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FICC日报:运价顶部已现,关注马士基报价-20250729
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 05:37
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The top of the freight rate has likely appeared, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes [1][3] - The August contract is experiencing high - level fluctuations and a game around delivery, with the freight rate top probably reached [3] - The October contract should be mainly short - allocated, and subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate, with large expected fluctuations [4] - The December contract follows the seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons, and the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume operation [4] - The strategy includes a fluctuating main contract for the unilateral approach, and for the arbitrage, go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes for Shanghai - Rotterdam routes from different shipping companies show some price adjustments. For example, Maersk's prices decreased from Week 31 to Week 32, and some companies' August upper - half - month quotes changed [1] - Geopolitical situation in the Gaza region may impact shipping, with ongoing military actions and discussions about a possible cease - fire [1] 2. Shipping Capacity - China - Europe base port's August monthly average weekly shipping capacity is 303,200 TEU, and September's is 289,800 TEU. There are changes in weekly capacity and additional vessels in Maersk [2] - In August, there were 4 empty sailings from the OA alliance and 5 TBNs; in September, there are 3 TBNs [2] 3. Contract Analysis - August contract: The freight rate is in high - level fluctuations. The settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25. The top of the freight rate has likely appeared, and the final settlement price may be around 2200 points [3] - October contract: It is a seasonal contract, mainly for short - allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. Normally, the October price is 20% - 30% lower than August's [4] - December contract: The freight rate is usually higher in December due to Western holidays and shipping companies' strategies. The risk is the resumption of the Suez Canal [4] 4. Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 28, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 77,192 lots, and the daily trading volume is 70,845 lots. Different contracts have different closing prices [5] - SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes are provided, such as the Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, and Shanghai - US East routes [5] 5. Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates [6] - Arbitrage: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [6] 6. Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 27, 2025, 157 container ships with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU have been delivered [5] - Details of ships in different capacity ranges (12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU) delivered are provided [5]
ONE线下价格下修至3108美元/FEU,现货价格顶部大概率已现
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 03:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the spot freight rate has likely appeared, with the offline price of ONE adjusted down to $3108/FEU [1][4]. - The August contract is experiencing high - level fluctuations, and the top of the freight rate has likely emerged. The 08 contract's delivery settlement price may fall around 2200 points [4]. - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, and subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate, with expected high volatility [5]. - The December contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [6][7]. - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries [8]. - For trading strategies, the main contract is expected to fluctuate. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of July 24, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 80,317 lots, and the daily trading volume was 74,208 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1477.30, 1324.00, 1468.80, 2239.70, 1537.00, and 1701.80 respectively [7]. II. Spot Price - Online quotes vary among different shipping companies. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 31 was 1907/3214, and in week 32 it was 1780/2980. In the second half of July, the offline price of the PA alliance was between $3100 - 3300/FEU, and that of the OA alliance was between $3200 - 3500/FEU [2][4]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From January to July 20, 2025, 151 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.204 million TEU. Among them, 47 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, totaling 705,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, totaling 159,880 TEU [8]. - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining two weeks of July was 272,000 TEU. In August, the average weekly capacity was 310,500 TEU, and in September it was 276,400 TEU. Maersk will add two additional ships in August, with a total capacity of about 29,000 TEU [3]. IV. Supply Chain - The situation of container ship passage through major canals such as the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Panama Canal is presented in the figures, which can reflect the impact on the supply chain [66][68][74]. - The congestion ratio and congested capacity of global container ships are also shown in the figures, which are important factors affecting the supply chain [57]. V. Demand and European Economy - Figures such as the EU 27's industrial production index, import value from China, consumer confidence index, and retail sales year - on - year can reflect the demand and economic situation in Europe [39][40][41]. - China's export volume to the EU and total export volume can also provide insights into the demand side [43][44].
部分船司8月上半月价格公布,关注马士基8月第二周价格
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 05:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 8 - month contract price of shipping rates is oscillating at a high level, with a game over delivery. The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, focusing on the downward slope of shipping rates. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season rules, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. The main contract is expected to oscillate, and the recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract on rallies [3][4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes show different price levels for various shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk has a price of 1885/3170 in week 31, and HPL's quotes increase from the second half of July to the first half of August [1]. - The weekly average capacity on the China - European base port route varies by month. In August, there are 3 blank sailings from the OA alliance, and there are new additional vessels from Maersk in weeks 32 and 34 [2]. 3.2 Contract Analysis - **8 - month contract**: The price is oscillating at a high level. Some companies try to increase prices, and it is estimated that the shipping rate in August will be similar to that in July. The final delivery settlement price of the 08 contract may be around 2200 points [3]. - **10 - month contract**: It is a seasonal contract for the off - season, mainly for short - allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of shipping rates. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August [4]. - **12 - month contract**: In the fourth quarter, due to festivals and long - term agreement negotiations, shipping rates are usually at a high level. However, the risk is whether the Suez Canal will reopen. Normally, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [4][5]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 21, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route futures is 83,537 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 88,745 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1486.40, EC2508 at 2291.90, etc. [5]. - On July 18, the SCFI prices for Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, and Shanghai - US East routes are 2079.00 dollars/TEU, 2142.00 dollars/FEU, and 3612.00 dollars/FEU respectively. On July 21, the SCFIS for Shanghai - Europe is 2400.50 points, and for Shanghai - US West is 1301.81 points [5]. 3.4 Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 20, 2025, 151 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.204 million TEU. Among them, 47 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 7 ships of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered [6]. 3.5 Strategy - **Unilateral strategy**: The main contract is expected to oscillate. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract on rallies [7].
运价高位徘徊,马士基8月份新增两艘加班船
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 05:02
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate of the container shipping index on the European line is hovering at a high level. The 8 - month contract is in a high - level shock and game for delivery, the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation, and the 12 - month contract's freight rate is usually high, but it is affected by whether the Suez Canal resumes navigation [3][4]. - The container shipping industry is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, ship capacity supply, and market demand. The current situation shows fluctuations in freight rates and changes in shipping capacity [2][4]. - The trading strategies include the main contract oscillating, going long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and shorting the 10 - month contract on rallies [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes vary among different shipping companies. For example, the price of Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam in Week 31 is 1855/3110, and HPL's quotes for the second half of July and the first half of August are different [1]. - Geopolitical events such as the military actions of the Yemeni Houthi rebels may impact shipping routes and freight rates [2]. - The weekly average capacity of China - European base ports in July is 303,500 TEU, and in August it is 310,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August, mostly from the OA alliance [2]. 2. Contract Analysis - 8 - month contract: The freight rate is in a high - level shock, and CMA still has a price - holding expectation in August. The estimated SCFIS from July 21st to July 28th is between 2300 - 2400 points [3]. - 10 - month contract: It is mainly for short - allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August [4]. - 12 - month contract: The seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. The risk lies in whether the Suez Canal resumes navigation. Usually, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [4]. 3. Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 16, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index on the European line futures is 86,287.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 122,392.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary [5]. - On July 11th, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 2099.00 US dollars/TEU, and on July 14th, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 2421.94 points [6]. 4. Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.194 million TEU [6]. 5. Strategies - Unilateral: The main contract oscillates. - Arbitrage: Go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract on rallies [7].
FICC日报:马士基WEEK31周运价沿用,马士基8月份新增两艘加班船-20250716
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 05:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of container shipping index futures for European routes fluctuates. The recommended strategy is to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [7]. - The August contract price of container shipping is in a high - level oscillation, with a game around delivery. The CMA still has an expectation to support prices in August. The October contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The December contract follows the pattern of peak and off - seasons, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's price for WEEK31 from Shanghai to Rotterdam is 1855/3110, while HPL's quotes for the second half of July and the first half of August are 2035/3335 and 2235/3535 respectively [1]. - Geopolitical situation: The Yemeni Houthi rebels launched a military operation with three drones against two locations in Israel on the 15th, and they will continue military actions until Israel stops the aggression against Gaza and lifts the blockade [2]. - Shipping capacity: The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining three weeks of July is 303,500 TEU, and the monthly average weekly shipping capacity in August is 310,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August. Maersk will add two extra - sailing vessels in August, with a total capacity of about 29,000 TEU [2]. 3.2 Contract Analysis - August contract: The freight rate is in a high - level oscillation, with a game around delivery. The CMA still has an expectation to support prices in August. The estimated SCFIS from July 21st to July 28th is between 2300 - 2400 points. Historically, the freight rate from Shanghai to European base ports generally peaks around WEEK34 [3]. - October contract: It is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August [4]. - December contract: The peak - off - season pattern still exists, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. Usually, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [4]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: As of July 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index futures for European routes is 85,457 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 159,135 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided, such as EC2602 at 1516.40, EC2604 at 1319.00, etc. [5]. - Spot prices: On July 11, the SCFI for the Shanghai - Europe route was 2099.00 US dollars/TEU, for the Shanghai - US West route was 2194.00 US dollars/FEU, and for the Shanghai - US East route was 4172.00 US dollars/FEU. On July 14, the SCFIS for the Shanghai - Europe route was 2421.94 points, and for the Shanghai - US West route was 1266.59 points [6]. 3.4 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 11, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.194 million TEU. Among them, 46 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 689,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [6]. 3.5 Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates. - Arbitrage: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [7].
运价高位震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 05:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The freight rate is fluctuating at a high level. The 8 - month contract is in a state of high - level volatility and game for delivery, with expectations of price support. The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the downward slope of the freight rate. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [3][4]. - The strategy includes a volatile main contract for unilateral trading, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract on rallies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of July 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes was 77,426.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 58,106.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1386.10, 1218.60, 1382.20, 2027.20, 1440.70, and 1580.50 respectively [5][6]. II. Spot Price - On July 11, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 2099.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2194.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 4172.00 US dollars/FEU. On July 14, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2421.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1266.59 points [6]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 11, 2025, 141 container ships had been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.194 million TEU. Among them, 46 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 689,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [6]. IV. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, representatives of the Syrian regime and the Syrian Kurdish armed forces met and negotiated in Damascus. The Syrian regime advocates "one Syria, one army, one government" and opposes separatism [2]. - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining 3 weeks of July was 303,500 TEU, and the monthly average weekly capacity in August was 310,000 TEU. There were 5 blank sailings in July (4 by the OA alliance) and 2 in August (both by the OA alliance). Maersk plans to add an extra - sailing ship in WEEK34 [2]. V. Demand and European Economy - In the off - season of April and October, the freight rate is usually at a low level. In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays, the shipping volume is high, and shipping companies adjust supply to keep freight rates high. The price in December is generally 10% higher than that in October in normal years [4].
FICC日报:MSC下半月价格下修,远东:欧洲航线价格依然在寻顶-20250710
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 05:33
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The price of MSC in the second half of July decreased by 200 USD/FEU to 3000 USD/FEU, while the price of Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam slightly increased by 50 USD/FEU to 3000 USD/FEU. The top of the freight rate may have appeared, and the subsequent focus is on whether other shipping companies will follow suit, especially the PA Alliance [3]. - The 8 - month contract freight rate is likely to peak and decline, with a focus on the freight rate follow - up of other shipping companies and the game of delivery. The 10 - month contract is a off - season contract, mainly for short - allocation, and the subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season rules, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation [3][4][5]. - The strategy includes a sideways movement of the main contract in the single - side trading, and a long 12 - short 10 and short 10 strategy in the arbitrage trading [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of July 10, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 76,890.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 38,843.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1353.40, 1190.80, 1332.50, 2012.50, 1390.00, and 1553.70 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - On July 4, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 2101.00 USD/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2089.00 USD/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 4124.00 USD/FEU. On July 7, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2258.04 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1557.77 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 6, 2025, 141 container ships had been delivered, with a total capacity of 11.12 million TEU. Among them, 44 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 658,000 TEU, and 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU [6]. - The weekly average capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 4 weeks of July was 294,100 TEU, and the weekly average capacity in August was 305,000 TEU. There were 5 blank sailings in July (4 by the OA Alliance and 1 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 2 blank sailings in August (both by the OA Alliance) [2]. 4. Supply Chain - The Syrian regime and the Syrian Kurdish armed forces held talks in Damascus, and the Syrian regime welcomed cooperation to defend national unity and territorial integrity [2]. - The rumored Maersk overtime ship MAERSK FREEPOT/5920TEU changed its route from the Far East - Europe route to the Far East - South America East route [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy There is no specific content in the provided text that directly elaborates on demand and European economy other than the potential impact on freight rates from factors such as European economic recovery or decline mentioned in the risk section.
FICC日报:马士基7月下半月第一周价格沿用,关注后期其他船司跟随情况-20250702
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 05:48
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of Maersk in the first week of the second half of July remained unchanged, delaying the previous market expectation that the freight rate would peak in the first half of July. The 08 contract has partially repaired the expected difference, and the market is still searching for the peak [1][5]. - The supply and demand of the US route increased simultaneously in the early stage, and the supply recovered rapidly. The freight rates from the US East and West coasts have declined from their highs but are showing signs of stabilization [3]. - Since the current freight rate is likely to be searching for the peak, the off - season EC2410 contract can be sold for hedging at high prices during the freight rate decline [6]. - The trading strategy includes a volatile main contract and a long - December and short - October spread strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of July 1, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes was 87,953 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 96,679 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1341.50, 1187.80, 1322.10, 1904.90, 1383.80, and 1538.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route vary. For example, Maersk's price for week 29 from Shanghai to Rotterdam is 1780/2980; HPL's quotes for the first half of July, the second half of July, and the first half of August are 2035/3235, 2235/3535, and 2235/3535 respectively. Different alliances and shipping companies also have different price quotes [2]. - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe) price announced on June 27 was 2030.00 US dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West) was 2578.00 US dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 4717.00 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on July 1 was 2123.24 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1619.19 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In the early stage of the US route, the supply and demand increased simultaneously, and the carriers actively restored capacity in June and July. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the US East and West coasts was 350,000 TEU in June, 243,400 TEU in May, 359,000 TEU in July, and 299,000 TEU in August [3]. - The monthly average weekly capacity from Shanghai to European base ports was 261,900 TEU in July and 269,900 TEU in August. There were 8 blank sailings in July (5 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 2 blank sailings in August (both by the OA Alliance). The capacity in July decreased compared to the previous week's statistics mainly because the MSC (ALBATROS) route skipped Shanghai from week 28 to week 31, with the previously allocated ship capacity being about 15,000 TEU [4]. - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 28, 2025, 135 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. Among them, 41 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 615,000 TEU, and 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU [7]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors include Iran's indecision on whether to hold nuclear negotiations with the US and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's meeting with US President Trump at the White House on July 7 [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - There is no specific content directly related to demand and European economy analysis in the provided text other than the above - mentioned freight rate and capacity information which is also affected by demand and economic factors.
FICC日报:6月交割结算价格确定,关注马士基7月下半月第一周报价情况-20250701
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 03:41
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The settlement price for the June contract is determined, and attention should be paid to Maersk's first - week quotation in the second half of July. There is a possibility that the freight rate peaked in the first half of July, and the EC2410 contract in the off - season can be sold for hedging when the price is high [1][3][5] - Geopolitically, China will accelerate rare - earth exports to the US, and the US will cancel a series of restrictive measures against China. The freight rates on the US routes are stabilizing after a decline from their high levels [2] - The freight rates on the Shanghai - Europe routes are in a state of correction in the first half of July, and there is a game about when the freight rate will peak in the August contract [4][5] - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries [7] - The trading strategy includes a volatile main contract in the unilateral market and a long - December, short - October strategy in the arbitrage market [7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of July 1, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 86,515 lots, and the daily trading volume is 46,152 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1307.80, 1169.80, 1888.50, 1761.40, 1339.00, and 1500.00 respectively [6] 2. Spot Price - On the online quotation for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route: Maersk's price in the second week of July is 1740/2900 (down $200/FEU from the previous period and now up to 1770/2960); HPL's quotation for the first half of July is 2035/3235, and for the second half is 2435/3835. Other shipping companies also have corresponding quotations [1] - For the Shanghai - US East and West routes, Maersk's Shanghai - Los Angeles price in the second week of the first half of July is 1586/2245 (compared to 4296/5360 in the first half of June), and the Shanghai - New York price is $4120/FEU (compared to $6410/FEU in the first half of June) [2] - The SCFIS on June 16, 23, and 30 are 1697.63, 1937.14, and 2123.24 points respectively, and the June contract settlement price is 1919.34 points [3] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The average weekly capacity on the Shanghai - European base port route in July is 261,900 TEU, and in August is 269,900 TEU. There are 8 blank sailings in July and 2 in August. The decrease in capacity in July is mainly due to the skipping of Shanghai ports by MSC's ALBATROS route [3] - As of June 28, 2025, 135 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. Among them, 41 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 615,000 TEU and 6 ships over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU have been delivered [7] 4. Supply Chain No specific content for in - depth summary is provided other than the list of related figures. 5. Demand and European Economy No specific content for in - depth summary is provided other than the list of related figures.
马士基7月第二周报价下调,关注其他船司跟随情况-20250625
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 05:10
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rates in the first half of July were revised, and the August contract is in a game to determine the specific time when the freight rates will peak. However, there is a possibility that the freight rates peaked in the first half of July. Considering Maersk's rate cut in the second week of July, there is an expectation that the prices in the first half of July have already peaked. Due to the unclear peak - time of Shanghai - Europe route freight rates, it is necessary to pay attention to Maersk's actual quotation in the first week of the second half of July [5][6]. - The supply and demand of the US route both increased, with supply recovering rapidly. The freight rates from Shanghai to the East and West of the US have fallen from their highs. The conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, and the risk of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been basically eliminated. It is expected that the direct impact on the global container shipping market is relatively small [2][3]. - The 6 - month contract is approaching delivery. The estimated final delivery settlement price of SCFIS is between 1890 - 1911 points, and ship delays are expected to drag down the SCFIS on June 30 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of June 25, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 94,675 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 101,361 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1306.60, 1151.00, 1888.10, 1772.00, 1304.60, and 1457.50 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - On June 16, the SCFIS was 1697.63 points; on June 23, it was 1937.14 points; on June 30, the corresponding spot price was between 2900 - 3000 US dollars, equivalent to 2030 - 2100 points of SCFIS. The estimated final delivery settlement price of SCFIS is between 1890 - 1911 points [4]. - For the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, different shipping companies have different price quotes. For example, Maersk's price in the first week of July decreased from 3400 US dollars/FEU to 3160 US dollars/FEU, and then dropped to 2900 US dollars/FEU in the second week. PA Alliance's average price is around 3300 US dollars/FEU, and OA Alliance's average price is around 3600 US dollars/FEU [1][6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - European base port in July was 279,500 TEU, and in August it was 271,300 TEU. There were a total of 8 blank sailings in July, including 5 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the PA Alliance [3]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 20, 2025, 128 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.018 million TEU [7]. 4. Supply Chain - The conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, and the risk of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been basically eliminated. Although the Strait of Hormuz is a key node for global oil trade, the direct impact on the global container shipping market is relatively small because the Middle East is not the core hub of global container trade [3]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The supply and demand of the US route both increased. Due to the expected decline in demand caused by Sino - US trade tariffs in April and May, carriers withdrew capacity from the transpacific east - bound route faster than during the pandemic. Recently, with the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the demand for the Sino - US route has increased rapidly, and carriers are actively restoring capacity [2].