Group 1 - The German government cabinet has approved the draft budget for 2025 and the budget framework for 2026, significantly increasing defense spending [1] - The investment amount for 2025 is set to reach €115.7 billion, and approximately €123.6 billion for 2026, a substantial increase from €74.5 billion in 2024 [1] - The Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Christian Lindner, stated that Germany will maintain an annual investment of around €120 billion until 2029 [1] Group 2 - The mid-term financial plan included in the 2025 budget draft indicates that defense spending will account for 3.5% of GDP by 2029 [1] - The defense budget for 2025 is approximately €95 billion, projected to rise to €162 billion by 2029 [1]

Group 1 - The German government cabinet approved the 2025 budget draft and the 2026 budget framework, focusing on increasing investments to promote economic growth [1] - The investment amount for Germany is set to increase to €115.7 billion in 2025 and approximately €123.6 billion in 2026, significantly higher than the €74.5 billion investment in 2024 [1] - The German Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister, Christian Lindner, stated that Germany will maintain an annual investment of around €120 billion until 2029 [1] Group 2 - The budget draft includes a medium-term financial plan extending to 2029, with defense spending projected to reach 3.5% of GDP by that year [1] - Defense spending is estimated to be around €95 billion in 2025, increasing to €162 billion by 2029 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Senate Finance Committee is scheduled to hold a budget hearing for the fiscal year 2026 on June 12 [1] Group 1 - The hearing will focus on the budgetary allocations and financial planning for the upcoming fiscal year [1]

Group 1 - The UK Prime Minister Starmer announced that the government will consider the winter fuel threshold issue in the upcoming fiscal budget [1]

Core Insights - The Governor of the Qatar Central Bank indicated that the decline in global energy prices may impact Qatar's fiscal budget and current account [1] Group 1 - The potential impact of falling global energy prices on Qatar's financial stability is highlighted [1]

Group 1 - The White House proposed a budget of $1.7 trillion for the fiscal year 2026, representing a 7.6% decrease from the previous year [1] - The proposed budget will include the lowest non-defense spending since 2000 [1]

Group 1: Hot Topics - The article discusses the potential economic scenarios for the U.S., questioning whether it will face "stagflation" or recession [7][22] - The recent "late spring cold" phenomenon has had a limited impact on agricultural output and prices, with controllable effects on investment and retail sales [5][4] Group 2: In-depth Research - The article highlights that policy measures aimed at alleviating supply bottlenecks are underestimated by the market, focusing on "consumption-based infrastructure" and breaking consumption supply constraints [8] - A deep analysis of the 2025 fiscal budget is presented, emphasizing its role in addressing economic cycle bottlenecks [8] Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The article notes that the "Spring Festival adjustment" is not the main reason for the export slowdown; rather, the end of the "export rush" is crucial [9] - Inflation readings have significantly declined due to the Spring Festival misalignment, with actual levels still remaining weak after adjustments [10] - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI fell in February, and the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points [11] - Domestic construction activity has seen a decline, indicating a slowdown in the construction industry [12][13] - The central government has reserved ample fiscal space for future policies [14]

联系人： 贾东旭 摘要 2025年财政预算正式发布，新预算如何破解经济循环堵点，机制上有哪些创新突破，重点投向领域呈现 何种新布局？本文分析，可供参考。 经济运行中的梗阻：国内需求疲软、货币传导阻滞、财政收支约束。 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 外需依赖加剧下的内需"失衡"，2024年内需对GDP增长的贡献率下降至1997年以来新低。 结构性矛盾突 出表现为：2024年净出口对GDP增长贡献率达30.3%，而最终消费对GDP增长的贡献率仅有44.5%，为 2007年以来最低（剔除2020年特殊值）。 货币政策传导机制中的"梗阻"在房地产领域集中显现，地产销售对利率"脱敏"。 房地产相关贷款呈现疫 前高增（2015-2019年新增25.7万亿）、疫中降速（2020-2022年新增8.4万亿）、疫后收缩（2023-2024年 净减少3600亿）三阶段特征。2023-2024年房贷利率与商品房销售持续脱钩，显示利率传导机制不畅。 财政收入下降对融资扩张的"抵消效应"，导致财政支出增速已连续四年低于名义GDP增速。 财政收入面 临双重压力，首要压力来自土地财政收缩（20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The national economic development plan emphasizes balancing the cultivation of emerging industries and the adjustment of supply-demand relationships, with more deployments aimed at resolving structural contradictions in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Development and Structural Adjustment - The report highlights the need to improve supply-demand relationships to keep the overall price level within a reasonable range, addressing structural contradictions in industries such as petrochemicals, steel, photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries [2]. - New productivity cultivation focuses on cutting-edge industries like low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, biomanufacturing, quantum technology, future energy, embodied intelligence, and 6G, while optimizing the structure of established industries like new energy and semiconductors [2]. Group 2: Domestic Demand Expansion Policies - The focus of domestic demand expansion policies remains on infrastructure, manufacturing investment, and consumption, with increased funding for trade-in programs from 150 billion to 300 billion yuan to promote durable goods consumption [3]. - Investment in manufacturing is set to increase from 150 billion to 700 billion yuan, while special bond issuance is expected to rise from 3.9 trillion to 4.4 trillion yuan, with a significant portion directed towards real estate [3]. Group 3: Fiscal Budget Report Insights - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate is expected to increase significantly this year, benefiting from the second set of accounts, with a projected growth of 9.3% compared to 2024 [4]. - The shift of consumption tax collection to local governments aims to alleviate the imbalance in local revenue and expenditure, while new tax systems for emerging industries are expected to balance tax burdens between new and traditional sectors [4]. Group 4: Trade and External Factors - The impact of U.S. tariffs and reduced overseas restocking is beginning to affect exports, particularly in the semiconductor supply chain, with labor-intensive product exports experiencing a notable decline [5]. - The upcoming U.S. tariffs and the results of the "America First Trade Policy" memorandum are anticipated to further influence China-U.S. trade relations [5].