2025年经济增长高于预期主要是由于在预期关税上调之前出口增加，同时第三季度持续增长也表明欧洲 经济整体具有韧性。欧盟和欧元区的经济增长主要由私人消费和投资驱动。未来两年全球经济环境预计 仍将充满挑战，但稳健的劳动力市场、不断提升的购买力和有利的融资环境将继续推动经济温和增长。 通胀将会趋于稳定。欧元区2025年通胀率将降至2.1%，之后将徘徊在2.0%左右。2026年将降至1.9%， 2027年将降至2.0%。通胀放缓主要是由于服务和食品价格涨幅下降所致。欧盟公共赤字预计将从2024 年占GDP的3.1%上升至2027年的3.4%，部分原因是同期国防开支占GDP的比例从1.5%上升至2%。欧盟 公共债务预计将在2024年至2027年间从占GDP的84.5%上升至85%。 欧盟委员会预测，欧盟今年GDP将增长1.4%，2026年保持同样增幅，2027年增长1.5%。委员会同时预 测，欧元区2025年经济增长率将达到1.3%，2026年为1.2%，2027年为1.4%。 斯通社11月17日布鲁塞尔报道，欧盟委员会今日将欧盟2025年国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期从1.1% 上调至1.4%，并将2026年预期从1 ...

Economic Outlook - France's economic growth expectations have slightly improved but remain weak overall, influenced by high domestic debt, political instability, and external geopolitical threats [1][2] - The French central bank forecasts a growth of 0.7% in 2025, up from a previous estimate of 0.6%, but has lowered growth expectations for 2026 and 2027 to 0.9% and 1.1% respectively [1][2] Structural Challenges - The long-term weak performance of the French economy is attributed to structural challenges rather than cyclical downturns, with growth rates hovering between 0.6% and 0.8% this year [2][3] - The political crisis has led to a loss of GDP by 0.1% and 0.3% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, totaling a loss of €12 billion [3] Political Instability - The resignation of former Prime Minister Borne and the appointment of a new Prime Minister has raised concerns about ongoing political instability, which is eroding investor confidence and delaying necessary reforms [2][4] - The political deadlock is expected to persist, especially with the upcoming presidential elections in 2027, limiting fiscal consolidation efforts [4] Debt Burden - France's sovereign credit rating has been downgraded from "AA-" to "A+" due to ongoing political turmoil and unresolved budget issues, with debt projected to rise to 121% of GDP by 2027 [4] - Economists warn that without effective measures, debt could reach 128% of GDP by 2030, posing a risk of a systemic crisis similar to Greece in 2010 [4] External Factors - The unilateral tariff wars initiated by the U.S. have exacerbated France's economic vulnerabilities, contributing to a decline in business investment and consumer confidence [5][6] - France's productivity is lagging behind the Eurozone average, with rising labor costs further impacting competitiveness [6] Need for Strategic Vision - French economists emphasize the necessity for a long-term strategic vision to address current economic challenges, aiming to restore productivity and innovation [6]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports an improving trend in Spain's public debt and public deficit, projecting that by 2030, public debt will decrease to 93% of GDP and public deficit will drop to around 2% of GDP [1] - The IMF has raised its economic growth forecast for Spain to 2.5% for 2025 [1]