2025 年 09 月 28 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | | | | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 林昕宇 S0350522110005 | | | | linxy01@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 赵兰亭 S0350524080004 | | | | zhaolt@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 孙馨竹 S0350124060027 | | | | sunxz@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 锚定"品牌向上、稳健增长" ，医疗&消费 协同发展 ——稳健医疗（300888）公司动态研究 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 表现 | | 2025/09/26 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 稳健医疗 | | -9.2% | -4.4% | 43.7% | | 沪深 300 | | 2.2% | 15.3% | 28.3% | 2）医疗板块：老龄化显著推动医疗需求提升，提供医用耗材一 ...

半年报数据显示，中国太保（601601.SH；02601.HK）上半年归母净利润同比提升11.0%，营运利润提 升7.1%。 "经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变，中国保险业正处于高质量发展的战略机遇期。"中国太 保总裁赵永刚在8月29日下午的半年业绩发布会上表示。在回答第一财经记者提问时，他用了稳健增长 来形容今年上半年的公司经营业绩。 事实上，稳健也一直是中国太保给外界的印象。在业绩发布会上，管理层亦用了至少14次"稳健"这个 词。 那么如何在低利率环境等复杂市场挑战下实现稳健增长？中国太保管理层在业绩发布会上从盈利、投资 等多个方面做出解答。 预计全年营运利润稳健增长 与一季度归母净利润同比下降18.1%相比，上半年末，中国太保归母净利润转变为正增长11%，显然二 季度的利润增速明显提升。 半年报数据显示，中国太保总投资收益率（投资收益率指标均未年化，下同）为2.3%，综合投资收益 率为2.4%，同比分别下降0.4个百分点和0.6个百分点。 今年上半年，上市险企均收获了不错的半年成绩单，中国太保也不例外。 下，中国太保拓展了多元化的投资渠道，把握港股市场的投资机会，结合股息价值策略，对于净利润的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in 2025, following a return to growth in 2024 after reforms, with revenue growth projected at +9.5% for 2024 and +8.1% for Q1 2025 [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - The company operates in a resilient sector with essential demand for condiments, allowing for sustained growth [1] - There is potential for further penetration in lower-tier markets [1] - Core product categories such as soy sauce, oyster sauce, and seasoning sauces are expected to continue stable growth, with new products like cooking wine, vinegar, and compound seasonings also showing significant growth potential, projected at +16.8% for 2024 and +20.8% for Q1 2025 [1] Group 2: International Expansion - The company is advancing its overseas strategy steadily, which is expected to contribute to performance growth in the medium to long term [1] - The company is implementing a localized operational strategy to explore and seize growth opportunities in overseas markets [1] Group 3: Profitability - Cost advantages and improved supply chain efficiency are expected to lead to a continued increase in gross margin, with gross margins projected to rise by +2.3 and +2.7 percentage points for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [2] - The company has maintained good expense control, with net profit margins increasing by +0.7 and +1.5 percentage points for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [2] - Profit growth is anticipated to outpace revenue growth in 2025 [2] Group 4: Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 29.79 billion, 32.71 billion, and 35.76 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of +10.7%, +9.8%, and +9.3%, respectively [2] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 7.28 billion, 8.06 billion, and 8.87 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of +14.7%, +10.7%, and +10.1%, respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 23.58 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.52 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 57.5%, an increase of 5.7 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 770 million yuan, a decrease of 0.7% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenues and net profits of 9.15 billion yuan and 2.33 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 10.4% and 12.8% [1] - The contract liabilities at the end of Q1 2025 were 3.67 billion yuan, an increase of 159 million yuan compared to the end of Q4 2024 [1] Group 2: Revenue Growth Analysis - The company focused on inventory control in Q4, leading to a stable but reduced growth rate. The revenue growth for the year was driven by the Year Original Series, Gujing Gongjiu, and Huanghelou, with increases of 17.3%, 11.2%, and 15.1% respectively [2] - The second half of 2024 saw a significant slowdown in growth rates for the Year Original Series, while Gujing Gongjiu benefited from the volume increase of products priced below 100 yuan [2] - Regional performance showed varied results, with North China, Central China, South China, and international markets growing by 7.4%, 17.8%, 11.2%, and 2.9% respectively for the year [2] Group 3: Profitability and Cash Flow - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points due to a shift in product mix, while the net profit margin increased by 0.5 percentage points [3] - The contract liabilities at the end of Q4 2024 increased by 81.6% to 3.52 billion yuan, indicating strong accumulation of resources for future growth [3] - The cash flow from operations showed a slight decline of 1.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, but the contract liabilities increased by 4.5% compared to Q4 2024, aligning with revenue growth [3] Group 4: Strategic Focus - The company aims for stable growth in 2025 without setting specific growth targets, focusing on healthy operations and maintaining double-digit growth in Q1 2025 [4] - The product strategy includes enhancing the Gujing Gongjiu series and expanding the old porcelain and old glass products to drive additional revenue [4] - The company’s dividend payout ratio of 57.5% reflects its commitment to shareholder returns, enhancing its appeal to long-term investors [4] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The company is positioned for stable growth with a strong start in Q1 2025, and the valuation appears attractive with a projected EPS of 11.62 yuan for 2025, corresponding to a valuation of only 14 times [5] - The EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 11.62 and 12.98 yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 14.53 yuan, maintaining a target price of 300 yuan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The key factor for Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) to turn losses into profits in Q1 is the significant reduction in costs, despite a decline in pig prices and sales volume [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Muyuan Foods expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.3 billion to 4.8 billion yuan in Q1, representing a year-on-year increase of 280.75% to 301.77% [1]. - The average sales price of pigs in January and February was 14.76 yuan/kg, dropping to 14.3 yuan/kg in March, indicating a downward trend in pig prices [3]. - The company's breeding costs decreased significantly, with costs per kg dropping from 15.8 yuan in January-February to 12.5 yuan in March, contributing at least 2 yuan/kg to profit growth [4]. Group 2: Sales and Production - The sales volume of pigs in Q1 was 18.395 million heads, aligning with annual targets, while the sales of piglets surged by 595% to 414,900 heads compared to the previous year [5][6]. - The company has a target of 72 million to 78 million heads of market pigs and 8 million to 12 million piglets for 2025 [5]. Group 3: Strategic Direction - Muyuan Foods has shifted its strategy to "steady growth," with capital expenditures expected to decrease, indicating a focus on quality rather than rapid expansion [7]. - The company has established a wholly-owned subsidiary in Vietnam, indicating progress in its international expansion efforts [1][8]. - Investors are concerned about how the company will find new growth markets, as the current production capacity and pig prices will directly impact its upper limits [9].

美联储戴利：硬数据并非对稳健增长和劳动力市场的误读。 ...