Group 1 - The company reported total operating revenue of 4.833 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 24.71% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 84 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 101.62% [1] - The company achieved a net profit of 132 thousand yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, a year-on-year increase of 100.03% [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 2.248 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.99% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 2025 was -20 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 119.05% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses in Q2 2025 was -43 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 197% [1] Group 3 - Lithium prices have been declining rapidly, increasing the company's profit pressure, with the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate at 65,300 yuan per ton in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14% [1] - Greenbush achieved a net profit of 1.742 billion yuan in H1 2025, with Tianqi's attributable net profit of 584 million yuan [1] - In Q2 2025, Greenbush's lithium concentrate production was 340,000 tons, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter, while sales increased by 12% to 412,000 tons [1] Group 4 - SQM reported a net profit of 1.621 billion yuan in H1 2025, with lithium salt sales of 108,100 tons [2] - In Q2 2025, SQM's lithium salt sales were 53,100 tons, with an average selling price of 8,384 USD per ton [2] - SQM's net profit in Q2 2025 was 88.4 million USD, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 36% [2] Group 5 - The lithium salt smelting segment reported a loss of 530 million yuan in H1 2025, with Q2 2025 losses improving to approximately 244 million yuan [2] - The company has established lithium chemical product capacity of approximately 91,600 tons per year, with plans for a total capacity of 122,600 tons per year [2] - Non-recurring gains and losses included a provision for inventory impairment of 185 million yuan in H1 2025, with additional impairment of 164 million yuan in Q2 2025 due to falling lithium salt prices [3]

Group 1 - The domestic lithium carbonate futures market has experienced a significant decline, with the main contract (2511) opening at 69,000 yuan/ton and closing down 4.87% at 70,700 yuan/ton, approaching the limit down price of 68,400 yuan/ton [1] - Other lithium carbonate contracts also saw substantial price drops, indicating a broader market downturn [1] - Industry insiders suggest that the recent price movements may be an overreaction to news regarding CATL's resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine, which is progressing faster than the previously expected 3-6 month downtime [1] Group 2 - CATL's resumption of production aims to expedite the reopening of the Jiangxiawo lithium mine, with mining rights and permits progressing smoothly [1] - There is uncertainty regarding CATL's production targets, leading to mixed interpretations of the news within the market [1] - It is anticipated that lithium carbonate spot prices will fluctuate within the range of 69,000 to 73,000 yuan/ton over the next month and a half [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium's financial performance showed improvement in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 4.833 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.71%, but a net profit of 84 million yuan, successfully turning from a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the same period last year to profit [3][5]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue decreased by nearly 25% year-on-year, while it achieved a net profit turnaround [5]. - In 2024, Tianqi Lithium reported a significant revenue drop of 67.75% to 13.063 billion yuan, with a net profit loss of 7.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 208.32% [5]. - The average market price for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide remained low, between 60,000 to 80,000 yuan per ton, contributing to the overall revenue decline [5][6]. Key Factors for Profitability - Tianqi Lithium attributed its ability to achieve profitability in a declining market to three main factors: 1. Shortened pricing cycles for its subsidiary's lithium products [6]. 2. Increased investment income from its joint venture SQM, contributing 235 million yuan to its earnings [6]. 3. A stronger Australian dollar against the US dollar, which positively impacted foreign exchange gains [6]. Asset Management - The company's asset impairment losses improved from a loss of 292 million yuan in the previous year to 185 million yuan [7]. - Tianqi Lithium is actively expanding production capacity, with a current lithium concentrate capacity of 1.62 million tons per year [7][8]. Production Capacity - The company has five operational lithium chemical product production bases with a total capacity of 91,600 tons per year, which will increase to 122,600 tons per year after the completion of projects in Jiangsu and Chongqing [9][10]. Leadership and Historical Context - The founder, Jiang Weiping, has seen his wealth decline significantly from 51.89 billion yuan in 2022 to 16 billion yuan in 2025 due to market fluctuations [4][24]. - Jiang Weiping stepped down as chairman in April 2022, passing leadership to his daughter, while still retaining control of the company [25][26]. Strategic Response - To combat the cyclical nature of lithium prices, Tianqi Lithium plans to enhance its resource and cost advantages, increase R&D investment, and strengthen collaboration across the lithium supply chain [26].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with revenue of 3.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90 million yuan, down 81.2% year-on-year [7] - The company's cesium and rubidium business saw a significant profit increase, with a revenue of 710 million yuan in the first half of 2025, up 50% year-on-year [7] - The lithium price is expected to rebound in the second half of 2025, potentially contributing over 200 million yuan in profit [7] - The copper smelting business faced losses due to tight global copper concentrate supply, but is expected to reduce losses in the third quarter of 2025 [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 670 million yuan, 1.28 billion yuan, and 2.15 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6,013 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.22% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 2,208.16 million yuan, down 32.98% year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at 3.06 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.29 [1] - The company expects a total revenue of 7,016 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.81% [1] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 670.67 million yuan, a decrease of 11.40% year-on-year [1] - The EPS for 2025 is expected to be 0.93 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 43.75 [1]

2025 年 8 月 22 日 碳酸锂：周库存再度去化，区间震荡 | | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 81,040 | -6,540 | -4,000 | 11,780 | 9,760 | 18,460 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 55,748 | 27,298 | -19,995 | -47,957 | -792,402 | 18,478 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 65,157 | -11,043 | -43,237 | -96,741 | -316,028 | -18,225 | | | 盘面 | 2 ...

近几周来，锂价大幅上涨——尽管仍远低于其峰值水平的 80%——原因是市场参与者正在应对宁德时 代（300750）江西宜春"枧下窝"锂矿的关闭问题。近年来，由于新矿投产以及需求增长放缓，全球锂供 应过剩的局面一直使价格处于低迷状态。 SQM公司目前预计，其在智利的业务在 2025 年的销售量将较去年增长约 10%。该公司还上调了在澳大 利亚的销售预期。不过，由于市场价格低迷，该公司第二季度的销售量较第一季度有所下降。 该公司首席执行官里Ricardo Ramos在声明中表示："我们部分已签订的合同已达到其中设定的最低限 额，这影响了双方所商定的产量。"该公司预测，今年下半年其在澳大利亚的产量将"大幅增加"，并将 其国际锂业务部门 2025 年的销售预期上调至约2万吨锂碳酸盐等量。 全球顶尖的锂矿生产商之一智利矿业化工(SQM.US)第二季度的核心盈利出现下滑，原因是用于电池生 产的这种材料的价格跌至多年来的最低点。扣除特定项目后的调整后盈利较上年同期下降了 28%，至 3.079 亿美元。该公司表示，锂行业一直受到全球供应过剩的严重影响，这导致价格大幅下跌，不过中 国减少产量的举措近期推动了价格的回升。 该公司 ...

据报宁德时代宜春锂矿工厂因采矿许可证到期，已于8月10日暂停生产。该行认为此举与内地政府自7月 起整顿违规锂矿开采有关，但料宜春工厂停产对宁德时代的营运影响有限，因公司拥有多元化的锂资源 供应渠道，必要时可迅速转向第三方采购。该行认为此次停产或对全球锂供应格局产生显著的连锁效 应，继而推高市场对锂价的情绪，料锂价短期或面临上行风险，可能抑制电池制商今年下半年的利润。 智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，宁德时代(03750,300750.SZ)在锂价波动时期展现的强劲利润防御 能力，令该行确信其应对冲击的能力将优于同行;重申对宁德时代A股"高度确信跑赢大市"评级，目标价 390元人民币，H股"跑赢大市"评级，目标价535港元。 ...

据报宁德时代宜春锂矿工厂因采矿许可证到期，已于8月10日暂停生产。该行认为此举与内地政府自7月 起整顿违规锂矿开采有关，但料宜春工厂停产对宁德时代的营运影响有限，因公司拥有多元化的锂资源 供应渠道，必要时可迅速转向第三方采购。该行认为此次停产或对全球锂供应格局产生显著的连锁效 应，继而推高市场对锂价的情绪，料锂价短期或面临上行风险，可能抑制电池制商今年下半年的利润。 里昂发布研报称，宁德时代（300750）(03750,300750.SZ)在锂价波动时期展现的强劲利润防御能力，令 该行确信其应对冲击的能力将优于同行;重申对宁德时代A股"高度确信跑赢大市"评级，目标价390元人 民币，H股"跑赢大市"评级，目标价535港元。 ...

该行认为，此次停产或对全球锂供应格局产生显著的连锁效应，继而推高市场对锂价的情绪。该行料锂 价短期或面临上行风险，可能抑制电池制商今年下半年的利润。然而，宁德时代在锂价波动时期展现的 强劲利润防御能力，令该行确信其应对冲击的能力将优于同行；重申对宁德时代A股"高度确信跑赢大 市"评级，目标价390元，H股"跑赢大市"评级，目标价535港元。 里昂发表研究报告指，据报宁德时代宜春锂矿工厂因采矿许可证到期，已于8月10日暂停生产。该行预 计宜春工厂停产对宁德时代的营运影响有限，因公司拥有多元化的锂资源供应渠道，必要时可迅速转向 第三方采购。 ...

【导读】宁德时代回应宜春项目矿区停产问题，碳酸锂主力合约涨停，锂矿概念股大涨 碳酸锂期货主力合约涨停 中国基金报记者张舟 过去几周，江西大厂矿区停产消息备受关注，成为扰动碳酸锂价格走向的核心原因之一。8月9日，多方渠道消息证实，江西宜春枧下窝矿区采矿端停产。 不过，周末宁德时代并未回应。 8月11日上午，宁德时代在互动平台正式回应：公司在宜春项目采矿许可证8月9日到期后，确已暂停了开采作业。 宁德时代表示："公司正按相关规定尽快办理采矿证延续申请，待获得批复后将尽早恢复生产，该事项对公司整体经营影响不大。" 8月11日，国内商品期市开盘，碳酸锂主力合约涨停，报81000元/吨。宁德时代枧下窝锂矿停产，工业硅上涨3.26%。 机构预计未来几天锂价或升至8万元每吨 锂矿概念股大涨 8月11日开盘，A股锂矿概念股集体大涨，江特电机、永杉锂业涨停。 盛新锂能、天齐锂业涨超8%，中矿资源涨超7%，威领股份、融捷股份、永兴材料、赣锋锂业等跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 总市值 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002240 | 盛新 ...