Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report On Wednesday, the RB2601 contract decreased with increasing positions. Macroscopically, the central bank announced a 700 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on November 5 to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to increase, with a capacity utilization rate of 46.6%. Inventories have declined for three consecutive weeks, but market sentiment has recently weakened and trading volume has shrunk. Overall, the support from the macro and cost sides has weakened, and the mainstream positions continue to increase short positions. Rebar is weakly declining. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are moving downward. The operation suggestion is to be bearish with a focus on risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,024 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the trading volume was 2,031,781 lots, up 65,237 lots - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was -137,448 lots, down 24,396 lots; the spread between RB1 - 5 contracts was -70 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan - The daily warehouse receipt of RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 140,134 tons, down 2,708 tons; the spread between HC2601 - RB2601 contracts was 229 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,303 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan - The basis of the RB main contract was 196 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price difference between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 90 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, down 10 yuan; the price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Hebei (market price) was 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax-excluded) was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 145.3924 million tons, up 1.1859 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 374,400 tons, up 700 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2888 million tons, down 43,900 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.73%, down 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.59%, down 1.33 percentage points - The output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.1259 million tons, up 55,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 46.60%, up 1.21 percentage points - The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.7171 million tons, down 129,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.3081 million tons, down 66,700 tons - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons - The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 15.41 million tons, up 660,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate prosperity index was 92.78, down 0.27; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was -0.50%, down 1 percentage point - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate development investment was -13.90%, down 1 percentage point; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment was 1.10%, down 0.9 percentage point - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, down 54.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 453.99 million square meters, down 55.98 million square meters - The inventory of commercial housing for sale was 399.37 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - In late October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a 9.8% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; 19.18 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.744 million tons, a 5.8% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; and 21.94 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.995 million tons, a 0.9% increase in daily output compared to the previous period - The U.S. Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again on the 4th. This means that the current federal government "shutdown" that started on October 1st is about to break the record of 35 days from late 2018 to early 2019 and become the longest "shutdown" in U.S. history [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention The weekly output, in-plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/11/4 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,044.00 | -35↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1966544 | +47527↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -113052 | -19611↓ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -64 | +2↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 142842 | -1798↓ HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) | 221 | +5↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,250.00 | -20↓ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,333 | -21↓ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,310.00 | -20↓ 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,190.00 | 0.00 | | | RB 主力合约基差 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoint On Tuesday, the RB2601 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroscopically, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to study and formulate major issues of the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar remained low with a capacity utilization rate of 45.26%; inventory continued to decline while apparent demand increased. Overall, tariff disturbances affected market confidence, and the risk - aversion sentiment before the long holiday led to continued reduction of rebar positions. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were moving downward. The operation suggestion is to maintain a bearish stance [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,072.00 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] - RB main contract holding volume: 1,873,832 lots, down 52,807 lots [2] - RB contract top 20 net holding volume: - 132,445 lots, up 38,386 lots [2] - RB1 - 5 contract spread: - 56 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] - RB SHFE warehouse receipt daily report: 291,546 tons, up 15,608 tons [2] - HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 181 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,280.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight): 3,364 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,310.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,200.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - RB main contract basis: 208.00 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 70.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 778.00 yuan/wet ton, down 1.00 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel (tax - excluded): 2,250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,950.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan [2] - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 139.9735 million tons, up 1.9313 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 392,900 tons, down 29,200 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.6138 million tons, up 164,800 tons [2] - Tangshan billet inventory: 1.225 million tons, up 7,700 tons [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 84.47%, up 0.47 percentage points [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.88%, up 0.50 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill rebar output: 2.0646 million tons, up 100 tons [2] - Sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 45.26%, unchanged [2] - Sample steel mill rebar inventory: 1.6441 million tons, down 6,600 tons [2] - 35 - city rebar social inventory: 4.7189 million tons, down 133,200 tons [2] - Independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 65.63%, down 2.08 percentage points [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons [2] - Chinese rebar monthly output: 1.518 million tons, down 23,000 tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 901,000 tons, down 38,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - National Real Estate Climate Index: 93.05, down 0.28 [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: 0.50%, down 1.10 percentage points [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment: - 12.90%, down 0.90 percentage points [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment: 2.00%, down 1.20 percentage points [2] - Cumulative value of housing construction area: 6.43109 billion square meters, down 43.78 million square meters [2] - Cumulative value of new housing construction area: 398.01 million square meters, down 45.95 million square meters [2] - Commodity housing unsold area: 402.29 million square meters, up 3.07 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of September 30th, 20 cities introduced 25 property market relaxation policies, including Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, which is seen as a new round of policy optimization for the real estate market and may bring positive expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" [2] - The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a blue rainstorm warning on September 30th. There were no affected tailings ponds in the area with over 100 - mm rainfall, and 29 tailings ponds in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi were affected by 50 - 100mm rainfall [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The weekly output of rebar remains at a low level with a capacity utilization rate of 45.26%. Inventory continues to decline while apparent demand increases. Overall, tariff disturbances affect market sentiment. As the holiday approaches, spot trading is average and the short side dominates the mainstream positions in the futures market. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that both DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 axis with the green bar expanding. The operation suggestion is to maintain a bias towards a downward trend with a light position during the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price is 3,097.00 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; RB main contract holdings are 1,926,639 lots, down 49,906 lots; RB contract top 20 net positions are -170,831 lots, up 50,336 lots; RB1 - 5 contract spread is -58 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 275,938 tons, down 2,412 tons; HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 192 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,290.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Hangzhou (actual weight) is 3,374 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. RB main contract basis is 193.00 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil to rebar spot spread is 90.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 779.00 yuan/wet ton, down 4.00 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,970.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory is 139.9735 million tons, up 1.9313 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory is 392,900 tons, down 29,200 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The sample steel mill coke inventory is 6.6138 million tons, up 164,800 tons; the Tangshan billet inventory is 1.225 million tons, up 7,700 tons. The 247 - steel mill blast furnace operating rate is 84.47%, up 0.47 percentage points; the 247 - steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.88%, up 0.50 percentage points. The sample steel mill rebar output is 2.0646 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; the sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate is 45.26%, unchanged. The sample steel mill rebar inventory is 1.6441 million tons, down 6,600 tons; the 35 - city rebar social inventory is 4.7189 million tons, down 133,200 tons. The independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate is 65.63%, down 2.08 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output is 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons; the Chinese rebar monthly output is 15.18 million tons, down 230,000 tons; the steel net export volume is 9.01 million tons, down 380,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate prosperity index is 93.05, down 0.28; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment is 0.50%, down 1.10 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment is - 12.90%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 2.00%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.43109 billion square meters, down 43.78 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 398.01 million square meters, down 45.95 million square meters; the commercial housing unsold area is 402.29 million square meters, up 3.07 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to exert efforts and implement macro - policies in a timely manner. It will also strengthen economic monitoring, forecasting, and early warning, and make policy pre - research and reserves. Last week, the scale of steel mill maintenance in the construction steel industry remained at a peak. There were 14 production lines under maintenance (1 less than last week) and 4 production lines restarted (6 less than last week) in 12 provinces. The production affected by production line maintenance is estimated to be 2.933 million tons this week. On Monday, the RB2601 contract decreased with reduced positions. Multiple new first - tier cities are researching new real estate market policies to stimulate the demand for improved housing [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,109.00 | -14↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1867674 | +88845↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -201324 | +14583↑ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -47 | 0.00 | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 242840 | +8223↑ HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) | 233 | +7↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,250.00 | -10↓ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,333 | -10↓ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,280.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,210.00 | -10↓ | | | RB 主力合约基差 (元/吨) | 141.00 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the RB2601 contract decreased with increasing positions. In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing market demand. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.35%. Market sentiment was weak, and downstream buyers mainly purchased on - demand, while inventory continued to rise. Overall, the steel market was mixed, with significant technical pressure, and the mainstream positions increased short positions, leading to weak futures prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were operating at low levels. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,115.00 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the position volume was 1,633,714 lots, up 203,931 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 211,528 lots, down 27,137 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 76 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 211,538 tons, up 12,041 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 188 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,270.00 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,354 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,220.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 155.00 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 120.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 760.00 yuan/wet ton, down 18.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,950.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 137.63 million tons, down 821,800 tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 397,100 tons, up 3,300 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.1012 million tons, up 4,300 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.18%, down 0.16 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.00%, down 0.27 percentage points. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.2836 million tons, up 122,700 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.2056 million tons, up 59,100 tons. The capacity utilization rate of rebar from sample steel mills was 48.35%, up 1.30 percentage points. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.6962 million tons, down 49,100 tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.5377 million tons, up 212,600 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 70.83%, unchanged. The domestic crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, down 353,000 tons. The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1.658 million tons, up 140,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 939,000 tons, up 18,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 93.34, down 0.25. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.60%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 12.00%, down 0.80 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 3.20%, down 1.40 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.38731 billion square meters, down 5.41 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, down 4.842 million square meters. The unsold housing area was 40.536 million square meters, up 285,000 square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - Since August, 13 domestic steel mills have released maintenance information. Shougang Jingtang plans to shut down a 5500m³ blast furnace from August 31 to September 3, about 48,000 tons of hot metal production will be affected. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, down 0.16 percentage points from the previous week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.02%, down 0.23 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4013 million tons, down 6,200 tons from the previous week [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract continued to decline. Macroscopically, Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy implementation efficiency, responding to market concerns, and stabilizing market expectations while boosting effective investment. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly. High - temperature and rainy weather affected demand, inventory continued to increase, and apparent demand declined. Overall, rebar demand was weak in the off - season, and tariff disturbances affected market sentiment again, with low downstream purchasing enthusiasm and weak overall transactions. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were moving downward. The operation suggestion was to be bearish in a volatile market, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price was 3,126.00 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; the position was 1,608,694 lots, down 1,199 lots - RB contract's top 20 net position was - 108,548 lots, up 12,257 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 82 yuan/ton, unchanged - RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 135,449 tons, up 15,137 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 290 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,320.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,405 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,280.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan - The RB main contract basis was 194.00 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread was 170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 764.00 yuan/wet ton, down 12.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,535.00 yuan/ton, unchanged - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 3,050.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan - The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,819.27 million tons, up 107.00 million tons; the sample coking plant's coke inventory was 39.05 million tons, down 5.31 million tons - The sample steel mill's coke inventory was 609.78 million tons, down 9.52 million tons; the Tangshan billet inventory was 112.52 million tons, down 2.84 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.57%, down 0.20%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, up 0.17% - The sample steel mill's rebar output was 220.45 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the sample steel mill's rebar capacity utilization rate was 48.33%, down 0.16% - The sample steel mill's rebar inventory was 172.26 million tons, up 4.06 million tons; the 35 - city rebar social inventory was 414.93 million tons, up 26.45 million tons - The independent electric arc furnace steel mill's operating rate was 71.88%, unchanged; the domestic crude steel output was 7,966 million tons, down 353 million tons - China's rebar monthly output was 1,658 million tons, up 140 million tons; the steel net export volume was 939.00 million tons, up 18.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.34, down 0.25; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 1.60%, down 1.20% - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 12.00%, down 0.80%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 3.20%, down 1.40% - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 638,731 million square meters, down 5,410 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 35,206 million square meters, down 4,842 million square meters - The commercial housing unsold area was 40,536.00 million square meters, up 285.00 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - In July 2025, China's excavator output was 24,732 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. From January to July 2025, China's excavator output was 205,299 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% - In July 2025, China's rebar output was 1,518.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 11,338.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated widely. The global manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month but remaining above 50% for three consecutive months. The weekly output of rebar increased significantly this period, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.49%. Inventories continued to rise, and apparent demand turned from decline to increase. Overall, steel mills have good profits, production enthusiasm has increased, the macro - expectation is positive, and with the strong operation of coking coal, there is cost - side support. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,231.00 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the position volume was 1,628,167 lots, down 24,402 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 59,090 lots, up 34,080 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 73 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The RB warehouse receipt at the SHFE was 93,491 tons, up 4,235 tons. The HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 209 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,487 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 169.00 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 100.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 773.00 yuan/wet ton, down 1.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,535.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 3,090.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, down 0.56 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.22%, up 4.34 percentage points. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.1536 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.2118 million tons, up 101,200 tons. The capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills for rebar was 48.49%, up 2.22 percentage points. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.682 million tons, up 60,500 tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.8848 million tons, up 43,400 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, up 1.04 percentage points. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons. The net export volume of steel products was 938,400 tons, up 17,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters. The inventory of commercial housing for sale was 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. Industry News - According to customs data on August 7, in July 2025, China's steel exports were 9.836 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. In July, China's steel imports were 452,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, the cumulative steel imports were 3.476 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7%. The actual rebar output this period was 2.2118 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101,200 tons; the steel mill inventory was 1.682 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,500 tons; the social inventory was 3.8848 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,400 tons; the total inventory was 5.5668 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 103,900 tons; the apparent demand was 2.1079 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 73,800 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core View On Wednesday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The China Iron and Steel Association's meeting focused on "controlling production capacity, countering involution, strengthening collaboration, and promoting transformation." In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly, with a low capacity utilization rate of 46.27%. The apparent demand declined, and inventory increased. Overall, the steel market is in the off - season with falling demand, but positive macro - expectations and rising coal and coke prices provide cost support. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows a low - level rebound. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,234 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the position was 1,652,569 lots, down 56,263 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 93,170 lots, up 89 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 75 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 89,256 tons, up 893 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 217 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,390 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,477 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,400 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 156 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 774 yuan/wet ton, down 4 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory was 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons; the Tangshan billet inventory was 1.1102 million tons, up 41,000 tons. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, down 0.56 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The sample steel mill rebar output was 2.1106 million tons, down 9,000 tons; the rebar capacity utilization rate was 46.27%, down 0.20 percentage points; the sample steel mill rebar inventory was 1.6215 million tons, down 35,200 tons; the 35 - city rebar social inventory was 3.8414 million tons, up 111,700 tons. The independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate was 69.79%, up 1.04 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons; the Chinese rebar monthly output was 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons; the steel net export volume was 921,000 tons, down 89,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters; the commercial housing inventory was 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2] Industry News - The new "C50 Wind Direction Index" shows that the market expects government bonds to support an increase in new social financing in July, with the substitution effect potentially causing the new loan scale to turn negative, but the growth rate remains high. In late July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% daily decline; 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.856 million tons, a 4.5% daily decline; and 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons, a 0.5% daily increase [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Monday, the RB2510 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroscopically, Politburo member and Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th. Previously, steel prices rose due to positive expectations, but after the double - coke limit - down, market optimism faded and spot trading weakened. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows DIFF and DEA adjusting downward with an enlarged green bar. The operation strategy is to be bearish in a volatile market, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan; the position volume is 1,935,881 lots, down 62,771 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 5,938 lots, down 14,774 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread is - 41 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 84,440 tons, down 3,587 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 149 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,430 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) is 3,518 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [2]. - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,470 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,340 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The basis of the RB main contract is 182 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the spot spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 50 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 774 yuan/wet ton, down 5 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,315 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 3,090 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 137.9038 million tons, up 51,700 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 498,000 tons, down 56,200 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.4 million tons, up 9,100 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.0692 million tons, up 33,000 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.78%, down 0.14 percentage points [2]. - The output of rebar at sample steel mills is 2.1196 million tons, up 29,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills is 46.47%, up 0.64 percentage points [2]. - The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.6567 million tons, down 74,300 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 3.7297 million tons, up 28,100 tons [2]. - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 68.75%, up 5.21 percentage points; the monthly output of crude steel in China is 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of Chinese rebar is 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 9.21 million tons, down 890,000 tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The national real - estate climate index is 93.60, down 0.11; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion is - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters [2]. - The unsold area of commercial housing is 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. 3.6行业消息 - On July 27th, coke prices in markets such as Weifang, Binzhou, Dezhou, Jining, Zaozhuang, Heze, Rizhao, Tai'an, and Linyi are planned to increase. The price of tamping wet - quenched coke will increase by 50 yuan/ton, the price of tamping dry - quenched coke will increase by 55 yuan/ton, and the price of top - charged coke will increase by 75 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on July 28th [2]. - According to Mysteel research, last week, steel mill overhauls decreased compared with the previous week, and the scale of resumption of production expanded. This week's output may increase, and it is estimated that the output affected by production line overhauls this week is 133,800 tons [2].