很多人以为，年过完了就是"又要上班"，其实从春节后开始，好几股趋势会集中冒头，直接关系到你的 钱、工作和家庭。 有观点预测， 如果不出意外，过完年，社会上大概率会出现4个明显变化。 不是吓唬人，而是提醒大家早做盘算。 变化一：工资涨不上去 工资涨是涨了，但感觉永远不够花。从数据上看，工资确实在涨： 2025年，全国居民人均工资性收入24555元，比上年增长5.3%；工资性收入占人均可支配收入的 56.6%，是家庭收入的"大头"。 但为什么大家还是觉得"钱不够"？ 高科技、新能源、人工智能等行业，涨幅相对高； 传统制造业、服务业，涨薪空间有限，有的甚至还在裁员、降薪。 所以，春节过后，你要接受一个现实： 原因主要有三个： 1、涨得慢 调研显示，2024年中国市场薪酬实际增长率约4.3%，预计2025年约4.4%，属于"稳中有降"。 很多企业要么普调3%–5%，要么直接冻薪，真正"大幅涨薪"的只是少数行业和岗位。 3、涨不过生活成本 房贷、车贷、孩子教育、老人医疗、日常人情往来，样样都在涨。 工资一到账，先被这些"账单"分走大半，剩下的钱当然觉得少。 3、行业分化严重 指望靠"公司普调"让生活明显改善，越来越不现 ...

来源：天勇谈经济 周天勇 由于21世纪第三个十年交替时，受个别社会舆论的诱导，一些地方热衷于发展国有企业，挤出个体民营 企业，以及中小微企业金融压抑，"一刀切"拆违拆中小微企业，农民不能以土地为本发展二三产业等 等，致使创业和就业受到抑制和影响。从下面图表可以看出，2006到2025年间，城镇个体工商户、私营 企业、其他非国有公司就业比例，先是各自占比上升，而后下降，而非正式就业，也即灵活就业比例大 幅度上升。就业结构的变化，波及城镇户籍居民和城市常住人口的收入；而居民收入占GDP比例低，又 影响其消费支出；消费品市场需求不足又对生产和服务的供给传导收缩压力；这种螺旋式效应导致社会 的就业岗位不足，失业率提高和工资水平走低，进而又造成居民收入收缩。 | | 城镇总就 国有单位 | | 域镇集 | 股份合作联营有 | 私营企 个体工 | 港澳台 | 城镇灵 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年份 | 业人员 | 城镇就业 | 体单位 | 限责任股份有限 北就业 | 商户就 | 外商就 | 活就业 | | | (万人) | 比例 | 比例 ...

当地时间2月18日，欧洲股市迎来普涨行情。英国富时100指数盘中创出历史新高，法国CAC40指数、德国DAX指数、欧洲斯托克50指数集体逼近历史新 高。 大宗商品市场方面，国际贵金属价格、油价集体反弹，伦敦金现货价格收复4900美元/盎司关口。 欧洲股市高开高走 国际金价、油价集体反弹 当地时间2月18日，欧洲股市高开高走，多个股指盘中创出历史新高或逼近历史新高。 Wind数据显示，截至北京时间2月18日20:50，英国富时100指数涨逾1%，盘中创历史新高；法国CAC40指数、德国DAX指数、欧洲斯托克50指数分别上涨 0.4%、0.73%、0.87%，集体逼近历史新高；意大利MIB指数涨逾1%。 国际油价方面，NYMEX原油期货主力合约、ICE布油期货主力合约均涨逾2%，前者逼近每桶64美元关口，后者逼近每桶70美元关口。 | 伦敦金现 | | 伦敦银现 | COMEX真 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4931.611 | | 75.548 | 4943. | | +54.971 +1.13% +2.055 +2.80% +37.7 +0 | | | | | COMEX白银 ...

每年春节前后，朋友圈里总少不了一句话："明年会怎样，谁也说不准。" 但今年，还真有人敢拍胸脯说： "春节后，社会上会出现4个变化，跟每个人钱包、工作和感情都有关系。" 我仔细看了看最近的数据、政策和身边真实发生的事，发现这所谓的"高人预测"，其实一点都不玄，全 是咱们普通人正在经历的日常。 第一个变化：打工人的"饭碗"，变难端了，也变香了 每年春节一过，最扎心的一个问题就是： "今年活好不好找？钱好不好挣？" 从数据上看，全国就业形势整体是稳的： 2025年全国城镇新增就业1267万人，平均失业率5.2%左右，没出现大起大落。 像重庆，1到3月就要办上千场招聘会，专门服务返乡农民工、失业人员和灵活就业群体。 广东也计划组织2500场招聘会，开专列、包车接务工人员返岗。 现实很矛盾： 有人"有活没人干"，有人"有人没活干"。 但稳，不代表"好混"。 一边是高校毕业生人数再创新高，2026届预计超过1200万人，一个普通文员岗位，能收到几百份简历， 研究生、本科生一起抢。 另一边，企业却喊着"用工荒"：电工、焊工、工业机器人运维员、新能源车维修技工这些岗位，常年缺 人，月薪比普通白领高出一大截。 很多地方春节后立 ...

格隆汇2月11日｜Gammaroad Capital Partners首席投资官Jordan Rizzuto表示，潜在的就业形势似乎比预 期的要强劲，甚至可能比美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）近期评估和描述的情况更为乐观。如果这 些数据在后续月份的修订中得以保持，对货币政策的影响意味着我们距离中性利率比市场先前定价的更 近。 ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140,187.9 billion yuan, marking a 5% increase from the previous year, showcasing a stable and resilient economic growth trajectory [1][2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period saw China's economy achieve significant milestones, with GDP surpassing 110 trillion, 120 trillion, 130 trillion, and finally 140 trillion yuan [1] Economic Stability and Growth - The year 2025 is characterized by stability in economic metrics such as total GDP, employment, and foreign trade, with a notable increase in goods trade and foreign exchange reserves exceeding 3.3 trillion USD [2][3] - High-tech manufacturing's value added accounted for 17.1% of industrial output, and final consumption contributed over 50% to economic growth, indicating a shift towards a more optimized economic structure [2] Trade and Innovation - China's exports of high-tech products grew by 13.2% in 2025, with total goods imports and exports increasing by 3.8%, and exports alone rising by 6.1% [3] - Research and development expenditure reached 2.8% of GDP, surpassing the OECD average for the first time, and China's innovation index entered the global top ten [3] Social Welfare and Employment - The average disposable income per capita for residents was 43,377 yuan, reflecting a 5% real growth, with rural incomes growing even faster at 6% [5] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at an average of 5.2%, with the total number of migrant workers reaching 30.115 million, an increase of 0.5% from the previous year [4][5] Urbanization and Education - By the end of 2025, the urbanization rate in China reached 67.89%, with the average education level for the population aged 16-59 increasing to 11.3 years [6] Future Outlook - Despite external challenges, the foundation for China's economic growth remains strong, with expectations for continued stability and opportunities in 2026 [6][7]

Group 1: Agricultural Production - The total grain production in Sichuan for 2025 is projected to be 36.625 million tons, an increase of 287,000 tons or 0.8% compared to the previous year [1] - The grain planting area is expected to reach 9.6185 million acres, an increase of 97,000 acres or 0.1% year-on-year [1] - The grain yield is anticipated to be 380.8 kg per acre, an increase of 2.6 kg per acre or 0.7% from the previous year [1] - The total meat production (pork, beef, lamb, and poultry) is projected to be 6.669 million tons, an increase of 211,000 tons or 3.3% [1] - Pork production is expected to be 5.02 million tons, a growth of 4.7%, while beef production is projected at 390,000 tons, a growth of 5.1% [1] Group 2: Resident Income and Consumption - The per capita disposable income in Sichuan is projected to be 36,120 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.2% and a real increase of 5.5% after adjusting for price factors [2] - Urban residents' per capita disposable income is expected to be 49,428 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.4%, while rural residents' per capita disposable income is projected at 22,494 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.6% [2] - The per capita consumption expenditure in Sichuan is anticipated to be 26,073 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.8% and a real increase of 5.1% [2] - The consumer price index (CPI) in Sichuan is expected to decrease by 0.3% compared to the previous year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, is projected to rise by 0.5% [2] Group 3: Employment Situation - The average urban survey unemployment rate in Sichuan is projected to be 5.3%, remaining stable compared to the previous year [3] - The unemployment rate is expected to fluctuate throughout the year, with a peak of 5.4% in the first and third quarters and a low of 5.1% in the second quarter [3] - By December, the urban survey unemployment rate is anticipated to be 5.2% [3]

Group 1: Employment Stability - The overall employment situation in China remains stable, with an average urban survey unemployment rate of 5.2% in 2025, lower than the expected target of around 5.5% [1] - The unemployment rate in 31 major cities averaged 5.1%, consistent with the previous year, and remained between 5.0% and 5.3% throughout the year [1] - The unemployment rate for urban labor aged 30-59 was 4.0%, 1.2 percentage points lower than the national urban average, indicating a stable employment foundation for this demographic [1] Group 2: Income Growth - In 2025, the per capita disposable income of residents reached 43,377 RMB, reflecting a real growth of 5.0%, in line with economic growth [3] - Rural residents' income growth outpaced urban residents by 1.5 and 1.8 percentage points in nominal and real terms, respectively, leading to a reduction in the urban-rural income gap from 2.34 to 2.31 [3] - The growth in income is supported by stable increases in wage income, operating net income, and transfer net income [3] Group 3: Price Stability - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China remained stable in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8% in December, the highest since March 2023 [4] - The overall CPI for the year was flat compared to the previous year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [4] - Favorable climate conditions and sufficient supply of food contributed to the stability of prices, with ongoing policies aimed at boosting consumption expected to further support price stability [4]

Group 1 - The overall urban survey unemployment rate in 2025 averaged 5.2%, which is below the expected target of around 5.5% [2] - The unemployment rate fluctuated throughout the year, peaking at 5.4% in February and stabilizing at 5.1% in the last quarter [2] - The average unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.1%, remaining stable compared to the previous year and lower than the national urban average by 0.1 percentage points [2] Group 2 - The unemployment rate for urban workers aged 30-59 averaged 4.0%, which is 1.2 percentage points lower than the national urban average [3] - The unemployment rate for migrant workers remained stable, averaging 4.7% for the year, with a decrease to 4.4% in November and December [3] - Efforts to support migrant workers through labor matching and the development of rural industries contributed to overall employment stability [3] Group 3 - Employment in the transportation, accommodation, and catering sectors continued to increase in 2025, reflecting the implementation of employment-first strategies [4] - The manufacturing sector maintained a stable share of national employment, while service industries showed significant growth in employment numbers [4] - Economic stability, industrial transformation, and supportive employment policies provided a solid foundation for maintaining employment levels [4]

Group 1 - The average urban survey unemployment rate in China from January to November is 5.2% [1] - In November, the urban survey unemployment rate remains at 5.1%, unchanged from the previous month [1] - The unemployment rate for local registered labor is 5.3%, while the rate for migrant labor is 4.7%, with agricultural migrant labor at 4.4% [1] Group 2 - The urban survey unemployment rate in 31 major cities is 5.1%, consistent with the previous month [1] - The average weekly working hours for employed persons in the country is 48.6 hours [1]