随着毕业生逐步找到工作，失业率会逐步下降。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖15日在国新办发布会上表示，从失业率变化规律来看，每年进入7、8月份 毕业季，全国城镇调查失业率均会出现季节性上升。随着毕业生逐步找到工作，失业率会逐步下降。从 今年情况来看，8月份全国城镇调查失业率为5.3%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，主要是受学校应届毕业生 集中离校进入劳动力市场的影响。与上年相比，8月份全国城镇调查失业率与上年同期持平，表明就业 形势总体稳定。 从数据来看，劳动力主体人群失业率保持平稳。8月份，30-59岁劳动力城镇调查失业率为3.9%，与上 月和上年同期均持平，说明劳动力主体人群就业保持稳定。农民工失业率有所下降。8月份，外来农业 户籍劳动力城镇调查失业率为4.7%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，低于全国城镇调查失业率。 付凌晖表示，总的来看，面对外部环境复杂变化、国内就业总量和结构压力不减，各方面积极作为，稳 就业政策持续加力，就业形势保持总体稳定，非常不容易。下阶段，既要看到经济平稳运行、新质生产 力培育、稳就业政策显效等有利条件，也要看到部分行业和重点群体就业承压，就业难、招工难并存的 结构性矛盾仍然比较突出，要进 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the role of employment service stations in enhancing local employment opportunities through innovative public service models and digital technology integration [1][2][3] - Employment service stations are recognized as important "people's livelihood projects" in various regions, facilitating job matching and providing comprehensive services such as career assessment and policy guidance [1][2] - In Shenzhen, 31 companies offered 1,444 job positions during a recent live-streaming recruitment event, showcasing the effectiveness of standardized employment service stations [1] Group 2 - Employment service stations utilize a "precise, intelligent, and sustainable" service model to efficiently match job seekers with available positions, leveraging an "Internet+" public employment service platform [2] - The stations collect job information through online and offline methods, ensuring timely delivery of job opportunities to job seekers [2] - Digital empowerment through AI and big data technologies enhances the efficiency of job matching and provides valuable insights into job market trends [2] Group 3 - Employment service stations serve as "charging stations" for job seekers, offering career consulting, interview guidance, and practical skills training to improve employability [3] - High-quality development of employment service stations is crucial, requiring effective selection, branding, and promotion strategies to enhance their visibility and impact [3] - There is a need for a mechanism to evaluate and improve underperforming employment service stations, ensuring they contribute positively to local employment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of employment service stations in China is effectively addressing employment challenges by integrating various public service resources and utilizing digital technology to enhance job matching and support for job seekers [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Service Stations - Employment service stations are recognized as important "people's livelihood projects" and are being established in various regions to facilitate local employment opportunities [1]. - In Shenzhen, 80 standardized employment service stations have been built, hosting over 600 employment service events and providing job information for more than 300,000 positions this year [1]. - The stations offer comprehensive services including job assessments, one-on-one career assistance, and policy guidance to job seekers [1]. Group 2: Digital Empowerment - Employment service stations utilize a "precise, intelligent, and sustainable" service model to efficiently match job supply and demand [2]. - The integration of "Internet+" public employment service platforms allows for the collection and dissemination of job information, ensuring timely delivery of new job postings [2]. - Advanced technologies such as AI recruitment machines and big data analytics are employed to enhance job matching efficiency and provide real-time employment data [2]. Group 3: Skills Development - Employment service stations serve as "charging stations" for job seekers, offering career consulting, interview guidance, and practical training to improve job skills [3]. - There is a focus on developing training programs that align with local industry needs, facilitating a "training-order-sales" model to help individuals acquire specific skills [3]. - High-quality development of employment service stations is emphasized, with a need for effective evaluation and support mechanisms to ensure their success and sustainability [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of employment stability and expansion in China, highlighting government efforts to support job creation and improve employment quality during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1]. Group 1: Employment Stability Measures - China has maintained an annual urban employment increase of over 12 million since the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," providing a foundation for improving people's livelihoods [1]. - The government has implemented various policies to support employment, including increasing unemployment insurance refunds, deferring social security payments, and expanding the scope of social security subsidies [3][4]. - In the first half of this year, the reduction in unemployment insurance rates saved companies over 90 billion yuan in labor costs, with 62 billion yuan allocated to 815,000 enterprises for job stabilization [3]. Group 2: Targeted Support for Key Groups - The government is focusing on supporting employment for key groups, such as recent college graduates, by enhancing financial, tax, and job development policies [6]. - A recruitment program for 34,400 college graduates to serve in grassroots positions is underway, with completion expected by the end of August [6]. - Efforts are being made to stabilize the employment of migrant workers and those from poverty alleviation programs, with services tailored to facilitate local employment opportunities [6][7]. Group 3: Addressing Structural Employment Issues - To alleviate structural employment challenges, China is enhancing job training and aligning education with labor market needs, particularly in manufacturing and emerging industries [9]. - The government is promoting collaboration between educational institutions and enterprises to improve job placement rates through targeted training programs [9]. - A large-scale vocational skills enhancement initiative is set to run until the end of 2027, focusing on increasing the supply of skilled labor in manufacturing and service sectors [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, expecting it to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [2][50]. Core Insights - The social services sector saw a 1.99% increase in the last two trading weeks, ranking 11th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.08 percentage points [2][13]. - The upcoming policy measures aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing employment are anticipated to enhance market confidence and drive growth in the sector [5][43]. - The confirmed closure date for Hainan's free trade port is December 18, 2025, which is expected to facilitate international connections and attract quality resources [3][30]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's performance was highlighted, with sub-sectors such as tourism and retail showing significant gains, particularly tourism and scenic spots, which rose by 5.74% [17][21]. - The overall PE (TTM) for the social services industry is 33.92 times, indicating a historical percentile of 28.19%, compared to the CSI 300's PE of 12.38 times at a historical percentile of 49.90% [21][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth prospects in the travel chain and related industries, including Tongcheng Travel, Huangshan Tourism, and Lijiang Shares [5][43]. - It also highlights the recovery of business travel and the potential benefits for hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel, as well as opportunities in the cross-border travel market for companies like China Duty Free and Wangfujing [5][43]. Industry News - The report notes significant increases in travel-related searches on platforms like Meituan, with hotel searches up 48% and flight searches up 99% since July [31]. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported that domestic travel reached 3.15 trillion yuan in expenditure during the first half of 2025, a 15.2% increase year-on-year [32].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment and supporting job retention through government measures aimed at reducing costs for businesses and encouraging job creation [1][3][37] Group 2 - The government aims to stabilize employment by lowering labor costs for companies, which are the main drivers of job creation, especially in the private sector that contributes over 80% of urban employment [3][4] - Key measures include increasing unemployment insurance refunds for companies that do not lay off employees, with large enterprises receiving up to 50% and small and medium enterprises up to 90% of their contributions [5][4] - Expanding the scope of special loans for companies that commit to not laying off employees, allowing them to access preferential interest rates [6][4] - Allowing companies facing operational difficulties to apply for a temporary deferral of social insurance payments, effectively providing interest-free loans to cash-strapped small and medium enterprises [7][4] Group 3 - The government is incentivizing businesses to create new jobs by providing financial support, particularly for small and medium enterprises in key industries [9][10] - Expanding social insurance subsidies for small and medium enterprises that sign one-year labor contracts with key employment groups, covering 25% of individual contributions for one year [10][9] - Offering a one-time subsidy of up to 1500 yuan for companies that hire unemployed youth aged 16-24 and maintain social insurance contributions for three months [11][10] Group 4 - The article highlights the need to enhance workers' skills to address the issue of "skills frictional unemployment," where job seekers lack the necessary skills for available positions [13][12] - Government initiatives will include organizing skill training for key groups and encouraging vocational schools to enroll unemployed individuals, with relaxed age restrictions to benefit older job seekers [14][15] Group 5 - Employment assistance measures will be strengthened, including a mechanism to help disadvantaged graduates find quality job opportunities and ensuring timely unemployment insurance payments [17][16] - The article stresses the importance of maintaining low unemployment rates to ensure social stability and economic health, as high unemployment can lead to increased crime and social unrest [18][17]

Group 1 - The overall economic operation in the second quarter is stable, with a focus on employment policies leading to an active labor market and a decrease in the urban survey unemployment rate compared to the first quarter, remaining stable year-on-year [1][4] - The average urban survey unemployment rate in the second quarter is 5.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the first quarter and unchanged from the same period last year. Monthly rates show a decline in April and May, with June maintaining the rate at 5.0% [2] - The unemployment rate for the main labor market demographic (ages 30 to 59, excluding students) is 4.0%, which is 1.0 percentage point lower than the national urban average, showing a decrease from the first quarter and stability year-on-year [3] Group 2 - Employment for migrant workers remains stable, with an average unemployment rate of 4.8% in the second quarter, a slight decrease from the first quarter. The rate fluctuated in April and May but returned to 4.8% in June [3] - Despite the overall stability in employment, there are still pressures on specific groups such as youth and migrant workers, and certain industries face employment challenges. Continued efforts are needed to enhance domestic demand and address external uncertainties [4] - The government plans to utilize macro policy tools to support employment stability, including special loans, unemployment insurance, social security subsidies, and vocational training to assist key and vulnerable groups [4]

Employment Situation - The national urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% in the first half of the year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter, indicating overall stability in the employment situation [1] - In June, the urban survey unemployment rate was 5.0%, remaining stable both year-on-year and month-on-month, reflecting a steady employment landscape [1] - The unemployment rate for local registered labor was 5.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the same period last year, while the rate for migrant labor was 4.8%, unchanged from last year but down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] Policy Measures - The State Council issued a notification with 19 policy measures aimed at stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to promote high-quality economic development [1][3] - The notification includes social insurance subsidies for small and medium-sized enterprises that sign contracts with key groups, covering 25% of individual contributions for one year [3] - A proposal was made to provide insurance subsidies for youth aged 21-26, potentially benefiting 67 million people annually and a total of 340 million over five years [3] Job Market Trends - Traditional industries such as real estate, internet, and finance have seen a reduction in job openings, while new employment drivers are emerging in modern services and new industries [2] - The human-shaped robot industry experienced a 409% increase in job openings, with significant growth also noted in new materials, pet services, and smart hardware sectors [2] - Experts noted that despite fluctuations due to U.S. tariff policies, China's economy has shown resilience and continued stable growth [2] Youth Employment and Consumption - High-quality employment is expected to stimulate consumer spending, particularly among youth, who are significant contributors to consumption demand [4] - Social insurance subsidies can enhance disposable income for youth and improve their employment expectations, thereby boosting consumer confidence and reducing conservative savings [5]

Market Overview - The market showed strong performance this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, recording three consecutive weekly gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.78%, the ChiNext Index gained 2.36%, the STAR 50 Index rose by 0.98%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index increased by 0.41% [1][3][5]. Economic Indicators - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline to an increase, rising by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw an expanded decline. The core CPI reached a 14-month high of 0.7% [2][9][10]. - The CPI's increase was driven by a significant recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, with international commodity prices contributing to increases in gold and platinum jewelry prices by 39.2% and 15.9%, respectively [9][10]. - The PPI's year-on-year decline expanded by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, influenced by seasonal price decreases in raw materials and energy [9][10]. Policy Developments - The State Council issued 19 measures to stabilize employment, and the National Development and Reform Commission allocated an additional 10 billion yuan for employment support projects, which are expected to benefit 310,000 key groups [10][12]. - The government emphasized the need for industry self-discipline to prevent excessive competition, particularly in sectors like photovoltaic, steel, and cement [10][12]. International Trade and Monetary Policy - The U.S. has imposed tariffs on imports from multiple countries, with rates ranging from 25% to 50%, which may continue to pressure global trade growth expectations [12][13]. - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a divergence in opinions regarding interest rate policies, influenced by the potential impact of tariffs on inflation [12][13]. Sector Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as banking, public utilities, construction decoration, non-ferrous metals, and technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) for potential investment opportunities [14].

Core Viewpoint - The State Council issued a notification to enhance employment stability policies, proposing 19 measures across 7 areas to support enterprises and stabilize employment [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The notification emphasizes the need for local governments to track the implementation of existing policies and to introduce new measures in response to changing circumstances [1]. - It includes expanding the scope of special loans for job stabilization and increasing social insurance subsidies to support enterprises in maintaining employment positions [5][8]. - The notification also highlights the increase in unemployment insurance return policies, particularly for small and micro enterprises, with a return rate of up to 90% [8]. Group 2: Financial and Tax Policies - The notification integrates various financial and tax policies, including special loans for job stabilization, social insurance subsidies, and temporary deferrals of social insurance payments for struggling enterprises [7][10]. - It allows enterprises facing operational difficulties to apply for temporary deferrals of pension, unemployment, and work injury insurance contributions, expanding the previous focus on severely affected industries [10]. Group 3: Employment Assistance - The notification emphasizes the importance of optimizing employment services and strengthening support for job seekers, particularly for vulnerable groups such as the elderly, disabled, and long-term unemployed [12][14]. - It proposes measures to assist unemployed individuals in registering for services and accessing local employment support policies, including tax incentives for entrepreneurship [12]. - The notification aims to provide comprehensive support for difficult employment groups, ensuring they receive necessary assistance to find job opportunities [14].