Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Most commodities are expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short term, with some showing potential for decline or upside. Amid uncertainties in tariffs and changing policies, investors are advised to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to market conditions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - For stock index futures, it's recommended to hold a light position and wait for a clear market direction. Due to high overseas uncertainties during the May Day holiday and low option volatility, consider a double - buy strategy for stock index options before the holiday [1]. - The bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Gold is in short - term oscillation adjustment, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper has decent downstream demand, but there is a risk of price correction due to trade frictions [1]. - Aluminum prices oscillate due to uncertainties in global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina's supply - demand pattern has improved, with limited downside but lack of upward momentum [1]. - Zinc has support from low near - month inventory but faces fundamental suppression, presenting short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices oscillate after bottom - up repair. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowon nickel and beware of policy changes [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see, and the industrial side should focus on policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - Tin has a risk of supply premium disappearing as the复产 expectation in Low - Bang strengthens [1]. Industrial and Energy - Related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a state of oversupply, with demand not improving and inventory pressure not relieved [1]. - Polysilicon's抢装潮 is ending, with demand expected to decline in the second half of the year. There is a need for a rebound after a large short - term decline [1]. - Carbonate lithium has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, with downstream maintaining just - in - time purchases [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil face downward pressure on opening prices due to trade disputes [1]. - Iron ore is under short - term pressure due to tariff policies and market sentiment [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron oscillate, with cost and supply - demand factors at play [1]. - Glass and soda ash face supply - demand imbalances, with prices under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and industrial customers can seize hedging opportunities [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by weather and market sentiment, and it's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [1]. - Cotton prices may be affected by the trend of crude oil and the substitution effect between chemical fiber and cotton [1]. - Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply shortages and domestic high inventory [1]. - Corn may have a correction risk after the hype cools down, with a long - term bullish logic [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly, and M09 is recommended to be bought at low prices [1]. Forestry and Livestock - Pulp is recommended to be short - sold or hedged due to weak cost support and entering the off - season [1]. - Logs have high inventory and no short - term positive factors, expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Pigs have a clear downward expectation in the futures market due to increased supply and lack of downstream highlights [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as tariffs, OPEC + policies, and cost - demand relationships [1]. - Rubber products such as natural rubber and BR rubber oscillate, with weak fundamentals [1]. - PTA is bearish due to device maintenance and weak market sentiment [1]. - Ethylene glycol, styrene, urea, methanol, PE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand and market sentiment factors affecting their price trends [1]. Others - For the container shipping European line, the peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Sideways [1] - L: Bearish [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] - Soda ash: Sideways [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Urea: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The trade policy uncertainty and OPEC+ production increase lead to a weak oil price, while the upcoming trade peak season strengthens the short - term downside support [2]. - LPG follows the oil price for consolidation, with short - term cost support but weak strength [7]. - For L, the high - operation of devices, abundant supply, and weakening demand result in a bearish outlook [10]. - PP shows a short - term support due to high parking ratio and weak supply - demand, but a bearish long - term outlook [13]. - PVC has a cost - supported low - level sideways movement, and short - term wait - and - see is recommended [16]. - PX has an improved April fundamental and is currently fluctuating with cost, showing a bullish sideways trend [18]. - PTA has reduced supply pressure, but the downstream polyester is expected to weaken, with a short - term bullish trend and opportunities to short at high levels [22]. - Ethylene glycol has a high arrival volume and expected weakening demand, with limited cost support and a bearish short - term adjustment [24]. - Glass has a stable low - level supply, seasonal demand improvement, but high inventory restricts the short - term rebound [27]. - Soda ash has a short - term warm sideways movement due to reduced supply, but a bearish mid - term outlook due to new capacity [1]. - Methanol has a large supply pressure, weakening demand, and weak cost support, with a bearish short - term outlook [29]. - Urea has a large supply pressure and weak demand, but fast - growing fertilizer exports, with a bearish outlook and opportunities to go long on pullbacks [33]. - Asphalt has a high crack spread and a bearish rebound, with a weak and sideways cost - end oil price [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined (WTI down 1.54%, Brent down 1.53%), while domestic SC rose 0.06% [2]. - **Supply**: As of April 25, the number of active US oil rigs increased by 2 to 483. Kazakhstan's March oil production decreased by about 3% to 62.7 barrels per day [2]. - **Demand**: In April, Russia's supply of ESPO blended oil to Indian ports increased to about 400,000 tons (about 100,000 barrels per day) [2]. - **Inventory**: As of April 18, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2 million barrels to 443.1 million barrels, and strategic crude oil reserve increased by 5 million barrels to 397.5 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Long - term price range is $55 - 65, short - term is weak, and SC focuses on [480 - 500] [3]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On April 28, the main PG contract closed at 4,395 yuan/ton, down 0.25% [5][6]. - **Supply**: As of April 25, the total LPG commodity volume was 515,500 tons, up 2,300 tons [7]. - **Demand**: As of April 25, the开工 rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil decreased by 3.09pct, 2.18pct, and 0.51pct respectively [7]. - **Inventory**: As of April 25, refinery inventory was 163,200 tons, down 1,000 tons, and port inventory was 2.8402 million tons, up 175,700 tons [7]. - **Strategy**: Long - term cost support is weak, follow the oil price for consolidation, and conduct PG05 - 06 positive spread operation and sell call options. PG focuses on [4350 - 4450] [7]. 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: L09 (main contract) closed at 7,164 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [9]. - **Supply**: New production capacity of 2.08 million tons has been put into operation this year, and the LLDPE, LDPE film, and HDPE film import windows are closed [10]. - **Demand**: The agricultural film season is ending, and demand is gradually weakening [10]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.9% to 530,000 tons [9]. - **Strategy**: Go short at high levels, and L focuses on [7080 - 7200] [10]. 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: PP09 (main contract) closed at 7,112 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [12]. - **Supply**: Baofeng's 1 million tons/year PP device was successfully put into operation in the first quarter, and attention is paid to the commissioning progress of Zhongjing Petrochemical's 1.5 million tons/year PDH device [13]. - **Demand**: Product exports are under pressure due to tariff disturbances [13]. - **Inventory**: PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.4% to 600,000 tons [12]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, mid - term short at high levels, and PP focuses on [7050 - 7150] [13]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: V09 (main contract) closed at 4,989 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [15]. - **Supply**: Xinpu Chemical's 500,000 - ton device was put into operation in January, and the capacity utilization rate is 79% [16]. - **Demand**: The decline in real - estate completion area narrows, and downstream开工率 decreases seasonally [16]. - **Inventory**: PVC仓单 decreased by 0.3% to 29,653 [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, go long on pullbacks, and V focuses on [4920 - 5060] [16]. 3.6 PX - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of PX in East China was 6,600 yuan/ton (flat), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,230 yuan/ton (+64) [17]. - **Supply**: Many domestic and overseas PX devices are under maintenance, with the weekly output of 647,000 tons, down 7,000 tons [18]. - **Demand**: PTA device maintenance is high, and the demand is expected to weaken [18]. - **Inventory**: In March, PX inventory was at a high level in the same period, and the number of warehouse receipts was 1,064, lower than the same period [18]. - **Strategy**: PX focuses on [6220 - 6320] [19]. 3.7 PTA - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,490 yuan/ton (+62), and the TA09 contract closed at 4,400 yuan/ton (+30) [20][21]. - **Supply**: Many PTA devices are under maintenance, with a weekly output of 1.393 million tons, up 55,000 tons [22]. - **Demand**: The downstream polyester is expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high [22]. - **Inventory**: PTA social inventory decreased to 4.804 million tons in March, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [22]. - **Strategy**: TA focuses on [4420 - 4520], and pay attention to shorting at high levels [22]. 3.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,184 yuan/ton (-32), and the EG09 contract closed at 4,160 yuan/ton (-19) [23]. - **Supply**: Many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance, with a high expected arrival volume of 248,000 tons [24]. - **Demand**: The downstream polyester is expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high [24]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased slightly, and port inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy**: EG focuses on [4150 - 4220] [25]. 3.9 Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot market quotation is regionally differentiated, the futures is at a low - level sideways movement, the main contract basis narrows, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases [27]. - **Supply**: The glass supply remains stable at a low level, and the cold - repair plan of manufacturers slows down after the cost decreases [27]. - **Demand**: The demand shows a seasonal improvement but is lower than the same period, and the real - estate industry has not stabilized [27]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory increased by 395,000 heavy boxes to 65.473 million heavy boxes, up 0.61% [27]. - **Strategy**: FG focuses on [1100 - 1140] [27]. 3.10 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The spot market quotation is regionally differentiated, the futures is at a low - level sideways movement [1]. - **Supply**: There are many maintenance plans, and the supply is expected to decrease [1]. - **Demand**: No specific demand - related content mentioned in the provided documents. - **Inventory**: The alkali plant inventory decreases slightly [1]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy content other than the price range in the provided documents. 3.11 Methanol - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,413 yuan/ton (+5), and the main 09 contract closed at 2,288 yuan/ton (-1) [29]. - **Supply**: Domestic and overseas methanol devices are under maintenance, but the supply pressure is still large, and the import is expected to increase in May [29]. - **Demand**: The demand of MTO devices is expected to weaken, and the traditional downstream demand is in the off - season [29]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of methanol decreases slightly to 773,000 tons [29]. - **Strategy**: MA focuses on [2260 - 2310], and go short on rebounds [29][30]. 3.12 Urea - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,830 yuan/ton (flat), and the main contract closed at 1,757 yuan/ton (-1) [32]. - **Supply**: The maintenance devices are gradually restarted, with a high daily output, and the supply pressure is large [33]. - **Demand**: It is the off - season for agricultural fertilization, and the industrial demand is weak, but fertilizer exports are growing fast [33]. - **Inventory**: The inventory accumulates, with the factory inventory at 1.065 million tons and the port inventory at 117,000 tons [33]. - **Strategy**: The price range of UR is [1760 - 1790], and pay attention to going long on pullbacks [33]. 3.13 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: No specific recent market performance content mentioned other than the price range in the provided documents. - **Supply**: No specific supply - related content mentioned in the provided documents. - **Demand**: No specific demand - related content mentioned in the provided documents. - **Inventory**: Both social and factory inventories are increasing [1]. - **Strategy**: The price range of BU is [3400 - 3500], and go short on rebounds [1].