（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经法兰克福11月14日电 欧盟统计局14日发布的初步快报数据显示，2025年第三季度，欧元区和 欧盟经济均实现温和增长。经季节性调整，欧元区国内生产总值（GDP）环比增长0.2%，欧盟GDP环 比增长0.3%。 数据显示，与2025年第二季度相比，欧元区0.2%的环比增幅略高于前值的0.1%，欧盟0.3%的环比增幅 也高于前值的0.2%。 与去年同期相比，2025年第三季度欧元区GDP同比增长1.4%，欧盟GDP同比增长1.6%。 就业市场方面，第三季度欧元区就业人数环比增长0.1%，与上一季度持平；欧盟就业人数环比增长 0.2%，略高于前值的0.1%。与去年同期相比，欧元区就业人数同比增长0.5%，欧盟同比增长0.6%。 从成员国数据看，主要经济体表现出现分化。德国和意大利的季度环比增长率均为0.0%，显示经济陷 入停滞；而法国（+0.5%）和西班牙（+0.6%）则实现了较为稳健的增长。 ...

11月14日，香港特区政府统计处公布，本地生产总值在2025年第3季较上年同期实质上升3.8%，而上季的升幅为3.1%。经季节性调整后，本地生产总值 在2025年第3季较上季上升0.7%。 图2.1-C：货品进口（离岸价）及服务输入 - 按年实质变动百分率 +7.0 +6.0 生产总值组成部分 – 以2023年环比物国计算 – 按年变动 +5.0 +4.0 +3.0 +2.0 +1.0 0.0 -1.0 –2.0 1-2025r 3–2025r 4-2024r 2–2025r 3-2024r 季 / 年 ❤ 私人消费开支 ● 政府消费开支 ❤ 本地固定资本形成总额 图2.1-B：货品出口（离岸价）及服务输出 - 按年实质变动百分率 +14.0 +12.0 生产总值组成部分 – 以2023年环比物量计算 – 按年变动 +10.0 +8.0 分率 +6.0 +4.0 +2.0 0.0 3-2024r 4-2024r 1-2025r 2-2025r 3-2025r 季 | 年 图2.1-A : 私人消费开支、政府消费开支及本地固定资本形成总额 - 按年实质变动百分率 +14.0 +12.0 地生产总值组成部分 – ...

每经AI快讯，11月14日，马来西亚三季度GDP终值同比增长5.2%，预估为增长5.2%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea (BOK) is balancing the need for monetary stimulus with the risks posed by the property market, which is viewed as a potential crisis point. The BOK is cautious about interest rate cuts due to their potential impact on housing prices, particularly in metropolitan areas like Seoul [1][4][6]. Monetary Policy and Economic Growth - The BOK acknowledges that property prices, especially in metropolitan areas, are crucial for financial stability and that price stability is a key mandate [2][3]. - Current inflation is around 2%, meeting the BOK's price stability goal, but the focus is now shifting towards financial stability and the implications of interest rate cuts on housing prices [3][4]. - The BOK is considering the trade-off between stimulating the economy through rate cuts and the potential overheating of the property market [3][5]. Government Coordination and Long-term Measures - The BOK believes that monetary policy alone cannot address the housing crisis and emphasizes the need for coordinated government policies to manage the property sector effectively [4][5]. - There is an expectation for the government to implement long-term measures to increase housing supply and stabilize the market [5][6]. Economic Forecasts and Growth Rates - The BOK's growth forecast for the current year is 4.9%, which is below potential GDP, with a projected growth rate of 1.6% for the following year [7][8]. - A new economic forecast is expected to be released soon, which may lead to adjustments in monetary policy based on updated data [8][14]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is reacting to both domestic and international factors, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's decisions and global economic conditions [10][11]. - There is concern that rising bond yields could disrupt the monetary transmission mechanism, necessitating potential measures from the BOK [12][13]. Trade Relations and Economic Stability - The recent trade deal with the U.S. is viewed positively, as it aims to reduce uncertainties regarding tariffs and enhance investment [15][16]. - The BOK is optimistic about the potential for joint ventures that leverage the strengths of both the U.S. and Korean economies [16]. Currency and Exchange Rate Concerns - The Korean won has been weak against other Asian currencies, influenced by various factors including stock price volatility and U.S. economic conditions [17][18]. - The BOK is monitoring the exchange rate closely, noting that domestic investment abroad is affecting currency stability [21][23]. Stock Market Valuation and Risks - Despite recent increases in stock prices, particularly in the semiconductor sector, the BOK does not view the overall market as significantly overvalued compared to other countries [25][26]. - There are concerns about the volatility in the stock market, especially regarding high-tech stocks, which could pose risks for domestic retail investors [27][28]. Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties are identified as significant risks to the Korean economy, which is heavily export-oriented and reliant on high-tech sectors [42][43].

Core Insights - Dubai's GDP grew by 4.4% in the first half of 2025, reaching 241 billion dirhams, driven primarily by trade, transportation, and tourism [1] Economic Growth by Sector - The construction sector experienced a growth of 8.5% [1] - The real estate sector saw a growth of 7% [1] - The financial and insurance sector grew by 6.7% [1] - The information and communication sector increased by 5.3% [1] - The health and social work activities sector was the fastest-growing, with a remarkable growth of 20% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has lasted for 39 days, and highlights the efforts of bipartisan negotiations in the Senate to reach an agreement to reopen the government and address funding issues [1][4]. Group 1: Negotiation Progress - Bipartisan negotiations in the Senate have shown positive signals, with Republican leader John Thune expressing optimism about reaching an agreement to temporarily reopen the government and introduce three long-term funding bills [2][3]. - The Senate plans to hold a rare meeting on Sunday to continue discussions, although no formal agreement or complete funding bill text has been released as of Saturday [2][3]. Group 2: Impact of the Shutdown - The shutdown has led to significant disruptions, including severe flight delays and cancellations due to a shortage of air traffic controllers, with over 1,000 flights canceled and more than 4,800 delayed on a single day [5]. - The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which supports 42 million Americans, has halted benefits for the first time in its 60-year history, exacerbating difficulties for low-income families [6]. - The ongoing shutdown is expected to slow down the U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter, with consumer confidence dropping to its lowest level since June 2022, indicating growing concerns about the economic impact of the shutdown [6][7].

Core Insights - Indonesia's GDP growth for Q3 2025 is reported at 5.04%, aligning closely with market expectations of 5% but slightly lower than the previous quarter's growth of 5.12% [1] - Key drivers of economic growth include exports and government spending, with exports of goods and services increasing by 9.91% year-on-year [1] - Fixed asset investment and private consumption growth have slowed, with fixed asset investment growing by 5.04% and household final consumption expenditure increasing by 4.89% [1] Economic Performance - The trade surplus for September reached $4.34 billion, marking 65 consecutive months of surplus since May 2020 [1] - The quarterly economic growth rate is 1.43%, with the electricity and gas sector showing the highest growth at 5.42% [1] - Other sectors such as construction and manufacturing also showed positive growth, while public administration and financial services experienced contraction [1] Government Outlook - The Indonesian government maintains its GDP growth target for the year at 5.2%, supported by sound fiscal policies and expectations of loose monetary policy [2] - The Finance Minister has set a target for Q4 growth to exceed 5.5% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is likely to end around the second week of November, while also warning that key economic data releases will be delayed [1][2][6]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates that the current government shutdown is approaching the record duration of 35 days set in 2018-2019, but believes the end is closer than the beginning [3]. - The prolonged shutdown is partly due to unconventional measures taken by the Trump administration, which has utilized unspent funds from the previous year to pay military salaries, temporarily alleviating some tensions [3]. - Key pressure points, such as air traffic controllers and airport security personnel missing their first full payday on October 28, are increasing the risk of travel delays, which historically have been strong catalysts for government reopening [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Federal Reserve Decisions - The shutdown has disrupted the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) payments, leading to delays in benefits despite court rulings allowing emergency fund usage [4]. - Congressional staff salaries are also affected, which may prompt lawmakers to expedite negotiations [5]. - Political events, such as elections on November 4 and Congress's planned recess after November 7, could create incentives for reaching an agreement before these dates [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Predictions - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup both express optimism that the government shutdown will end within two weeks, which is crucial for the Federal Reserve's data-driven decision-making [8]. - If the government reopens around mid-November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may take several days to release the delayed September employment report, with the November employment and CPI reports potentially facing a one-week delay [9][10]. - Citigroup maintains its forecast for consecutive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December, January, and March, contingent on the reopening of the government and the subsequent data recovery [11][12]. Group 4: Economic Cost of the Shutdown - Goldman Sachs estimates that if the shutdown lasts about six weeks, it could reduce the annualized real GDP growth for Q4 2025 by 1.15 percentage points due to federal employee furloughs, leading to a downward revision of Q4 GDP growth to 1.0% [13]. - However, this impact is expected to be temporary, with a projected GDP growth boost of 1.3 percentage points in Q1 2026 as furloughed employees return and federal procurement shifts from Q4 to Q1 [13].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the ongoing partial government shutdown in the U.S. is likely to end within two weeks, which is crucial for the data-driven decision-making of the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Outlook - Goldman Sachs indicates that the shutdown, which is approaching the record duration of 35 days from 2018-2019, is nearing its end, with a likely resolution around the second week of November [2][3]. - The prolonged shutdown is attributed to unconventional measures taken by the Trump administration, such as utilizing unspent funds from the previous year, but this temporary relief is diminishing [2]. - Key pressure points, including missed paychecks for air traffic controllers and airport security personnel, are increasing the urgency for Congress to reach a compromise [2]. Group 2: Impact on Federal Reserve Decisions - The duration of the shutdown is seen as a critical variable influencing the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in December [1][4]. - If the government reopens by mid-November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may take additional days to release delayed employment reports, which could affect the timing of key economic data releases [4]. - Citigroup analysts express growing confidence that the government will reopen soon, allowing the Fed to receive multiple employment reports before its December meeting, potentially supporting a 25 basis point rate cut [4]. Group 3: Economic Consequences of the Shutdown - Goldman Sachs estimates that if the shutdown lasts about six weeks, it could reduce the annualized real GDP growth for Q4 2025 by 1.15 percentage points, leading to a downward revision of the GDP growth forecast to 1.0% [5]. - The report suggests that the economic impact of the shutdown is likely to be temporary, with a rebound expected in Q1 2026 as furloughed employees return to work [5].

据欧盟统计局初步数据，2025年第三季度，欧盟GDP同比增长1.5%，环比增长0.3%；欧元区GDP 同比增长1.3%，环比增长0.2%。 （原标题：欧盟第三季度GDP同比增长1.5%） ...