Core Viewpoint - The rise of instant retail in the liquor industry is being driven by e-commerce platforms, leading to significant changes in consumer purchasing behavior and traditional liquor distribution models [1][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The instant retail market for liquor has seen a 65% year-on-year growth in transaction volume in the first half of the year, indicating a shift towards immediate consumption [1]. - E-commerce platforms have significantly impacted liquor pricing, with some products, like ordinary Wuliangye, dropping below 800 yuan per bottle during promotional events [3]. - Instant retail penetration in the liquor market is currently around 1%, with a market size of nearly 200 billion yuan, expected to reach 6% penetration and over 1 trillion yuan by 2027 [9]. Group 2: Traditional Liquor Distribution Challenges - Traditional liquor distributors like 1919 and Jiu Bian Li have struggled to make a significant impact in instant retail, facing declining performance and limited user engagement [8]. - Financial data shows that 1919 has experienced continuous net losses from 2016 to 2022, with a total loss of over 600 million yuan during this period [8]. - Jiu Bian Li's financial performance has also been underwhelming, with two out of three years from 2022 to 2024 reporting losses [8]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Traditional liquor distributors are urged to adapt by enhancing their business models and embracing instant retail, as the market dynamics shift [12]. - 1919 is actively pursuing a new business model that integrates dining experiences with liquor sales, aiming to create a new ecosystem for liquor consumption [13]. - Companies like Huazhi Liquor are planning to leverage online and offline integration to expand their instant retail offerings, focusing on cost-effectiveness and market trends [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is actively embracing new channels and focusing on the rhythm of new product launches, particularly in the instant retail sector, which is expected to drive growth [7] - The instant retail market for alcoholic beverages in China is projected to grow significantly, with an expected market size of 1,000 billion by 2027, up from approximately 360 billion in 2024 [7] - The company aims to leverage the advantages of the Yima delivery platform to enhance brand recognition and reach younger consumers, thereby boosting sales of its whiskey and other alcoholic products [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to reach 3,499 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.80% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 806.85 million in 2025, reflecting a 12.20% increase year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.77 in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.23 [1] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company targets a revenue growth of 15% in 2025, 14% in 2026, and 18% in 2027 [7] - The net profit is expected to grow by 12% in 2025, 20% in 2026, and 22% in 2027 [7] Market Position - The company is positioned to capture a significant share of the instant retail market through its strategic partnerships and product offerings [7] - The introduction of new whiskey products is anticipated to contribute positively to the company's growth trajectory [7]