美国财长贝森特：在美联储主席提名问题上，我们不急于求成。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, highlighting potential risks to the Fed's credibility and independence due to political interference [4][7][10]. Group 1: Trump's Influence on the Federal Reserve - President Trump claims that current interest rates are "at least 3 percentage points too high" and criticizes Fed Chairman Powell for increasing refinancing costs by $360 billion annually [4][5]. - Trump has expressed a desire for any replacement for Powell, indicating ongoing dissatisfaction with the current Fed leadership [5]. - The suggestion of appointing a "shadow chairman" to influence the Fed's decisions raises concerns about the institution's credibility and independence [7][8]. Group 2: Credibility and Independence Concerns - The potential appointment of a "shadow chairman" could undermine the Fed's traditional non-political stance, leading to fears of a loss of independence in monetary policy [8][9]. - Trump's insistence on rate cuts is linked to reducing government debt servicing costs, which diverges from the Fed's dual mandate of stable inflation and full employment [9][10]. - The next Fed chair may face skepticism regarding their integrity and the potential compromises made to secure their nomination [12][13]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Uncertainties - Wall Street generally dislikes uncertainty, especially regarding sensitive areas like monetary policy, which could complicate the Fed's ability to guide interest rate expectations [16][19]. - The market's response to potential rate cuts and the appointment of a "shadow chairman" remains unclear, with concerns that such actions could lead to inflation worries and increased bond yields [16][19]. - The upcoming FOMC meeting minutes are expected to provide further insights into the Fed's stance on interest rates, with market participants anticipating a potential rate cut in September [19][20].

Group 1 - International gold prices are currently experiencing a downward trend, with prices at $3286.31 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 1.24% [1] - The highest price reached was $3328.16 per ounce, while the lowest was $3283.49 per ounce [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faced challenges from President Trump, who may soon nominate a new Fed chair, potentially undermining Powell's authority [2] - Trump criticized Powell during a press conference, calling him a "very ordinary person" and suggesting he has a "low IQ" [2] - Trump's derogatory remarks about Powell may indicate potential actions against him, signaling a shift in the political landscape surrounding the Federal Reserve [3] Group 3 - The analysis indicates that gold prices have shown a continuous decline, with a significant drop below the previous low of $3295, suggesting further downward movement [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3277 and $3263, with a recommendation to avoid aggressive short positions unless a significant rebound occurs [4] - The overall market direction for gold remains bearish, with a focus on short positions unless a strong resistance is encountered [4]

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has reached a new low since February 2022, currently at 97.48, with a year-to-date decline of 10.1% [1] - President Trump is considering an early nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chair to diminish the influence of the current Chair, Jerome Powell, who has 11 months remaining in his term [1] - The new Chair is expected to take office in May next year, and an announcement this summer or fall would be significantly earlier than the traditional three to four months transition period, potentially affecting investor expectations on future interest rate trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair are being discussed, with a focus on their policy implications and the timing of the nomination process, which may occur as early as this fall [1][3]. Candidate Summaries - **Kevin Walsh: "Consensus" Candidate** - Many clients view Kevin Walsh as the clear favorite for the next Fed Chair, despite his historically hawkish stance on Fed policies, which has raised concerns about inflation linked to tariffs [3]. - **Kevin Hassett: Rising Star** - Kevin Hassett, former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, is seen as a strong candidate due to his conservative background and potential support from Republican lawmakers. His approach may align with the government's goal of a more dovish monetary policy [5]. - **Christopher Waller: Long-Term Candidate** - Christopher Waller, a Fed Governor since 2020, has recently adopted a more dovish perspective. He is considered a long-term candidate, with the potential to advocate for lowering interest rates to neutral levels if appointed [7]. - **Janet Yellen: Difficult Trade-Off** - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's potential candidacy raises questions about her influence on government policy if she transitions to the Fed. Her current role may provide better opportunities to achieve long-term yield reduction goals [9]. - **Dark Horses** - Other candidates may emerge in the coming months, including Stephen Moore and Jim Bullard, as well as potential nominations from Wall Street figures not currently in the spotlight [10].

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普表示，他将在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔任期结束前近一年时提名 继任者。投资者认为这可能给市场带来风险。 特朗普毫不掩饰对鲍威尔和美联储自他1月开始第二任期以来未降息的不满。尽管特朗普已收回今年早 些时候可能解雇鲍威尔的言论，且近期美国最高法院的裁决缓解了相关担忧，但他在本月早些时候表 示，将很快决定下任美联储主席人选。 投资者称，在鲍威尔2026年5月任期结束前很久就宣布这一消息，可能会引发市场严重不安。一个与现 任央行领导人在货币政策上观点可能冲突的"影子"美联储主席可能会造成混乱。 鉴于投资者普遍认为美联储的独立性对其正常运作至关重要，任何被视为受特朗普控制的选择都会令华 尔街感到恐慌。 联博首席美国经济学家埃里克·维诺格拉德表示，"无论任命谁，关键是要看他们是否被视为政治任 命，""我指的是那些观点随总统心血来潮而改变的人。" 制定美国货币政策并负责维持充分就业和物价稳定的美联储主席是华尔街最关注的政府官员之一。不 过，美联储主席只是央行货币政策制定委员会18名成员之一，其部分职责是在委员会内建立共识。 瑞银全球财富管理美洲资产配置主管杰森·德拉霍表示，如果在未来几个月内 ...