Report Information - Report Title: "Rebar Industry Chain Daily Report 2025/6/30" [1] - Researcher: Cai Yuehui [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F0251444 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0013101 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the RB2510 contract rose and then fell. Macroscopically, China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China's interests to obtain so - called tariff exemptions. If this happens, China will resolutely counter and safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased, the capacity utilization rate reached 47.75%, and the operating rate of electric - arc furnace steel mills continued to decline. Terminal demand was average, with factory inventories increasing and social inventories decreasing, and the decline in total inventory narrowed. The apparent demand remained around 2.19 million tons. Raw material coal and coke prices declined at the end of the session, weakening cost support, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA adjusted from high levels, and the red column shrank. The operation suggestion is short - term trading within the day, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 2,997 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the trading volume of the RB main contract was 2,124,170 lots, down 18,643 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was 1,534 lots, down 31,792 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 18 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 18,221 tons, unchanged; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 126 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,231 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the basis of the RB main contract was 153 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 713 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the domestic iron ore port inventory was 139.3023 million tons, up 360,700 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 738,100 tons, down 73,100 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.2751 million tons, down 65,000 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 772,600 tons, up 80,000 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.1784 million tons, up 56,600 tons; the capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills for rebar was 47.75%, up 1.25 percentage points; the factory inventory of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.856 million tons, up 32,800 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.634 million tons, down 53,500 tons; the operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 86.55 million tons, up 53,000 tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 17.3 million tons, up 42,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 1.01 million tons, up 16,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.72, down 0.13; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 3.70%, down 0.30 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.70%, down 0.40 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was 5.60%, down 0.20 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.2502 billion square meters, down 4.704 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, down 53.48 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing was 412.64 million square meters, up 4.39 million square meters. In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment continued to improve [2] Industry News - In the five sub - indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, and supplier delivery time index were all above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employment index were below the critical point. On the 29th, the Ministry of Water Resources and the China Meteorological Administration jointly issued a red mountain flood disaster meteorological warning, predicting a high possibility of mountain floods in eastern Sichuan and western Chongqing from 20:00 on the 29th to 20:00 on the 30th. In addition, the Ministry of Water Resources launched a level - IV emergency response for flood prevention in Chongqing, Sichuan, and Gansu on the 29th [2]

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 2,986.00 | +5↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 2133943 | -7054↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | 18699 | +14380↑ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 8 | +1↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 37751 | 0.00 HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 116 | +4↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,130.00 | +10↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,210 | +10↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,180.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,200.00 ...

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/6/17 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：RB：螺纹钢；HC：热轧卷板 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 2,981.00 | -9↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 2140997 | -23735↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | 4319 | -6430↓ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 7 | +2↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 37751 | +2985↑ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 112 | -2↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,130.00 | 0.00 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,210 | 0.00 | | | 广州 HRB400E ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 2,974.00 | -7↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 2165234 | -31488↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -14883 | -14063↓ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 4 | +2↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 37755 | 0.00 HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 115 | +1↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,120.00 | 0.00 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,200 | 0.00 | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,210.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,200.00 | 0.00 | | | RB 主力合约基差 (元/吨) | 146.00 | +7↑ 杭州热 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 9, 2025, the RB2510 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. Macroscopically, Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 47.89%, with the reduction amplitude in the off - season expanding. Both the factory inventory and social inventory of rebar continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed down, with the total inventory decreasing by 10.57 tons. In addition, the steel export volume in May exceeded 10 million tons again. Overall, the apparent demand for rebar declined, but recent steel prices were more affected by macro factors. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is short - term trading within the day, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 2,981 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the position volume was 2,196,722 lots, down 19,727 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 820 lots, down 16,330 lots. The spread between the RB10 - 1 contract was 2 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 37,755 tons, down 2,412 tons. The spread between the HC2510 - RB2510 contract was 114 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the spot market, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 139 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - In the upstream market, the price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 726 yuan/wet ton, down 9 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,320 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,205 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,900 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 138.2669 million tons, down 398,900 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 881,900 tons, up 97,100 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.4595 million tons, down 89,300 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 674,500 tons, up 2,800 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.54%, down 0.35 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.63%, down 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - In the industry, the weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.1846 million tons, down 70,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar from sample steel mills was 47.89%, down 1.55 percentage points; the factory inventory of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.8486 million tons, down 16,000 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.8562 million tons, down 89,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 72.92%, down 1.04 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output was 86.02 million tons, down 6.82 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 18.61 million tons, up 1.31 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 10.097 million tons, up 157,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - In the downstream market, the national real estate prosperity index was 93.86, down 0.09; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 4.00%, down 0.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.30%, down 0.40 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was 5.80%, unchanged. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.20315 billion square meters, down 66.1 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 178.36 million square meters, down 48.39 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing was 417.03 million square meters, up 4.55 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to customs data on June 9, in May 2025, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, an increase of 116,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. From January to May, the cumulative export of steel was 48.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. In May, China imported 481,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9%. From January to May, the cumulative import of steel was 2.553 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. In May 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% year - on - year [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the RB2510 contract decreased in price with reduced positions. In terms of macro - aspects, the Ministry of Commerce responded to new US restrictions on China and aimed to maintain the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks. Regarding supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 47.89%. The inventory in mills and social inventory of rebar continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed, with the total inventory decreasing by 10.57 tons. Overall, high temperature and rain affected terminal demand, leading to a decline in the apparent demand for rebar. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were below the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is short - term intraday trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 2,959 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; the position volume was 2,257,013 lots, a decrease of 23,378 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 1,732 lots, a decrease of 23,829 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was 8 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 40,167 tons, unchanged; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 118 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 151 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 735 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 7 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,205 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 138.6658 million tons, a decrease of 1.2125 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 784,800 tons, an increase of 51,800 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.5488 million tons, a decrease of 60,200 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 674,500 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons. The blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills was 83.89%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.67%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 2.1846 million tons, a decrease of 70,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 47.89%, a decrease of 1.55 percentage points; the mill inventory of rebar was 1.8486 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.8562 million tons, a decrease of 89,700 tons. The operation rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 73.96%, a decrease of 1.04 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 86.02 million tons, a decrease of 6.82 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.861 million tons, an increase of 131,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 994,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.86, a decrease of 0.09; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 4.00%, a decrease of 0.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 10.30%, a decrease of 0.40 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was 5.80%, unchanged. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.20315 billion square meters, a decrease of 66.1 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area decreased by 48.39 million square meters; the unsold housing area was 41.703 million square meters, an increase of 455,000 square meters [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel on June 5, the actual output of rebar was 2.1846 million tons, a decrease of 70,500 tons; the mill inventory was 1.8486 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons; the social inventory was 3.8562 million tons, a decrease of 89,700 tons; the total inventory was 5.7048 million tons, a decrease of 105,700 tons; the apparent demand was 2.2903 million tons, a decrease of 196,500 tons. According to the survey of Centennial Building Network, on June 4, the mainstream cement enterprises in Guiyang, Guizhou, announced a price increase of 70 yuan/ton; from June 5, high - grade bulk cement in Shanghai and Jiaxing regions also increased in price. Recently, due to tight supply - demand in the cement market and cost support, cement prices in many places have started to rise [2]

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/5/29 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 2,978.00 | +14↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 2377320 | -64068↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -66278 | +64122↑ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -7 | +7↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 2,980.00 | -24↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 2399979 | +50834↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -138821 | -42764↓ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -18 | -2↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 41975 | -4↓ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 131 | -3↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,120.00 | -20↓ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,200 | -21↓ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,290.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,190.00 | 0.00 | | | RB 主力合约基差 (元/吨) | 140.00 | +4↑ ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,079.00 | -3↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 2151176 | -29285↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -10906 | -7552↓ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -23 | -2↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 148997 | -19706↓ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 136 | -2↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,210.00 | +10↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,292 | +10↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,410.00 | +20↑ 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,210. ...