1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, for each metal, the following outlooks are provided: - Copper: Oscillating [6] - Alumina: High - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term [8] - Aluminum: Range - bound oscillation in the short term [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Range - bound oscillation in the short term, with potential for spread recovery later [12] - Zinc: Oscillating in the short term, with a potential decline in the medium - to - long term [14] - Lead: Oscillating [16] - Nickel: Wide - range oscillation in the short term, hold short positions in the medium - to - long term [21] - Stainless Steel: Range - bound oscillation in the short term [23] - Tin: Oscillating, with potential for increased volatility in August [25] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The weak US dollar continues to support non - ferrous metals, but the weakening demand also needs attention. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar supports prices, but the supply - demand situation is gradually loosening, and the risk of weakening demand is increasing, which exerts negative pressure on base metal prices. In the long term, the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and the supply disturbances of copper, aluminum, and tin still support base metal prices. It is recommended to short copper and zinc on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Sino - US tariff suspension is extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The supply constraint remains, but the demand is marginally weakening. The follow - up focus is on the tariff implementation [6][7]. - **Alumina**: Shanxi Province adjusts the registration authority of some mineral species, and the alumina futures price rises significantly. In the short term, the futures price is dominated by anti - involution sentiment and warehouse receipt issues, with high volatility. The fundamental situation is relatively weak [8]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the consumption quality, and aluminum prices continue to rise. The short - term supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost support is strong, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [12]. - **Zinc**: The price of the black series rebounds again, and zinc prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply is loosening, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the medium - to - long term [14]. - **Lead**: The cost still provides support, and lead prices are oscillating. The supply is expected to increase slightly this week, and the demand is slightly affected by the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [16]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The market sentiment dominates the futures price, and the fundamental situation is marginally weakening. It is recommended to hold short positions in the medium - to - long term [21]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel iron continues to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price goes up. The cost has increased recently, and the follow - up focus is on the demand during the peak season and inventory changes [23]. - **Tin**: The raw material supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The supply is tight, but the demand is marginally weakening in the second half of the year. The price is expected to oscillate, with potential for increased volatility in August [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of various metals in this section, such as copper, alumina, aluminum, etc., but does not provide specific monitoring content.

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-08-12 交易逻辑：有色交易逻辑如下，7月中国进出口贸易数据超预期； 美国7月非农新增就业数据大幅不及预期，5/6月美国就业数据超预期 向下大修，美国7月制造业和非制造业PMI均回落且不及预期，美国衰 退风险在增加；8月欧洲投资者信心指数明显回落，整体来看，美联 储降息预期压制美元指数，这在一定程度上抵消了衰退预期的负面影 响。供需面来看，基本金属供需逐步季节性趋松，国内库存逐步季节 性回升。中短期来看，供需逐步趋松，需求走弱风险在加大，这对基 本金属价格有负面压力，逢高沽空铜锌，长期，国内潜在增量刺激政 策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期， 这对基本金属价格有支撑。 铜观点：海外衰退⻛险抬升，铜价表现承压。 氧化铝观点：仓单延续增加，氧化铝震荡承压。 铝观点：关注消费情况，铝价延续回升。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑较强，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：⿊⾊系价格再度反弹，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：成本仍有⽀撑，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：市场情绪反复，镍价宽幅震荡。 不锈钢观点：镍铁价格持续回升，不锈钢盘⾯上⾏。 锡 ...

Inflation Data Summary - In June 2025, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.6% and up from the previous value of 2.4%[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.3%, matching expectations and higher than the previous month's increase of 0.1%[1] - The core CPI also saw a year-on-year increase to 2.9%, in line with expectations and up from 2.8% previously[1] Economic Implications - The June inflation data provides some relief to the Federal Reserve, although tariff impacts are becoming more pronounced, particularly in clothing and furniture prices[4] - Core CPI has underperformed expectations for five consecutive months, primarily due to declining housing prices and weak automotive demand[4] - The Federal Reserve is likely to consider a rate cut in September, driven by the risk of economic stagnation outweighing inflation concerns[4] Sector-Specific Insights - Energy prices significantly influenced the CPI, with energy CPI rising by 0.9% month-on-month, marking the largest increase of the year[5] - Core services, particularly housing, have weakened, counteracting gains in other service categories, while automotive prices remain depressed[8] - Core goods CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, with notable price rises in clothing (0.4%), furniture (1%), and leisure products (0.8%)[9] Market Dynamics - High interest rates continue to suppress housing demand, while the automotive sector faces challenges from both weak demand and competitive pricing pressures from overseas[8] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is becoming more evident, with over half of companies indicating a willingness to pass on 50%-75% of cost increases to consumers[26]

Inflation Data Overview - In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.6% and up from the previous 2.4%[3] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.3%, matching expectations and higher than the prior 0.1%[3] - Core CPI also saw a year-on-year increase to 2.9%, in line with expectations, and a month-on-month rise of 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The June inflation data provides some relief to the Federal Reserve, but the mixed results raise questions about future interest rate cuts[3] - A September rate cut remains the baseline scenario, although two more inflation reports are pending before the meeting[3] - The current economic environment suggests that risks of stagnation may outweigh inflation concerns, potentially influencing the Fed's decision in September[3] Key Influences on CPI - Energy prices significantly impacted CPI, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, the largest rise this year, while year-on-year energy CPI improved from -3.5% to -0.8%[4] - Core CPI has underperformed expectations for five consecutive months, primarily due to declining housing prices and weak automotive demand[4] Consumer Demand Dynamics - High interest rates are cooling housing demand, while consumer spending is being constrained by previous overconsumption and elevated rates[5] - The automotive sector is experiencing a dual challenge of weak demand and price reductions from both domestic and foreign suppliers, particularly in light of tariff impacts[5] Price Trends in Core Goods - Core goods CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest increase this year, with notable price rises in clothing (0.4%), furniture (1%), and leisure products (0.8%)[6] - The increase in prices for imported goods indicates a faster transmission of tariff impacts compared to previous months[6] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include significant changes in US trade policies and unexpected tariff expansions that could lead to a global economic slowdown[7]

Core Viewpoint - The latest financial data for May indicates a mixed economic outlook, with M1 growth reaching a one-year high but a significant decrease in liquidity, suggesting ongoing issues with consumer and investment sentiment [1][2][4]. Monetary Supply - M1 growth increased by 2.3%, reaching a new high for the year, but a month-on-month decrease of 230.7 billion indicates reduced liquidity for businesses and households [1]. - M2 growth stands at 7.9%, reflecting a stable monetary supply [1]. Social Financing - Social financing increased by 2.3 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion, maintaining an 8.7% growth rate [5]. - Government bonds contributed significantly to social financing, with an increase of 1.4633 trillion, accounting for 64% of the total new social financing [9][10]. Loan Dynamics - New loans in May totaled 620 billion, a decrease of 330 billion year-on-year, marking a historical low for the period [12]. - The reluctance of both businesses and households to borrow is attributed to overcapacity and weak demand, with consumer loans also declining [13][14]. Consumer Subsidies - Local governments are pausing national subsidies due to budget constraints, with over 210 billion of the planned 300 billion already consumed by mid-year [16][17]. - The rapid consumption of subsidy funds raises concerns about the sustainability of consumer incentives [17]. Real Estate Market - The real estate sector shows signs of recovery, with medium to long-term loans for housing increasing by 746 billion, indicating a resurgence in homebuyer demand [19]. - However, the market remains cautious, with a significant portion of potential buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach due to unstable price expectations [21]. Future Outlook - The recovery of the real estate market is expected to occur in phases, starting with stabilizing transaction volumes, followed by improvements in second-hand property sales, and ultimately leading to increased new property sales [24][26][27].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-06-11 弱美元、LME低库存和需求走弱交织，有色 延续震荡 有⾊观点：弱美元、LME低库存和需求⾛弱交织，有⾊延续震荡 交易逻辑：5月中国财新制造业PMI和美国Markit制造业PMI走势偏 弱，同时，美元指数延续弱势；5月28日，美国联邦法院阻止了特朗 普4月2日宣布的关税政策，白宫上诉，整体来看，宏观面略偏正面， 但美国关税预期反复。供需面来看，基本金属供需有所趋松，锌锭表 现的较为明显，本周国内库存整体维持小幅累积。中短期来看，弱美 元、LME低库存和需求走弱交织，有色延续震荡，主要关注结构性机 会，谨慎关注关注铜铝锡短多机会，中长期来看，基本金属需求前景 仍存在不确定性，可关注部分供需偏过剩或者预期过剩品种的逢高沽 空机会。 杨飞 铜观点：美元指数偏弱，铜价⾼位运⾏。 氧化铝观点：现货成交活跃度下降，氧化铝盘⾯震荡。 铝观点：特朗普加码钢铝关税落地，铝价⾼位震荡。 铝合⾦观点：供需⽆突出⽭盾，铝合⾦窄幅波动。 锌观点：现货升⽔维持⾼位，短期锌价下⽅空间有限。 铅观点：成本⽀撑暂稳，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：供需整 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Most commodities are expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short term, with some showing potential for decline or upside. Amid uncertainties in tariffs and changing policies, investors are advised to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to market conditions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - For stock index futures, it's recommended to hold a light position and wait for a clear market direction. Due to high overseas uncertainties during the May Day holiday and low option volatility, consider a double - buy strategy for stock index options before the holiday [1]. - The bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Gold is in short - term oscillation adjustment, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper has decent downstream demand, but there is a risk of price correction due to trade frictions [1]. - Aluminum prices oscillate due to uncertainties in global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina's supply - demand pattern has improved, with limited downside but lack of upward momentum [1]. - Zinc has support from low near - month inventory but faces fundamental suppression, presenting short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices oscillate after bottom - up repair. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowon nickel and beware of policy changes [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see, and the industrial side should focus on policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - Tin has a risk of supply premium disappearing as the复产 expectation in Low - Bang strengthens [1]. Industrial and Energy - Related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a state of oversupply, with demand not improving and inventory pressure not relieved [1]. - Polysilicon's抢装潮 is ending, with demand expected to decline in the second half of the year. There is a need for a rebound after a large short - term decline [1]. - Carbonate lithium has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, with downstream maintaining just - in - time purchases [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil face downward pressure on opening prices due to trade disputes [1]. - Iron ore is under short - term pressure due to tariff policies and market sentiment [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron oscillate, with cost and supply - demand factors at play [1]. - Glass and soda ash face supply - demand imbalances, with prices under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and industrial customers can seize hedging opportunities [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by weather and market sentiment, and it's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [1]. - Cotton prices may be affected by the trend of crude oil and the substitution effect between chemical fiber and cotton [1]. - Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply shortages and domestic high inventory [1]. - Corn may have a correction risk after the hype cools down, with a long - term bullish logic [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly, and M09 is recommended to be bought at low prices [1]. Forestry and Livestock - Pulp is recommended to be short - sold or hedged due to weak cost support and entering the off - season [1]. - Logs have high inventory and no short - term positive factors, expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Pigs have a clear downward expectation in the futures market due to increased supply and lack of downstream highlights [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as tariffs, OPEC + policies, and cost - demand relationships [1]. - Rubber products such as natural rubber and BR rubber oscillate, with weak fundamentals [1]. - PTA is bearish due to device maintenance and weak market sentiment [1]. - Ethylene glycol, styrene, urea, methanol, PE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand and market sentiment factors affecting their price trends [1]. Others - For the container shipping European line, the peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1].

【行情回顾】：隔夜国际油价回落，WTI 下降 1.54%，Brent 下降 1.53%，内盘 SC 上升 0.06%。 【基本逻辑】：核心驱动，贸易政策不确定叠加 OPEC+扩产，油价偏弱，但贸易旺季即将开启，下 方支撑短期增强。供给方面，贝克休斯数据显示，截至 4 月 25 日当周，美国活跃石油钻机数量增加 2 座至 483 座；4 月 23 日，哈萨克斯坦新任圭亚那能源部周四公布数据显示，该国 3 月石油产量较 上月下降约 3%至 62.7 万桶/日，一季度石油产量平均为 63.1 万桶/日，同比增长 3%；能源部长表示， 在决定石油产量水平时，将优先考虑国家利益，而非 OPEC 及其盟友。需求方面，贸易商数据显示， 4 月份俄罗斯对印度港口 ESPO 混合油供应量已增至约 40 万吨（约合 10 万桶/日）。库存方面，截至 4 月 18 日当周，美国商业原油库存增加 20 万桶至 4.431 亿桶，战略原油储备增加 50 万桶至 3.975 亿桶，汽油库存减少 450 万桶至 2.295 亿桶，馏分油库存减少 240 万桶至 1.069 亿桶。 【策略推荐】中长期走势：关税战争、新能源冲击，叠加 OPE ...