1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, with the settlement price being the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The upper - half of October has seen a downward shift in the freight rate center, and the uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of the price increase in the lower - half of October [4]. - For the December contract, as it is far from delivery, trading focuses more on the rhythm. With Western holidays in the fourth quarter, the shipping volume is expected to remain high, but the risk lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline and the potential impact of the transfer of US - bound ships to the European line [5]. - The strategy suggests shorting the October contract on rallies and expecting the December contract to be range - bound with an upward bias, and there is no arbitrage strategy at present [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes show that the rates of some shipping companies have fluctuated. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes increased in WEEK42, and HPL - SPOT's prices are set to rise in the lower - half of October and November [1]. - Different shipping alliances have different price trends. The MSC + Premier Alliance, Ocean Alliance, etc., have their own price quotes for different time periods and routes [2]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Capacity Information - Geopolitically, Iran's intelligence department has obtained a large amount of valuable information about Israel's nuclear projects [3]. - The weekly average capacity of the China - European base port in October is 272,600 TEU, and in November it is 285,200 TEU. There are 15 blank sailings in October and 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: The freight rate center in the upper - half of October has dropped to around $1400/FEU. The SCFIS on October 13th is expected to be between 1000 - 1050 points, and the estimate for October 20th is similar. If the price increase in the lower - half of October is successful, the final settlement price may correspond to SCFIS of about 1130 - 1150 points; if it fails, the settlement price may be between 1000 - 1050 points [4]. - **December Contract**: Traders should focus on the rhythm. The shipping volume is expected to be high due to Western holidays, but the weak US - bound demand and potential ship transfers may affect the European line prices. The trading rhythm is expected to involve trading the price increase expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters [5]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Prices - As of September 24, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 82,002 lots, and the daily trading volume is 79,474 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc., are provided [6]. - The SCFI prices for different routes (Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East) and SCFIS prices for European and US West routes as of September 19th and 15th are given [6]. 3.5 Container Ship Capacity Supply - 202 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of September 21, 2025, 196 container ships with a total capacity of 1.562 million TEU have been delivered, including 62 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU with a total capacity of 935,000 TEU and 8 ships of over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [6].

FICC日报 | 2025-09-24 船司10月下半月尝试挺价，关注MSC以及马士基下半月报价 情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹40周报价875/1470，41周报价840/1400；HPL -SPOT 9月下半月价格 935/1435，10月上半月价格935/1435，10月下半月价格1235/2035；11月上半月价格1535/2535. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 9月下半月船期报价890/1490，10月上半月价格890/1490；ONE 10月上半月船期报 价915/1435；HMM上海-鹿特丹10月上半月船期报价968/1506; YML 9月22日至10月15日报价850/1300。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价1010/1620，10月上半月船期报价1010/1620;CMA上海-安特 卫普10月下半月尝试挺价，价格为1460/2520。EMC 9月份下半月以及10月上半月船期价格介于1400-1710；OOCL 9月份下半月以及10月上半月船期价格介于1400-1450美元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The price of Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam route continued to decline in the first week of October, and the freight rate center continued to move down [1]. - For the October contract, it is relatively safe to be short - allocated as the driver is downward, but the key lies in the downward space, and the uncertainty lies in the second half of October [4]. - For the December contract, the pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists. After the freight rate bottom becomes clear, long - allocation can be gradually carried out to trade the expected price increase by shipping companies for November and December [5]. - For far - month contracts, attention should be paid to the recent Trump tariff risk, which, if implemented, will have a great impact on the demand of the European line and be negative for the prices of the December contract and far - month contracts [6]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Online quotes show that the prices of various shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route have different degrees of decline. For example, Maersk's prices in weeks 38 - 40 decreased, and the prices of other companies such as HPL, MSC, and ONE also changed [1]. - Geopolitically, Israel's large - scale ground offensive in the Gaza Strip may affect the shipping market, with nearly 400,000 people having left Gaza City [2]. - The weekly average container ship capacity from China to European base ports in October is 278,000 TEU, with 15 blank sailings and 1 TBN in October and 3 blank sailings and 6 TBN in November. HPL has announced two additional ships in October [3]. Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: It is mainly short - allocated in the off - peak season, and the valuation continues to be revised down. The delivery and settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The current market price center in the second half of September has dropped to around $1500/FEU. The two additional ships announced by HPL may put pressure on the spot price in October [4]. - **December Contract**: In normal years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. After the freight rate bottom becomes clear, long - allocation can be carried out to trade the expected price increase. However, there are risks such as the bottom of the current freight rate decline and the possible transfer of US - line ships to the European line [5]. - **Far - month Contracts**: Trump's call for NATO to impose a 50% - 100% tariff on China may have a great impact on the European line demand and be negative for the December contract and far - month contracts [6]. Other Information - As of September 16, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 83,629.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 57,388.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided [6]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of September 14, 2025, 186 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.495 million TEU [7]. - Strategies include a weak - oscillating main contract for the unilateral strategy and shorting the October contract for the arbitrage strategy [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 10 - month contract is mainly short - allocated in the off - season, with its valuation continuing to be revised downwards. The uncertainty lies in the second half of October. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, and recently, one can bet on the price increase expectation in November. The far - month contracts should pay attention to the recent Trump tariff risk [4][5][6]. - The strategy includes a weakly fluctuating main contract for unilateral trading and shorting the 10 - month contract on rallies for arbitrage [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of September 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index Europe route futures is 83,189.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 31,407.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1516.90, 1253.90, 1431.90, 1603.70, 1163.10, and 1656.20 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from various shipping alliances are provided, such as Gemini Cooperation (Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam prices in weeks 38 and 39, HPL - SPOT prices in late September and early October), MSC + Premier Alliance (MSC, ONE, HMM, YML prices), and Ocean Alliance (CMA, EMC, OOCL prices). As of late September, the central price has dropped to around 1500 - 1600 US dollars/FEU (equivalent to about 1050 - 1120 points of SCFIS) [1][2][4]. - On September 12, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1154 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2370 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3307 US dollars/FEU. On September 15, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1440.24 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1349.84 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From September to November 2025, the weekly average capacity of China - European basic ports shows different levels. There are 15 blank sailings and 1 TBN in October and 3 blank sailings and 6 TBN in November. HPL has announced two additional vessels in October [3]. - As of September 14, 2025, 186 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.495 million TEU. Among them, 59 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 886,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [7]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events, such as Israel's stance on the Hamas leadership in Qatar, may have an impact on the supply chain [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand in the US line is weak, with the US NRF estimating that the container import demand in the US from September to December will decline by about 20% compared with the same period in 2024. In the off - season of shipping, the demand is generally low, but in the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays, the shipping volume usually remains at a high level [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate center continues to decline, and attention should be paid to Maersk's price offer in the first week of October next week [1]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, with its valuation continuing to decline, and the uncertainty lies in the second half of October [6][7]. - The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists for the 12 - month contract. Recently, the expectation of price increase in November can be speculated on, but the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline [8]. - The main contract is oscillating weakly on a single - side basis, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on an arbitrage basis [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for routes such as Shanghai - Rotterdam. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 38 is 1055/1770, and in week 39 it is 950/1590. HPL - SPOT's price in the second half of September and the first half of October is 935/1535. Maersk's PSS for the Far East - Nordic region drops to 50/100 [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Israel launched an attack on Hamas' senior political leaders in Doha, Qatar, which further escalated the conflict. Qatar condemned the attack, stating that it blatantly violated international law [3]. 3.2 Static Supply - As of September 7, 2025, 182 container ships with a total capacity of 1.472 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 58 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 873,200 TEU, and 9 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 194,840 TEU have been delivered. From 2025 - 2028, there is still significant supply - side pressure, especially in 2027, 2028, and 2029 when the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU exceeds 35 [4]. 3.3 Dynamic Supply - MSC and the Gemini Alliance have announced blank sailings during the Chinese Golden Week. In September, there were 4 blank sailings and 0 TBNs, while in October, there were 10 blank sailings and 6 TBNs. HPL has announced two additional ships for October, which may put pressure on the spot price in October [5]. 3.4 Contracts Analysis - **10 - Month Contract**: It is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, with its valuation continuing to decline. The normal price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. The current market price center in the first half of October is around 1600 US dollars/FEU, and there is a possibility of further decline. The uncertainty lies in the second half of October. If the price increase is successful in the second half of October, the optimistic valuation ceiling of the 10 - month contract may be around 1200 points; otherwise, it may be lower than 1100 points [6][7]. - **12 - Month Contract**: The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists. Normally, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October. With the approach of Western holidays in the fourth quarter, shipping companies may adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline, and if ships from the US line are transferred to the European line, it may put pressure on European line prices [8]. 3.5 Strategy - **Single - side**: The main contract is oscillating weakly. - **Arbitrage**: Short the 10 - month contract [10]. 3.6 Futures and Spot Prices - As of September 11, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 83,647 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 45,107 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. are provided. The SCFI and SCFIS prices of different routes are also given [9].

FICC日报 | 2025-09-11 运价中枢继续下修，马士基WEEK39周报价开出 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹38周价格1050/1760，39周报价1550美元/FEU；HPL -SPOT 9月下半月价 格935/1535，10月上半月价格935/1535。马士基远东-北欧地区PSS降为50/100. 地缘端： 一名以色列官员表示，以色列对哈马斯在卡塔尔首都多哈的高级政治领导人发动了袭击，在以色列加大 对加沙地带的攻势之际，以色列对该组织的打击进一步升级。以色列官员称，美国总统特朗普已批准对卡塔尔的 哈马斯领导人发动袭击。卡塔尔是美国在该地区的重要合作伙伴，但哈马斯的政治领导人在那里设有办公室和住 所。目前尚不清楚是否有人在袭击中丧生。以色列国防部长卡茨早些时候警告海外的哈马斯领导人，如果该组织 不放下武器，他们将被歼灭。卡塔尔方面表示，这次袭击公然违反了所有国际法，谴责以色列在多哈发动针对哈 马斯官员的"懦弱"袭击。 静态供给：交付现状层面，截至2025年9月7日。2025年至今交付集装箱船舶182艘，合计交付运力147.2万TEU。 12000 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Maersk has lowered its freight rate to $1700/FEU, and the freight rates of other shipping companies are also following suit. The overall freight rate center in September has dropped to around $2000/FEU, and the cargo collection pressure is relatively high. [1][4] - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation as the freight rate center continues to decline. With the release of HPL's two additional vessels in October, it is expected to put pressure on the spot price in October. [4] - The December contract still follows the pattern of peak and off - peak seasons. However, the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. If ships from the US line are diverted to the European line in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European line prices. [5] - The main contract of container shipping index futures is oscillating weakly, and it is advisable to short the October contract when the price is high. [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different freight rate quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's 37 - week price for Shanghai - Rotterdam is $1175/1970, and the 38 - week price is $1025/1710. [1] - **Geopolitical Situation**: On September 2, local time, the Israeli military stated that it would intensify its military operations in the Gaza Strip. [2] - **Blank Sailings and Additional Vessels**: MSC has announced blank sailings during the Chinese Golden Week, with a total of about 59,000 TEU of capacity affected. HPL has announced two additional vessels in October, with a total capacity of about 11,500 TEU. [3] 2. Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: The delivery and settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. In normal years, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the freight rate center has dropped, and short - allocation is relatively safe. [4] - **December Contract**: In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays and shipping companies' preparations for long - term contract negotiations, the freight rate is usually higher. However, the risk is the bottom of the current freight rate decline. [5] 3. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of September 2, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts vary. For example, the EC2602 contract closed at 1550.10, and the EC2510 contract closed at 1340.70. [6] - **Spot Prices**: On August 29, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1481.00/TEU, and on September 1, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1773.60 points. [6] 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 31, 2025, 180 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.452 million TEU. [7] 5. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract is oscillating weakly. [7] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the October contract when the price is high. [7]

航运日报 | 2025-08-28 运价中枢持续下修，关注其他船司运价调整情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹36周价格1315/2210，37周价格开出为1140/1900（目前已经涨至 1155/1930）；HPL -SPOT 9月上半月船期报价1185/1935，9月下半月价格1185/1935。马士基远东-北欧地区PSS降为 50/100. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 9月上半月船期报价1406/2352；ONE9月上半月船期报价1504/2343；HMM上海-鹿 特丹9月上半月船期报价1315/2200; YML9月上半月报价1350/2200。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹9月1日-6日船期报价1410/2420，9月6日-20日船期报价1310/2220；EMC 9月份 船期价格1605/2410；OOCL 9月上半月船期价格2100-2200美元/FEU。 地缘端：以色列总理内塔尼亚胡：以色列对今天发生在加沙纳赛尔医院的这起悲剧性事故深感遗憾。 特朗普：与 内塔尼亚胡打交道相当棘手。预计未来2到3周 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of Maersk's quotes continued to decline in the second week of September, and attention should be paid to whether other shipping companies will follow suit [1] - The freight rate of the October contract is mainly short - allocated, and the freight rate center continues to decline. The freight rate in October is usually 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Attention should be paid to the price - following situation of other shipping companies after Maersk's freight rate drops to $1900/FEU [5] - The seasonality of the December contract still exists, but the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. If ships from the US line are transferred to the European line in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European line prices [6][7] - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. For arbitrage, it is advisable to go short on the October contract [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Prices - As of August 26, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 79,739 lots, and the daily trading volume was 34,224 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, and EC2602 contracts were $1273.10, $1416.60, $1627.90, $1318.90, $1643.90, and $1469.30 respectively [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - On August 15, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe) was $1668/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West) was $1644/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was $2613/FEU. On August 18, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1990.20 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1041.38 points. The final settlement price of the August contract was 2135.28 points [4][8] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In August 2025, the remaining one - week capacity from China to European base ports was 308,400 TEU. The weekly average capacity in September was 310,600 TEU, and that in October was 282,300 TEU. The capacity in September will increase, and the blank sailings of the PA alliance in September have been filled. HPL has announced two additional ships for October [4] - As of August 22, 2025, 177 container ships with a total capacity of 1.432 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 57 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 859,000 TEU) and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (total 176,880 TEU) have been delivered [9] 3.4 Supply Chain - Not provided in the given content 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Not provided in the given content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate center continues to decline, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the second week of September [1]. - The 8 - month contract has seen the top of the freight rate, and the continuous decline in freight rates brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The estimated final delivery settlement price is around 2100 points [4]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, and the freight rate center continues to move down. It is relatively safe to short - allocate, but the key lies in the downward space. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [5][6]. - The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, and the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. If it reopens, the seasonal pattern may be challenged [6]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. The unilateral strategy is that the main contract fluctuates weakly, and the arbitrage strategy is to short the 10 - month contract on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for different routes and time periods. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 36 is 1300/2180, and Maersk's PSS in the Far East - Nordic region has dropped to 50/100 [1]. - Geopolitical situation: Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu has approved the plan for the Israeli Defense Forces to take over Gaza City and instructed to start cease - fire negotiations, while Hamas senior officials believe he is the main obstacle. Saudi Crown Prince and Egyptian President oppose Israel's military occupation of Gaza [2]. 3.2 Shipping Capacity - Weekly and monthly average shipping capacities from China to European base ports in different months are provided. There are also details about overtime ships in August and planned overtime ships in October. For example, in August, Maersk added two overtime ships, and HPL announced two overtime ships in October [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - 8 - month contract: The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25. The estimated final price is around 2100 points [4]. - 10 - month contract: It is a quarterly contract, mainly for short - allocation. The freight rate center is moving down, and it is expected that Maersk's week 37 quote will continue to decline, possibly below 2000 US dollars/FEU. The two overtime ships announced by HPL in October may also put pressure on the spot price [5]. - 12 - month contract: In normal years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. The risk is whether the Suez Canal will reopen [6]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Prices - As of August 21, 2025, the total positions of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures are 79,540.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 45,149.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. Spot prices such as SCFI and SCFIS for different routes are also given [7]. 3.5 Container Ship Delivery - In 2025 so far, 167 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 1.318 million TEU. As of August 15, 2025, 51 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered [8]. 3.6 Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates weakly. - Arbitrage: Short the 10 - month contract on rallies [8].