Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Zijin Mining (601899) will continue to increase its gold and copper production, with current valuation levels being highly attractive. The target price for H-shares has been raised from HKD 46.1 to HKD 59, and for A-shares from RMB 56, maintaining an "overweight" rating for both H-shares and A-shares [1] Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have surpassed Morgan Stanley's previous forecast of USD 4,750 per ounce for the second half of the year, with geopolitical risks, central bank signals, and ETF buying contributing to this trend. The bank emphasizes that under a bullish scenario, gold prices could reach USD 5,700 per ounce in the latter half of the year [1] Group 2: Copper Market Insights - Although Morgan Stanley had a positive outlook for metals, including copper, at the beginning of the year, prices have already exceeded the forecast of USD 12,200 per ton for the second quarter. The bank believes that supply tightness and a strong macroeconomic backdrop will continue to support copper prices, although short-term fluctuations may occur due to uncertainties in U.S. import trends and limited data from China before March [1] - The bank anticipates a supply deficit of approximately 600,000 tons in the copper market by 2026, with limited growth in mine supply being offset by new demand driven by data centers and energy storage systems [1]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，紫金矿业(02899,601899.SH)将持续增加黄金与铜产量，当 前估值水平极具吸引力，H股目标价由46.1港元上调至59港元，A股目标价上调至56元人民币，并重申 对其H股及A股的"增持"评级。 金价已超越该行商品团队此前对下半年每盎司4,750美元的预测，但考虑到地缘政治风险、央行积极信 号及ETF买盘等因素，金价可能尚未见顶。该行强调其看涨情境下，金价有望于下半年触及每盎司 5,700美元。铜价方面，尽管年初已对包括铜在内的金属持正面展望，但价格已提前突破该行对第二季 度每吨12,200美元的预测。该行认为，供应紧张及强劲的宏观背景将继续支撑铜价，但受美国进口走势 不确定性及中国3月前数据有限影响，短期可能出现波动。预计2026年铜市将出现约60万吨的供应缺 口，有限的矿山供应增长将被数据中心及储能系统等新需求驱动所抵消。 ...

Group 1 - The international price of copper is rapidly increasing, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper contract reaching approximately $14,020 per ton on January 29, marking a 7% increase from the previous day and surpassing the historical high of $13,407 set on January 14 [2] - There are concerns in the market about overheating, leading some investors to establish short positions. A senior client manager from Toyota Tsusho Metal indicated that the price hitting a historical high triggered short covering, which may amplify price volatility [4] - The supply environment for copper remains challenging, particularly following a sediment influx incident at one of the largest copper mines in Indonesia, which has significantly lowered expectations for copper metal supply in 2026, intensifying market concerns about ore shortages [4]

该行上调紫金矿业2026至2027年经常性盈利预测14%至18%，紫金矿业H股目标价由39.5港元升至52港 元，紫金矿业A股(601899.SH)目标价由38元升至50元人民币，维持"买入"评级。 同时，该行上调洛阳钼业2026至2027年经常性盈利预测20%至24%，洛阳钼业H股目标价由21.5港元升 至27港元，洛阳钼业A股(603993.SH)目标价由21.5元升至28元人民币，亦维持"买入"评级。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，将2026至2027年金价预测上调10%至16%，料2026年均价为每盎 司4,978美元，2027年上半年为每盎司5,585美元。该行同时调升2026年铜价预测7%至每吨12,200美元。 因此，该行上调其覆盖的中国铜业及金矿股2026至2027年的盈利预测，幅度介乎9%至33%，首选股份 为紫金矿业(02899)及洛阳钼业(03993)，因其不单止受惠于商品价格上升，其铜及黄金产量亦将同步增 长。 该行预期紫金矿业及洛阳钼业2026年铜产量将增长9%至14%。根据目前的项目进度，两间公司均有望 达成2028年产量目标，意味着届时产量较2025年增长40%至45%。在 ...

三期货有限公司 Company Limited 美元指数破位下行,铜价再度刷新历史新高 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 近期期价延续偏强走势，伦铜价格一度突破14000美元/吨，沪铜价格通近1110元/吨关口，铜价再次刷新历史新高。消息面上来看，根据财联比消息美国南方铜业公司预计2020年铜产量/下 滑至9.1.14万吨，钢矿紧张的逻辑再次发酵。另外，近期美元指数持续下探、市场对美联储独立作与财政状况的担忧加剧，美元指数于近期最低下明96，已经创造2022年以来最低值，美元指数 的回落造成货币屑性较强的商品受到资金青睐，而今年1月份以来铜价涨幅略微落后于金银，基于铜陵好的基本面，铜价短期存在补涨需求，这使得铜价在今日录得较大涨幅。 风险因素:政策风险;美联储降息不及预期;宏观经济衰退;冶炼厂减产不及预期 研究员: 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 投资咨询号:Z0016667 张 远 从业资格号:F03147334 投资咨询号:Z0022750 投资咨询号:Z0022534 王美丹 从业资格号:F03141853 鹰要提示。本报告非报货交易咨询业务项下服务。其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in copper stocks, driven by rising copper prices and favorable market conditions [1] - As of January 29, the main copper futures contract in Shanghai surged by 6%, reaching 108,740 yuan per ton, while LME copper rose over 6% to 13,936 USD per ton, marking a new high [1] - Companies such as China Nonferrous Mining (up 7.56% to 18.36 HKD), Jiangxi Copper (up 4.92% to 52.25 HKD), and Minmetals Resources (up 4.39% to 11.65 HKD) experienced notable stock price increases [1] Group 2 - Huayuan Securities indicates that in the medium to long term, insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply disruptions may shift the copper supply-demand balance from "tight equilibrium" to "shortage" [1] - The profit cycle for copper smelting is expected to bottom out against the backdrop of "anti-involution," coupled with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, suggesting potential upward movement in copper prices [1] - Galaxy Securities believes that with macroeconomic positioning in China and the U.S. becoming more accommodative, and the copper-to-gold ratio at an absolute low, the financial attributes of copper are strengthening, leading to a transition from a loose to a tight balance in the market, with expectations of a sustained long-term upward trend in copper prices [1]

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：小浪快报 2026年1月29日，北方铜业（sz000737）触及涨停，涨停价20.57元，涨幅10%，总市值391.80亿元，流 通市值391.76亿元，截止发稿，总成交额51.10亿元。 根据喜娜AI异动分析，北方铜业涨停原因可能如下，资金管理+套期保值+铜价上涨： 1、北方铜业近期 公告显示公司整体经营状况中性偏利好，主要利好因素为资金使用效率提升和套期保值业务开展。通过 闲置资金理财和临时补充流动资金，预计年化可增加财务收益1000万元以上；7亿元额度套期保值业务 可有效对冲铜价波动风险，稳定经营业绩。 2、公司产品包括阴极铜、硫酸、金锭、银锭、压延铜带箔 等，有色金属价格上涨对公司业 ...

每经AI快讯，1月29日，LME伦铜涨幅扩大，现涨2.01%，最新报13349.54美元/吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Morgan Stanley indicates that Minmetals Resources' preliminary performance for 2025 shows core earnings in line with expectations, with operational fundamentals improving [1] Financial Performance - Minmetals Resources expects core earnings to reach between $700 million and $730 million for 2025, aligning with Morgan Stanley's forecast [1] - After accounting for an impairment of $280 million to $300 million related to the Kinsevere project, the annual net profit is projected to be between $500 million and $520 million [1] Impairment Reasons - The impairment is primarily due to the local cobalt plant being in maintenance mode due to sales restrictions, unstable power supply, and uncertainties in local fiscal policies [1] Operational Stability - Other major mining operations under Minmetals Resources, including Las Bambas and Khoemacau, are maintaining stable production [1] Market Conditions - With global copper supply tightening and a weakening dollar, copper prices are expected to remain high, providing strong support for the company's overall profitability [1] Future Outlook - Despite the short-term impact of the impairment on net profit, the company's core profitability remains robust, and major operational challenges are being addressed through financial provisions and substantial improvement measures [1] - The future trajectory of profit growth is expected to remain clear, with a positive outlook maintained for Minmetals Resources, benefiting from strong copper prices and improved operational efficiency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Morgan Stanley indicates that Minmetals Resources' preliminary performance for 2025 shows core earnings in line with expectations, with operational fundamentals improving [1] Financial Performance - Minmetals Resources expects core earnings to reach between $700 million and $730 million for 2025, aligning with Morgan Stanley's forecast [1] - After accounting for an impairment of $280 million to $300 million related to the Kinsevere project, the annual net profit is projected to be between $500 million and $520 million [1] Impairment Reasons - The impairment is primarily due to the local cobalt plant being in maintenance mode due to sales restrictions, unstable power supply, and uncertainties in local fiscal policies [1] Operational Stability - Other major mining operations under Minmetals Resources, including Las Bambas and Khoemacau, are maintaining stable production [1] Market Conditions - With global copper supply being tight and a weakening dollar, copper prices are expected to remain high, providing strong support for the company's overall profitability [1] Future Outlook - Despite the short-term impact of the impairment on net profit, the company's core profitability remains robust, and major operational challenges are being addressed through financial provisions and substantial improvement measures [1] - The future trajectory of profit growth is expected to remain clear, with a positive outlook maintained by Morgan Stanley, anticipating benefits from strong copper prices and improved operational efficiency [1]