1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the EC2604 contract nearing delivery, investors are advised to closely follow the spot market and operate flexibly, considering the profit - loss ratio. The contract's settlement price will become clearer about one and a half months before the delivery month, and its volatility will gradually converge [4]. - The EC2606, EC2607, and EC2608 contracts for the relatively peak seasons of June, July, and August are expected to have relatively strong short - term trends. However, since these contracts have risen significantly from the bottom, the actual freight rates in the future are still uncertain, and investors need to respond flexibly [5]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 for arbitrage, with no unilateral strategy at present [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of March 5, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 74,605.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 209,509.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2607, EC2608, EC2609, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1768.00, 1805.00, 1950.10, 2066.40, 2010.00, 1498.30, 1394.90, and 1677.30 respectively [6]. 3.2 Spot Prices - On February 27, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1420 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1857 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2691 US dollars/FEU. On March 2, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1463.40 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1045.08 points [6]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU were delivered in 2026. Among them, 6 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 86,000 TEU, and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU was delivered, with a capacity of 17,148 TEU. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 679,000 TEU (46 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,224,000 TEU (84 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,636,000 TEU (81 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 (January - June) [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity of the China - European base port in March was 268,600 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 10/11/12/13/14 were 149,100/309,200/289,500/262,400/333,000 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in April was 287,900 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 15/16/17/18 were 299,300/314,500/299,400/238,500 TEU respectively. There were 11 blank sailings in March (4 by the OA Alliance, 1 by the Gemini Alliance, and 6 by the MSC/PA Alliance), and 3 TBNs in April. The latest capacity data shows that the average weekly capacity of the China - Europe route in March was 299,000 TEU, and in April it was 327,000 TEU [3][4]. 3.4 Supply Chain - The probability of the Suez Canal resuming navigation in the first half of the year is relatively low. In the Iran incident, the Houthi rebels' resumption of attacks on shipping in the Red Sea corridor may confirm this expectation. COSCO emphasized that the process from trial resumption to full resumption may be a gradual one lasting 3 - 5 months. The resumption of the Red Sea route requires multiple conditions to be met, including industry association evaluation, insurance companies reducing premiums, customer recognition of safety, and internal consensus within the alliance [5]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The monthly year - on - year growth rate of the demand side of the Asia - Europe route has been relatively high, with the year - on - year growth rate of container trade volume in most months exceeding 10% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MSC is attempting to raise prices in the second half of March, and attention should be paid to Maersk's opening price in the first week of the second half of March [1][6]. - For the relatively peak - season contracts of June, July, and August, the current expectations are strong. The EC2606, EC2607, and EC2608 contracts may have relatively strong short - term trends due to factors such as the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of the year, relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and relatively high year - on - year growth in the demand side of Asia - Europe trade [8]. - The EC2604 contract is approaching delivery. Investors are advised to closely follow the spot market and operate flexibly, considering the profit - loss ratio [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of March 2, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 85,022.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 117,432.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2604 at 1429.20, EC2605 at 1637.40, EC2606 at 1885.10, EC2607 at 2094.20, EC2608 at 1980.40, EC2609 at 1497.50, EC2610 at 1342.90, and EC2512 at 1666.50 [9]. II. Spot Prices - On February 27, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1420 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1857 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2691 US dollars/FEU. On March 2, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1463.40 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1045.08 points [9]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU were delivered in 2026. For 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 6 ships with a total of 86,000 TEU were delivered; for ships over 17,000 TEU, 1 ship with a capacity of 17,148 TEU was delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 679,000 TEU (46 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,224,000 TEU (84 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,636,000 TEU (81 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 [4]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity of the China - European base port in March was 268,600 TEU, with the capacities in weeks 10/11/12/13/14 being 149,100/309,200/289,500/262,400/333,000 TEU respectively. In April, the average weekly capacity was 287,900 TEU, with the capacities in weeks 15/16/17/18 being 299,300/314,500/299,400/238,500 TEU respectively. There were 11 blank sailings in March (4 by the OA alliance, 1 by the Gemini alliance, and 6 by the MSC/PA alliance), and 3 TBNs in April [5]. IV. Supply Chain - There was an explosion in the diplomatic area of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and explosions were also heard near the US embassy [4]. V. Demand and European Economy - The year - on - year growth rate of the demand side of Asia - Europe trade has been relatively high, with the year - on - year growth rate of container trade volume in most months exceeding 10% [8]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral**: None for now. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610; go long on EC2607 and short on EC2610 [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates were adjusted in the first half of March, and attention should be paid to whether the price increase notices for April will be issued soon [1][5]. - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of relevant industries and further affect shipping companies' pricing strategies [5]. - The freight volume from March to April is relatively weak in normal years. Attention should be paid to whether the current freight rates can stabilize in the second half of March [5]. - Shipping companies may issue price increase notices every month from March to August. The 4 - month contract is gradually shifting towards the delivery logic [5]. - The long - term contracts have strong expectations of price increases under the background of the peak season, with intense games on the resumption time and high expected volatility [6]. - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. The pressure on the delivery of ultra - large vessels in the first half of 2026 is relatively small. If the Suez Canal does not resume operation in the first half of the year, the pressure on the supply side in the first half of 2026 is still relatively controllable, and the freight rates may still be expected to rise [6]. - Investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities of going long on EC2606 and short on EC2610, or going long on EC2607 and short on EC2610 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different freight rate quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in March. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk has WEEK11 quotes of 1230/1960 and WEEK12 quotes of 1155/1830; HPL's quotes are 1335/2235 in the first half of March and 1935/3135 in the second half [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: US officials said that Trump is expected to convene senior advisors on Friday to discuss the Iran issue in detail and decide on the course of action against Tehran. The focus of the discussion is not whether an attack will occur, but its scope and potential targets [3]. 2. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU. The delivery expectations for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000 + TEU ships in the remaining months of 2026 and subsequent years are provided [3][4]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in March was 290,100 TEU, and in April it is expected to be 310,000 TEU. There were 8 blank sailings and 4 TBNs in March [4]. 3. Freight Rate and Market Trends - **Freight Rate Adjustment**: The freight rates of some shipping companies have been adjusted after the price increase notices were issued in March. The current freight rate range in the first half of March is between 1,800 - 2,300 US dollars/FEU [5]. - **Price Increase Notices**: Shipping companies usually issue price increase notices in March and April to stabilize prices. From March to August, shipping companies may issue price increase notices every month [5]. - **Contract Trends**: The 4 - month contract is gradually shifting towards the delivery logic, and the long - term contracts have strong expectations of price increases under the background of the peak season [5][6]. 4. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The 4 - month contract fluctuates [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610, or go long on EC2607 and short on EC2610 [6][8]. 5. Market Data - **Futures Prices**: As of February 26, 2026, the closing prices of different container shipping index futures contracts are provided, such as EC2604 at 1,236.00, EC2605 at 1,414.80, etc. [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes on different dates are provided, such as the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe) price of 1,361 US dollars/TEU on February 13 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Monitor the price - following situation of other shipping companies in March after Maersk's price cut in the second week of March [1] - The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and investors should participate with caution. There are opportunities for arbitrage such as going long on EC2606 and short on EC2610, or going long on EC2607 and short on EC2610 [6][7] - Pay attention to whether the current freight rates can stabilize in the second half of March, and whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe can significantly increase in March [6] - In the long - term, the expectation of price increases in the peak season is strong, and the volatility is expected to remain high. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process [7] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Prices - As of February 25, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 63,784.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 44,121.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1278.60, 1659.00, 1730.30, 1158.20, and 1444.50 respectively [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - On February 13, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1361 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 1787 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2524 US dollars/FEU. On February 23, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1573.51 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1112.01 points [8] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships have been delivered in 2026, with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 737,400 TEU (50 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small [4] - Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in March is 290,100 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 10/11/12/13/14 are 169,500/360,200/303,100/299,400/318,900 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in April is 310,000 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 15/16/17/18 are 333,800/308,900/305,500/291,800 TEU respectively. There are 8 blank sailings and 4 TBNs in March [5] 3.4 Supply Chain - Geopolitical situation: The US military has started to deploy six additional F - 22 stealth fighters to the Middle East, and they are expected to be deployed at an Israeli Air Force base [3] - Red Sea resumption: The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. COSCO management indicates that there is still no clear schedule for the full resumption of the Red Sea. It may take 3 - 5 months from the attempt to full resumption. Maersk will adjust its routes to pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal [7] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Policy impact: The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies [6] - Seasonal characteristics: In normal years, April and October are the months with the lowest freight rates. The freight volume from March to April is relatively weak, and shipping companies may issue price increase letters every month from March to August [6][7]

Market Analysis - The shipping rates for various routes have shown fluctuations, with Maersk's Shanghai-Rotterdam WEEK 11 quote at $1210/$1920, and the Shanghai-London basic port quote rising to $1320/$2100 [12][12] - MSC's quotes for March include $1400/$2340 for the first half and $1940/$3035 for the second half, while HMM's quote for Shanghai-Rotterdam is $1783/$3136 [12][12] - The Ocean Alliance's CMA has a quote of $1459/$2593 for the first half of March and $2159/$2793 for the second half [12][12] Supply Dynamics - As of January 31, 2026, six container ships have been delivered, totaling a capacity of 46,950 TEU, with future deliveries expected to be 737,400 TEU in 2026, 944,600 TEU in 2027, and 1,212,000 TEU in 2028 for 12,000-16,999 TEU vessels [13][14] - For vessels over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU are expected to be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, with 862,800 TEU in 2027 and 1,603,000 TEU in 2028 [14][14] Pricing Trends - A price increase notice is expected to be issued soon, with March and April typically being low months for shipping rates. The cancellation of VAT export rebates for solar products may disrupt shipping pricing strategies [15][15] - MSC's latest March rate is $1400/$2340, with Maersk's Rotterdam price remaining at $1900/FEU and London price increasing by $200 to $2100/FEU [15][15] Future Outlook - The market anticipates strong price increase expectations as it enters the peak season, with ongoing negotiations regarding the reopening of the Suez Canal and the Red Sea [16][17] - The delivery pressure for ultra-large vessels in the first half of 2026 is expected to be manageable, with only four vessels over 17,000 TEU scheduled for delivery [17][17] - Historical data suggests that the highest shipping rates typically occur in July, with expectations for 2023-2025 indicating July as the peak month [17][17] Contract and Trading Strategies - The futures market shows a total open interest of 61,202 contracts, with daily transactions of 63,374 contracts. The closing prices for various contracts indicate a mixed market sentiment [18][18] - Suggested trading strategies include long positions on EC2606 and short positions on EC2610, as well as long positions on EC2607 and short positions on EC2610 [18][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The pre - holiday freight rate drive is weak, and the near - term 04 contract is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to whether the shipping companies' price - holding measures are implemented after the holiday. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm and the pricing strategies of shipping companies. It is necessary to monitor whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be firmer than in normal years. The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and investors are advised to participate with caution. Shipping companies usually issue price - increase letters in March and April to stabilize prices. As of now, it is still unclear whether the price increase in March will succeed. If the price increase is successful in early March, the valuation bottom of the EC2604 contract may rise. The long - term contracts face intense speculation on the resumption time, and the volatility is expected to remain high. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. If it does not resume in the first half of 2026, the pressure on the shipping capacity in the first half of the year will be relatively controllable, and higher freight rates can be expected. Investors can consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of February 12, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 54,481.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 42,518.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1258.90, 1566.10, 1632.00, 1131.10, and 1425.40 respectively [8]. II. Spot Prices - On February 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1403 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 1801 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2530 US dollars/FEU. On February 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1657.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1155.66 points [8]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU have been delivered in 2026. Among them, 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, 737,400 TEU (50 ships) are expected to be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) are expected to be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and only 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU will be delivered in the first half of 2026 [3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: In the remaining three weeks of February, the average weekly capacity is 271,600 TEU, with capacities of 366,600 TEU, 259,800 TEU, and 188,300 TEU in Weeks 7, 8, and 9 respectively. In March, the average weekly capacity is 288,400 TEU, with capacities of 158,300 TEU, 365,200 TEU, 304,700 TEU, 320,400 TEU, and 293,500 TEU in Weeks 10 - 14 respectively. In April, the average weekly capacity is 274,700 TEU, with capacities of 295,500 TEU, 294,400 TEU, 263,500 TEU, and 245,400 TEU in Weeks 15 - 18 respectively. There are 13 blank sailings in February (6 by the OA Alliance, 6 by the PA Alliance, and 1 by the Gemini Alliance), 7 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March, and 1 blank sailing and 4 TBNs in April [4]. IV. Supply Chain - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. COSCO management indicates that there is still no clear schedule for the full resumption of the Red Sea route. It may take 3 - 5 months from the attempt to full resumption. Multiple conditions need to be met for the resumption of the Red Sea route, including industry association assessment, insurance premium reduction, customer recognition of safety, and internal consensus within the alliance. Currently, the detour has become the new normal for the customer supply chain, and COSCO is cautious about returning to the Red Sea. Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route will be structurally adjusted to transit through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. If possible, Maersk will also adjust the AE12 and AE15 services in the subsequent stage to pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal [7]. V. Demand and European Economy No specific content related to demand and European economy is provided in the given text other than the figures mentioned in the catalog.

FICC日报 | 2026-02-11 3月份涨价能否成功尚不明，主力合约短期走势震荡 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹 WEEK7报价1270/2040，WEEK8 报价1210/1920，WEEK9报价 1200/1900，WEEK11报价1200/1900（其中上海-伦敦基本港WEEK11周报价涨至1320/2100）；HPL 2月上半月船期 报价1135/1835，2月下半月船期报价1135/1835，3月份船期报价1835/2935 。HPL发布3月份涨价函1900/3100 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 2月上半月价格1280/2140，2月下半月船期价格1280/2140；ONE 2月上半月船期报 价1290/2035，2月下半月船期报价1290/2035，3月上半月船期报价1620/2535；HMM上海-鹿特丹2月上半月船期报 价1233/2036，2月下半月船期1233/2036 ，3月份船期报价1783/3136.MSC发布3月份涨价函1800/3000. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹2月份上半月船 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maersk's WEEK6 quotation dropped more than expected, leading to a downward revision of the valuation of the delivery settlement price of the 02 contract. The cargo volume in December and January was at a relatively high level within the year [4]. - Canceling the VAT export tax - rebate policy for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the off - season characteristics of the 04 contract, and the fluctuation of the 04 contract is expected to increase. Maersk's attempt to resume navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal will disrupt the expectations of more distant contracts [6]. - In normal years, April and October are the months with the lowest freight rates. After the cancellation of the VAT export tax - rebate, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can significantly increase and whether the actual freight rates will be firmer than in normal years. Before the Spring Festival, the overall driving force is expected to be bearish, and the short - selling direction has certain advantages. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the behavioral changes of shipping companies [6]. - The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in 2026 is relatively small, but the annual delivery volume of vessels over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. The delivery volume of vessels over 17,000 TEU in the first half of 2026 is only 4 ships [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Prices - As of January 20, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 61,346.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 37,315.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1710.00, 1112.60, 1317.40, 1467.90, 1052.90, and 1318.00 respectively [7]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotations: For Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam route, the WEEK4 price was 1695/2730, WEEK5 was 1515/2430, and WEEK6 was 1265/2010. Other shipping companies also had corresponding price quotations for different time periods [1]. - The current estimated first - phase delivery settlement price corresponds to a spot price of about 2700 - 2800 US dollars/FEU (initially estimated to be around 1900 points). The second - phase delivery settlement price corresponds to an SCFIS initially estimated at 2500 - 2600 US dollars/FEU. The 2 - month contract delivery settlement price is initially estimated to be around 1700 points [5]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. Among them, 80 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU were delivered, and 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 277,672 TEU were delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 781,200 TEU (53 ships) will be delivered in 2026, 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 210,400 TEU (9 ships) will be delivered in 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029 [2][3]. - Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity in the remaining 2 weeks of January was 342,200 TEU, with WEEK4/5 capacities of 408,600/275,800 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in February was 273,700 TEU, and the capacities of WEEK6/7/8/9 were 255,800/325,200/292,100/221,800 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March was 289,700 TEU, and the capacities of WEEK10/11/12/13/14 were 255,500/328,400/343,300/274,200/247,300 TEU respectively. There were 2 TBNs and 8 blank sailings in February and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3]. 3.4 Supply Chain - CMA CGM has decided to divert ships deployed on the FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of passing through the Suez Canal due to the complex and uncertain international situation [2]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Canceling the VAT export tax - rebate policy for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can significantly increase and whether the actual freight rates will be firmer than in normal years [6].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 高聪 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹WEEK4价格1695/2730，WEEK5价格1510/2420；HPL 1月下半 月船期报价1585/2535，2月上半月船期报价1585/2535． MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 1月下半月船期报价1580/2640；ONE 1月下半月船期报价1680/2635，2月 上半月船期报价1680/2635；HMM上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价1433/2436． Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价1859/3293，2月份船期价格1859/3293；EMC1月 下半月船期报价3030-3130美元/FEU；OOCL 1月上半月份船期报价2580-2630美元/FEU。 地缘端：丹麦航运巨头马士基（Maersk）当地时间周四表示，在该地区安全形势趋于稳定后，将恢复通 过红海和苏伊士运河的航行，但仍将密切关注中东地区的安全局势。这标志着在也门胡塞武装袭击船只 导致全球海运贸易持续两年 ...

每经AI快讯，12月22日，集运指数欧线期货连续主力合约日内涨9%，现报1877.50元。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...