is under scrutiny as consumer and business surveys signal anxiety, reflecting market concerns about economic development [1][3] - Despite the anxiety in market sentiment, fundamental economic data shows resilience, with GDP growth and industrial production indices maintaining certain levels without significant declines [3][4] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence indices have declined, leading to a pessimistic outlook on future income growth and employment prospects [3] - Consumers are becoming more cautious in their spending decisions due to price fluctuations and potential risks in the job market, impacting overall domestic demand [3] Business Sentiment - Business surveys indicate that many managers are worried about market demand uncertainty, leading to conservative investment decisions and some companies reducing expenditures [3] - The overall economic landscape is complicated by the contrast between negative market sentiment and stable fundamental data [3][4] Federal Reserve Policy - Goldman Sachs economists suggest that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to ease monetary policy based solely on "soft data" from consumer and business surveys [4] - Historical experiences show that soft data has often incorrectly predicted recessions, leading the Fed to be more cautious in its policy decisions [4] Labor Market Indicators - The Fed is looking for clear changes in labor market indicators, such as employment participation rates and wage growth, before considering any interest rate cuts [4] - The labor market is viewed as a critical indicator of economic health, influencing the Fed's assessment of recession risks and the need for monetary easing [4] Interest Rate Decision - Goldman Sachs aligns with the consensus that the Fed is likely to maintain interest rates in the upcoming decision, as fundamental data has not deteriorated to a level that necessitates immediate action [5] - The Fed's policy adjustments will consider multiple factors, including inflation levels and the global economic environment, to avoid unintended consequences [5]

美国消费者和企业调查显示出一种焦虑的经济情绪，但基础数据尚未显示经济严重放缓。 高盛经济学家写道，美联储不太可能仅根据"软数据"就放松政策，尤其是因为在最近的过去，软数据错误地预示 着衰退即将来临，比如美联储在2022年抗击通胀期间。 【高盛：美联储不太可能因为"软数据"疲弱就降息】 高盛经济学家写道，美联储不太可能仅根据"软数据"就放松政策，尤其是因为在最近的过去，软数据错误地预示 着衰退即将来临，比如美联储在2022年抗击通胀期间。 高盛的团队写道，美联储"在降息之前，也希望看到劳动力市场和其他硬数据的证据"。 这家投行和华尔街其他机构一样，相信美联储将在周三的利率决议中保持利率不变。 高盛的团队写道，美联储"在降息之前，也希望看到劳动力市场和其他硬数据的证据"。 < 【高盛：美联储不太可能因为"软数据"疲弱就降息】 美国消费者和企业调查显示出一种焦虑的经济情绪，但基础数据尚未显示经济严重放缓。 ...

金十数据5月5日讯，美国消费者和企业调查显示出一种焦虑的经济情绪，但基础数据尚未显示经济严重 放缓。高盛经济学家写道，美联储不太可能仅根据"软数据"就放松政策，尤其是因为在最近的过去，软 数据错误地预示着衰退即将来临，比如美联储在2022年抗击通胀期间。高盛的团队写道，美联储"在降 息之前，也希望看到劳动力市场和其他硬数据的证据"。这家投行和华尔街其他机构一样，相信美联储 将在周三的利率决议中保持利率不变。 高盛：美联储不太可能因为"软数据"疲弱就降息 ...