本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,126.00 | -29↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1608694 | -1199↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -108548 | +12257↑ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -82 | 0.00 | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 135449 | +15137↑ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 290 | +26↑ | | 现货市场 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated widely. The global manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month but remaining above 50% for three consecutive months. The weekly output of rebar increased significantly this period, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.49%. Inventories continued to rise, and apparent demand turned from decline to increase. Overall, steel mills have good profits, production enthusiasm has increased, the macro - expectation is positive, and with the strong operation of coking coal, there is cost - side support. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,231.00 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the position volume was 1,628,167 lots, down 24,402 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 59,090 lots, up 34,080 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 73 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The RB warehouse receipt at the SHFE was 93,491 tons, up 4,235 tons. The HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 209 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,487 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 169.00 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 100.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 773.00 yuan/wet ton, down 1.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,535.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 3,090.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, down 0.56 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.22%, up 4.34 percentage points. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.1536 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.2118 million tons, up 101,200 tons. The capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills for rebar was 48.49%, up 2.22 percentage points. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.682 million tons, up 60,500 tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.8848 million tons, up 43,400 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, up 1.04 percentage points. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons. The net export volume of steel products was 938,400 tons, up 17,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters. The inventory of commercial housing for sale was 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. Industry News - According to customs data on August 7, in July 2025, China's steel exports were 9.836 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. In July, China's steel imports were 452,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, the cumulative steel imports were 3.476 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7%. The actual rebar output this period was 2.2118 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101,200 tons; the steel mill inventory was 1.682 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,500 tons; the social inventory was 3.8848 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,400 tons; the total inventory was 5.5668 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 103,900 tons; the apparent demand was 2.1079 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 73,800 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core View On Wednesday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The China Iron and Steel Association's meeting focused on "controlling production capacity, countering involution, strengthening collaboration, and promoting transformation." In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly, with a low capacity utilization rate of 46.27%. The apparent demand declined, and inventory increased. Overall, the steel market is in the off - season with falling demand, but positive macro - expectations and rising coal and coke prices provide cost support. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows a low - level rebound. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,234 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the position was 1,652,569 lots, down 56,263 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 93,170 lots, up 89 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 75 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 89,256 tons, up 893 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 217 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,390 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,477 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,400 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 156 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 774 yuan/wet ton, down 4 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory was 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons; the Tangshan billet inventory was 1.1102 million tons, up 41,000 tons. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, down 0.56 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The sample steel mill rebar output was 2.1106 million tons, down 9,000 tons; the rebar capacity utilization rate was 46.27%, down 0.20 percentage points; the sample steel mill rebar inventory was 1.6215 million tons, down 35,200 tons; the 35 - city rebar social inventory was 3.8414 million tons, up 111,700 tons. The independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate was 69.79%, up 1.04 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons; the Chinese rebar monthly output was 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons; the steel net export volume was 921,000 tons, down 89,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters; the commercial housing inventory was 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2] Industry News - The new "C50 Wind Direction Index" shows that the market expects government bonds to support an increase in new social financing in July, with the substitution effect potentially causing the new loan scale to turn negative, but the growth rate remains high. In late July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% daily decline; 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.856 million tons, a 4.5% daily decline; and 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons, a 0.5% daily increase [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Monday, the RB2510 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroscopically, Politburo member and Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th. Previously, steel prices rose due to positive expectations, but after the double - coke limit - down, market optimism faded and spot trading weakened. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows DIFF and DEA adjusting downward with an enlarged green bar. The operation strategy is to be bearish in a volatile market, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan; the position volume is 1,935,881 lots, down 62,771 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 5,938 lots, down 14,774 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread is - 41 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 84,440 tons, down 3,587 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 149 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,430 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) is 3,518 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [2]. - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,470 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,340 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The basis of the RB main contract is 182 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the spot spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 50 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 774 yuan/wet ton, down 5 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,315 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 3,090 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 137.9038 million tons, up 51,700 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 498,000 tons, down 56,200 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.4 million tons, up 9,100 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.0692 million tons, up 33,000 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.78%, down 0.14 percentage points [2]. - The output of rebar at sample steel mills is 2.1196 million tons, up 29,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills is 46.47%, up 0.64 percentage points [2]. - The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.6567 million tons, down 74,300 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 3.7297 million tons, up 28,100 tons [2]. - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 68.75%, up 5.21 percentage points; the monthly output of crude steel in China is 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of Chinese rebar is 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 9.21 million tons, down 890,000 tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The national real - estate climate index is 93.60, down 0.11; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion is - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters [2]. - The unsold area of commercial housing is 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. 3.6行业消息 - On July 27th, coke prices in markets such as Weifang, Binzhou, Dezhou, Jining, Zaozhuang, Heze, Rizhao, Tai'an, and Linyi are planned to increase. The price of tamping wet - quenched coke will increase by 50 yuan/ton, the price of tamping dry - quenched coke will increase by 55 yuan/ton, and the price of top - charged coke will increase by 75 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on July 28th [2]. - According to Mysteel research, last week, steel mill overhauls decreased compared with the previous week, and the scale of resumption of production expanded. This week's output may increase, and it is estimated that the output affected by production line overhauls this week is 133,800 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract increased in price with reduced positions. Macroscopically, steel enterprises in central and western regions strengthen self - discipline in production control, meeting the requirements of breaking the "involution" put forward by the central government and enhancing industry self - discipline. There are positive expectations for supply, and combined with the strong upward movement of furnace materials, the cost side supports the relatively strong operation of rebar futures prices. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continues to decline, and the capacity utilization rate drops to 45.83%; the apparent demand for rebar declines, and the total inventory ends its continuous decline. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating at a high level. The operation suggestion is to conduct bullish trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,307.00 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan; the position volume of the RB main contract is 2,024,507 lots, down 71,405 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 24,665 lots, down 19,656 lots; the spread between the RB10 - 1 contract is - 60 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 86,534 tons, unchanged. The spread between the HC2510 - RB2510 contract is 170 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) is 3,420.00 yuan, up 50 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight, yuan/ton) is 3,508 yuan, up 51 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) is 3,450.00 yuan, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) is 3,330.00 yuan, up 50 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract is 113.00 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the spot spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 30.00 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 783.00 yuan/wet ton, down 6.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei (market price; yuan/ton) is 1,265.00 yuan, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (ex - tax, yuan/ton) is 2,240.00 yuan, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei is 3,120.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 137.8521 million tons, up 193,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 554,200 tons, down 43,500 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.3909 million tons, up 11,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.0362 million tons, up 60,900 tons. The blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills is 83.48%, up 0.35 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.92%, up 1.05 percentage points [2] 3.4产业情况 - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills is 2.0906 million tons, down 76,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills is 45.83%, down 1.66 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.731 million tons, down 77,800 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 3.7016 million tons, up 106,700 tons. The operation rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 63.54%, up 3.12 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel is 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars is 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 921,000 tons, down 89,000 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The national real estate climate index is 93.60, down 0.11. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment completion is 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion is - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing is 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2] 3.6行业消息 - In June, the total export volume of domestic steel billets was 1.1757 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.33% and a year - on - year increase of 280.19%. From January to June, the total export volume of domestic steel billets was 5.8922 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 300.31%. On the morning of July 19, the groundbreaking ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held in Nyingchi City, Tibet Autonomous Region. The project will build 5 cascade hydropower stations with a total investment of about 12 trillion yuan [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Monday, the RB2510 contract increased in price with higher trading volume. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that a stable growth work plan for ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals is about to be introduced. The weekly output of rebar continued to decline, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 45.83%. During the consumption off - season, terminal demand was average, social inventory increased significantly, and the total inventory ended its consecutive decline. Overall, the apparent demand for construction steel decreased during the off - season, but positive policy expectations in the macro - aspect, combined with rising furnace materials, supported the upward movement of rebar futures prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were rising. The operation strategy is to conduct bullish trading while paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan; the trading volume was 2,095,912 lots, up 20,122 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 5,009 lots, down 3,976 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 53 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 86,534 tons, down 897 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 170 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,370 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,456 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,260 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 146 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 70 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 789 yuan/wet ton, up 12 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 137.8521 million tons, up 193,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 554,200 tons, down 43,500 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.3909 million tons, up 11,200 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, up 0.35 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.92%, up 1.05 percentage points; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.0362 million tons, up 60,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.0906 million tons, down 76,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 45.83%, down 1.66 percentage points; the inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.731 million tons, down 77,800 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.7016 million tons, up 106,700 tons; the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 63.54%, up 3.12 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar was 16.88 million tons, up 300,000 tons; the monthly net export volume of steel was 9.21 million tons, down 890,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment was 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale was 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. Industry News - On July 21, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%. On July 19, the groundbreaking ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated weakly. In the macro - aspect, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% in the first half of the year, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.49%; the factory inventory increased and the social inventory decreased, and the total inventory of 5.4037 million tons declined slightly again, and the apparent demand decreased by 33,700 tons. Overall, the sluggish real - estate data affected market confidence, the speculative demand for rebar was not active, and the trading performance was mediocre. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA continued to adjust downward. The operation strategy is to be bearish on fluctuations, and pay attention to the support around 3090 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,106 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the position volume was 2,137,057 lots, down 16,795 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 15,823 lots, down 7,662 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 44 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 96,689 tons, unchanged; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 147 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; (actual weight) was 3,344 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 154 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 756 yuan/wet ton, up 4 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 137.6589 million tons, down 1.1251 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 597,700 tons, down 19,400 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3797 million tons, up 4,200 tons; the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, up 0.42 percentage points; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 97.53%, up 10.19 percentage points; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 898,700 tons, down 4,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 2.1666 million tons, down 44,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar of sample steel mills was 47.49%, down 0.98 percentage points; the factory inventory of rebar of sample steel mills was 1.8088 million tons, up 4,100 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.5949 million tons, down 52,500 tons; the operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 60.42%, down 3.12 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, down 3.37 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.73 million tons, up 42,000 tons; the net export volume of steel products was 9.208 million tons, down 892,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate prosperity index was 93.60, down 0.11; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.01 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, down 71.8 million square meters; the unsold housing area was 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 16, many places such as Henan, Shaanxi, Hunan, Hubei, and Sichuan issued red high - temperature warnings, and the local temperature in some areas of Wuhan, Jingmen, and Huanggang in Hubei could reach over 41°C. From January to June, the national real - estate development investment was 466.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The housing construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%. The new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, a decrease of 20.0%. The housing completion area was 225.67 million square meters, a decrease of 14.8% [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, factory inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract faced pressure and pulled back. The real - estate market's downturn drags down steel prices, but the exit of backward production capacity supports the steel market. The weekly output of rebar decreased, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.49%. The total inventory slightly declined, and the apparent demand dropped by 3.37 tons. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows a downward adjustment. It is recommended to trade in the range of 3140 - 3090 for the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,114.00 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; position: 2,153,852 lots, up 31,511 lots; top 20 net positions: - 8,161 lots, down 31,162 lots; RB10 - 1 contract spread: - 46 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; RB SHFE warehouse receipt: 96,689 tons, up 8,179 tons; HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 145 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,260.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; (actual weight): 3,344 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,190.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; RB main contract basis: 146.00 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 50.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 752.00 yuan/wet ton, down 3.00 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,265.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 2,950.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; domestic iron ore port inventory: 137.6589 million tons, down 1.1251 million tons; sample coking plant coke inventory: 597,700 tons, down 19,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.3797 million tons, up 4,200 tons; Tangshan billet inventory: 975,300 tons, up 101,900 tons; 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.13%, down 0.31%; 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 89.87%, down 0.40%; sample steel mill rebar output: 2.1666 million tons, down 44,200 tons; sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 47.49%, down 0.98%; sample steel mill rebar inventory: 1.8088 million tons, up 4,100 tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory: 3.5949 million tons, down 52,500 tons; independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 60.42%, down 3.12%; domestic crude steel output: 83.18 million tons, down 3.37 million tons; Chinese rebar monthly output: 1.73 million tons, up 42,000 tons; steel net export volume: 9.208 million tons, down 892,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - National Real Estate Climate Index: 93.60, down 0.11; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: 2.80%, down 0.90%; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment: - 11.20%, down 0.50%; cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment: 4.60%, down 1.00%; cumulative value of housing construction area: 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.01 million square meters; cumulative value of new housing construction area: 303.64 million square meters, down 71.8 million square meters; commercial housing unsold area: 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; pig iron output was 71.91 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%; steel output was 127.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. From January to June, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%; pig iron output was 434.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%; steel output was 734.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. - From January to June, the national real - estate development investment was 4.6658 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The cumulative housing construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%. The new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, a decrease of 20.0%. The housing completion area was 225.67 million square meters, a decrease of 14.8% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Thursday, the RB2510 contract continued to rebound. The National Development and Reform Commission recently allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 billion yuan "two major" construction project list for this year has been fully released. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to increase, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.47%; the factory inventory decreased while the social inventory increased, with a total inventory decrease of 37,900 tons and an apparent demand of 2.2487 million tons, an increase of 49,600 tons. Overall, rebar performed better than expected, with increased output, decreased inventory, and improved apparent demand. Meanwhile, the "anti-involution" policy continued to boost steel prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were running above the 0 axis. The operation strategy is to be bullish on fluctuations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,076 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the position volume was 2,237,249 lots, up 10,870 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was 53,683 lots, up 21,682 lots; the spread between the RB10 - 1 contract was -14 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 27,073 tons, up 1,803 tons; the spread between the HC2510 - RB2510 contract was 132 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price (actual weight) was 3,282 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the RB main contract was 124 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the spot spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 60 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 706 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,930 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - The domestic iron ore port inventory was 139.3023 million tons, up 360,700 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 738,100 tons, down 73,100 tons [2]. - The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.2751 million tons, down 65,000 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 873,400 tons, up 100,800 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.2108 million tons, up 32,400 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar from sample steel mills was 48.47%, up 0.72 percentage points [2]. - The factory inventory of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.8047 million tons, down 51,300 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.6474 million tons, up 13,400 tons [2]. - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged; the domestic crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, up 530,000 tons [2]. - China's monthly rebar output was 17.3 million tons, up 420,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 10.1 million tons, up 160,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 93.72, down 0.13; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment completion was 3.70%, down 0.30 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.70%, down 0.40 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 5.60%, down 0.20 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.2502 billion square meters, down 4.704 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, down 53.48 million square meters [2]. - The unsold area of commercial housing was 412.64 million square meters, up 4.39 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnamese exports to the US will be subject to a 20% tariff, and any transshipment goods will be subject to a 40% tariff. Vietnam has agreed to cancel all taxes on imported US goods [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission recently allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 billion yuan "two major" construction project list for this year has been fully released [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract first declined and then rebounded. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month and back in the expansion range. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased, the capacity utilization rate was 47.75%, and the operating rate of electric arc furnace steel mills continued to decline; the factory inventory increased while the social inventory decreased, the decline of the total inventory narrowed, and the apparent demand remained around 2.19 million tons. The raw material coal and coke prices dropped, weakening the cost support, and the market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA have returned above the 0-axis. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,003.00 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the position volume was down 48,103 hands. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was 3,894 hands, up 2,360 hands. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 13 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 24,614 tons, up 6,393 tons. The HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 133 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,160.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,241 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) and Tianjin (theoretical weight) remained unchanged at 3,160.00 yuan/ton. The basis of the RB main contract was 157.00 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 50.00 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 706.00 yuan/wet ton, down 7.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,900.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 13,930.23 million tons, up 36.07 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 73.81 million tons, down 7.31 million tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 627.51 million tons, down 6.50 million tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 77.26 million tons, up 8.00 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 217.84 million tons, up 5.66 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills for rebar was 47.75%, up 1.25 percentage points. The factory inventory of sample steel mills for rebar was 185.60 million tons, up 3.28 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 363.40 million tons, down 5.35 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged. The domestic crude steel output was 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1,730 million tons, up 42 million tons. The net export volume of steel was 1,010.00 million tons, up 16.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Housing Prosperity Index was 93.72, down 0.13. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 3.70%, down 0.30 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.70%, down 0.40 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 5.60%, down 0.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 625,020 million square meters, down 4,704 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 23,184 million square meters, down 5,348 million square meters. The inventory of commercial housing for sale was 41,264.00 million square meters, up 439.00 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The third round and fourth batch of 8 central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams were stationed in 5 provinces (autonomous regions) including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shaanxi, and Ningxia, as well as 3 central enterprises including China Huaneng Group Co., Ltd., China Datang Group Co., Ltd., and State Power Investment Corporation from May 26th to 28th, 2025, and recently completed the on - site inspection stage. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month and back in the expansion range, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing prosperity [2].