Core Insights - The article examines the historical trends of the 10-year Treasury yield since 1962, highlighting its correlation with significant economic indicators such as the Fed Funds Rate, inflation, and the S&P 500 [1] Economic Indicators - The relationship between the 10-year Treasury yield and the Fed Funds Rate is analyzed, indicating how changes in monetary policy impact long-term interest rates [1] - Inflation trends are discussed in relation to the 10-year Treasury yield, emphasizing the yield's role as a predictor of future inflation expectations [1] - The article also explores the connection between the 10-year Treasury yield and the performance of the S&P 500, suggesting that shifts in yield can influence equity market dynamics [1]

今日周一(11月3日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于11410一线上方，今日开盘于11449元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报11423元/千克，上涨0.11%，最高触及11480元/千克，最低下探11245元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克周五表示，她对于改革美联储实施货币政策所采用的利率目标持开放态度。 在达拉斯联储举办的活动中，她指出货币市场结构已发生深刻变化，表明正在考虑从现行的联邦基金利 率目标转向其他利率指标。 "我认为现在应该更广泛地探索如何最优实施货币政策，"哈玛克在发言中强调。此番表态呼应了她近期 与达拉斯联储主席洛根形成的共识，即金融市场定价机制已逐渐脱离传统联邦基金利率的锚定效应。 另外她直言："我更倾向于本周保持利率不变。"在她看来，美联储刚降完25基点，当前政策利率已接近 她心目中的"中性水平"——"基本没有限制性，如果不是完全没有的话"。 哈玛克强调，要让通胀真正回到2%目标，必须维持"一定程度的限制性"。言外之意：现在降息等于给 通胀"松绑"，后患无穷。值得一提的是，哈玛克和洛根明年都将轮到FOMC投票席位，届时她们的鹰派 立 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is asserting its influence over interest rates, indicating a preference for higher rates despite the Federal Reserve's actions [1][2] - The current administration is focusing on stimulating the housing market, which is not responding positively, highlighting a disconnect between policy intentions and market realities [2] - Recent data shows that both 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields have increased, with a notable rise of 10 basis points this week [3] Group 2 - The dollar index has risen significantly, moving from close to 97 towards 100, reflecting the limitations of the Federal Reserve's ability to influence the market without resorting to quantitative easing [4] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion, indicating progress but still remaining above pre-crisis levels [5]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, Harker, expressed an open attitude towards reforming the interest rate targets used in monetary policy, indicating a shift from the traditional federal funds rate to other interest rate indicators [1] Group 1 - Harker highlighted that the structure of the money market has undergone profound changes, suggesting a need to explore optimal implementations of monetary policy [1] - This statement aligns with a recent consensus formed with Dallas Fed President Logan, indicating that financial market pricing mechanisms are gradually detaching from the traditional anchoring effect of the federal funds rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points and halt the balance sheet reduction reflects internal divisions and concerns about economic stability and inflation [1][12]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve has reduced the federal funds rate from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 and the second consecutive month of cuts [4][12]. - Lower borrowing costs for banks may lead to reduced interest rates for mortgages and corporate loans, potentially stimulating economic activity and increasing wages [4][5]. Group 2: Balance Sheet Reduction Halt - The Fed has decided to stop its balance sheet reduction, which began in 2022, where it allowed $6.6 trillion in assets to "naturally disappear" by not reinvesting in maturing securities [6][9]. - Starting December 1, the Fed will reinvest the principal from maturing mortgage-backed securities into short-term Treasury bonds, signaling a return of liquidity to the market [7][9]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, financial markets experienced volatility, with initial gains in U.S. stocks and gold prices, but later corrections occurred after Fed Chair Powell indicated uncertainty about future rate cuts [12][13]. - The Dow Jones index fell by 0.16%, while the Nasdaq index rose by 0.55%, driven by strong performance from tech stocks like Nvidia, which saw a nearly 3% increase [12][13]. Group 4: Internal Divisions - The Fed is experiencing notable internal divisions, with dovish members advocating for aggressive rate cuts to stimulate the economy, while hawkish members express concerns about potential inflation risks [15][16]. - The debate extends to the balance sheet strategy, with differing opinions on whether to continue reducing the asset size or maintain the current level to ensure market stability [16].

Core Insights - The New York Federal Reserve reported a decrease in the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) to 4.27% on October 29, down from 4.31% the previous day [1] - The effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.12% on the same day [1] Group 1 - SOFR decreased by 0.04 percentage points from the previous day [1] - The effective federal funds rate has not changed, remaining stable at 4.12% [1]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% during the meeting on October 28-29, marking the second rate cut in 2025 following September's decision [1] - The Fed announced it will halt the monthly reduction of its balance sheet starting December 1, effectively ending the quantitative tightening (QT) process that began in 2022 [1] - UOB's macro research report indicated that the Fed may cut rates by another 25 basis points in December and potentially two more cuts in 2026 [1] - The rate decision was not unanimous, with a vote of 10 to 2; Fed Governor Miran opposed the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Schmid preferred to maintain rates [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve continues its interest rate cut by 25 basis points and plans to end its balance sheet reduction (QT) in December [1][2] - The target range for the federal funds rate is lowered from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first consecutive rate cuts in a year [1][2] - Market expectations have fully absorbed the likelihood of three rate cuts this year, with a 99.9% probability for the recent cut and a 91% probability for another cut in December [2] Group 2 - The decision to end the balance sheet reduction means that the Fed's QT actions will conclude after three and a half years, with short-term Treasury securities replacing maturing MBS holdings starting in December [2][3] - The Fed will reinvest principal payments from maturing securities into short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, with specific limits on the amounts for different securities [3] Group 3 - Fed Chair Powell indicated that there is significant disagreement among committee members regarding the potential for another rate cut in December, emphasizing that future policy is not predetermined [5][6] - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with GDP growth at 1.6% for the first half of the year, lower than the previous year's 2.4% [6] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with employment growth slowing and increased risks to job stability noted [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, but Chairman Powell's comments weakened market confidence in a December rate cut, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points, marking the second cut since September 17 [1]. - The FOMC noted that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while inflation remains high [1]. Diverging Opinions within the Fed - There are significant divisions within the Federal Reserve, with some members concerned that premature or excessive rate cuts could reignite inflation, while others argue for more aggressive easing to prevent deeper economic recession [2]. - Powell indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, emphasizing the uncertainty due to a lack of government data during the shutdown [2]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's statements, U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 10-year yield increasing by 10.01 basis points to 4.0757% and the 2-year yield rising by 10.82 basis points to 3.5980% [2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December has dropped from over 90% to below 70% according to CME FedWatch [4]. Asset and Balance Sheet Management - The FOMC announced the end of balance sheet reduction operations starting December 1, which had involved monthly reductions of $50 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities [4]. - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased from nearly $9 trillion to approximately $7.2 trillion since the start of the balance sheet reduction in 2022, which is expected to alleviate liquidity pressures in the interbank market [4].

智通财经记者 林倩冰 美联储如期继续降息25个基点。 北京时间10月30日凌晨，美联储最新的议息决议将联邦基金利率的目标区间下调25个基点至3.75%-4%，符合市场预期。 美联储在声明中表示，可获得的指标表明，经济活动一直在以温和的速度扩张。今年，就业增长放缓，自8月来失业率小幅上升，但仍保持在低 位。更近期的指标也与这一情况相符。通胀在今年稍早时便有所上升，且保持了一定程度的高企。委员会注意到其双重任务面临的双面风险，并 判断近几个月就业下行的风险已经上升。 与9月议息声明相比，本月议息声明增加了对时间范围的描述。比如，议息声明新增强调就业增长"今年"以来有所放缓，失业率"自8月以来"小幅 上升，并新增"更近期的指标也与这一情况相符"，通胀在"今年早些时候"便有所上升，委员会判断"近几个月"就业下行的风险已经上升。 同时，声明强调本次判断是依靠"可获得的"指标所得，或表明美国政府"停摆"导致的数据缺失对议息会议仍有所影响。 声明表示，在评估合适的货币政策立场时，委员会将继续监控未来的经济数据的影响。如果风险的发生会阻碍达成委员会的双重目标，委员会会 为调整适当的货币政策立场做好准备。委员会的评估将考虑到大 ...