Group 1 - The core point of the news is the upcoming resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine by CATL, which is causing significant fluctuations in the lithium carbonate market and affecting stock prices of lithium companies [2][3]. - On September 10, the main contract for lithium carbonate opened at 69,000 yuan/ton, close to the limit down price of 68,400 yuan/ton, and closed with a decline of 4.87% [2]. - Major lithium companies in the A-share market, such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, saw their stock prices drop significantly, with Tianqi Lithium down 5% and Ganfeng Lithium down 3.78% by the end of the trading day [2]. Group 2 - CATL's subsidiary, Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., has established a dedicated task force to expedite the resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine, which is the largest lithium mica mining area in Yichun [3]. - The Jiangxiawo mine has a recoverable reserve of 775 million tons and an estimated construction investment of 2.158 billion yuan, with a production capacity of 30 million tons per year and a service life of approximately 25.83 years [3]. - The resumption of the Jiangxiawo mine is expected to alleviate supply concerns in the market, allowing a return to fundamental trading logic, as the market had previously anticipated potential shutdowns of other lithium companies in the region [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic lithium carbonate futures market experienced a significant decline, with the main contract (2511) opening at 69,000 CNY/ton and ultimately closing down 4.87% at 70,720 CNY/ton, indicating a broader bearish sentiment in the market [1][2]. Market Performance - The lithium mining sector in A-shares saw notable declines, with Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) dropping 5%, and other companies like Jiangte Electric (002176.SZ) and Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ) falling over 4% [4]. - The trading volume for the main lithium carbonate futures contract was 751,500 lots, with a highest price of 71,000 CNY and a lowest price of 68,600 CNY [2]. Company Developments - CATL's subsidiary, Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., has made progress in resuming operations at the Jiangxi Yichun Jiansha Wo lithium mine, with mining rights and permits advancing faster than the previously expected 3-6 month downtime [4]. - The Jiansha Wo mine is one of the largest lithium mica mines in the Yichun area, with a recoverable reserve of 77,492 million tons and an estimated service life of over 25 years based on an annual production capacity of 30 million tons [4][5]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market participants have reacted to the resumption news with excessive interpretation, leading to abnormal fluctuations in lithium carbonate futures prices, reflecting a spread of irrational market sentiment [5]. - Analysts predict that the lithium carbonate spot price will fluctuate between 69,000 and 73,000 CNY/ton in the coming month and a half, while a long-term price balance is expected to settle between 62,000 and 65,000 CNY/ton due to increased supply from overseas lithium mines and technological advancements in lithium salt production [6].

Group 1 - The domestic lithium carbonate futures market has experienced a significant decline, with the main contract (2511) opening at 69,000 yuan/ton and closing down 4.87% at 70,700 yuan/ton, approaching the limit down price of 68,400 yuan/ton [1] - Other lithium carbonate contracts also saw substantial price drops, indicating a broader market downturn [1] - Industry insiders suggest that the recent price movements may be an overreaction to news regarding CATL's resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine, which is progressing faster than the previously expected 3-6 month downtime [1] Group 2 - CATL's resumption of production aims to expedite the reopening of the Jiangxiawo lithium mine, with mining rights and permits progressing smoothly [1] - There is uncertainty regarding CATL's production targets, leading to mixed interpretations of the news within the market [1] - It is anticipated that lithium carbonate spot prices will fluctuate within the range of 69,000 to 73,000 yuan/ton over the next month and a half [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate downward in the short - term. The active promotion of the resumption of production at the Zhuxiwo lithium mine weakens the supply contraction expectation. It is recommended to go short at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 9, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three, and other contracts of lithium carbonate futures all decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the near - month contract closed at 72,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,440 yuan compared to September 8 [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures on September 9 was 591,675 lots, a decrease of 190,712 lots; the open interest was 351,340 lots, a decrease of 12,797 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 38,101 tons, an increase of 650 tons. The social inventory decreased, with smelters reducing inventory and downstream and others increasing inventory [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average prices of some lithium - related products remained stable, while the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased slightly, and the prices of lithium mica remained unchanged. For example, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 879 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars [2]. Industry News - **Zhuxiwo Lithium Mine**: On the morning of September 9, Ningde Times' subsidiary held a meeting to promote the resumption of production at the Zhuxiwo lithium mine. The progress of the mining license approval is smooth, and it is expected to resume production soon [2]. - **Chilean Cooperation**: Chilean state - owned copper miner Codelco and SQM are expected to reach a partnership to mine lithium from the Atacama salt flats. The agreement still needs anti - monopoly approval, including from Chinese regulators [2]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, with the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials rising slightly [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the production of lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down in August, 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: Buy put options [4] Core Viewpoints - The futures market of lithium carbonate may decline due to the news of mine restart and weak overall commodity sentiment. The price will gradually return to the fundamentals if the previously shut - down mines resume production [2][3]. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 74,740 yuan/ton and closed at 72,900 yuan/ton, a - 2.62% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 591,675 lots, and the open interest was 351,340 lots (364,137 lots the previous day). The current basis was - 300 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 38,101 lots, a change of 650 lots from the previous day [2]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,700 - 75,500 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,750 - 72,950 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 850 US dollars/ton, also unchanged. The market is in the peak demand season with downstream rigid demand, but procurement activities slowed slightly this week as the futures price rebounded. The supply side shows a structural differentiation, with lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounting for over 60% and that from lepidolite dropping to 15%. In September, supply and demand are both increasing, but demand is growing faster, and overall supply is expected to be tight [3]. Strategy - The futures market declined significantly after oscillation, affected by weak commodity sentiment and the possible approval of Jiangxi manufacturers. The short - term spot supply - demand pattern is good, with reduced inventory and production. If the previously shut - down mines resume production, the price will return to fundamentals, and the futures market may decline. Attention should be paid to mine operation, and participants should manage risks [3].

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate futures weakened on September 10, dropping over 6%, with lithium mining stocks like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium also declining significantly [1] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in Shanghai on September 10 was reported at 72,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan from the previous day [1] - CATL's subsidiary, Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., held a meeting to advance the resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine, which is expected to restart soon due to smooth approval progress for mining rights and licenses [1] Group 2 - The Jiangxiawo mine's suspension was seen as a significant signal for "de-involution" in the industry, leading to a temporary surge in lithium carbonate futures prices, which once exceeded 80,000 yuan [2] - The market volatility was attributed to two main factors: the lack of a noticeable reduction in lithium supply following the mine's short-term suspension and the increase in spodumene imports leading to inventory accumulation [2] - The Jiangxiawo mine is the largest lithium mica mine in Yichun, with a resource amount of approximately 960 million tons and a lithium oxide resource of 2.6568 million tons, equivalent to about 6.57 million tons of lithium carbonate [2]