1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated weakly. In the macro - aspect, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% in the first half of the year, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.49%; the factory inventory increased and the social inventory decreased, and the total inventory of 5.4037 million tons declined slightly again, and the apparent demand decreased by 33,700 tons. Overall, the sluggish real - estate data affected market confidence, the speculative demand for rebar was not active, and the trading performance was mediocre. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA continued to adjust downward. The operation strategy is to be bearish on fluctuations, and pay attention to the support around 3090 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,106 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the position volume was 2,137,057 lots, down 16,795 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 15,823 lots, down 7,662 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 44 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 96,689 tons, unchanged; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 147 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; (actual weight) was 3,344 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 154 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 756 yuan/wet ton, up 4 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 137.6589 million tons, down 1.1251 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 597,700 tons, down 19,400 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3797 million tons, up 4,200 tons; the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, up 0.42 percentage points; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 97.53%, up 10.19 percentage points; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 898,700 tons, down 4,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 2.1666 million tons, down 44,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar of sample steel mills was 47.49%, down 0.98 percentage points; the factory inventory of rebar of sample steel mills was 1.8088 million tons, up 4,100 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.5949 million tons, down 52,500 tons; the operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 60.42%, down 3.12 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, down 3.37 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.73 million tons, up 42,000 tons; the net export volume of steel products was 9.208 million tons, down 892,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate prosperity index was 93.60, down 0.11; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.01 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, down 71.8 million square meters; the unsold housing area was 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 16, many places such as Henan, Shaanxi, Hunan, Hubei, and Sichuan issued red high - temperature warnings, and the local temperature in some areas of Wuhan, Jingmen, and Huanggang in Hubei could reach over 41°C. From January to June, the national real - estate development investment was 466.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The housing construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%. The new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, a decrease of 20.0%. The housing completion area was 225.67 million square meters, a decrease of 14.8% [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, factory inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract faced pressure and pulled back. The real - estate market's downturn drags down steel prices, but the exit of backward production capacity supports the steel market. The weekly output of rebar decreased, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.49%. The total inventory slightly declined, and the apparent demand dropped by 3.37 tons. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows a downward adjustment. It is recommended to trade in the range of 3140 - 3090 for the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,114.00 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; position: 2,153,852 lots, up 31,511 lots; top 20 net positions: - 8,161 lots, down 31,162 lots; RB10 - 1 contract spread: - 46 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; RB SHFE warehouse receipt: 96,689 tons, up 8,179 tons; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 145 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,260.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; (actual weight): 3,344 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,190.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; RB main contract basis: 146.00 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 50.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 752.00 yuan/wet ton, down 3.00 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,265.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 2,950.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; domestic iron ore port inventory: 137.6589 million tons, down 1.1251 million tons; sample coking plant coke inventory: 597,700 tons, down 19,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.3797 million tons, up 4,200 tons; Tangshan billet inventory: 975,300 tons, up 101,900 tons; 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.13%, down 0.31%; 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 89.87%, down 0.40%; sample steel mill rebar output: 2.1666 million tons, down 44,200 tons; sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 47.49%, down 0.98%; sample steel mill rebar inventory: 1.8088 million tons, up 4,100 tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory: 3.5949 million tons, down 52,500 tons; independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 60.42%, down 3.12%; domestic crude steel output: 83.18 million tons, down 3.37 million tons; Chinese rebar monthly output: 1.73 million tons, up 42,000 tons; steel net export volume: 9.208 million tons, down 892,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - National Real Estate Climate Index: 93.60, down 0.11; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: 2.80%, down 0.90%; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment: - 11.20%, down 0.50%; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment: 4.60%, down 1.00%; cumulative value of housing construction area: 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.01 million square meters; cumulative value of new housing construction area: 303.64 million square meters, down 71.8 million square meters; commercial housing unsold area: 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; pig iron output was 71.91 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%; steel output was 127.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. From January to June, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%; pig iron output was 434.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%; steel output was 734.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. - From January to June, the national real - estate development investment was 4.6658 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The cumulative housing construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%. The new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, a decrease of 20.0%. The housing completion area was 225.67 million square meters, a decrease of 14.8% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Thursday, the RB2510 contract continued to rebound. The National Development and Reform Commission recently allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 billion yuan "two major" construction project list for this year has been fully released. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to increase, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.47%; the factory inventory decreased while the social inventory increased, with a total inventory decrease of 37,900 tons and an apparent demand of 2.2487 million tons, an increase of 49,600 tons. Overall, rebar performed better than expected, with increased output, decreased inventory, and improved apparent demand. Meanwhile, the "anti-involution" policy continued to boost steel prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were running above the 0 axis. The operation strategy is to be bullish on fluctuations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,076 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the position volume was 2,237,249 lots, up 10,870 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was 53,683 lots, up 21,682 lots; the spread between the RB10 - 1 contract was -14 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 27,073 tons, up 1,803 tons; the spread between the HC2510 - RB2510 contract was 132 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price (actual weight) was 3,282 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the RB main contract was 124 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the spot spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 60 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 706 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,930 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - The domestic iron ore port inventory was 139.3023 million tons, up 360,700 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 738,100 tons, down 73,100 tons [2]. - The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.2751 million tons, down 65,000 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 873,400 tons, up 100,800 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.2108 million tons, up 32,400 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar from sample steel mills was 48.47%, up 0.72 percentage points [2]. - The factory inventory of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.8047 million tons, down 51,300 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.6474 million tons, up 13,400 tons [2]. - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged; the domestic crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, up 530,000 tons [2]. - China's monthly rebar output was 17.3 million tons, up 420,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 10.1 million tons, up 160,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 93.72, down 0.13; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment completion was 3.70%, down 0.30 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.70%, down 0.40 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 5.60%, down 0.20 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.2502 billion square meters, down 4.704 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, down 53.48 million square meters [2]. - The unsold area of commercial housing was 412.64 million square meters, up 4.39 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnamese exports to the US will be subject to a 20% tariff, and any transshipment goods will be subject to a 40% tariff. Vietnam has agreed to cancel all taxes on imported US goods [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission recently allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 billion yuan "two major" construction project list for this year has been fully released [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract first declined and then rebounded. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month and back in the expansion range. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased, the capacity utilization rate was 47.75%, and the operating rate of electric arc furnace steel mills continued to decline; the factory inventory increased while the social inventory decreased, the decline of the total inventory narrowed, and the apparent demand remained around 2.19 million tons. The raw material coal and coke prices dropped, weakening the cost support, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA have returned above the 0-axis. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,003.00 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the position volume was down 48,103 hands. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was 3,894 hands, up 2,360 hands. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 13 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 24,614 tons, up 6,393 tons. The HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 133 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,160.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,241 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) and Tianjin (theoretical weight) remained unchanged at 3,160.00 yuan/ton. The basis of the RB main contract was 157.00 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 50.00 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 706.00 yuan/wet ton, down 7.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,900.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 13,930.23 million tons, up 36.07 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 73.81 million tons, down 7.31 million tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 627.51 million tons, down 6.50 million tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 77.26 million tons, up 8.00 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 217.84 million tons, up 5.66 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills for rebar was 47.75%, up 1.25 percentage points. The factory inventory of sample steel mills for rebar was 185.60 million tons, up 3.28 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 363.40 million tons, down 5.35 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged. The domestic crude steel output was 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1,730 million tons, up 42 million tons. The net export volume of steel was 1,010.00 million tons, up 16.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Housing Prosperity Index was 93.72, down 0.13. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 3.70%, down 0.30 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.70%, down 0.40 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 5.60%, down 0.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 625,020 million square meters, down 4,704 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 23,184 million square meters, down 5,348 million square meters. The inventory of commercial housing for sale was 41,264.00 million square meters, up 439.00 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The third round and fourth batch of 8 central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams were stationed in 5 provinces (autonomous regions) including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shaanxi, and Ningxia, as well as 3 central enterprises including China Huaneng Group Co., Ltd., China Datang Group Co., Ltd., and State Power Investment Corporation from May 26th to 28th, 2025, and recently completed the on - site inspection stage. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month and back in the expansion range, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing prosperity [2].

Report Information - Report Title: "Rebar Industry Chain Daily Report 2025/6/30" [1] - Researcher: Cai Yuehui [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F0251444 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0013101 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the RB2510 contract rose and then fell. Macroscopically, China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China's interests to obtain so - called tariff exemptions. If this happens, China will resolutely counter and safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased, the capacity utilization rate reached 47.75%, and the operating rate of electric - arc furnace steel mills continued to decline. Terminal demand was average, with factory inventories increasing and social inventories decreasing, and the decline in total inventory narrowed. The apparent demand remained around 2.19 million tons. Raw material coal and coke prices declined at the end of the session, weakening cost support, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA adjusted from high levels, and the red column shrank. The operation suggestion is short - term trading within the day, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 2,997 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the trading volume of the RB main contract was 2,124,170 lots, down 18,643 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was 1,534 lots, down 31,792 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 18 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 18,221 tons, unchanged; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 126 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,231 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the basis of the RB main contract was 153 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 713 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the domestic iron ore port inventory was 139.3023 million tons, up 360,700 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 738,100 tons, down 73,100 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.2751 million tons, down 65,000 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 772,600 tons, up 80,000 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.1784 million tons, up 56,600 tons; the capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills for rebar was 47.75%, up 1.25 percentage points; the factory inventory of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.856 million tons, up 32,800 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.634 million tons, down 53,500 tons; the operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 86.55 million tons, up 53,000 tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 17.3 million tons, up 42,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 1.01 million tons, up 16,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.72, down 0.13; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 3.70%, down 0.30 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.70%, down 0.40 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was 5.60%, down 0.20 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.2502 billion square meters, down 4.704 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, down 53.48 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing was 412.64 million square meters, up 4.39 million square meters. In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment continued to improve [2] Industry News - In the five sub - indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, and supplier delivery time index were all above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employment index were below the critical point. On the 29th, the Ministry of Water Resources and the China Meteorological Administration jointly issued a red mountain flood disaster meteorological warning, predicting a high possibility of mountain floods in eastern Sichuan and western Chongqing from 20:00 on the 29th to 20:00 on the 30th. In addition, the Ministry of Water Resources launched a level - IV emergency response for flood prevention in Chongqing, Sichuan, and Gansu on the 29th [2]

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 2,986.00 | +5↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 2133943 | -7054↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | 18699 | +14380↑ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 8 | +1↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 37751 | 0.00 HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 116 | +4↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,130.00 | +10↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,210 | +10↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,180.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,200.00 ...

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/6/17 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：RB：螺纹钢；HC：热轧卷板 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 2,981.00 | -9↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 2140997 | -23735↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | 4319 | -6430↓ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 7 | +2↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 37751 | +2985↑ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 112 | -2↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,130.00 | 0.00 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,210 | 0.00 | | | 广州 HRB400E ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 2,974.00 | -7↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 2165234 | -31488↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -14883 | -14063↓ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 4 | +2↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 37755 | 0.00 HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 115 | +1↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,120.00 | 0.00 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,200 | 0.00 | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,210.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,200.00 | 0.00 | | | RB 主力合约基差 (元/吨) | 146.00 | +7↑ 杭州热 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 9, 2025, the RB2510 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. Macroscopically, Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 47.89%, with the reduction amplitude in the off - season expanding. Both the factory inventory and social inventory of rebar continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed down, with the total inventory decreasing by 10.57 tons. In addition, the steel export volume in May exceeded 10 million tons again. Overall, the apparent demand for rebar declined, but recent steel prices were more affected by macro factors. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is short - term trading within the day, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 2,981 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the position volume was 2,196,722 lots, down 19,727 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 820 lots, down 16,330 lots. The spread between the RB10 - 1 contract was 2 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 37,755 tons, down 2,412 tons. The spread between the HC2510 - RB2510 contract was 114 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the spot market, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 139 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - In the upstream market, the price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 726 yuan/wet ton, down 9 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,320 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,205 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,900 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 138.2669 million tons, down 398,900 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 881,900 tons, up 97,100 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.4595 million tons, down 89,300 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 674,500 tons, up 2,800 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.54%, down 0.35 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.63%, down 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - In the industry, the weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.1846 million tons, down 70,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar from sample steel mills was 47.89%, down 1.55 percentage points; the factory inventory of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.8486 million tons, down 16,000 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.8562 million tons, down 89,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 72.92%, down 1.04 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output was 86.02 million tons, down 6.82 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 18.61 million tons, up 1.31 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 10.097 million tons, up 157,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - In the downstream market, the national real estate prosperity index was 93.86, down 0.09; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 4.00%, down 0.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.30%, down 0.40 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was 5.80%, unchanged. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.20315 billion square meters, down 66.1 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 178.36 million square meters, down 48.39 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing was 417.03 million square meters, up 4.55 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to customs data on June 9, in May 2025, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, an increase of 116,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. From January to May, the cumulative export of steel was 48.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. In May, China imported 481,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9%. From January to May, the cumulative import of steel was 2.553 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. In May 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% year - on - year [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the RB2510 contract decreased in price with reduced positions. In terms of macro - aspects, the Ministry of Commerce responded to new US restrictions on China and aimed to maintain the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks. Regarding supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 47.89%. The inventory in mills and social inventory of rebar continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed, with the total inventory decreasing by 10.57 tons. Overall, high temperature and rain affected terminal demand, leading to a decline in the apparent demand for rebar. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were below the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is short - term intraday trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 2,959 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; the position volume was 2,257,013 lots, a decrease of 23,378 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 1,732 lots, a decrease of 23,829 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was 8 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 40,167 tons, unchanged; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 118 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 151 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 735 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 7 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,205 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 138.6658 million tons, a decrease of 1.2125 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 784,800 tons, an increase of 51,800 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.5488 million tons, a decrease of 60,200 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 674,500 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons. The blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills was 83.89%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.67%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 2.1846 million tons, a decrease of 70,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 47.89%, a decrease of 1.55 percentage points; the mill inventory of rebar was 1.8486 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.8562 million tons, a decrease of 89,700 tons. The operation rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 73.96%, a decrease of 1.04 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 86.02 million tons, a decrease of 6.82 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.861 million tons, an increase of 131,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 994,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.86, a decrease of 0.09; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 4.00%, a decrease of 0.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 10.30%, a decrease of 0.40 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was 5.80%, unchanged. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.20315 billion square meters, a decrease of 66.1 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area decreased by 48.39 million square meters; the unsold housing area was 41.703 million square meters, an increase of 455,000 square meters [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel on June 5, the actual output of rebar was 2.1846 million tons, a decrease of 70,500 tons; the mill inventory was 1.8486 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons; the social inventory was 3.8562 million tons, a decrease of 89,700 tons; the total inventory was 5.7048 million tons, a decrease of 105,700 tons; the apparent demand was 2.2903 million tons, a decrease of 196,500 tons. According to the survey of Centennial Building Network, on June 4, the mainstream cement enterprises in Guiyang, Guizhou, announced a price increase of 70 yuan/ton; from June 5, high - grade bulk cement in Shanghai and Jiaxing regions also increased in price. Recently, due to tight supply - demand in the cement market and cost support, cement prices in many places have started to rise [2]