Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate downward in the short - term. The active promotion of the resumption of production at the Zhuxiwo lithium mine weakens the supply contraction expectation. It is recommended to go short at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 9, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three, and other contracts of lithium carbonate futures all decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the near - month contract closed at 72,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,440 yuan compared to September 8 [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures on September 9 was 591,675 lots, a decrease of 190,712 lots; the open interest was 351,340 lots, a decrease of 12,797 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 38,101 tons, an increase of 650 tons. The social inventory decreased, with smelters reducing inventory and downstream and others increasing inventory [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average prices of some lithium - related products remained stable, while the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased slightly, and the prices of lithium mica remained unchanged. For example, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 879 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars [2]. Industry News - **Zhuxiwo Lithium Mine**: On the morning of September 9, Ningde Times' subsidiary held a meeting to promote the resumption of production at the Zhuxiwo lithium mine. The progress of the mining license approval is smooth, and it is expected to resume production soon [2]. - **Chilean Cooperation**: Chilean state - owned copper miner Codelco and SQM are expected to reach a partnership to mine lithium from the Atacama salt flats. The agreement still needs anti - monopoly approval, including from Chinese regulators [2]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, with the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials rising slightly [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the production of lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down in August, 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: Buy put options [4] Core Viewpoints - The futures market of lithium carbonate may decline due to the news of mine restart and weak overall commodity sentiment. The price will gradually return to the fundamentals if the previously shut - down mines resume production [2][3]. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 74,740 yuan/ton and closed at 72,900 yuan/ton, a - 2.62% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 591,675 lots, and the open interest was 351,340 lots (364,137 lots the previous day). The current basis was - 300 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 38,101 lots, a change of 650 lots from the previous day [2]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,700 - 75,500 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,750 - 72,950 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 850 US dollars/ton, also unchanged. The market is in the peak demand season with downstream rigid demand, but procurement activities slowed slightly this week as the futures price rebounded. The supply side shows a structural differentiation, with lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounting for over 60% and that from lepidolite dropping to 15%. In September, supply and demand are both increasing, but demand is growing faster, and overall supply is expected to be tight [3]. Strategy - The futures market declined significantly after oscillation, affected by weak commodity sentiment and the possible approval of Jiangxi manufacturers. The short - term spot supply - demand pattern is good, with reduced inventory and production. If the previously shut - down mines resume production, the price will return to fundamentals, and the futures market may decline. Attention should be paid to mine operation, and participants should manage risks [3].

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate futures weakened on September 10, dropping over 6%, with lithium mining stocks like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium also declining significantly [1] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in Shanghai on September 10 was reported at 72,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan from the previous day [1] - CATL's subsidiary, Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., held a meeting to advance the resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine, which is expected to restart soon due to smooth approval progress for mining rights and licenses [1] Group 2 - The Jiangxiawo mine's suspension was seen as a significant signal for "de-involution" in the industry, leading to a temporary surge in lithium carbonate futures prices, which once exceeded 80,000 yuan [2] - The market volatility was attributed to two main factors: the lack of a noticeable reduction in lithium supply following the mine's short-term suspension and the increase in spodumene imports leading to inventory accumulation [2] - The Jiangxiawo mine is the largest lithium mica mine in Yichun, with a resource amount of approximately 960 million tons and a lithium oxide resource of 2.6568 million tons, equivalent to about 6.57 million tons of lithium carbonate [2]