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中辉能化观点-20250922
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 06:01
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [4] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [4] Core Views - Oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing, with oversupply remaining the core driver. Short - term geopolitical disturbances have less impact, and the downward pressure on oil prices is significant [1]. - Cost - side oil prices are weakening, downstream chemical开工率 is declining, and LPG is expected to remain bearish [1]. - Cost support is weak, previously shut - down devices are resuming operation, and the upward driving force for L is insufficient despite strong supply and demand [1]. - High maintenance cannot offset high expansion in the PP market, and the peak season is under - performing expectations. The spot market is weak, and the basis is at a low level [1]. - Cost support for PVC has improved, and exports remain strong. Although the fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, there is a rebound due to high - level decline in warehouse receipts [1]. - Supply - side and demand - side changes in PX lead to a looser expectation of tight balance, and it is oscillating weakly under macro - pressure [30]. - For PTA, the expected increase in device maintenance will ease supply - side pressure, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is under - performing, and the demand side is weak [34]. - Domestic ethylene glycol devices have slightly increased their load, overseas devices have changed little, and the consumption season is under - performing, but low inventory provides some support [39]. - Methanol's supply - side pressure remains large, but the demand side has improved, and the cost support is stabilizing. There is limited downward space [42]. - Urea has strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation, and the fundamentals remain weak [47]. - US natural gas inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, causing gas prices to weaken, but the need for winter gas storage provides some support [4]. - Cost - side oil prices are weakening, and asphalt supply and demand are generally loose, with high valuation [4]. - The glass market has a strong supply pressure, and the peak - season demand provides short - term support, but the medium - and long - term pattern is loose [4]. - The demand for soda ash has slightly improved, but the supply is expected to remain loose in the medium - and long - term [4]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 0.69%, Brent down 1.52%, and SC down 0.70% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical risks have declined, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. US crude oil inventory has decreased more than expected in the short term, but there is a long - term oversupply risk [6]. As of September 12, US net imports decreased, exports increased, and commercial crude inventory decreased [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells around $60. SC focuses on the range of [480 - 490] [8]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PG main contract closed at 4368 yuan/ton, down 0.73% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - side oil supply exceeds demand, and downstream chemical profits have declined, with reduced开工率. Supply has increased, and inventory has risen [11]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. PG focuses on the range of [4250 - 4350] [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7169 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support is weak, devices are resuming operation, and supply is increasing. The peak season for shed films has begun, and demand support is strengthening, but the upward driving force is insufficient [17]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to basis repair and wait for dips to go long. L focuses on the range of [7100 - 7200] [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6914 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - side oil is weak, high expansion outweighs high maintenance, and the peak season is disappointing. The basis is at a low level, and downstream demand is slowly increasing [22]. - **Strategy**: The industry can hedge on rallies. PP focuses on the range of [6850 - 7000] [22]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4950 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [25]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support has improved, exports are strong, and warehouse receipts have decreased. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and social inventory has increased for 13 consecutive weeks [27]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips due to low valuation. V focuses on the range of [4900 - 5050] [27]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 19, PX spot price was 6773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan. The main contract's trading volume and open interest increased [30]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side devices have slightly increased their load, and demand - side PTA may have more maintenance in the future. Inventory is high, and PXN is relatively high this year. Macro - factors put pressure on prices [30]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously and sell call options. PX511 focuses on the range of [6525 - 6630] [31]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 19, PTA in East China was 4555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan. The TA01 contract closed at 4604 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan [33]. - **Fundamentals**: Device maintenance is expected to increase, easing supply - side pressure. The "Golden September and Silver October" season is under - performing, and demand is weak. Inventory is decreasing [34]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for opportunities to expand PTA processing fees [2]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The EG01 contract closed at 4317 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [38]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic devices have slightly increased their load, overseas devices have changed little, and the consumption season is under - performing. Low inventory provides some support [39]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for opportunities to short on rallies. EG01 focuses on the range of [4230 - 4270] [40]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [41]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and overseas device load has slightly decreased. Demand has improved, and inventory accumulation has slowed down. Cost support is stabilizing [42]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract. MA01 focuses on the range of [2340 - 2380] [44]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton. The main contract closed at 1661 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [46]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and cost support is expected to weaken [47]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions and sell call options. Focus on the range of [1645 - 1665] [49]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: As of the week ending September 12, US natural gas inventory increased by 90 billion cubic feet to 2433 billion cubic feet [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, causing gas prices to weaken, but the need for winter gas storage provides some support [4]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - side oil prices are weakening, and asphalt supply and demand are generally loose, with high valuation [4]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is strong, and the peak - season demand provides short - term support, but the medium - and long - term pattern is loose [4]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long, medium - and long - term short on rallies [4]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - **Fundamentals**: Demand has slightly improved, but the supply is expected to remain loose in the medium - and long - term [4]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long, medium - and long - term short on rallies [4].
中辉能化观点-20250917
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 02:54
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Bullish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [4] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bullish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish rebound [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish rebound [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances boost oil prices, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate policy decision. Supply - demand imbalances and OPEC+ production increases are key factors affecting the energy market. Different chemical products have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [1][8][13] - For most products, the market is influenced by a combination of macro factors such as Fed rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, and seasonal demand changes. Some products are in a state of supply - demand tight balance, while others face supply or demand - side pressures [3][33][37] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices rose overnight. WTI increased by 0.82%, Brent by 1.53%, and SC by 1.02%. The Brent - WTI spread widened to $4.65 per barrel [6][7] - **Basic Logic**: The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict and attacks on Russian oil facilities support short - term oil prices. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, and the end of the US crude oil consumption season leads to inventory accumulation, putting pressure on oil prices in the medium - to long - term [8] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC at [495 - 505] [10] LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 16, the PG main contract closed at 4,494 yuan per ton, down 0.42% [11][12] - **Basic Logic**: Although the cost - end oil price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, the upstream crude oil is in an oversupply situation. Chemical profit decline weakens demand, and inventory increases slightly [13] - **Strategy**: Add short positions. Focus on the range of PG at [4400 - 4500] [14] L - **Market Performance**: The L01 closing price was 7,209 yuan per ton, down 0.2% [17] - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment improves. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is gradually shifting to a situation of both strong supply and demand. The agricultural film peak season is approaching, and demand support strengthens [19] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pullbacks. Pay attention to the range of L at [7200 - 7350] [19] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP01 closing price was 6,939 yuan per ton, down 0.1% [22] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves. The PP parking ratio rises above 20%, reducing supply pressure. Downstream demand enters the peak season, and raw material demand gradually increases [24] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pullbacks as supply pressure eases. Focus on the range of PP at [6900 - 7050] [24] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 closing price was 4,847 yuan per ton, down 0.9% [27] - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment improves, and the price rebounds from a low level. The supply is strong and demand is weak, and inventory has been accumulating for 12 weeks. However, more device maintenance plans are expected to reduce production [29] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pullbacks supported by low valuation. Pay attention to the range of V at [4900 - 5050] [29] PX - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6,864 yuan per ton, up 7 yuan [32] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side device changes are limited. PTA device maintenance is short - term, and demand improves. PXN is at a relatively high level this year. OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical conflicts affect the market [33] - **Strategy**: Go long on short - term dips and gradually close short positions. Focus on the range of PX511 at [6725 - 6820] [34] PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,565 yuan per ton, down 55 yuan. The TA01 contract closed at 4,648 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan [36] - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low. New device production and the resumption of previous maintenance devices increase supply pressure. The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is expected to boost demand. Supply - demand is in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [37] - **Strategy**: Close short positions. Look for opportunities to expand PTA processing fees and go long on short - term dips [3] MEG - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,378 yuan per ton, down 44 yuan. The EG01 contract closed at 4,319 yuan per ton, down 31 yuan [40] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly reduce their load, and overseas devices change little. Import is low. There is a consumption season expectation, and demand improves. Inventory is low, but new device production expectations cause the market to fluctuate weakly [41] - **Strategy**: Close short positions and look for opportunities to go short on rallies. Focus on the range of EG01 at [4255 - 4300] [42] Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,317 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2,379 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan [44] - **Basic Logic**: Methanol device maintenance increases, and supply pressure is high. Demand shows signs of stopping decline. Social inventory accumulates, and cost support stabilizes [45][46] - **Strategy**: Do not short firmly. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of MA01 at [2365 - 2400] [47] Urea - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Short - term supply is tight, but long - term supply is expected to be loose. Domestic demand is weak, while exports are good. Inventory accumulates in factories and decreases in ports. Valuation is not high [4] - **Strategy**: The urea futures price is under pressure. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract in the medium - to long - term [4] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts drive up energy prices, and the approaching winter increases demand for natural gas [5] - **Strategy**: Cautiously bullish [5] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors boost the cost - end oil price, but asphalt supply is in excess, and the overall supply - demand is loose [5] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [5] Glass - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment improves, and enterprise inventory decreases. New production lines increase supply, and terminal demand is weak [5] - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish [5] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment improves, and enterprise inventory decreases for three consecutive times. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and supply pressure is expected to ease [5] - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish, medium - to long - term bearish on rebounds [5]
中辉期货日刊-20250520
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 03:17
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - LPG: Oscillating [1] - L: Oscillating [1] - PP: Weak [1] - PVC: Weak [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Oscillating [1] - Soda ash: Weak [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Urea: Cautiously long at low levels [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, with views ranging from bullish, bearish, to oscillating, based on various factors such as supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and cost - profit situations [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, with WTI up 0.27%, Brent up 0.20%, and SC up 0.07% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors and macro - economic factors are in a tug - of - war. Supply is affected by Russian export policies and global supply forecasts, while demand has stable growth. Inventory data shows changes in US commercial and strategic reserves [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term, prices will fluctuate between 55 - 65 dollars due to factors like trade wars and OPEC+ expansion. Short - term, it will stabilize and rebound, oscillating. SC to focus on [455 - 475] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On May 19, the PG main contract closed at 4264 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Upstream oil prices rebounded, but LPG fundamentals are bearish. Import costs decreased, downstream PDH开工率 declined, and port inventories increased. As of May 19, the number of warehouse receipts increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term, it is bearish as it is linked to upstream crude oil. Technically, pay attention to the strong support at 4200, and it will oscillate weakly. Hold short positions. PG to focus on [4240 - 4275] [8]. L - **Market Review**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 4 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short term, the cost support from crude oil may weaken. Supply pressure remains due to high social inventories despite upcoming device maintenance. Demand is in the off - season, but export orders may improve. In May, device maintenance and short - term export replenishment will lead to oscillating prices, while the high - production cycle will limit upward space in the medium term [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for short - selling opportunities. Pay attention to crude oil and coal prices and new capacity releases [11]. PP - **Market Review**: The L - PP09 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton day - on - day [13]. - **Basic Logic**: Policy support exists, but the market is constrained by supply - demand imbalance. In May, there are fewer device maintenance plans and new device launches, and demand is in the off - season. The market will be weakly sorted [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. Pay attention to crude oil and coal prices and new capacity releases [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 17 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot market is weak. Supply is expected to remain high, demand is in the off - season, and there is uncertainty in foreign trade policies. Warehouse receipts increased, real - estate data is weak, and device restarts may increase production. The market will oscillate weakly [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Participate in the short - term. Be aware of macro - systemic risks [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 6625 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX09 contract closed at 6744 yuan/ton (-18) [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX device maintenance plans have reduced supply pressure. However, PTA device maintenance has weakened demand. Although inventory is high, the fundamentals improved in May, and it will oscillate strongly following cost fluctuations [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX to focus on [6660, 6820] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 4995 yuan/ton (-35), and the TA09 contract closed at 4774 yuan/ton (-24) [21]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance has reduced supply pressure. Downstream polyester has high operating loads, and terminal weaving has recovered. Inventory has decreased, and the processing fee has room to increase. It will oscillate strongly following cost fluctuations [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy mentioned other than the price range [21]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Review**: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 4568 yuan/ton (-3), and the EG09 contract closed at 4460 yuan/ton (-1) [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has increased, reducing supply pressure. The expected arrival volume is low. Downstream polyester has high loads, and terminal weaving has recovered. Inventory has decreased slightly. It will oscillate strongly in the short term [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG to focus on [4410, 4500] [25]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market price decreased, the decline of the futures price slowed, the basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [27]. - **Basic Logic**: After the central bank's "double - cut" and the easing of Sino - US trade tariffs, the real - estate fundamentals weakened in April. The main contradiction is the imbalance between supply contraction and demand decline. With the arrival of the off - season, the spot market is weak. In the short term, it will fluctuate with macro - sentiment, and in the medium term, weak fundamentals will limit upward space [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG to focus on [1000, 1040] [28]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash remained unchanged, the futures price oscillated weakly, the main contract basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the number of valid forecasts increased [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply has decreased due to device maintenance, but new capacity expectations will lead to an oversupply situation. Demand is weak, and the inventory level is high. Although some enterprises' export orders increased, the high - inventory and low - demand situation will continue to suppress the market [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA to focus on [1260, 1290] [31]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On May 16, the spot price in East China was 2375 yuan/ton (-50), and the main contract 09 closed at 2284 yuan/ton (-36). The basis in East China and ports changed [32]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is high as device maintenance is ending and import expectations are being fulfilled. Demand has improved as MTO device开工率 has stopped falling. Social inventory has decreased, but cost support from coal is weak. Overall, the supply - demand is relatively loose, and it is bearish on rebounds [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA to focus on [2250, 2300] [34]. Urea - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in the provided text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is high as maintenance devices are restarting. It is the off - season for agricultural fertilization, but industrial demand is neutral, and export growth is fast. Cost fluctuates slightly, and there is bottom support. The export policy is bullish in the short term, but the upward space is limited [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously go long at low levels. Pay attention to the export quota policy and the "supply - guarantee and price - stability" principle. UR to focus on [1830 - 1880] [1]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in the provided text. - **Basic Logic**: Oil prices stabilized and rebounded, and both supply and demand increased. Bullish factors include rising oil prices, falling social inventory, and increasing开工率 of modified and building asphalt. Bearish factors are high cracking spreads and increasing supply. It will oscillate strongly [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: BU to focus on [3520 - 3565] [1].
中辉期货日刊-20250519
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 03:51
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral [1] - LPG: Neutral [1] - L: Neutral [1] - PP: Neutral [1] - PVC: Neutral [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Neutral [1] - Soda ash: Neutral [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is in a consolidation phase due to the balance between geopolitical easing and macro - economic improvement, with OPEC+ expansion capping the upside [1][2][3]. - LPG is in an oscillatory adjustment due to the rebound in crude oil cost and weak downstream demand [1][7]. - L is expected to trade in a range in the short - term, with the high - production cycle suppressing the rebound space in the medium - term [1][11]. - PP has a weak supply - demand pattern in the fundamentals, with a bearish outlook on rebounds [1][14]. - PVC is in a low - level oscillation, with high -开工 and weak domestic demand limiting the rebound height [1][17]. - PX is expected to be bullish in the short - term as the fundamentals continue to improve in May [1][19]. - PTA is expected to be bullish in the short - term, with supply pressure relieved, high downstream polyester load, and inventory reduction [1][22]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to be bullish in the short - term, with supply pressure relieved and demand relatively strong [1][25]. - Glass is oscillating around macro - economic sentiment, with a weak spot market suppressing the rebound space [1][29]. - Soda ash is in a low - level oscillation, facing high inventory and low demand, but with some support from supply reduction [1][32]. - Methanol has a relatively loose supply - demand situation and weak cost support, with a bearish outlook on rebounds [1][34]. - Urea has a relatively loose fundamental situation, with limited upside potential due to export policies and the "supply - guarantee and price - stability" principle [1]. - Asphalt is expected to be bullish in the short - term, with the rebound in oil price and increased demand, but with high valuation and sufficient supply [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **行情回顾**: On Friday, international oil prices stabilized and rebounded, with WTI rising 1.34%, Brent rising 1.41%, and SC falling 2.25% [2]. - **基本逻辑**: The recent oil price trend is mainly affected by the US - Iran negotiation and the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. Geopolitical factors are bearish, while macro - economic factors are bullish. Supply may slow down due to the current price drop, and demand growth is expected to increase slightly. Inventory data shows an increase in US commercial crude oil and strategic reserves, and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories [3]. - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ expansion, the oil price will fluctuate between $55 - 65. In the short - term, it will stabilize and rebound, with a focus on the range of [455 - 475] for SC [4]. LPG - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PG main contract closed at 4,280 yuan/ton, down 0.49% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased to varying degrees [6]. - **基本逻辑**: The upstream oil price rebounded in the short - term, but the LPG's own fundamentals are bearish. After the reduction of tariffs on the US, the import cost decreased, the downstream PDH device operating rate declined, and the port inventory continued to rise [7]. - **策略推荐**: In the long - term, it is mainly anchored to the upstream crude oil, with a bearish outlook. Technically, pay attention to the strong support level of 4,200, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and weak. Short positions can be held. Focus on the range of [4,240 - 4,285] for PG [8]. L - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 19 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - **基本逻辑**: In the short - term, the maintenance loss in May reached a three - year high, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved. However, it is in the traditional demand off - season, and the replenishment intensity is expected to slow down after the phased replenishment. In the medium - term, the high - production cycle suppresses the rebound space [11]. - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities, and focus on the range of [7,200 - 7,350] for L [11]. PP - **行情回顾**: The L - PP09 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton day - on - day [13]. - **基本逻辑**: The overall supply - demand contradiction of polypropylene has not been fundamentally resolved. With the weakening of the short - term positive impact of tariff policies, the market sentiment is still bearish, especially with the arrival of the traditional plastic off - season. The supply is expected to increase in the long - term [14]. - **策略推荐**: The outlook on rebounds is bearish. Focus on the range of [7,080 - 7,155] for PP [14]. PVC - **行情回顾**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 17 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - **基本逻辑**: Next week, domestic maintenance will continue, and supply will increase slightly. Domestic demand is stable, but foreign trade orders and demand atmosphere are expected to weaken, and the inventory reduction speed will slow down. The price is expected to be stable, and the policy expectation may weaken [17]. - **策略推荐**: Participate in the short - term. Focus on the range of [4,950 - 5,050] for V [17]. PX - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the spot price of PX in East China was 6,625 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract oscillated to close at 6,744 (- 18) yuan/ton. The basis in East China was - 119 (+ 18) yuan/ton [18]. - **基本逻辑**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the supply pressure is relieved. The processing difference has improved, but it is still at a low level in the same period of the past five years. The demand side is weak due to the large number of PTA device maintenance. The inventory is high compared to the same period of last year but is at a high level in the past five years [19]. - **策略推荐**: Focus on the range of [6,750 - 6,880] for PX [20]. PTA - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the PTA price in East China was 4,995 (- 35) yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,774 (- 24) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 86 (- 8) yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 221 (- 11) yuan/ton [21]. - **基本逻辑**: The PTA device maintenance is high, and the supply pressure is relieved. The downstream polyester load is high, and the terminal weaving operating rate has stopped falling and rebounded. The inventory has decreased, and the processing fee is neutral with room for improvement [22]. - **策略推荐**: Focus on the range of [4,770 - 4,860] for TA [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,568 (- 3) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,460 (- 1) yuan/ton. The EG6 - 9 spread was 55 (- 5) yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 108 (- 2) yuan/ton [24]. - **基本逻辑**: The recent device maintenance and load reduction have increased, and the supply pressure is expected to be relieved. The arrival volume is low compared to the same period. The demand side is relatively good, with high downstream polyester load and the terminal weaving operating rate stopping falling and rebounding. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the social inventory is in a downward trend [25]. - **策略推荐**: Focus on the range of [4,460 - 4,560] for EG [26]. Glass - **行情回顾**: The spot market quotation decreased, the futures price oscillated weakly, the basis widened, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [28]. - **基本逻辑**: At the macro level, the macro - economic pressure has eased, and the market risk preference and commodity sentiment have recovered. However, the main contradiction in the glass market is the contraction of supply and the decline of demand. The downstream demand is insufficient, and the inventory is concentrated in the upstream and mid - stream. With the arrival of the rainy season off - season, the spot market is weak [29]. - **策略推荐**: Focus on the range of [1,000 - 1,040] for FG [29]. Soda Ash - **行情回顾**: The spot price of heavy soda ash increased, the futures price oscillated weakly, the basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecast remained unchanged [31]. - **基本逻辑**: The supply of soda ash has decreased, which provides some support for the futures price. However, the new capacity release expectation is strong, and the demand is still weak. The current inventory level is still at an absolute high, and the cost center has moved down, which suppresses the futures price [32]. - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to whether there are new drivers after the futures market fully prices in the supply decline. If there is a short - term rebound, it will provide a better opportunity for short - selling. Focus on the range of [1,280 - 1,310] for SA [32]. Methanol - **行情回顾**: On May 16, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,375 (- 50) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,284 (- 36) yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 113 (+ 17) yuan/ton, and the port basis was 91 (- 14) yuan/ton [33]. - **基本逻辑**: The supply pressure of methanol is large, with high device operating rates and expected increases in imports. The demand has improved, with the MTO device operating rate stopping falling. The social inventory has decreased, but the cost support is weak due to the sufficient supply of coal [34]. - **策略推荐**: Focus on the range of [2,260 - 2,310] for MA [35].
中辉期货日刊-20250516
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 02:22
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide a unified industry - wide investment rating but gives individual ratings for each variety such as weak for crude oil and LPG, oscillating for L, PP, PVC, glass, and soda ash,回调 for PX, PTA, and asphalt, bullish for ethylene glycol, bearish for methanol, and cautiously bullish for urea [1] Group 2: Report's Core Views - The overall market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical events (e.g., Iran - US negotiations), supply - demand dynamics, and cost - related factors. Each variety has its own unique fundamentals and price trends [1] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 3.17%, Brent down 2.36%, and SC down 1.38%. The market is worried about increased Iranian crude supply, causing prices to weaken [2][4] - **Basic Logic**: The Iran - US nuclear negotiations made progress, and geopolitical tensions eased, putting pressure on oil prices. The IEA expects global oil supply to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day this year, and demand growth remains relatively stable. US commercial crude and strategic reserves increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, new energy impact, and OPEC+ expansion, oil prices will fluctuate between $55 - $65. In the short - term, although prices are weak, there is support below. It is recommended to hold bull - spread options. SC should be monitored in the range of [455 - 465] [3] LPG - **Market Situation**: Both futures and spot prices of LPG declined. The main contract PG2506 closed at 4301 yuan/ton, down 1.53% [5][6] - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price weakened due to the Iran - US negotiation news. After the reduction of tariffs on the US, the import cost of propane decreased. The downstream PDH device's operating rate declined, and port inventories continued to accumulate [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, its trend is mainly tied to upstream crude oil, which is bearish. Technically, the daily line shows a weak trend. It is recommended to hold short positions. PG should be monitored in the range of [4240 - 4290] [8] L - **Market Situation**: The futures prices of different contracts showed some fluctuations, and the market is trading based on the expectation of export rush [9][10] - **Basic Logic**: It is expected that the overall operating rate of PE downstream industries will increase by 0.30% next week. Some export enterprises' orders have improved. With more planned maintenance of devices in late May and short - term export replenishment support, the market is expected to oscillate. In the medium - term, the high - production cycle restricts the rebound space [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels. L should be monitored in the range of [7230 - 7350] [11] PP - **Market Situation**: Futures prices fluctuated, and the market is also trading based on the expectation of export rush [12][13] - **Basic Logic**: The overall supply - demand contradiction of polypropylene has not been fundamentally resolved. As the short - term positive impact of tariff policies weakens, the market sentiment is bearish. The terminal products have an expectation of export rush, but the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand pattern is weak [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is advisable to take short positions on rebounds. PP should be monitored in the range of [7100 - 7200] [14] PVC - **Market Situation**: The futures price showed a reduction in positions and a rebound, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [15][16] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals of PVC have changed little. Affected by the Sino - US tariff negotiation, the commodity atmosphere has improved. Although new production capacity will be put into operation in the second quarter, the short - term price is firm. The operating rate is slightly declining at a high level, the upper - middle stream inventory is decreasing, and the floor export expectation is improving [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Participate in short - term trading. V should be monitored in the range of [4950 - 5050] [17] PX - **Market Situation**: The spot price in East China remained flat at 6500 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6472 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton [18] - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. However, the demand side is weak as PTA device maintenance is high. The inventory is still high although it has decreased. The fundamentals will continue to improve in May - June, but it is currently following cost fluctuations and experiencing a short - term correction [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX should be monitored in the range of [6710 - 6850] [20] PTA - **Market Situation**: The spot price in East China was 4720 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4582 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton [21][22] - **Basic Logic**: Many PTA devices are under maintenance, relieving the supply - side pressure. The downstream polyester operating rate remains high, and the terminal weaving operating rate is rising from a low level. The inventory is decreasing, and the cost side has some support from the recent rebound in international oil prices [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA should be monitored in the range of [4750 - 4850] [24] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Situation**: The spot price in East China was 4300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4218 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [25][26] - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has relieved the supply - side pressure. The arrival volume is low, but imports exceeded expectations in March. The demand side is good as the downstream polyester load is high, and the terminal weaving is improving. The inventory has slightly decreased [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG should be monitored in the range of [4460 - 4550] [28] Glass - **Market Situation**: The spot market报价 was lowered, and the futures price was weakly oscillating with an enlarged basis and reduced warehouse receipts [29][30] - **Basic Logic**: The main contradiction in the glass market is the contraction of supply and the decline of demand. Although the industry capacity is being cleared, the demand is shrinking faster. The price is close to the coal - based cost line, and further decline is limited, but the recovery depends on policy demand transmission and supply - side cold - repair [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG should be monitored in the range of [1015 - 1045]. It is advisable to exit short positions and wait and see [31] Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The heavy - alkali spot报价 was raised, and the futures price was weakly oscillating with an enlarged basis, reduced warehouse receipts, and unchanged forecasts [33] - **Basic Logic**: Although some devices are under maintenance, the operating rate remains high, and the supply is still in excess. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level, putting pressure on the market [34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA should be monitored in the range of [1310 - 1340]. Pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average in the short - term [34] Methanol - **Market Situation**: The spot price in East China was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2227 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [35][36] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is increasing as previous maintenance devices resume production and overseas imports are expected. The demand side is weak, with MTO device operating rates at a low level and traditional demand in the off - season. The inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weak [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA should be monitored in the range of [2290 - 2340]. Continue to hold short positions [36] Urea - **Market Situation**: The report does not provide specific market situation data for urea [1] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is still large as maintenance devices resume production. The agricultural demand is in a gap period, and the industrial demand is weak. However, fertilizer exports are growing fast this year. The cost is fluctuating slightly, and there is some bottom - support [1] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The overall fundamentals are still loose. Although the export policy is favorable in the short - term, the upward space is limited. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. UR should be monitored in the range of [1880 - 1920] [1] Asphalt - **Market Situation**: The report does not provide specific market situation data for asphalt [1] - **Basic Logic**: The decline in oil prices has increased the downward pressure on asphalt. There are positive factors such as the decline of social inventory and the increase of the operating rate of road - modified and building asphalt, but negative factors include the decline of oil prices and the high crack spread [1] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price range for asphalt is [3450 - 3480] [1]
中辉期货日刊-20250513
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 03:32
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] - L: Sideways [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Soda ash: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Methanol: Bearish/Expand ur - ma spread [1] - Urea: Bullish [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Short - term bullish due to improved macro - environment and peak - season expectations, but upside limited [1][2][3] - LPG: Weakening due to reduced oil - price rebound momentum and lower import costs [1][5][6] - L: Sideways with weak supply and demand, bearish on rallies in the long - term [1][8][10] - PP: Sideways with short - term market - sentiment - driven fluctuations, bearish on rallies in the long - term [1][11][13] - PVC: Sideways with weak fundamentals, short - term wait - and - see [1][14][16] - PX: Bullish in the short - term with improved supply - demand, but may correct [1][17][18] - PTA/PR: Bullish in the short - term with cost - driven fluctuations, may correct after macro - bullish sentiment fades [1][20][22] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish in the short - term with improved supply - demand, may correct [1][24][26] - Glass: Bearish with weak fundamentals, low - level sideways with macro - fundamental game [1][28][29] - Soda ash: Bearish with weak fundamentals, low - level sideways [1][30] - Methanol: Bearish with a loose supply - demand pattern and weak cost support, bearish on rallies [1][32] - Urea: Bullish in the short - term with export - policy support, but watch for short - selling opportunities [1] - Asphalt: Bullish in the short - term with oil - price rebound and increased downstream开工率, but high valuation [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.88%, Brent up 1.64%, and SC up 1.53% [2] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+增产利空 released, Sino - US trade progress and peak - season expectations boost prices, but OPEC+扩产 limits upside. Supply may decrease in Iraq and CPC exports. Demand is expected to increase globally but decline in India. US commercial crude inventory decreased while strategic reserve increased [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term price range is $55 - 65. Short - term, sell bull - spread options. SC focus range is [475 - 495] [4] LPG - **Market Review**: On May 12, PG main contract closed at 4362 yuan/ton, down 0.52%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased [5] - **Basic Logic**: Oil - price rebound weakens, import costs drop, and fundamentals are bearish with increased inventory and decreased PDH开工率 [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term bearish as it follows oil prices. Short - term, short with a light position. PG focus range is [4300 - 4350] [7] L - **Market Review**: L09 main contract rose 1.6%. L主力持仓量 decreased slightly, and L仓单量 remained unchanged [9] - **Basic Logic**: New capacity has been put into operation, and import windows are mostly closed. Demand from the agricultural film industry is weak. Sino - US trade progress improves sentiment, but supply - demand is weak and inventory accumulates. Long - term, bearish on rallies due to new capacity and oil - price decline [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Bearish on rallies. L focus range is [7080 - 7180] [10] PP - **Market Review**: PP09 main contract fell 0.3%. PP主力持仓量 increased, and PP仓单量 decreased slightly [12] - **Basic Logic**: A new PP device has been put into operation, and future PDH device commissioning is to be watched. Tariff easing may increase PDH开工率, but it's the demand off - season. Long - term, bearish on rallies due to new capacity and oil - price decline [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Bearish on rallies. PP focus range is [7000 - 7080] [13] PVC - **Market Review**: V09 main contract fell 0.7%. PVC仓单 increased [15] - **Basic Logic**: A new device was put into operation in January. Supply is high, and demand from the real - estate sector is weak. Exports may weaken. Registration extension leads to increased仓单, and there is no upward drive. Watch for spring - maintenance and macro - policy changes [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term participation. V focus range is [4700 - 4830] [16] PX - **Market Review**: On May 9, PX spot price in East China was 6500 yuan/ton, unchanged. PX09 contract closed at 6472 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton [17] - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, reducing supply pressure. Domestic and overseas devices have various maintenance and restart situations. Demand from PTA devices is weak. Inventory is high but improving. May fundamentals continue to improve, but it follows cost fluctuations [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focus range is [6620, 6750] [19] PTA - **Market Review**: On May 9, PTA spot price in East China was 4720 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. TA09 contract closed at 4582 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton [20][21] - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance reduces supply pressure. Demand from downstream polyester is strong, and terminal weaving开工率 rebounds. Inventory decreases. Short - term, it follows cost fluctuations and is bullish, but may correct after macro - bullish sentiment fades [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA focus range is [4680, 4780] [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On May 9, ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. EG09 contract closed at 4218 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [24][25] - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance eases supply pressure. Import is higher than expected. Demand from downstream polyester is strong, and terminal weaving开工率 rebounds. Inventory decreases slightly. Short - term, it is bullish but may correct [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focus range is [4280, 4400] [27] Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, and the decline of the futures market slowed. Shahe basis widened, and仓单 increased [28] - **Basic Logic**: Macro - policies have limited impact on demand. The market faces supply - demand imbalance with weak demand and inventory accumulation. Price decline is limited, but recovery depends on policy effects and supply reduction [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focus range is [1020, 1060]. Watch the 5 - day moving average. Exit short positions if it breaks through [29] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - soda spot prices increased, and the futures market fluctuated. Basis fluctuated slightly, and仓单 and effective forecasts decreased [30] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure eases slightly due to device maintenance, but supply is still excessive as开工率 remains high. Demand is weak, and inventory is at a high level. Cost center moves down [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focus range is [1300, 1350] [31] Methanol - **Market Review**: On May 9, methanol spot price in East China was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Methanol main 09 contract closed at 2227 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as previous maintenance devices restart and imports are expected. Demand is weak, with MTO开工率 at a low level and traditional demand in the off - season. Inventory accumulates, and cost support is weak [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA focus range is [2250, 2310] [33]
中辉期货日刊-20250430
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 05:09
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Bearish [1] - PP: Weak [1] - PVC: Weak [1] - PX: Bearish [1] - PTA/PTR: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Weak [1] - Soda ash: Sideways [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Urea: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by factors such as trade policy uncertainty, OPEC+ production expansion, and cost fluctuations, with most varieties showing weak or bearish trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Condition**: Overnight international oil prices fell slightly, with WTI down 2.63%, Brent down 2.33%, and domestic SC down 1.23% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Trade policy uncertainty and OPEC+ production expansion lead to weak oil prices, but the approaching trading season strengthens short - term support. Supply and demand factors and inventory changes also affect the market [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, new energy impact, and OPEC+ expansion, oil supply is in surplus, and the price fluctuates between $55 - 65. In the short - term, the price is below the 5 - day moving average, and it's recommended to hold light positions or buy options to hedge risks during the May Day holiday. SC focuses on [470 - 485] [5]. LPG - **Market Condition**: On April 29, the PG main contract closed at 4383 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [7]. - **Basic Logic**: Affected by tariff policies, the import cost of propane rises, but the continuous decline in oil prices drags down the cost, resulting in a weak trend. There are changes in factors such as warehouse receipts, cost - profit, supply, demand, and inventory [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the cost support is weak, and the trend mainly follows oil prices. Technically, it's below the 5 - day moving average. It's recommended to wait and see before the holiday. PG focuses on [4350 - 4420] [9]. L - **Market Condition**: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton day - on - day [11]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has new production capacity, and some import windows are open or about to open. The demand side is at the end of the seasonal peak for agricultural films. The cost of crude oil falls, and the fundamentals are weak. In the long - term, the pressure of new device production and the decline of crude oil make the rebound bearish [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short on rallies. L focuses on [7030 - 7200] [12]. PP - **Market Condition**: The L - PP09 spread decreased by 1 yuan/ton day - on - day [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens, the warehouse receipts decline, and the supply - demand is weak. In the long - term, the pressure of new device production and the decline of crude oil make the rebound bearish [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short - term and go short on rallies in the medium - term. PP focuses on [7030 - 7150] [15]. PVC - **Market Condition**: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton week - on - week [17]. - **Basic Logic**: As the delivery month approaches, the main contract shifts positions, and the market sentiment is weak. The supply side has new device production, and the demand side has seasonal changes. It's recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long on pullbacks [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short - term and go long on pullbacks. V focuses on [4880 - 5020] [18]. PX - **Market Condition**: On April 25, the spot price in East China was 6600 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX09 contract closed at 6230 yuan/ton (+64) [19]. - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the demand - side maintenance is high. Affected by tariffs and OPEC+ production expansion, the expected decline in crude oil prices and high inventory lead to a weakening trend [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focuses on [6150 - 6250] [20]. PTA - **Market Condition**: On April 25, the PTA price in East China was 4490 yuan/ton (+62), and the TA09 contract closed at 4400 yuan/ton (+30) [22]. - **Basic Logic**: The high volume of PTA device maintenance eases supply - side pressure. The downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high. The inventory decreases, and the cost support is limited. It's recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA focuses on [4360 - 4460] [24]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Condition**: On April 25, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4184 yuan/ton (-32), and the EG09 contract closed at 4160 yuan/ton (-19) [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Devices are under planned maintenance, the arrival volume is high, and the import in March exceeded expectations. The demand side is good but expected to weaken, and the inventory is high. The cost support is weak, and it's recommended to go short on rallies [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focuses on [4160 - 4220] [27]. Glass - **Market Condition**: The spot market price was stable, the futures was weakly volatile, the main contract basis widened, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment is cautious due to the trade war and lack of incremental policies. The supply is stable at a low level, the demand has seasonal improvement but is lower than the same period. The upstream inventory accumulates again, and the short - term rebound is suppressed [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on [1080 - 1120] [30]. Soda Ash - **Market Condition**: The heavy - soda ash spot price was raised, the futures was slightly bullish, the basis narrowed, and the warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increased [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The planned maintenance of soda ash enterprises in May may reduce supply, but the over - capacity remains. The downstream demand changes little, and the inventory is still high. The market sentiment warms up, but the supply - demand drive is limited, and the medium - term upward drive is lacking [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focuses on [1335 - 1380] [32]. Methanol - **Market Condition**: On April 25, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2413 yuan/ton (+5), and the main 09 contract closed at 2288 yuan/ton (-1) [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Although the device maintenance reduces the load, the overall supply pressure is still large, and the arrival expectation is likely to be fulfilled. The demand is expected to weaken, the social inventory decreases slightly, and the cost support is weak. It's recommended to go short on rallies [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA focuses on [2255 - 2285] [35].
中辉期货日刊-20250429
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 05:07
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Sideways [1] - L: Bearish [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] - Soda ash: Sideways [1] - Methanol: Bearish [1] - Urea: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The trade policy uncertainty and OPEC+ production increase lead to a weak oil price, while the upcoming trade peak season strengthens the short - term downside support [2]. - LPG follows the oil price for consolidation, with short - term cost support but weak strength [7]. - For L, the high - operation of devices, abundant supply, and weakening demand result in a bearish outlook [10]. - PP shows a short - term support due to high parking ratio and weak supply - demand, but a bearish long - term outlook [13]. - PVC has a cost - supported low - level sideways movement, and short - term wait - and - see is recommended [16]. - PX has an improved April fundamental and is currently fluctuating with cost, showing a bullish sideways trend [18]. - PTA has reduced supply pressure, but the downstream polyester is expected to weaken, with a short - term bullish trend and opportunities to short at high levels [22]. - Ethylene glycol has a high arrival volume and expected weakening demand, with limited cost support and a bearish short - term adjustment [24]. - Glass has a stable low - level supply, seasonal demand improvement, but high inventory restricts the short - term rebound [27]. - Soda ash has a short - term warm sideways movement due to reduced supply, but a bearish mid - term outlook due to new capacity [1]. - Methanol has a large supply pressure, weakening demand, and weak cost support, with a bearish short - term outlook [29]. - Urea has a large supply pressure and weak demand, but fast - growing fertilizer exports, with a bearish outlook and opportunities to go long on pullbacks [33]. - Asphalt has a high crack spread and a bearish rebound, with a weak and sideways cost - end oil price [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined (WTI down 1.54%, Brent down 1.53%), while domestic SC rose 0.06% [2]. - **Supply**: As of April 25, the number of active US oil rigs increased by 2 to 483. Kazakhstan's March oil production decreased by about 3% to 62.7 barrels per day [2]. - **Demand**: In April, Russia's supply of ESPO blended oil to Indian ports increased to about 400,000 tons (about 100,000 barrels per day) [2]. - **Inventory**: As of April 18, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2 million barrels to 443.1 million barrels, and strategic crude oil reserve increased by 5 million barrels to 397.5 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Long - term price range is $55 - 65, short - term is weak, and SC focuses on [480 - 500] [3]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On April 28, the main PG contract closed at 4,395 yuan/ton, down 0.25% [5][6]. - **Supply**: As of April 25, the total LPG commodity volume was 515,500 tons, up 2,300 tons [7]. - **Demand**: As of April 25, the开工 rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil decreased by 3.09pct, 2.18pct, and 0.51pct respectively [7]. - **Inventory**: As of April 25, refinery inventory was 163,200 tons, down 1,000 tons, and port inventory was 2.8402 million tons, up 175,700 tons [7]. - **Strategy**: Long - term cost support is weak, follow the oil price for consolidation, and conduct PG05 - 06 positive spread operation and sell call options. PG focuses on [4350 - 4450] [7]. 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: L09 (main contract) closed at 7,164 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [9]. - **Supply**: New production capacity of 2.08 million tons has been put into operation this year, and the LLDPE, LDPE film, and HDPE film import windows are closed [10]. - **Demand**: The agricultural film season is ending, and demand is gradually weakening [10]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.9% to 530,000 tons [9]. - **Strategy**: Go short at high levels, and L focuses on [7080 - 7200] [10]. 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: PP09 (main contract) closed at 7,112 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [12]. - **Supply**: Baofeng's 1 million tons/year PP device was successfully put into operation in the first quarter, and attention is paid to the commissioning progress of Zhongjing Petrochemical's 1.5 million tons/year PDH device [13]. - **Demand**: Product exports are under pressure due to tariff disturbances [13]. - **Inventory**: PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.4% to 600,000 tons [12]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, mid - term short at high levels, and PP focuses on [7050 - 7150] [13]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: V09 (main contract) closed at 4,989 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [15]. - **Supply**: Xinpu Chemical's 500,000 - ton device was put into operation in January, and the capacity utilization rate is 79% [16]. - **Demand**: The decline in real - estate completion area narrows, and downstream开工率 decreases seasonally [16]. - **Inventory**: PVC仓单 decreased by 0.3% to 29,653 [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, go long on pullbacks, and V focuses on [4920 - 5060] [16]. 3.6 PX - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of PX in East China was 6,600 yuan/ton (flat), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,230 yuan/ton (+64) [17]. - **Supply**: Many domestic and overseas PX devices are under maintenance, with the weekly output of 647,000 tons, down 7,000 tons [18]. - **Demand**: PTA device maintenance is high, and the demand is expected to weaken [18]. - **Inventory**: In March, PX inventory was at a high level in the same period, and the number of warehouse receipts was 1,064, lower than the same period [18]. - **Strategy**: PX focuses on [6220 - 6320] [19]. 3.7 PTA - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,490 yuan/ton (+62), and the TA09 contract closed at 4,400 yuan/ton (+30) [20][21]. - **Supply**: Many PTA devices are under maintenance, with a weekly output of 1.393 million tons, up 55,000 tons [22]. - **Demand**: The downstream polyester is expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high [22]. - **Inventory**: PTA social inventory decreased to 4.804 million tons in March, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [22]. - **Strategy**: TA focuses on [4420 - 4520], and pay attention to shorting at high levels [22]. 3.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,184 yuan/ton (-32), and the EG09 contract closed at 4,160 yuan/ton (-19) [23]. - **Supply**: Many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance, with a high expected arrival volume of 248,000 tons [24]. - **Demand**: The downstream polyester is expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high [24]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased slightly, and port inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy**: EG focuses on [4150 - 4220] [25]. 3.9 Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot market quotation is regionally differentiated, the futures is at a low - level sideways movement, the main contract basis narrows, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases [27]. - **Supply**: The glass supply remains stable at a low level, and the cold - repair plan of manufacturers slows down after the cost decreases [27]. - **Demand**: The demand shows a seasonal improvement but is lower than the same period, and the real - estate industry has not stabilized [27]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory increased by 395,000 heavy boxes to 65.473 million heavy boxes, up 0.61% [27]. - **Strategy**: FG focuses on [1100 - 1140] [27]. 3.10 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The spot market quotation is regionally differentiated, the futures is at a low - level sideways movement [1]. - **Supply**: There are many maintenance plans, and the supply is expected to decrease [1]. - **Demand**: No specific demand - related content mentioned in the provided documents. - **Inventory**: The alkali plant inventory decreases slightly [1]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy content other than the price range in the provided documents. 3.11 Methanol - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,413 yuan/ton (+5), and the main 09 contract closed at 2,288 yuan/ton (-1) [29]. - **Supply**: Domestic and overseas methanol devices are under maintenance, but the supply pressure is still large, and the import is expected to increase in May [29]. - **Demand**: The demand of MTO devices is expected to weaken, and the traditional downstream demand is in the off - season [29]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of methanol decreases slightly to 773,000 tons [29]. - **Strategy**: MA focuses on [2260 - 2310], and go short on rebounds [29][30]. 3.12 Urea - **Market Performance**: On April 25, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,830 yuan/ton (flat), and the main contract closed at 1,757 yuan/ton (-1) [32]. - **Supply**: The maintenance devices are gradually restarted, with a high daily output, and the supply pressure is large [33]. - **Demand**: It is the off - season for agricultural fertilization, and the industrial demand is weak, but fertilizer exports are growing fast [33]. - **Inventory**: The inventory accumulates, with the factory inventory at 1.065 million tons and the port inventory at 117,000 tons [33]. - **Strategy**: The price range of UR is [1760 - 1790], and pay attention to going long on pullbacks [33]. 3.13 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: No specific recent market performance content mentioned other than the price range in the provided documents. - **Supply**: No specific supply - related content mentioned in the provided documents. - **Demand**: No specific demand - related content mentioned in the provided documents. - **Inventory**: Both social and factory inventories are increasing [1]. - **Strategy**: The price range of BU is [3400 - 3500], and go short on rebounds [1].