Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September is crucial for assessing future interest rate paths, especially after the Fed's recent rate cut of 25 basis points [5][6] - The report is expected to confirm concerns raised by Fed Chair Powell regarding "substantial risks" in the job market, as the previous month's job addition was only 22,000, far below expectations [6][7] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for September will be released on October 1, with the previous month's index at 48.7, indicating contraction for six consecutive months [8][11] Key Events - The U.S. federal government funding is set to expire on September 30, with a potential government shutdown on October 1 if Congress does not act [16][17] - The Korean government has implemented a temporary visa waiver policy for Chinese group tourists starting September 29, lasting until June of the following year [25] - U-tree Technology plans to submit its IPO application between October and December 2025, marking a significant move in the domestic robotics sector [21] Market Implications - A government shutdown could delay the release of key economic data, including the non-farm payroll and CPI, increasing market uncertainty [17] - The upcoming Japanese Liberal Democratic Party presidential election on October 4 may lead to heightened political uncertainty, impacting market sentiment [22][24]

Group 1 - The risk of a partial government shutdown in the U.S. is increasing as Democrats and Republicans are at an impasse over funding proposals, which could impact financial regulatory operations and delay key economic data releases [1] - Historically, markets have been indifferent to government shutdowns, but this time may be different due to potential delays in critical economic data like monthly employment and inflation reports, leading to "blind decision-making" by the Federal Reserve [2] - A prolonged shutdown could solidify market expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve as investors struggle to assess the extent of economic slowdown [2] Group 2 - Financial regulatory agencies like the SEC may significantly reduce staff and operations during a shutdown, retaining only core teams, which would impair their ability to conduct essential functions such as corporate filing reviews and market oversight [3][4] - The CFTC plans to place most of its employees on unpaid leave during a shutdown, halting most market regulatory activities, while banking and consumer protection agencies will continue to operate normally as their funding is not dependent on Congress [4][5] - The IPO process will be adversely affected, as companies will be unable to proceed with listings without SEC approval, potentially stalling the momentum in the equity capital markets [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing upward momentum against the US dollar (USD) due to optimistic sentiments surrounding US-China trade negotiations, with the AUD/USD exchange rate rising to approximately 0.6420 [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Substantial progress has been made in the high-level US-China economic talks, leading to important consensus and the establishment of a US-China economic consultation mechanism [1] - A joint statement regarding the outcomes of the talks is expected to be released on May 12 [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Sentiment - Traders are closely monitoring upcoming key economic data from Australia, including the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index and the National Australia Bank Business Conditions Index, which may provide new insights for the AUD [1] - Investors are also focused on forthcoming US data, such as consumer inflation figures and retail sales, to assess the initial impact of the trade dispute on the broader economy [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD exchange rate is trading around 0.6420, with technical analysis indicating a neutral bias as it remains below the ascending channel [1] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50, suggesting that bullish momentum is still in play [1] Group 4: Future Projections - The AUD/USD may return to the ascending channel and retest the six-month high of 0.6515 reached on December 2, 2024, with a potential breakthrough supporting a rise towards the seven-month high of 0.6687 [2] - Initial support levels for the AUD/USD are at the nine-day exponential moving average of 0.6420 and the 50-day exponential moving average of 0.6345, with a drop below these levels potentially weakening the bullish outlook [2]