By Kevin Flanagan, Head of Fixed Income Strategy Key Takeaways As the money and bond markets enter the second calendar week of the federal government shutdown, I thought it would be prudent to offer some insights and answer some questions our team has been fielding. While it doesn't seem as if an end is in immediate sight for the shutdown, as we've seen this year, developments and headlines can change quickly. Here are some key takeaways: The Facts: Bottom Line Typically, when disruptions such as a shutdown ...

Group 1 - Senator Warren urges the government to release the September employment report despite the government shutdown, emphasizing its importance for the Federal Reserve's decision-making on interest rates [1][2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reportedly completed the collection of September labor data, and the employment report is likely ready for release if the government reopens [1][2] - The government shutdown is causing a disruption in the release of key economic data, leading to a reliance on alternative data sources, such as the ADP report, which indicates a significant decline in private sector employment [2][3] Group 2 - The monthly employment report is considered one of the most critical economic data points in the U.S., especially amid concerns over a weakening job market and rising unemployment [3] - The White House attributes the government shutdown to the Democrats, claiming it undermines the economy and disrupts timely public data essential for decision-making by businesses and policymakers [3]

The market appears to be taking a breath after gold prices climbed closer to $4,000 a troy ounce. Traders remain on edge due to the government shutdown and its effect on data releases, says Felipe Barragán of Pepperstone in a note. Gold futures turn lower, with the front-month contract pulling back after rising to new highs for five consecutive sessions. Today's finish is still the third-highest close in gold's history. "Without important upcoming economic data, traders will closely monitor oil prices as we ...

The Labor Department is preparing for what would amount to a news and data blackout should the U.S. government suspend operations.In a contingency plan released Friday, the department said it was looking "to ensure that DOL agencies can perform an orderly suspension of programs and operations should a lapse occur, while continuing those limited activities authorized to continue during a lapse."While the department's scope covers a multitude of areas, the impact on data releases will be pressing for investor ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 美国劳工统计局（BLS）：一旦发生政府停摆，将暂停所有运转，期间不会发布经济数据。 ...

以下文章来源于见闻历 ，作者龙玥 见闻历 . 每天多看我一眼，投资赚的多一点。 | 见闻财经日历 | | ¥ 华尔街见闻 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WSCN Economic Calendar | | | | | 时间 | 内容 | 预期 前值 | | | 9月29日 周一 | | | | | 数据 | 元 | | | | 事件 待定 | 韩国9月29日起对中国团队游客实行临时免签政策 | | | | 9月30日 周二 | | | | | 09:30 | 中国 9月官方制造业PMI | | 49.4 | | 数据 09:45 | 中国 9月RatingDog制造业PMI | | 50.5 | | 待定 事件 | 美国政府联邦资金耗尽,参议院复会:审议临时支 出议案 | | | | 13:30 | 澳洲联储主席布洛克召开货币政策新闻发布会 | | | | 10月1日 周三 | | | | | 17:00 | 欧元区 9月调和CPl同比初值 | | 2% | | 数据 20:15 | 美国 9月ADP就业人数变动(万人) | 5 | 5.4 | | 22:00 | 美国 9月 ...

智通财经APP获悉，随着美国国会民主党与共和党就联邦政府后续资金拨付方案陷入僵局，美国政府部 门下周开始部分停摆的风险正持续上升。如果政府停摆，这可能通过限制金融监管机构的运作、推迟关 键经济数据的发布等方式对市场产生影响。 市场可能作何反应? 从历史经验来看，市场往往对政府停摆不以为意。但这一次，情况或许会有所不同。 野村证券分析师在本周报告中指出，若停摆持续时间较长，可能导致投资者评估宏观经济趋势所需的关 键数据延迟发布甚至取消，例如月度就业报告与通胀数据。 分析师进一步表示，这将使美联储陷入"盲目决策"的境地，从而更有可能坚持其原有的2025年剩余时间 内两次降息25个基点的经济预测。 道明证券在一份报告中提到，由于投资者无法判断美国经济放缓的程度，市场对降息的预期将更加坚 定，进而可能导致美国国债收益率曲线进一步陡峭化，短期与长期国债收益率的差距也会随之扩大。 此外，长期政府停摆还可能影响部分市场参与者开展复杂交易的能力——这类交易往往需要监管机构提 供指导支持。 根据美国证券交易委员会(SEC)2024年10月制定的政府资金中断应急预案，若停摆启动，该机构或将大 幅缩减人员规模，仅保留核心骨干团队。 ...

周一（5月12日）亚洲早盘，澳大利亚元（AUD）正在延续其近期的势头，周一连续第二个交易日兑美 元（USD）上涨，因中美贸易谈判乐观，澳元/美元在0.6400上方聚集力量，最新澳元兑美元汇率涨至 0.6420附近。澳元兑美元的汇率受到美国和中国在日内瓦举行的贸易谈判中日益增长的乐观情绪的提 振。 澳元兑美元汇率正在测试其初步支撑位，位于九天指数移动平均线0.6420，随后是50天指数移动平均线 0.6345。跌破这些水平可能会削弱看涨前景，并可能导致该汇率跌至自2020年3月以来的最低点0.5914。 展望未来，交易员们正关注澳大利亚的关键经济数据发布，包括周二的西太平洋消费者信心指数和澳大 利亚国民银行商业状况指数，这些数据可能为澳元提供新的线索。投资者还关注即将公布的美国数据， 包括周二的消费者通胀数据，以及周四的零售销售和生产者价格指数数据，以评估贸易争端对更广泛经 济的初步影响。 周一，澳元对美元汇率在0.6420附近交易。日线图的技术分析显示中性倾向，因为该汇率维持在上升通 道模式下方。然而，14天相对强弱指数（RSI）仍保持在50以上，表明多头趋势仍在发挥作用。 在上涨方面，澳元兑美元汇率可能会回 ...